Den of Thieves hopes to steal away some box office bucks next Friday. The heist thriller is headlined by Gerard Butler with a supporting cast including 50 Cent, O’Shea Jackson Jr., and Pablo Schreiber. Christian Gudegast, who wrote the screenplay for Butler’s sequel London Has Fallen, directs.
Butler’s box office drawing power has been mixed since he broke out in 2007’s 300. Films ending in the words “has fallen” have performed well, as have The Bounty Hunter and Law Abiding Citizen. Others like Gamer and Gods of Egypt have not.
Thieves doesn’t look like a candidate to be a breakout. Action competition is a factor as 12 Strong opens the same day and Proud Mary and The Commuter will be in their sophomore frames.
I’ll predict this struggles to open in double digits and misses the mark.
Den of Thieves opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million
Four new titles debut this weekend at the box office to try and challenge Zootopia after its record breaking debut. They are: semi-sequel 10 Cloverfield Lane, Sacha Baron Cohen comedy The Brothers Grimsby, Biblical drama The Young Messiah, and rom com The Perfect Match. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, Disney’s Zootopia should fairly easily control the #1 spot for the second weekend in a row, unless Cloverfield significantly exceeds my prognosis. The real battle among the newcomers could be for the #3 slot and I have Messiah slightly edging Grimsby. The number five position could be a battle between holdovers London Has Fallen and Deadpool as I believe the former will have a higher percentage dropoff than the latter. Opening on a limited number of screens, my $4.1M prediction for The Perfect Match should keep it outside the top six.
And with that, my top 6 predictions for this weekend:
Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
2. 10 Cloverfield Lane
Predicted Gross: $28.3 million
3. The Young Messiah
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. The Brothers Grimsby
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. London Has Fallen
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
6. Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (March 4-6)
Disney had a banner weekend as Zootopia had the largest traditional animation opening ever for the studio at a blazing $75 million, soaring past my meager $54.4M projection. The animal tale can also claim highest animated debut for the month of March. As mentioned, it should easily stampede its competitors and remain in first next weekend.
Action sequel London Has Fallen couldn’t match its predecessor Olympus Has Fallen‘s $30M premiere from three years ago. The badly reviewed follow-up earned $21.6 million, under my $24.6M prediction and I look for it to lose over half its audience in its sophomore frame.
Deadpool dropped to third with $16.7 million (in line with my $16.9M estimate) for an incredible tally of $311M.
Tina Fey’s so-so reviewed war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot had a soft opening for fourth with $7.4 million, a tad below my $8.4M projection.
In fifth, box office dud Gods of Egypt took a nosedive from its dismal debut last weekend with $5.1 million (I was slightly kinder with $5.8M) for a total of $23M.
Finally, British horror offering The Other Side of the Door opened in limited fashion with only $1.2 million (compared to my $2.1M estimate) for just 16th place.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
A quartet of new releases start out the month of March at the box office this weekend. They are Disney Animation’s Zootopia, action sequel London Has Fallen, Tina Fey war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, and British horror entry The Other Side of the Door. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Zootopia should have no trouble ending the three week domination of Deadpool atop the charts while I expect London to hit the #2 spot, putting Ryan Reynolds’ vulgar superhero in the three spot with Whiskey placing fourth. Box office dud Gods of Egypt should be fifth in its second weekend, as long as its anticipated hefty decline doesn’t allow Kung Fu Panda 3 to remain in the top five. As for The Other Side of the Door, it’s only opening on around 500 screens and my $2.1 million prediction for it leaves it far outside the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $54.4 million
2. London Has Fallen
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million
3. Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)
4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Gods of Egypt
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (February 26-28)
As anticipated, Deadpool maintained the #1 position for the third weekend in a row. The three new entries were, as Donald Trump might say, “low energy”. Ryan Reynolds’ phenomenon took in $31.1 million (compared to my $28M forecast) for a total of $285M.
Gods of Egypt proved to be the first massive bomb of the year as the inexplicably budgeted $140 million action fantasy grossed just $14.1 million, which was on pace with my $13.9M estimate.
Animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 3 was third in weekend #5 with $8.8 million, in line with my $8.2M projection for a total gross of $128M.
Biblical drama Risen was fourth in its sophomore frame with $6.8 million, right there with my $7.1M prediction for a ten day total of $22M.
Two newcomers had soft debuts for the fifth and sixth slots. Heist thriller Triple 9 earned $6.1 million (just below my prediction of $6.9M) for fifth while Olympic drama Eddie the Eagle was iced in sixth with only $6 million (I was much kinder with an $11.2M estimate).
And that’ll do it for now. folks! Until next time…
Like last weekend, a trio of newcomers will attempt to unseat the reign of Deadpool at the box office. They are big budget action fantasy Gods of Egypt, Olympic sports tale Eddie the Eagle, and heist thriller Triple 9. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
And like last weekend, I don’t see any of them topping the raunchy Ryan Reynolds superhero megahit. Deadpool should lose about half its audience in weekend #3, allowing it to easily come in first. As for newbies, Gods of Egypt and Eddie the Eagle should manage 2nd and 3rd with Triple 9 competing for a top five showing. Holdovers Kung Fu Panda 3 and Risen may lose between 35-40% of its crowds.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for this weekend:
Deadpool
Predicted Gross: $28 million (representing a drop of 50%)
2. Gods of Egypt
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
3. Eddie the Eagle
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 3
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)
5. Risen
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)
6. Triple 9
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (February 19-21)
As expected, Deadpool continued to rule the charts in its sophomore frame with $56.4 million – in range with my $58.6M estimate. Its two week total stands at an astonishing $236M and, as mentioned above, it should continue its dominance next weekend.
Kung Fu Panda 3 was second with $12.5 million, a bit above my $10.8M projection for a four week haul of $114M.
Biblical drama Risen was the top newcomer in third with $11.8 million, not quite reaching my $14.2M prediction. This is a fair debut and it hopes to experience smallish declines as Easter approaches.
Critically lauded low budget horror pic The Witch debuted in fourth with $8.8 million, ahead of my $6.7M estimate. Considering its reported $1 million budget, this is quite a tidy sum.
Rom com How to Be Single was fifth in its second weekend with $8.2 million, just below my prediction of $9.2M for a two week total of $31M.
Jesse Owens biopic Race had a muted sixth place premiere with $7.3 million, below my $10.6M forecast.
Finally, Ben Stiller’s box office dud of a sequel slipped to seventh with $5.4 million (I said $6.1M) for a total of just $23M.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Saddled with a rather inexplicable reported $140 million price tag, action fantasy saga Gods of Egypt hits screens next weekend. It may be lucky to capture a third of its massive budget domestically and be one of the costliest flops of 2016’s first quarter.
Directed by Alex Proyas, who gave us Dark City and I, Robot, Gods features some recognizable faces including Gerard Butler, Geoffrey Rush, Rufus Sewell, and Chadwick Boseman. The Lionsgate release comes just a week after Risen and the week before London Has Fallen and with Deadpool still making a killing. In other words, there’s a lot of competition for the genre crowd.
I just don’t see Gods doing any significant business. Anything over $20 million would surprise me and I believe this will struggle to even reach $15M for a majorly disappointing start.
Gods of Egypt opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million
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