The Venice Film Festival has drawn to a close and the awards bestowed today are sure to generate some controversy. The Golden Lion prize (equivalent to Best Picture) has gone to Joker, with its acclaimed performance from Joaquin Phoenix as the iconic villain. It won out over numerous foreign titles and Noah Baumbach’s MarriageStory, which drew raves and is anticipated to be a major Oscar contender.
A year ago, the Lion went to Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma, which nabbed multiple Academy nominations including Picture. In 2017, the recipient was the eventual Oscar Pic winner – Guillermo del Toro’s TheShapeofWater.
I didn’t have Joker predicted as a nominee for the past couple weeks. Does the Venice action change the dynamic? Well it’s certainly a boost. I’m still skeptical it will make the final cut, but this publicity and its expected massive box office will be feathers in its cap.
Perhaps an even bigger shocker was the winner for the Grand Jury prize – essentially the runner up spot. It went to Roman Polanski’s AnOfficerandaSpy. Controversy surrounding the filmmaker is not the only reason for prognosticators being surprised. The pic currently sports a middling 56% on Rotten Tomatoes. Unlike last year’s Jury winner TheFavourite, don’t expect this to be in the Oscar derby.
Acting races also showcased performers not on the Academy radar. Luca Marinelli took Best Actor for MartinEden and Ariane Ascaride was named top Actress for Sweden’s AboutEndlessness. That film also saw its director Roy Andersson victorious in his race. A nod for Best International Feature is feasible for it.
All in all, Venice gave Joker a hoped for ace up its sleeve in precursor activity. Let’s see if momentum continues to grow…
Blogger’s Note (08/07): My prediction has increased from $10.7 million to $14.3 million
Based on a series of Alvin Schwartz horror novels geared towards children, ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark opens in theaters next weekend. Co-produced by Guillermo del Toro, the film comes from director André Øvredal who mostly recently made the critically appreciated TheAutopsyofJaneDoe. Cast members include Zoe Colletti, Michael Garza, Gabriel Rush, Austin Abrams, Dean Norris, Gil Bellows, and Lorraine Toussaint.
The concoction of the horror genre marketing to a young audience is a risky one. I’m not confident this mix will result in pleasing box office earnings and I wouldn’t expect the “Stranger Things” crowd to turn out. Even though we’re talking PG-13 here vs. an R rating, I’ll project this performs similarly to what Overlord (which boasted its own known producer J.J. Abrams) did last year.
ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million
For my DoraandtheLostCityofGold prediction, click here:
Over the past year and change, the superhero genre has been flush with massive successes such as BlackPanther, Avengers: InfinityWar, Aquaman, CaptainMarvel, and current box office champ Shazam!, which has dutifully met expectations. The upcoming Avengers: Endgame is looking to set the all time opening record in two weeks. Something was bound to eventually get lost in the shuffle and that turned out to be Hellboy this weekend.
The film rebooted the Dark Horse Comics franchise that debuted in 2004 with Guillermo del Toro behind the camera and Ron Perlman as the horn clad anti-hero. A 2008 sequel, HellboyII: TheGoldenArmy, built on the grosses of its predecessor.
Neil Marshall took over directorial duties for the new Hellboy with David Harbour of “Stranger Things” cast as the title character. All along the way, the marketing campaign seemed curiously muted. It was as if Lionsgate might have known they had a dog on their hands. And they did. The review embargo didn’t lift until late this week. Rotten Tomatoes has been ripe with bad critical reaction with a 15% score. CinemaScore audiences haven’t been kind either with a lowly C rating.
On Sunday, the initial results have Hellboy in third place with just $12 million. Not only is that behind the second frame of Shazam!, it’s after the debut of the Regina Hall comedy Little. To put that in perspective, the 2004 Hellboy made $23 million out of the gate. TheGoldenArmy took in $34 million. For both of those films, the opening weekends represented a hefty chunk of the overall earnings. In the case of the second installment, it fell hard in its sophomore frame due to another comic boom sequel premiering called TheDarkKnight. With its toxic word of mouth, I expect this version to tumble at least 60% in weekend #2 and probably more.
If there’s any silver lining for the studio, it’s that the reboot cost a reported $50 million. That’s certainly low on the scale for this genre. Yet we can be sure this iteration of the character is a one-off. And we’ve found out what the depths of Hellboy are on a financial level and it’s not pretty.
Rebooting itself 15 years after its half demon anti-hero first appeared in theaters, Hellboy hits theaters next weekend. Based on the Dark Horse Comics that started in the early 90s, David Harbour of “Stranger Things” takes over the title role from Ron Perlman. Costars include Milla Jovovich, Ian McShane, Sasha Lane, Daniel Dae Kim, and Thomas Haden Church. Neil Marshall, best known for making horror pic TheDescent, directs after Guillermo del Toro handled the first two installments.
In 2004, the original film adaptation took in $23 million in its opening frame and $59 million total domestically. It took on cult status quickly and that catapulted 2008’s HellboyII: TheGoldenArmy to a $34 million start with $75 million overall.
Those numbers are nowhere in the MCU or DCEU range as of late. While certainly different in tone, Hellboy arrives during the second weekend of Shazam!, which should still be performing well and a month after CaptainMarvel. The chances of this, which seems to be lacking buzz, getting lost in the shuffle is real.
I’ll predict that even though it arrives more than a decade since we’ve seen this character, Hellboy will experience the lowest premiere of the trio.
Alfonso Cuaron’s Mexican drama Roma continued its precursor love today as the Los Angeles Film Critics Association awarded it Best Film. While that’s certainly a feather in the cap for something that’s a near lock for a Best Picture nod, it’s not necessarily a harbinger of what’s to come. Only once in this decade have the LAFCA and the Academy agreed on their top race – 2015’s Spotlight.
While Cuaron’s effort got the big prize, the filmmaker himself came in second in directing to a surprise selection of Debra Granik for LeaveNoTrace. Her name hasn’t surfaced much for Academy consideration and I currently do not have her in my top 10 possibilities. Ironically, only two directors this decade have shared the Oscar and this category. One is Guillermo del Toro for TheShapeofWater last year. The other? Cuaron for 2013’s Gravity.
Three of the acting winners are seen as strong players for the Oscars: Ethan Hawke (FirstReformed) in Actor, Olivia Colman for TheFavourite in Actress, and Supporting Actress victor Regina King in IfBealeStreetCouldTalk. In Supporting Actor, Steven Yeun won for his work in the South Korean mystery Burning. He’s been nowhere on Oscar’s radar and likely won’t be.
With Roma taking Best Film overall, the LAFCA had a tie in their Foreign Film race between Burning and Shoplifters.
CanYouEverForgiveMe? got some attention, taking Screenplay over runner-up TheFavourite. That could help its already decent chances at an Adapted Screenplay nod down the road.
Another surprise came in their documentary pick – the Netflix release Shirkers from Singapore. It has not been discussed much in what’s seen as a crowded field of selections.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse took Animated Film, further positioning itself as the main rival to Pixar front-runner Incredibles2.
The Venice Film Festival has wrapped up its business with awards bestowed. Alfonso Cuaron’s autobiographical Mexico set drama Roma is the winner of the fest’s version of Best Picture – the Golden Lion.
This comes as no surprise. Roma has received rapturous reviews and it seems destined to compete at the Oscars in Best Picture and not just the Foreign Language race. It’s worth noting that last year’s Golden Lion recipient, Guillermo del Toro’s TheShapeofWater, went on to Oscar glory.
The Silver Lion Grand Jury Prize (basically runner-up) went to the Yorgos Lanthimos pic TheFavourite, which has also achieved the status of a likely contender come Oscar time. Olivia Colman took the Best Actress trophy for her work in it. And Willem Dafoe is Best Actor as Vincent Van Gogh in AtEternity’sGate. Both performers appear primed to hear their names mentioned in the Academy’s nominees for their respective lead races.
If there was a surprise, it’s the Coen Brothers winning Best Screenplay for their Western anthology TheBalladofBusterScruggs over Roma or TheFavourite. While critical reaction appeared somewhat mixed, one wonders if this could still have enough admirers to be a player in future awards mixes.
All in all, Roma and TheFavourite have solidified their place as true Oscar hopefuls.
We have arrived at part 3 of summer nostalgia looking over the cinematic seasons from 30, 20, and 10 years ago. If you missed my posts on 1988 and 1998, you can find them here:
This brings us to 2008. It was a vaunted superhero summer to be sure and there’s some humdingers for our flops. Here are the top ten moneymakers in addition to other notables and bombs.
10. The Incredible Hulk
Domestic Gross: $134 million
The second feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe found Edward Norton taking on the angry green giant from Eric Bana. While better received than Ang Lee’s Hulk, it was mostly met with a shrug and Mark Ruffalo would take over the part four years later in The Avengers. It stands at lowest earner of the MCU.
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Domestic Gross: $141 million
The follow-up to 2005’s The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe made less than half of what that picture achieved. Like Hulk, it may have placed in the top ten, but it was considered a bit of a disappointment.
8. Mamma Mia!
Domestic Gross: $144 million
The ABBA infused comedic musical was a major sleeper hit and its sequel hits theaters this Friday.
7. Sex and the City
Domestic Gross: $152 million
Fans of the HBO series turned out in droves for the big screen treatment. A sequel two years later yielded less impressive returns.
6. Kung Fu Panda
Domestic Gross: $215 million
Dreamworks Animation found itself a franchise with this animal fest led by Jack Black. Two sequels have followed.
5. WALL-E
Domestic Gross: $223 million
Yet another critically lauded effort from the money minting machine that is Disney/Pixar, this would take home Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.
4. Hancock
Domestic Gross: $227 million
Despite mostly negative reviews, this superhero effort proved Will Smith’s potency at the box office. Director Peter Berg has mostly moved to true life dramas with Mark Wahlberg.
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Domestic Gross: $317 million
Nearly 20 years after The Last Crusade, Harrison Ford’s iconic hero returned and teamed up with Shia LaBeouf. Critics and audiences had their issues with it, but Indy is slated to come back again in 2021 (when Mr. Ford will almost be 80).
2. Iron Man
Domestic Gross: $318 million
It’s crazy to think now, but the idea of casting Robert Downey Jr. as a superhero less known than Batman or Superman was considered risky business at the time. We know what followed… the Marvel Cinematic Universe. This started it all.
1. The Dark Knight
Domestic Gross: $533 million
The sequel to Batman Begins turned into a genuine phenomenon with Heath Ledger’s incredible work as The Joker and an experience that has influenced numerous franchises since.
And now for some other notables of summer 2008:
Get Smart
Domestic Gross: $130 million
Steve Carell experienced a box office bomb the summer prior with Evan Almighty. He got back into the good graces of audiences with this big screen rendering of the 1960s TV series alongside Anne Hathaway.
Tropic Thunder
Domestic Gross: $110 million
Ben Stiller’s comedy was a hit with crowds and critics. Robert Downey Jr. earned an Oscar nod for his work here and we see Tom Cruise as never before.
Step Brothers
Domestic Gross: $100 million
It didn’t make as much as Adam McKay and Will Ferrell’s previous collaboration two summers earlier, Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby. However, this has achieved serious cult status in following years.
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Domestic Gross: $75 million
Guillermo del Toro’s sequel managed to out gross its predecessor and it was another critically hailed comic book adaptation in a summer filled with them. A reboot of the franchise with David Harbour comes next year.
The Strangers
Domestic Gross: $52 million
This low-budget horror flick turned into a sleeper. A sequel was released this March.
This brings us to the flops…
The Happening
Domestic Gross: $64 million
M. Night Shyamalan had his first flop two summers earlier with Lady in the Water. This one focused on killer trees with a lackluster performance from Mark Wahlberg. Audiences were laughing at it more than frightened by it. The director has since rebounded with Split.
Speed Racer
Domestic Gross: $43 million
This was the Wachowskis first picture since the Matrix trilogy and it fell far under expectations at the box office and with critics.
The Love Guru
Domestic Gross: $32 million
Mike Myers couldn’t make this creation anywhere near as iconic as Wayne Campbell or Austin Powers. Moviegoers simply ignored Pitka.
The X-Files: I Want to Believe
Domestic Gross: $20 million
Ten summers after the first adaptation of the FOX show did well at theaters, audiences didn’t want to believe in its long gestating sequel.
Meet Dave
Domestic Gross: $11 million
This sci-fi comedy was a massive bomb for Eddie Murphy, making a small percentage of its reported $60 million budget.
And that does it for my recaps of the summer! You can be sure I’ll be back next season covering 1989, 1999, and 2009.
The giant monster mash franchise that began nearly five years ago is back on screen next weekend with the release of Pacific Rim Uprising. There’s some new faces behind and in front of the camera this time around. The original Pacific Rim debuted in the summer of 2013 to decent stateside box office numbers, earning $37 million in its opening weekend and $101 million overall. It reached over $400 million worldwide.
Part 1 came from recently minted Oscar winner Guillermo del Toro, who just shares a producer credit here. Steven S. DeKnight makes his directorial debut in a cast led by John Boyega. Costars include Scott Eastwood, Cailee Spaeny, Jing Tian, and Adria Arjona. Returning cast members from the first include Charlie Day, Rinko Kikuchim, and Burn Gorman. Idris Elba and Charlie Hunnam are not back.
Uprising arrives with a slightly smaller budget than part 1 – $150 million vs. $190 million. Expectations for the sequel are also smaller – at least in North America. Universal Pictures is likely looking to make the bulk of its cash overseas, particularly in the Asian markets. While Rim seems poised to debut at #1, I’m estimating a mid 20s gross and predicting it won’t reach the century club like its predecessor.
Pacific Rim Uprising opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million
Well… here we are. After months of prognosticating and speculating, the 90th Annual Academy Awards is upon us this Sunday. This post serves as my final predictions for what and who will emerge victorious in five days.
I am listing my predicted winner as well as my runner-up in case I’m not perfect… and I certainly won’t be. I’ll have reaction up Sunday night as to how I did and my general thoughts on the ceremony.
Until then – these are my FINAL Oscar Winner predictions:
Best Picture
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
PREDICTED WINNER: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Best Actor
Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
PREDICTED WINNER: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Best Actress
Nominees:
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
PREDICTED WINNER: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
RUNNER-UP: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
RUNNER-UP: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
PREDICTED WINTER: Call Me by Your Name
RUNNER-UP: Molly’s Game
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Get Out
RUNNER-UP: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
PREDICTED WINNER: Coco
RUNNER-UP: Loving Vincent
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
PREDICTED WINNER: The Insult
RUNNER-UP: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
PREDICTED WINNER: Icarus
RUNNER-UP: Last Men in Aleppo
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
PREDICTED WINNER: Phantom Thread
RUNNER-UP: The Shape of Water
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
PREDICTED WINNER: Darkest Hour
RUNNER-UP: Wonder
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
PREDICTED WINNER: Blade Runner 2049
RUNNER-UP: War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Editing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Blade Runner 2049
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
PREDICTED WINNER: Dunkirk
RUNNER-UP: Baby Driver
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
PREDICTED WINNER: The Shape of Water
RUNNER-UP: Dunkirk
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Mighty River” from Mudbound
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me” from Coco
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
PREDICTED WINNER: “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
RUNNER-UP: “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves the following breakdown of number of wins for each picture:
4 Wins
The Shape of Water
3 Wins
Dunkirk
2 Wins
Darkest Hour, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Blade Runner 2049
1 Win
I, Tonya, Call Me by Your Name, Get Out, Coco, The Insult, Icarus, Phantom Thread, Marshall
Last night, the Directors Guild of America bestowed their honors in film and television categories. It’s a night where Oscar prognosticators like myself take notice.
Why? In the 21st century, the DGA recipient for Outstanding Achievement in Feature Film has matched the Oscar winner for Best Director 14 out of 17 times. That’s a pretty remarkable predictor. And there was no upset yesterday with Guillermo del Toro getting the prize for TheShapeofWater. Mr. del Toro can add this trophy to his Golden Globe and various others.
The DGA solidifies del Toro’s status as the person to beat at the big show. At this point, it’s tough to imagine anyone else taking it. Additionally, the movie associated with the DGA winner has won Best Picture twelve of seventeen times since 2000. This also allows Shape a front runner status in that race.
Will it change? We’ll know one month from today when the Academy Awards airs.
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