Tag: Godzilla

Box Office Predictions: May 23-26

Memorial Day weekend 2014 at the box office brings the potentially explosive opening of X-Men: Days of Future Past and the Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore rom com Blended. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/18/x-men-days-of-future-past-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/18/blended-box-office-prediction/

I’m not quite buying some prognosticators claiming X-Men will make $125 million over the four day holiday frame, but my prediction isn’t too far off from that. Meanwhile, I look for Blended to have an opening on the lower end of typical Sandler debuts.

As for holdovers, percentage drops are typically smaller during Memorial weekend so I see Godzilla, Neighbors, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 having relatively decent holds.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend top five and their four day holiday totals:

1. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Gross: $114.3 million

2. Godzilla

Predicted Gross: $50.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)

3. Blended

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Neighbors

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (representing a drop of 24%)

5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (May 16-18)

While many predictions for holdovers were solid over the past weekend, I didn’t give Godzilla near enough credit while giving Million Dollar Arm with Jon Hamm way too much credit.

Godzilla stomped into theaters to the tune of $93.1 million, well beyond my $77.3M estimate. The monster pic managed the second highest debut of the year behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier and virtually guarantees we’ll see a sequel featuring the jolly green giant in the near future.

Seth Rogen’s comedy Neighbors dropped to second with $25 million in its sophomore frame, right in line with my $24.3M projection. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was third in its third weekend with $16.8 million, on pace with my $16.6M projection.

Million Dollar Arm, the Disney sports drama, flopped in its opening with a meager $10.5 million, way below my generous $23.4M estimate. Clearly the film simply failed to resonate in its marketing campaign.

Rounding out the top five in weekend #4 was Cameron Diaz’s The Other Woman with $6.3 million, just over my $5.7M prediction.

That’s all for now folks! I’ll have results posted for Memorial weekend next week.

Box Office Predictions: May 16-18

It’s the battle of AMC stars Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm as the summer season rolls along entering weekend #3 with monster flick Godzilla and Disney sports drama Million Dollar Arm entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/11/godzilla-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/11/million-dollar-arm-box-office-prediction/

Godzilla with Cranston should very easily dominate while a more interesting scenario could play out for the runner-up spot. Last weekend’s champ Neighbors had a bigger than expected opening (more on that below), however it received only a B Cinemascore grade which is lower than I would’ve thought. That means it could be in store for a larger sophomore drop-off than I might have earlier anticipated. This could set it up for a close showdown with Million Dollar Arm, starring Hamm.

As for the rest of the top five, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should experience another healthy fall in its third weekend while The Other Woman rounds out the group.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Godzilla

Predicted Gross: $77.3 million

2. Neighbors

Predicted Gross: $24.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Million Dollar Arm

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (May 9-11)

The Seth Rogen/Zac Efron comedy Neighbors scored a truly impressive debut with $49 million, well above my $37.3M projection. The well-reviewed frat pic scored the fifth highest R rated comedy opening of all time, after The Hangover Part II, Sex and the City, Ted, and Jackass 3-D.

Dropping to second was The Amazing Spider-Man 2, plummeting a healthy 61% with $35.5 million, below my $40.6M estimate. The Spidey sequel has not met expectations domestically and it’s on course to certainly be the lowest grossing pic in the franchise yet. Sony and Marvel might be in for a major brainstorming session in order for the planned third and fourth installments to reverse this troubling trend.

The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz was third with $9.6 million in weekend #3, holding up stronger than my $7.6M prediction. In fourth, Heaven Is for Real also performed better than my prediction with my $7.4 million (I said $5M). The fifth and sixth spots went to sequel holdovers that I didn’t include in my top six estimates: Captain America: The Winter Soldier took in $5.7 million and Rio 2 made $5 million.

This means the other two newbies this weekend posted lackluster results. The faith based Moms’ Night Out was seventh with $4.3 million, slightly under my $5.1M projection. The animated Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return tanked in eighth with $3.7 million, below my moderate $5.7M estimate.

That’s all for now. folks!

 

Godzilla Box Office Prediction

The giant green monster is back in theaters this Friday with Godzilla from director Gareth Edwards. This is certainly being seen as one of summer 2014s’s tent pole releases and Warner Bros. is certainly hoping for massive results.

Godzilla has been assisted from some truly terrific trailers and a healthy marketing campaign. Obviously, the name recognition of the title character is off the charts. The real people cast includes Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Elizabeth Olsen, Ken Watanabe, Juliette Binoche, Sally Hawkins, and, yes… Walter freaking White himself… Bryan Cranston! Not everything Godzilla related over the recent past was met with positive results. Sixteen summers ago, Roland Emmerich’s highly publicized Godzilla pic was widely expected to be a huge blockbuster, especially after the director had hit gold with Independence Day two years prior. Instead, it managed only an OK $136 million gross and was widely panned by critics and audiences alike.

The 2014 version is unlikely to suffer the same fate. Reviews so far have generally been fairly positive to mixed. I don’t see Godzilla opening in the neighborhood of the Captain America or Amazing Spider-Man sequels which both topped $90 million. For Godzilla, anything below $70M would likely be seen as disappointing. It is worth noting that much of Godzilla‘s total gross will come from international markets. The most sensible scenario domestically  is a gross just north of $75M, though it could certainly surprise. However, I’ll play it rather safe with this pick.

Godzilla opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million

For my Million Dollar Arm prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/11/million-dollar-arm-box-office-prediction/