This weekend, Harold Cronk (director of God’s Not Dead and its first sequel) has the faith-based war drama God Bless the Broken Road opening in theaters. Next weekend, the busy filmmaker releases Unbroken: Path to Redemption. It is deemed a “spiritual sequel” to 2014’s Unbroken. Pure Flix Entertainment is the distributor and I have a feeling we are about to see one of the largest opening weekend disparities from predecessor to follow-up.
Four years ago, Angelina Jolie made the first entry. It opened on Christmas Day and took in $46 million over the holiday weekend with an eventual domestic haul of $115 million. None of the principles behind that hit are back. Samuel Hunt takes over the lead role that Jack O’Connell played and the supporting cast includes Merritt Patterson, Vanessa Bell Calloway (most known as Eddie Murphy’s arranged wife 30 years ago in Coming to America), Bob Gunton, Gary Cole and evangelist Will Graham (who plays his late grandfather Billy).
I’m not so sure moviegoers are even aware of this sequel’s existence. Redemption is currently slated to premiere on a rather low 1200 screens. I have this weekend’s Harold Cronk movie (Broken Road) estimated at $2.1 million. I’ll bump this one a tad bit more, but not by much.
Unbroken: Path to Redemption opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million
Blogger’s Note (09/06/18): I am making a change at #5 spot for the weekend and taking out Mission: Impossible – Fallout (still predicted at $4.1 million) and replacing it with Searching at $4.2 million.
While my attention on the blog has shifted in recent days to the many Oscar hopefuls premiering at film festivals, we still have box office predictions to consider. And there’s a trio of newcomers opening this weekend: horror pic TheNun from the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, Jennifer Garner revenge thriller Peppermint, and faith-based war drama GodBlesstheBrokenRoad. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on each of them here:
TheNun (with my mid 40s estimate) should have no trouble ending the three-week reign of CrazyRichAsians atop the charts. TheConjuring franchise has been remarkably consistent in its opening weekend grosses and I expect that will continue here.
With that scary sister easily holding down the top spot, the real battle could be at #2 between Asians and Peppermint. I’ll give the former the edge by a couple million.
Summer holdovers The Meg and Mission: Impossible – Fallout should round out the top five. My lowly $2.1 million take on God Bless the Broken Road leaves it on the outside looking in.
And with that, my top 5 take on the weekend ahead:
Crazy Rich Asians easily topped the charts for the third frame in a row with $28.5 million over the Labor Day long holiday weekend (I was just a tad over at $30.6 million). The breakout comedy of the summer is up to $117 million thus far.
The Meg followed in second at $13.8 million (I said $14.5 million) for a tally of $123 million.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout was third with $9.3 million, in range with my $10 million projection. The sixth franchise entry stands at $206 million and is right on the doorstep at becoming the series highest domestic earner. That record is currently held by part 2 with $215 million.
Operation Finale had the biggest debut of the weekend in fourth with $7.8 million. I was close with an $8.8 million estimate. The Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama has earned $9.6 million since its Wednesday opening.
The critically acclaimed computer screen set thriller Searching was close behind in fifth with $7.6 million, just ahead of my $7.1 million forecast. Counting its limited release a week prior, it’s made $8.1 million total.
I incorrectly had Christopher Robin in the top 5 but it placed 6th with $7.2 million (I said $8 million). The Winnie the Pooh tale has earned $87 million as it seems likely to eek out a $100 million gross.
A trio of newcomers all posted unimpressive results. Sci-fi family adventure Kin was 12th with $3.8 million (I was right there at $3.9 million). Mexican import Ya Veremos placed 14th at $2.2 million (I said $2.5 million). And the poorly reviewed Gothic horror effort The Little Stranger managed a piddling $496,000 for 23rd position… way under my $2.6 million guess.
This Friday, the faith-based military drama GodBlesstheBrokenRoad parks in approximately 1200 theaters. To say the pic has an eclectic mix of participants is an understatement. Harold Cronk directs and he’s responsible for distributor Freestyle Releasing largest hit God’sNotDead and its sequel. It’s based on a song made known by country band Rascal Flatts (which automatically causes me to point out that they hail from my home of Columbus, Ohio). And the cast includes Lindsay Pulsipher, Jordin Sparks, Robin Givens, and former NFL superstar LaDainian Tomlinson.
Quite the grouping, huh? The low number of theaters certainly limits its prospects. That said, pics geared toward Christian audiences can often surprise. We all saw a huge example of that earlier this year when ICanOnlyImagine (also based on a song) demolished all expectations.
I don’t see this happening. I think the road for this ends with $3 million as a likely ceiling and I’ll go under that.
GodBlesstheBrokenRoad opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 