Tag: Glenn Close

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 21st Edition

Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?

That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.

The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.

There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.

Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).

In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).

We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.

In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.

You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)

15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)

16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)

18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)

20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)

21. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Here

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)

15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)

Zendaya, Challengers

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress

5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)

15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)

12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

I Saw the TV Glow

Juror No. 2

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)

13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Here (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Original

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)

4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Girl with the Needle

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)

4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)

9. Union (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)

4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)

4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Longlegs

Nightbitch

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Nosferatu

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)

7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)

8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow

“Release” from Trap

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place: Day One

Nosferatu

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:

10 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

Blitz, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Conclave, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked

3 Nominations

A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

We are about a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the supporting derbies and Best Actor and they can be perused here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We now move to Actress. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Emma Stone for Poor Things. I will note that her main competitor – Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon – was listed at that time as a Supporting Actress contender and not lead. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Annette Bening in Nyad and Carey Mulligan for Maestro. I did not identify Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) at that early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned for in supporting actress (the vice versa of Gladstone).

Speaking of Gladstone, she could make a return appearance with Fancy Dance. So could Ms. Stone though I do wonder if the anthology format of Kinds of Kindness slots her here or in lead. Other possibilities include the return of Angelina Jolie to the awards conversation as opera legend Maria Callas in Maria and Lady Gaga as Joker’s muse Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie à Deux.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

Angelina Jolie, Maria

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Other Possibilitities:

Glenn Close, The Summer Book

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Tilda Swinton, The End

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Director is up next!

Best Picture 2018: The Final Five


We have reached 2018 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-17, they are linked at the bottom of the post.

2018 is a tricky year to winnow down. In fact, all 8 nominees have strong cases to make the final five. Only one thing is for sure. Peter Farrelly’s Green Book is one of the five considering it won Best Picture. It stands as one of the more surprising (and derided) victors in recent years. The race relations drama went an impressive 3/5 on its nominations – taking Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Original Screenplay and missing Actor (Viggo Mortensen) and Film Editing.

So what of the other seven hopefuls? Here’s my speculation:

Black Panther

The only MCU flick (and for that matter comic book adaptation) to score a BP nom was Ryan Coogler’s phenomenon with Chadwick Boseman as the title character. Its seven nominations included three wins for Score, Production Design, and Costume Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Besides BP, the other six mentions were all technical. It missed directing, any acting inclusions, screenplay, and even editing. It’s hard to leave this out though that’s the case with everything here.

BlacKkKlansman

Spike Lee received his first and only Oscar for his adapted screenplay. That’s the only victory of the night among its six total nods as Lee did make the quintet for direction. The others were Supporting Actor (Adam Driver), Score, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Had this not taken Adapted Screenplay, I’d leave this off. Yet that win has me (somewhat reluctantly) leaving it in.

Bohemian Rhapsody

Rami Malek was crowned Best Actor for his performance as Queen frontman Freddie Mercury in the biopic. Despite mixed reviews, Rhapsody was successful in four of its five noms. Picture is the only race it didn’t win as it took Actor, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. That 80% ratio solidifies it even without attention for the direction or screenplay.

The Favourite

The period piece from Yorgos Lanthimos tied all nominees with 10. The lone victory was an unexpected one as Olivia Colman took Best Actress over the favored Glenn Close (The Wife).

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Despite the 10% ratio, it still led all contenders with key placements in Director, two Supporting Actress bids (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), Original Screenplay, and Editing.

Roma

Alfonso Cuaron was your Best Director in the Mexican drama that was the other picture with 10 nods. It also won Foreign Language Film and Cinematography while contending in Actress (Yalitza Aparicio), Supporting Actress (Marina de Tavira), Original Screenplay, both Sound competitions, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes and easily. The Netflix property was supposed to be the streamer’s first BP (they’re still waiting) and was favored before that Book upset.

A Star Is Born

Bradley Cooper’s version of the frequently remade melodrama achieved 8 nominations and one win for the director’s duet with costar Lady Gaga “Shallow” in Original Song. Both Cooper and Gaga were up for their acting as was Sam Elliot in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing, and Cinematography.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but another tough call. Star‘s shine with voters seemed to dim as the season wore on. This is evidenced by it missing directing and editing.

Vice

This is a good time to point out that all 8 BP hopefuls won at least one statue. Adam McKay’s biopic of former Vice President Cheney (played by Christian Bale) took home the Makeup and Hairstyling award. Other noms were for the direction, Bale, Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell), Supporting Actress (Amy Adams), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No and I really struggled here. Vice landed mentions everywhere it needed to. The so-so critical reaction made it a tad easier to leave it out. Simply put, this could’ve been in over BlacKkKlansman or Bohemian, but I had to make the judgment call.

So that means my 2018 final five is:

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

I’ll have my post for 2019 up soon! The 2009-17 write-ups are here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five
Best Picture 2010: The Final Five
Best Picture 2011: The Final Five
Best Picture 2012: The Final Five
Best Picture 2013: The Final Five
Best Picture 2014: The Final Five
Best Picture 2015: The Final Five
Best Picture 2016: The Final Five
Best Picture 2017: The Final Five

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actress Race

The Supporting Actress derby is up next for my deep dives in the six major categories (Picture, Director, the 4 acting competitions). If you missed my current take on Supporting Actor, it’s here:

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actor Race

With two months left to go in the calendar year, it’s a good time to take stock in where we stand in 2022 with the various hopefuls. In 2019 and 2020 in late October, I correctly identified 3 of the 5 eventual nominees in Supporting Actress. Three years ago, that included eventual winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story) as well as Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell). I had Scarlett Johansson listed in Other Possibilities for Jojo Rabbit while not having Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) yet on the radar. A year later, the trio of Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Amanda Seyfried (Mank) were already in my top five. Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) took the gold. Both she and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were tagged in Other Possibilities.

The ratio dropped in 2021. I named 2 of the 5 women with Ariana DeBose in West Side Story (who won) and Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog. 2 nominees – Judi Dench (Belfast) and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) – were in Other Possibilities while Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) wasn’t in my listed ten.

We arrive at 2022 where Ms. Buckley is in the mix again. She appears in Women Talking alongside a large ensemble of additional actresses. This film gives us the highest probability of seeing double nominees from the same picture. It’s happened three times since 2010. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams were up for The Fighter that year with Leo emerging victorious. In 2011, Octavia Spencer took the statue for The Help with Jessica Chastain also making the cut. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were both in the mix for 2018’s The Favourite.

With Women Talking, the Academy could dive a tad deeper with Judith Ivery and Sheila McCarthy (who are standouts). I suspect they’ll go with Buckley and Claire Foy (who was notably snubbed three years ago for First Man). I’ve had the latter listed in first place as she’s got a slightly meatier role.

That brings us to a key caveat in this race. A few weeks back, there was the unexpected announcement that Michelle Williams in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans would be campaigned for in lead actress. She could’ve easily been placed here. If the studio had done that, I would continue to have Williams at #1 and feel confident that she’d win her first Oscar. However, in the Best Actress competition, I only have her in fourth position as of my last forecast.

Back to performers who are eligible in this. As long as The Banshees of Inisherin performs well with voters (and it should), Kerry Condon should make the quintet and could be a threat to win. Truth be told, this seems like a wide open competition without Williams. I could see either Women Talking actress at the podium or Condon. Same goes for Hong Chau as Brendan Fraser’s caretaker in The Whale or Stephanie Hsu as the world altering daughter in Everything Everywhere All at Once. That film offers the possibility of an additional double nomination with Jamie Lee Curtis’s nearly unrecognizable role. As for The Whale, I think Chau is far more likely than costar Sadie Sink.

I’m not as sold on Anne Hathaway in Armageddon Time, which may not make a dent at the ceremony. The many negative reviews for The Son have me questioning the viability of Vanessa Kirby or Laura Dern. Cha Cha Real Smooth might be too small for Dakota Johnson to nab her first Academy mention. Thuso Mbedu in The Woman King seems like a stretch. There’s unseen performances that could rise up like Kate Winslet (Avatar: The Way of Water) or Jean Smart (Babylon). Of all those choices, only Smart is in the top ten.

Critics groups may be integral in weeding out the nominees. This is where we could see Nina Hoss (Tár) or Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) rise up. Or we could get a nominee from a forthcoming hit such as Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) or Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).

Over the past couple of months, all of my five nominees have come from films that I have in my 1o Best Picture hopefuls. That also holds true for Supporting Actor. And, frankly, that usually doesn’t happen. This is partly why I’m putting Carey Mulligan (She Said) in my projections after the studio announced she’ll vie for supporting instead of lead. I’ve got She Said barely missing a BP nod.

Bottom line: nothing is close to being settled in Supporting Actress and the talking about these women could change as we get closer to nomination time.

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Actor is up next!

Oscar Predictions: Raymond & Ray

Ewan McGregor and Ethan Hawke are half brothers who reunite at the funeral of their bad father in Raymond & Ray. The dramedy comes from Rodrigo Garcia, who directed Glenn Close to a Best Actress nod in 2011’s Albert Nobbs. Most recently, he helmed Close and Mila Kunis in the drug abuse drama Four Good Days. His latest premiered at the Toronto Film Festival ahead of its October 21st Apple TV streaming debut. Costars include Maribel Verdu and Sophie Okonedo.

Reviews here are perfectly split down the middle at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. It came and went at the Canadian fest with little fanfare and scant awards buzz. Expect that to be the case moving forward. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Thirteen Lives

Ron Howard is no stranger to Academy voters as 1995’s Apollo 13 was his first effort to nab a Best Picture nomination. Six years later in 2001, A Beautiful Mind won the big prize as did the former child star for his direction. It’s been nearly a decade and a half since Frost/Nixon and that was his last title to compete for BP.

On paper, Thirteen Lives looks like a contender. On the flip side, so did Hillbilly Elegy two years ago and it only managed a Supporting Actress nod for Glenn Close and Makeup and Hairstyling.

Following its limited release on July 29th, Lives streams on Amazon beginning August 5th. The true life survival tale recounts the events of the Tham Luang cave rescue of 2018. Viggo Mortensen, Colin Farrell, and Joel Edgerton costar. Early reviews are decent but perhaps a tad deceiving. The current 90% Rotten Tomatoes rating masks the fact that several critics claim it’s merely serviceable. While it might be a crowdpleaser, the initial reaction leads me to think voters won’t take the bait.

There’s lots of mentions of last year’s documentary The Rescue which covered the same subject matter. That film surprisingly missed the cut for Documentary Feature. It won’t be unexpected when Thirteen Lives misses Best Picture. Perhaps a tech nod (Sound?) could materialize. I wouldn’t count on it. In my Sunday update, I had Lives listed in the Other Possibilities section for Picture, Actor (Mortensen), Supporting Actor (Farrell), and screenplay. Don’t be surprised if they all fall out of contention in my next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Deep Water

Adrian Lyne’s erotic thriller Deep Water was supposed to surface in theaters way back in November 2020 before its COVID delays. It marks the director’s first feature in 20 years since Unfaithful. The multiplex release was scrapped and a year and a half later, it’s slated for a Hulu streaming debut on Friday. The cast includes former couple Ben Affleck and Ana de Armas along with Tracy Letts, Lil Rel Howery, Dash Mihok, Finn Wittrock, and Kristen Connolly.

The embargo is up. Some critics have called it a worthy throwback to 80s/90s era psychosexual dramas. Others aren’t as kind as evidenced by the 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

Lyne’s previous efforts have yielded awards attention. 1983’s Flashdance garnered 4 down the line nominations with a win for that title song. 1987’s Fatal Attraction nabbed six including Picture, Actress (Glenn Close), and Supporting Actress (Anne Archer). Diane Lane received a Best Actress mention for the aforementioned Unfaithful two decades back.

So it’s not unreasonable to think of Lyne’s work as Oscar bait. It just won’t happen here as Water‘s critical reaction won’t give this any oxygen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars 2021: The Case of Olivia Colman

Olivia Colman’s turn in Netflix’s The Lost Daughter is the second Case Of post for the five women competing for Best Actress. If you missed the first on Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, you can find it here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jessica Chastain

The Case for Olivia Colman:

It’s another hailed performance from the Oscar winner who surprisingly took to the podium three years back for The Favourite (upsetting frontrunner Glenn Close in The Wife). Colman gets her third nod in four years. In addition to the victory from 2018, she was nominated last year in supporting for The Father. She nabbed precursor attention at the Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. Daughter performed decently with the Academy with Jessie Buckley receiving an unexpected spot in Supporting Actress and director Maggie Gyllenhaal’s being recognized for her adapted screenplay. Furthermore, Best Actress looks wide open and anything could happen.

The Case Against Olivia Colman:

Had Daughter managed a Best Picture slot, I might feel more confident in calling for a potential second trophy for Colman. That said, none of the five Actress’s films are in the big dance. Critics liked this better than general audiences judging from Rotten Tomatoes. In an unexpected twist, BAFTA did not include Colman. What gives me the most pause is that Colman is the most recent recipient – Jessica Chastain and Kristen Stewart (Spencer) have never won, Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) is a supporting winner from 13 years ago, and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) took Actress 19 years ago.

Previous Nominations: 2

The Favourite (2018 – Actress, WON); The Father (2020 – Supporting Actress)

The Verdict:

This is a tricky one and good luck figuring out Best Actress in 2021. The counterargument to the recency bias is that it didn’t hurt Frances McDormand (Nomadland) last year. However, that was a frontrunner for BP and that narrative doesn’t exist this time around. If Colman can get a win at SAG this weekend or Critics Choice later on, it increases her viability with the Academy. If not, I doubt she gets her second Oscar.

My Case Of posts will continue with Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog…

Swan Song Review

Benjamin Cleary’s Swan Song is told through the eyes of two characters in a near future setting. In years approaching, it seems that our contact lenses serve as cameras allowing remote bystanders to witness the interactions of others. This comes into play with a tale of clones and impending loss.

Cameron Turner (Mahershala Ali) is facing a quandary that’s slightly less believable than his disposable camcorders. Diagnosed with a terminal illness, he struggles with how to tell his wife Poppy (Ali’s Moonlight costar Naomie Harris in another fine performance). With a young child and another on the way, an alternative solution is presented. Kindly Dr. Scott (Glenn Close) can make an exact copy of him. Cameron would face his final days at a lush and remote medical facility. Poppy and the rest of the family would have no idea.

At Dr. Scott’s locale, he meets patient #2 Kate (Awkwafina). He would be third. Away from it, Cameron is introduced to her engineered doppelgänger. That interaction helps push him to the yes column. Yet when he meets the clone called Jack (also played by Ali, naturally) – doubts are cast.

Song features plenty of flashbacks showing Cameron’s existence in healthier days. This includes his meet cute with Poppy involving a candy bar. It gets more dramatic when his eventual spouse is dealt a devastating loss.

The new technology would prevent that from happening and Cleary’s screenplay mostly succeeds in navigating the sticky wicket ethical issues presented. A two-time Oscar winner given his first sole leading role, Ali is excellent. He has the assignment of playing two characters. They may be the same person, but they have different motivations at various times. That’s not an easy feat to pull off and Ali passes the test impressively with subtle grace.

Swan Song is indeed with a tearjerker that manages to earn them with much credit to its lead(s). Cleary is not overly clear about how this enterprise of Xeroxing yourself came to be. It actually works in the picture’s favor. I’m not sure those explorations could have been more revelatory from those we’ve seen in other sci-fi tales with similar themes. Instead we are presented with Cameron’s predicament in real time and with the understandable conflicts he undergoes as his decision clock winds down before our eyes.

***1/2 (out of four)

 

Oscar Predictions: Swan Song

Playing at AFI Fest ahead of its December 17th streaming premiere on Apple TV, early word is out for the futuristic drama Swan Song. Marking the feature length directorial debut for Benjamin Cleary (who won the Oscar for Live Action Short Film in 2015 for Stutterer), Mahershala Ali stars as a terminally ill man faced with decision of cloning himself. Naomie Harris, Glenn Close, and Awkwafina costar.

Based on a rather small sampling of critical reaction, the buzz seems mixed. Some reviewers are hailing it as an effective weepie while others are more soft in their praise. The bulk of write-ups are quick to point out the fine work from Ali and Harris. This isn’t their first collaboration. Five years ago, Ali knocked out all competitors to win Supporting Actor for Moonlight. Two years later, he would again be victorious in the same race for Green Book. Harris made the cut in Supporting Actress for Moonlight, but ultimately lost to Viola Davis for Fences. 

With two gold statues to his name, it’s hard to fathom this is Ali’s inaugural sole lead cinematic part. Apple will probably mount an awards push for him and Harris. However, I suspect it could be too late in the game for either to have a legit chance and the varied reaction to the quality of the pic itself won’t help. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…