Universal Pictures’ billion dollar franchise keeps rolling along as The Fate of the Furious parks into multiplexes on Easter Weekend. The eighth (yes, eighth) street racing action spectacle finds Straight Outta Compton director F. Gary Gray taking over behind the camera. Fate finds the majority of thespians associated with the series returning – Vin Diesel, Dwayne Johnson, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Ludacis, Jason Statham, Kurt Russell, and Nathalie Emmanuel. We also have a pair of Oscar winners joining the mix with Charlize Theron and Helen Mirren, as well as Scott Eastwood (whose dad has won some Oscars). Of course, this is the first picture (excluding 2006’s Tokyo Drift) without Paul Walker, who died during the filming of Furious 7.
When Diesel and Walker returned to the franchise in 2009’s Fast and Furious, it sparked a box office resurgence that’s never let up. That fourth entry debuted to $70 million with an overall $155M domestic haul. Follow-up Fast Five in 2011 opened to $86 million ($209M eventual tally). 2013’s Fast & Furious 6 made $97 million out of the gate and $238M eventually. And 2015’s Furious 7 easily set the high mark with a $147 million premiere and $353M overall.
The grosses of Furious 7 were likely (and sadly) expanded due to it being Walker’s last on-screen appearance. Therefore it stands to reason that Fate probably won’t reach the heights of that predecessor. That said, this looks to be a franchise that is still going strong and it would be surprising if it didn’t post the second largest bow thus far.
I’ll predict the fate of this is an opening gross in the low to mid $120M range.
The Fate of the Furious opening weekend prediction: $122.7 million
Well, hello everyone! It’s Thursday and my first Oscar predictions of the new year have rolled in…
In the past two weeks we’ve seen the Golden Globes occur, which showered its love upon La La Land. We’ve had BAFTA and Producers Guild nominations (that one produced a surprise nod for Deadpool and puts the comic book pic in the top 20 for the firs time). And the Director Guild announced their five nominees this morning, which exactly matches my picks here. We’ve seen pictures (in my estimation) increase their chances (Arrival, Hidden Figures) and others fall a bit (Silence).
On Thursday the 19th, I will make my final round of Thursday predictions and on Sunday the 22nd – my “final” final predictions prior to the announcement on January 24th.
Here’s how I see it all right now…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 7)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Fences (PR: 4)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Silence (PR: 6)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 12)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Jackie (PR: 14)
15. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
16. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 16)
18. Patriots Day (PR: 17)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
7. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Paterson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
8. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
5. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
9. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
9. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Fences(PR: 3)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. Silence (PR: 5)
10. Elle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. Toni Erdmann (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Zootopia (PR: 9)
10. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feautre
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 5)
7. Finding Dory (PR: 6)
8. Your Name (PR: 9)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
April and the Extraordinary World
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. Gleason (PR: 4)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. 13th (PR: 3)
5. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Ivory Game (PR: 9)
7. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 10)
10. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: 5)
7. Tanna (PR: 8)
8. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
9. Paradise (PR: 7)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Arrival (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
7. Silence (PR: 6)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Live by Night (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Alice Through the Looking Glass
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
4. Arrival (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Silence (PR: 5)
8. Lion (PR: 7)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Deadpool (PR: 3)
3. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. Suicide Squad (PR: 4)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 6)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 7)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jackie (PR: 5)
8. The BFG (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hidden Figures
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
5. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 4)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
9. “Faith” from Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 8)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
9. Allied (PR: 6)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
5. Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 6)
7. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 7)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Allied (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Captain America: Civil War
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 9)
9. Deadpool (PR: 10)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Allied
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 5)
7. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 10)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 8)
9. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 7)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
That equates to the following number of nominations for each film:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea
6 Nominations
Lion, Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Florence Foster Jenkins, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Hell or High Water, Jackie
2 Nominations
Captain Fantastic, Nocturnal Animals, Toni Erdmann, Moana, Silence, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Elle, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, The Little Prince, I Am Not Your Negro, Gleason, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Cameraperson, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Allied, Love & Friendship, Deadpool, Star Trek Beyond, Trolls, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange.
We have reached my final Oscar predictions post of 2016! There will be likely be four more posts: 3 Thursday editions (January 5, 12, 19) and a final one on Monday, January 23rd before the nominations are revealed on Tuesday, January 24th.
Per usual, I’m listing 20 Best Picture possibilities and ten in all the other categories.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Fences (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Silence (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
13. Sully (PR: 12)
14. Jackie (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
17. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: 19)
20. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 5)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 8)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 6)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)
10. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 3)
3. Fences (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 9)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Toni Erdmann (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Zootopia (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eye in the Sky
Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 7)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Your Name (PR: 10)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 1)
2. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
3. 13th (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 5)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 4)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 7)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
10. Weiner (PR: 9)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 2)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
4. A Man Called Ove (PR: 5)
5. The King’s Choice (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 4)
7. Paradise (PR: 8)
8. Tanna (PR: 7)
9. It’s Only the End of the World (PR: 9)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 8)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 4)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 8)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
8. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Alice Through the Looking Glass (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Silence (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)
7. Lion (PR: 5)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
9. Sully (PR: 7)
10. Jackie (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Deadpool (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
4. Suicide Squad (PR: 3)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: 7)
6. The Dressmaker (PR: 5)
7. Hail, Caesar! (PR: 6)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 2)
4. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Jackie (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
7. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 7)
9. The BFG (PR: 9)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Moana
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 4)
4. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 8)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 3)
7. “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 7)
8. “The Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)
9. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 4)
5. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 7)
9. Live by Night (PR: 6)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
10. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Deadpool
Doctor Strange
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: 7)
7. Allied (PR: 8)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 9)
9. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
10. Deadpool (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. The BFG (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
7. Captain America: Civil War (PR: 8)
8. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 7)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 9)
That leaves us with the following nomination breakdown:
14 Nominations
La La Land
8 Nominations
Moonlight, Arrival
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Lion, Silence
5 Nominations
Hacksaw Ridge
4 Nominations
Fences, Jackie, Florence Foster Jenkins
3 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals, Moana, Deepwater Horizon
1 Nomination
Loving, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, My Life as a Zucchini, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, 13th, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The King’s Choice, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Deadpool, Sing Street, Rules Don’t Apply, Sully, The Jungle Book, Doctor Strange, The BFG.
That’ll do it for now. See ya with the predictions next year!
We are moving closer and closer to Oscar nominations being out and there’s plenty of precursor action happening, etc…
Some of the categories, including Best Foreign Language Film (with its list whittled down to nine), Makeup and Hairstyling (seven possibles) and Visual Effects (ten possibilities). All in all, this last predictions posts before Christmas gives my take on where all the races stand as things (sort of) become a bit clearer.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 6)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
6. Fences (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 11)
12. Sully (PR: 13)
13. Jackie (PR: 12)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 14)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 16)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
18. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
19. Captain Fantastic (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
8. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
10. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
7. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Adam Driver, Paterson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, Gold
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 5)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Hall, Christine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
7. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 6)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
9. Loving (PR: 8)
10. Sully (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 3)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 6)
7. Jackie (PR: 7)
8. Zootopia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)
10. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
I, Daniel Blake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 2)
3. Moana (PR: 3)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 7)
7. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 8)
9. Sausage Party (PR: 10)
10. Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Trolls
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 2)
2. 13th (PR: 1)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 3)
4. Cameraperson (PR: 6)
5. Gleason (PR: 4)
Other Possibilties
6. Life, Animated (PR: 5)
7. Fire at Sea (PR: 9)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 8)
9. Weiner (PR: 7)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. The Salesman (PR: 3)
3. Land of Mine (PR: 4)
4. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: Not Ranked)
5. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. The King’s Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Tanna (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Paradise (PR: Not Ranked)
9. It’s the Only the End of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Neruda
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
Julieta
Ma’Rosa
The Ardennes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Jackie (PR: 5)
9. Hell or High Water (PR: 8)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Love & Friendship (PR: 4)
4. Allied (PR: 3)
5. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
8. Silence (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
5. Lion (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Silence (PR: 3)
7. Sully (PR: 6)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jackie (PR: 10)
10. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 2)
3. Suicide Squad (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
4. Deadpool (PR: 5)
5. The Dressmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Hail, Caesar! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Man Called Ove (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jackie
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hacksaw Ridge
Love & Friendship
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 7)
3. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)
4. Lion (PR: 2)
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Jackie (PR: 3)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moana (PR: 4)
9. The BFG (PR: 10)
10. The Jungle Book (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “Letters to the Free” from 13th (PR: 4)
4. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
5. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 5)
7. “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls (PR: 6)
8. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: 7)
9. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 10)
10. “The Great Beyond” from Sausage Party (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po
“I See Victory” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 5)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Allied
Love & Friendship
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. La La Land (PR: 2)
4. Sully (PR: 4)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Allied
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 4)
5. Arrival (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 7)
8. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Patriots Day (PR: 8)
10. Deadpool (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 2)
3. Arrival (PR: 3)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 6)
7. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Captain America: Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deepwater Horizon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sully
Star Trek Beyond
Deadpool
A Monster Calls
That gives you a current nomination breakdown as follows:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
8 Nominations
Moonlight
7 Nominations
Lion
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Silence
4 Nominations
Fences, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3 Nominations
Jackie, Hidden Figures, Florence Foster Jenkins
2 Nominations
Sully, 20th Century Women, Hell or High Water, Moana, 13th, The Jungle Book
1 Nomination
Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Cameraperson, Gleason, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, A Man Called Ove, Love & Friendship, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it again next Thursday with my final predictions of the year!
Gavin Hood’s EyeintheSky succeeds as a tense and strongly acted thriller which presents a moral test to the audience without being preachy. That’s a compliment to screenwriter Guy Hibbert for not feeling the need to bash us over the head with whatever his personal politics might be. We don’t know and don’t really need to.
The subject of drone warfare and its prevalence in recent conflicts is one that audiences will bring their own leanings to. This film presents a scenario in a matter of fact manner with characters on different sides of the fence. That situation is in the country of Kenya where a trio of high value targets are in the same location. The British government is in charge of deciding how to kill or capture them and many of the shots are being called by iron willed Colonel Powell (Helen Mirren). Her chain of command is superseded by fellow soldier General Benson (Alan Rickman in his second to last role). Their experience on the ground makes them simpatico when it comes to decisions, but they’re in a constant morass of government officials kicking the can up the chain.
It isn’t long before the capture order becomes a kill order and it’s an American Air Force pilot (Aaron Paul) tasked with dropping the drone from his base in Nevada. There’s one significant complication: a little girl is selling bread right outside the target zone. The question of her being likely collateral damage weigh on the conscience of our characters to varying degrees.
There are moments in the Sky that can’t help but be somewhat humorous even considering the potentially tragic circumstances, as many of the people shown can’t bring themselves to make any final decision. You may not feel like you should be amused by it, but there are times where it feels like the intent. This also extends to small moments where real life gets in the way of those making these massive judgment calls, from children’s toy shopping for one to a bout of food poisoning for another.
The acting is all first-rate with special credit to the always dependable Mirren and Rickman, whose characters disdain for their higher-ups indecisiveness is barely bubbling under the surface. When Eye concludes, it has managed to take the time to lay out the pros and cons of each momentous decision. Yet it invites us to make our judgment call on whether it was all worth it. In this case, that’s the sign of some filmmakers respecting their audience and successfully keeping us enthralled throughout.
Well, folks, it’s been two weeks since I made my last Oscar predictions and a lot has happened in that time period. Both the Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been released, in addition to more critics association bestowing of honors.
The events of the last couple of weeks have led me to this conclusion: La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea are the current hot trio for Best Picture. There was the fascinating omission of La La for a SAG Best Ensemble Award. While I still believe it’s the front runner for the Academy, if it won it would be the first picture to do so without being nominated for the SAG race since 1995’s Braveheart.
Both SAG and Golden Globe weren’t kind to Martin Scorsese’s Silence, yet I still think it manages to get in the Picture race and nominate its director. Both organizations had their share of shocker nods – for SAG it was Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train in Actress as opposed to Annette Bening in 20th Century Women. For the Globes, it was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s getting a nom for Nocturnal Animals in Supporting Actor instead of his more expected costar Michael Shannon.
Here’s where I have all the races standing currently. Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Fences (PR: 5)
6. Lion (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 7)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 12)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 10)
11. Loving (PR: 9)
12. Jackie (PR: 11)
13. Sully (PR: 13)
14. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 15)
16. Patriots Day (PR: 14)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Live by Night (PR: 17)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
7. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 6)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 5)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Issey Ogata, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Silence
Liam Neeson, Silence
Stephen Henderson, Fences
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 3)
3. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
4. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. The Lobster (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 8)
8. Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. I, DanielBlake (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Moonlight and Loving – *moved to Adapted Screenplay
Patriots Day
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked, was moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Fences (PR: 1)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 2)
5. Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. HacksawRidge (PR: 7)
7. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)
8. Loving (Not Ranked – previously listed in Original Screenplay)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. Sully (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Elle
Indignation
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Zootopia (PR: 1)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings (PR: 3)
3. Moana (PR: 2)
4. The Red Turtle (PR: 4)
5. Finding Dory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. The Little Prince (PR: 6)
7. My Life as a Zucchini (PR: 8)
8. April and the Extraordinary World (PR: 7)
9. Trolls (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sausage Party (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Miss Hokusai
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. 13th (PR: 1)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (PR: 5)
3. O.J.: Made in America (PR: 2)
4. Gleason (PR: 3)
5. Life, Animated (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Cameraperson (PR: 7)
7. Weiner (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Eagle Huntress (PR: 6)
9. Fire at Sea (PR: 8)
10. The Ivory Game (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sharon Jones
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees
1. Toni Erdmann (PR: 1)
2. Elle (PR: 4)
3. The Salesman (PR: 6)
4. Land of Mine (PR: 3)
5. Fire at Sea (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
6. Neruda (PR: 10)
7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (PR: 9)
8. Julieta (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ma’Rosa (PR: 7)
10. The Ardennes (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Man Called Ove
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Jackie (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 7)
8. Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
10. Live by Night (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
The Jungle Book
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Allied (PR: 6)
4. Love & Friendship (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Live by Night (PR: 4)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Silence (PR: 5)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Fences (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Fences
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Lion (PR: 4)
8. Manchester by the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fences (PR: 10)
10. Jackie (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Hell or High Water
Live by Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees
1. Jackie (PR: 1)
2. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 7)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 3)
5. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Suicide Squad (PR: 8)
7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)
9. Doctor Strange (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
The BFG
Hidden Figures
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 4)
4. Moana (PR: 5)
5. NocturnalAnimals (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The BFG (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Hacksaw Ridge
Manchester by the Sea
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees
1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land (PR: 1)
2. “We Know the Way” from Moana (PR: 2)
3. “City of Stars” from La La Land (PR: 3)
4. “Letter to the Free” from 13th (PR: 7)
5. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls (PR: 6)
7. “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po (PR: 4)
9. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures (PR: 5)
10. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Runnin” from Hidden Figures
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Live by Night (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Fences (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Allied (PR: 10)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
10. Love & Friendship (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees
1. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 1)
2. La La Land (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 4)
4. Sully (PR: 9)
5. The Jungle Book (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 8)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 5)
9. Passengers (PR: 10)
10. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Silence
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 2)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 5)
4. Deepwater Horizon (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
6. The Jungle Book (PR: 6)
7. Sully (PR: 4)
8. Patriots Day (PR: 3)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Passengers (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees
1. The Jungle Book (PR: 1)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (PR: 3)
3. Arrival (PR: 6)
4. Doctor Strange (PR: 2)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. The BFG (PR: 7)
7. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Trek Beyond (PR: 8)
9. Deadpool (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Monster Calls (PR: 4)
Dropped Out:
Passengers
Captain America: Civil War
That leaves the following breakdown for nominations:
14 Nominations
La La Land
9 Nominations
Arrival
7 Nominations
Moonlight
6 Nominations
Manchester by the Sea, Silence, Jackie, Hacksaw Ridge
5 Nominations
Lion
4 Nominations
Fences
3 Nominations
Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2 Nominations
Hidden Figures, Sully, Hell or High Water, Elle, 13th, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, The Jungle Book, 20th Century Women, Nocturnal Animals
1 Nomination
Captain Fantastic, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Red Turtle, Finding Dory, I Am Not Your Negro, O.J.: Made in America, Gleason, Life, Animated, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, Land of Mine, Fire at Sea, Allied, Love & Friendship, Star Trek Beyond, Rules Don’t Apply, Live by Night, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange.
And there you have it, folks! Updated predictions will be up next Thursday. Stay tuned…
OK – stop rolling your eyes. When Collateral Beauty (out Friday) had its trailers unveiled months ago, it was not out of the question that the film could receive some awards chatter. After all, the cast is made up of multiple Oscar winners and nominees – Will Smith, Edward Norton, Helen Mirren, Kate Winslet, and Keira Knightley. Maybe its director David Frankel (who’s had some hits with The Devil Wears Prada and Marley & Me) would enter a new phase of his career that included Academy attention.
So it wasn’t unreasonable to include the Picture, the Lead Actor with Mr. Smith, and supporting players like Norton and Mirren in the realm of possibility for nominations. Yet there was also a general feeling from the trailers that perhaps it was trying a bit too hard. Reviews out today seem to confirm that notion. Bottom line? Collateral Beauty won’t get any Oscar nods.
Interestingly, a number of critical write-ups have called it the Hollywood version of Manchester by the Sea, which also deals with the heavy issue of losing a child. Those reviews haven’t exactly meant it as a compliment. While Manchester is poised for many nominations (including Picture), Beauty‘s best hope now is to connect with audiences. At least its costar Naomie Harris looks certain to be recognized, but it’ll be for Moonlight and not this.
The most visible Oscar precursor is unveiled tomorrow when the Golden Globe nominations come out. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association divides its Picture and lead acting races into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Additionally, it doesn’t split the screenplay race into Adapted and Original like the Oscars do.
Tonight on the blog, I am giving you my estimates for what and who will be nominated at the Globes, along with picking an alternate and a potential surprise in these races.
Let’s get to it!
BESTPICTURE (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
Fences
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Jackie
Potential Surprise: Fences not getting a nod, allowing Jackie or Lion or HacksawRidge to get in.
BESTPICTURE (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
FlorenceFosterJenkins
LaLaLand
TheLobster
RulesDon’tApply
20thCenturyWomen
Alternate: Hail, Caesar!
Potential Surprise: CaptainFantastic managing to get recognized.
BESTDIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
Damien Chazelle, LaLaLand
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, ManchesterbytheSea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Alternate: Denzel Washington, Fences
Potential Surprise: Pablo Larrain getting a nod for Jackie.
BESTACTOR (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, HacksawRidge
Tom Hanks, Sully
Denzel Washington, Fences
Alternate: Andrew Garfield, Silence – will be interesting to see which pic he’s nominated for.
Potential Surprise: Michael Keaton landing a nom for TheFounder, which could significantly boost his Oscar talk.
BESTACTOR (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Warren Beatty, RulesDon’tApply
Colin Farrell, TheLobster
Ryan Gosling, LaLaLand
Hugh Grant, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Viggo Mortensen, CaptainFantastic
Alternate: Adam Driver, Paterson
Potential Surprise: Grant not being nominated, which would essentially kill his slimming chances for a Supporting Actor Oscar nod.
BESTACTRESS (DRAMA)
Predicted Nominees
Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, MissSloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Alternate: Rachel Weisz, Denial
Potential Surprise: Hearing Rebecca Hall’s name called for the little seen Christine.
BESTACTRESS (MUSICALORCOMEDY)
Predicted Nominees
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Annette Bening, 20thCenturyWomen
Susan Sarandon, TheMeddler
Emma Stone, LaLaLand
Meryl Streep, FlorenceFosterJenkins
Alternate: Sally Field, MyNameisDoris
Potential Surprise: Hailee Steinfeld sneaking in for the critically lauded TheEdge of Seventeen.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Lucas Hedges, ManchesterbytheSea
Issey Ogata, Silence
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, NocturnalAnimals
Alternate: Mykelti Williamson, Fences
Potential Surprise: There could be a lot in this race, but let’s go with Aaron Eckhart getting recognized for Sully or BleedforThis.
BESTSUPPORTINGACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Viola Davis, Fences
Greta Gerwig, 20thCenturyWomen
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Michelle Williams, ManchesterbytheSea
Alternate: Helen Mirren, EyeintheSky
Potential Surprise: Molly Shannon’s small indie work in OtherPeople making the cut.
BESTSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
Arrival
LaLaLand
ManchesterbytheSea
Moonlight
Silence
Alternate: Fences
Potential Surprise: Well, predicting Fences gets left off is a bit of a surprise, so let’s go with that.
I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did with these predictions. Until then…
After headlining the summer comic book hit Suicide Squad, Will Smith switches to drama mode in the holiday season with Collateral Beauty. Out next weekend, the pic casts the Fresh Prince as a father who loses his child and begins writing letters to events and feelings such as Love, Death, and Time. It turns out those things are embodied by real people and some of them are famous actors. Costars include Edward Norton, Kate Winslet, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Naomie Harris, and Michael Pena. David Frankel, who’s had his hits (The Devil Wears Prada, Marley & Me) and misses (The Big Year anyone?), directs.
The trailers for Beauty leave no doubt that this aims to be a tearjerker appealing to an adult (and probably more female) crowd. Word of mouth could cause this to play well throughout the Christmas season. For its opening, I don’t anticipate anything higher than to low to possibly mid teens. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is opening against it and I think it’s a rather safe bet it will dominate the charts and possibly siphon away some of the females Beauty is looking to attract.
Though they are certainly not apples to apples comparisons, I could actually see this performing similarly to last year’s Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters. That pic also opened against the Star Wars franchise (in the form of The Force Awakens) at $13.9 million and subsequently managed to perform admirably from weekend to weekend. I’ll predict this falls a couple million under that.
Collateral Beauty opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my Rogue One: A Star Wars Story prediction, click here:
Hello all! Welcome to December and welcome to my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions!
It’s been seven days since my last Turkey Day estimates in the eight major categories. A lot can change in a week and there’s been significant developments since we were all couch bound after our Thanksgiving feasts.
Let us count them…
1) Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally held some screenings, meaning buzz is out. Official reviews are embargoed until December 10, but the first reactions indicate that the director’s latest could be a force in the Oscar race. My predictions reflect that. Furthermore, initial word makes one wonder whether it’ll be Liam Neeson or Adam Driver that get the lion’s share of attention in Supporting Actor.
2) A number of awards precursors have rolled out their winners and nominations. We begin with the National Board of Review. Yesterday, the NBR bestowed their winners upon us. They are: Manchester by the Sea (Best Film), Barry Jenkins for Moonlight (Director), Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Actor), Amy Adams in Arrival (Actress), Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (Supporting Actor), Naomie Harris in Moonlight (Supporting Actor), Manchester by the Sea (Original Screenplay), and Silence (Adapted Screenplay). The critics organization also lists ten other pictures on the year’s best list and they are: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Moonlight, Patriots Day, Silence, and Sully. Now – the NBR’s list of films have not and will not match what the Academy does. For instance, Hail Caesar! is not going to nab a Best Picture nod (it’s never been in my top 20 list of possibles and still isn’t). All the others, however, are at least feasible. The most notable snub is Fences, though I’d say it’s still near the top for Academy recognition. Lion is another notable omission.
3) The Critics Choice Awards came out today with their nominations. An important caveat: Silence (and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) weren’t screened in time for consideration. The CCA nominates 10 pictures and they are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Sully. Another note: the upcoming Jackie got no Picture love from the NBR or CCA.
There are seven nominees for Best Director and six each in the acting and screenplay races. They are:
Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Denis Villeneueve (Arrival), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Gibson’s nod is a fascinating one and he may have slightly increased his chances at Oscar attention. That said, it’s important to remember that Scorsese (who’s almost sure to get a nomination) was ineligible.
Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Nothing out of the ordinary here, though Garfield seems more likely to get Acting attention for Silence via the Academy.
Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land). Note: No nod for either Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) or Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane).
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals). Note: While some awards prognosticators have listed Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins as a possibility, his fortunes seem to be dwindling. Also, no Mykelti Williams or Stephen Henderson for Fences.
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea). No real surprises here.
Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight. Again, no shocks though the ignoring of Jackie continues here.
Adapted Screenplay: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, Sully. With Hacksaw getting Pic and Director and Actor attention, a bit surprising it didn’t land a nod here.
4) The New York Film Critics Circle named their winners today. La La Land (the current front runner for Best Picture) was victorious. However, Director went to Barry Jenkins yet again for his work in Moonlight. Casey Affleck took another Actor prize with Isabelle Huppert in Elle helping her case out with an Actress win. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Michelle Williams (for both Manchester and Certain Women) won their Supporting categories. The NYFCC combines screenplay into one and Manchester took top honors there.
Whew. Lots of information, I know, with plenty to digest! Taking all that into account and knowing there’s a bunch more precursors to come – here’s where I have the eight major races standing at this moment:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 4)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
5. Fences (PR: 2)
6. Lion (PR: 5)
7. Arrival (PR: 8)
8. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
11. Jackie (PR: 9)
12. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 16)
13. Sully (PR: 15)
14. Patriots Day (PR: 13)
15. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)
17. Live by Night (PR: 14)
18. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)
20. The Founder (PR: 19)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Best Actor
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)
5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 6)
9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 5)
8. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 8)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 7)
10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
2. Moonlight (PR: 1)
3. La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)
5. Loving (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
7. The Lobster (PR: 8)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Gold
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 3)
3. Lion (PR: 2)
4. Arrival (PR: 5)
5. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
8. Sully (PR: 10)
9. Elle (PR: 9)
10. Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Live by Night
Whew! And there you have it…
Let’s see what transpires over the next 7 days until my next round! Until then…
