Nearly a quarter century ago, M. Night Shyamalan’s phenom The Sixth Sense scared up six Oscar nominations including Best Picture and Director. It didn’t win any, but it established the filmmaker as a force at the box office. His fortunes have certainly ebbed and flowed in the 21st century with financial hits and misses. As far as awards attention, only 2004’s The Village achieved another Academy nod for its score.
Shyamalan’s latest is the apocalyptic thriller Knock at the Cabin with Dave Bautista headlining the cast. Based on Paul G. Tremblay’s 2018 novel, Knock‘s embargo is up today ahead of its Friday release. The results are pretty encouraging with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score. At the low point in his filmography, he had a string of flopsand critical bombs (Lady in the Water, The Happening, The Last Airbender, After Earth) that racked up plenty of Golden Raspberry mentions.
Cabin is ahead of Shyamalan’s two predecessors Glass and Old as far as the RT meter. It isn’t as high (77%) as comeback vehicle Split from 2017. While Bautista is being complimented for his performance, I don’t see this being welcomed in any of the Academy races a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In 1999, M. Night Shyamalan’s breakout smash The Sixth Sense received six Oscar nominations, including Picture, Director, the supporting work of Haley Joel Osment and Toni Collette, and the screenplay that infamously shocked the moviegoing masses. It ended up winning none of them and since then, Shyamalan’s filmography has resulted in just one other nomination for his next 10 features (Original Score for The Village).
Conversely, we have seen 23 nods and some victories for the auteur’s work at the Razzies (which annually celebrates the worst in film). This includes four nominations each for Lady in the Water and The Happening, 8 for The Last Airbender, six with After Earth, and one for Glass.
This brings us to Old, his latest pic opening tomorrow. The review embargo lifted today and it currently sports a somewhat decent 61% Rotten Tomatoes score. That said, many critics say it encompasses the best of Shyamalan and the worst (get ready for some clunky dialogue).
No, Old will not contend for Best Picture at the Oscars (but it may not get Razzie love either). However, just a look at the trailers and TV spots indicates it could play in one race. The plot involves its cast of characters rapidly aging on a scenic beach and that involves makeup.
The Makeup and Hairstyling category is one where critical kudos doesn’t mean much. I give you previous pics such as Click, Norbit, The Lone Ranger, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, and Maleficent: Mistress of Evil as evidence.
There will be more likely nominees in the mix such as Cruella and House of Gucci and Jessica Chastain’s forthcoming transformation as the title character in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Yet perhaps Old could have a shot here and my sixth sense says that’s at least feasible. On the flip side, perhaps when nominations come out – we will discover Old‘s viability had been dead the entire time. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (07/21): I am revising my Old prediction down from $22.8 million to $19.8 million
What will be the ending to the next M. Night Shyamalan opening weekend story? That’s a tough one with Old, the filmmaker’s latest thriller debuting July 23rd. Based on a graphic novel, the pic places its cast in a beach setting where they inexplicably begin rapidly aging. That’s about the biggest nightmare Hollywood can imagine and Universal Pictures is banking that the horror will translate onscreen. The cast includes Gael Garcia Bernal, Vicky Krieps, Eliza Scanlen, Alex Woolf, Abbey Lee, Rufus Sewell, Ken Leung, and Embeth Davidtz.
Over the past six years, Shyamalan has experienced a career resurgence with his budgets getting lower and his grosses far exceeding the price tag. 2015’s The Visit took in a surprising $25 million out of the gate ($65 million overall domestic gross). 2017’s Split started off with a cool $40 million ($138 million haul) and its 2019 follow-up Glass earned $46 million over the long MLK frame with a $111 million eventual take.
In a summer filled with sequels and reboots, Old could have the advantage (despite being based on a property) of looking like something fresh. You could even say – what’s Old is new. The trailers and TV spots are pretty effective. It is competing for some of the same audience with the G.I. Joe franchise overhaul Snake Eyes. However, my gut says this could manage to overshadow it.
The aforementioned predecessors from the director kicked off in a less competitive timeframe. I still believe Old gets pretty close to the $25 million achieved by The Visit and gives it a solid chance at topping charts over Snake Eyes.
Emma is the latest adaptation of the 1815 Jane Austen novel and it’s out this weekend in limited release and posting solid numbers. This version stars Anya Taylor-Joy in the title role. She’s best known for her work in the horror genre with The Witch, Split, and Glass. Reviews are praising with a current 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
The film marks the debut of director Autumn de Wilde and arrives at an awfully early frame for awards voters to remember it. One of the last renderings of the book was in 1996 with Gwyneth Paltrow starring. It opened in the summer of that year and nabbed Oscar nods for Costume Design and Score. The former category is certainly a possibility. However, like what came before nearly a quarter century ago, I am skeptical this Emma contends for top of the line races.
On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a surprise for this to be placed in the Musical/Comedy lane at the Golden Globes. We have seen years where the Actress derby there is rather weak (including in 2019 when none of the five nominees managed Academy recognition). That could allow Taylor-Joy to be noticed at the Globes. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
If nothing else, M. Night Shyamalan is audacious and I have always admired that. He likes to swing away at the cinematic fences and in Glass, he melds two of his pictures into a new universe. It’s ultimately not a very satisfying one, but the guy tries hard.
At the end of 2017’s Split, which returned the filmmaker to box office prominence, it was revealed that what we watched existed in the same realm of 2000’s Unbreakable. It did so by bringing in David Dunn (Bruce Willis). As you may recall, Dunn was the lone survivor of a train derailment who came to realize he was impervious to pain. Comic book store owner Elijah Price (Samuel L. Jackson), suffering from a disease that cause his bones to break easily, surmised that David was a superhero. And Elijah was the arch nemesis as the 2000 flick revealed he was the evil mastermind behind the train going off the track.
In Split, we were introduced to James McAvoy’s Kevin and almost two dozen other characters that lived inside his head while he tormented teen girls that he kidnapped. From an annoying nine-year old boy to a OCD monster to a proper British dame, his personalities culminated with The Beast, who also possessed super human strength. The surprise ending suggested David will battle The Beast and low and behold – Split made more than enough money for that to occur.
This brings us to Glass. The first act allows this trio of characters to end up in the same mental institution with a psychiatrist (Sarah Paulson) attempting to dissuade them of their perceived powers. Dunn is sensitive to the possibility. The many voices of Kevin has his moments of doubt. Elijah, aka Mr. Glass, is so doped up that we’re not sure he knows what’s going on. However, fans of Unbreakable know the dude is a mastermind.
Glass brings back other characters from its double source material. Charlayne Woodard returns as Elijah’s supportive to a troubling degree mother. Spencer Treat Clark is back as David’s now grown son (Robin Wright skipped out as his wife). And Anya-Taylor Joy reprises her Split role as Kevin’s surviving kidnap victim. Her story arch here is easily the most inexplicable one in a movie filled with often strange choices.
My feelings with Unbreakable and Split are a bit against the grain from many others. I actually dug the former 19 years ago while many found out it to be a disappointing follow-up to TheSixthSense. As for the latter, I enjoyed McAvoy’s bonkers performance greatly but found it as a whole to be a mixed bag. The melding of the two worlds also fits that description. It’s got everything we expect from Shyamalan, including a twist ending or two. This time around, they land with less impact than earlier efforts.
McAvoy is still impressive, but we’ve seen this show before. Unbreakable set itself up perfectly for a world building sequel. Quite frankly, Glass made me wish it hadn’t taken Split for us to get it. More of the Dunn/Elijah dynamic could have been rewarding without these other personalities in the way. Shyamalan’s personality shines through as always as he tries to overwhelm us with style and suspense. Like Split, the result is some memorable sequences amid numerous questionable ones and not the more cohesive whole that I found Unbreakable to be.
It’s the four-day President’s Day weekend at the box office with Valentines Day falling on Thursday. That means the trio of newcomers out are hitting screens during the week. They are Blumhouse horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U, James Cameron penned sci-fi graphic novel adaptation Alita: Battle Angel, and romantic comedy satire Isn’tItRomantic. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Before the weekend began, it was pretty much a given that TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart would repeat rather easily at #1 over this long frame. Now with it’s much less than forecasted debut (more on that below), there’s some uncertainty. What should help is that both DeathDay and Romantic come out on Wednesday with Alita following on Thursday. This particular weekend typically sees small declines for holdovers considering the extra day involved. In 2014, the first LegoMovie dipped a scant 9%. I’ve got the sequel dropping more than that, but I’ve still topping the charts.
That is, of course, if none of the newbies over perform and that’s certainly possible (especially with DeathDay part deux in my opinion). Yet the Wednesday premiere still leads me to think it could be a tad front loaded.
That means I have slots 2-4 reserved for the debuts with WhatMenWant rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I have the high-five shaking out and keep in mind these projections are for Friday through Monday.
1. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
2. HappyDeathDay2U
Predicted Gross: $22 million (Friday to Monday); $28.6 million (Wednesday to Monday)
3. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)
4. Isn’tItRomantic
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (Friday to Monday); $20.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)
5. WhatMenWant
Predicted Gross: $13 million
BoxOfficeResults (February8–10)
It was a weekend with four newcomers and they all came in under my expectations and none more so than TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart. The animated sequel had no problem nabbing the top spot, but it was a hollow victory as it earned $34.1 million. That’s less than half of what its predecessor started with five years ago and well below my $48.6 million prediction. Warner Bros may be forced to rethink the future of the franchise while they cross their fingers for a minimal drop this weekend.
WhatMenWant opened in so-so fashion in second with $18.2 million, below my forecast of $26.4 million. The comedic remake with Taraji P. Henson came in on the low-end of its range.
Same story for ColdPursuit as the Liam Neeson action thriller was third with $11 million (I was higher at $12.8 million). Neeson received all the wrong kinds of publicity in the lead up to the release and it certainly didn’t help.
On a rare positive note for this weekend, TheUpside continued its remarkable hold in fourth with $7 million compared to my $5.8 million take. The gross is currently $85 million as the century club appears assured.
Glass, after two weeks in first, slid to fifth with $6.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and it’s scratching the $100 million mark at $98 million.
Horror flick TheProdigy was sixth with just $5.8 million, in line with my $6.1 million prediction. Look for it to disappear quickly.
After a sleepy box office weekend that’s normal for when the Super Bowl is played (which was sleepy as well), things pick up considerably in this second frame of February. There’s four newcomers that could populate those top four slots. They are the animated sequel TheLegoMovie2: The Second Part, Taraji P. Henson comedic remake WhatMenWant, Liam Neeson action thriller ColdPursuit, and horror flick TheProdigy. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
TheLego follow-up should have little trouble topping the charts, but I have it debuting significantly under the $69 million achieved by its predecessor four years ago.
I have WhatMenWant placing a strong second with ColdPursuit having a middling start in third. The five-spot could be a battle between TheProdigy and holdover TheUpside. The latter should experience a smaller drop than three-week champion Glass, which means it may fall from first to sixth.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. TheLegoMovie2:TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
2. WhatMenWant
Predicted Gross: $26.4 million
3. ColdPursuit
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. TheProdigy
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
5. TheUpside
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
BoxOfficeResults (February1–3)
Super Bowl weekends are never bountiful ones at multiplexes and that held true this year. It was the worst SB frame in 19 years. Glass stayed in 1st with $9.5 million, cutting close to my $9.8 million prediction. Its total is $88 million.
TheUpside was close behind in second with $8.6 million (I said $9.1 million) for $75 million overall.
Action flick MissBala was the sole newbie and it was third with $6.8 million, ahead of my $5.8 million forecast. That’s nothing special, but not too shabby considering the reported $15 million budget.
Aquaman was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $5 million) for $323 million total. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.6 million). The Oscar favorite for Best Animated Feature is up to $175 million.
It should be an extremely quiet weekend at the box office, as it typically is during the Super Bowl frame. There’s only one wide release out and it’s the Gina Rodriguez led action thriller MissBala. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:
I’m not expecting Bala to reach double digits and my estimate probably puts it in third place behind current holdovers Glass and TheUpside (it could go lower). It’s quite possible that no picture will hit double digits this weekend as the 1-2 combo should hover right around that mark.
The rest of the top five should be held by Aquaman and TheKidWhoWouldBeKing, but with the possibility that Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse could vault over King after its weak debut. I’ll say that happens. It’s also feasible that the drop for GreenBook could be insignificant and it could jump into the top five. I’ll put it just behind Spidey, however.
With that, my projections for the uneventful frame ahead:
1. Glass
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
2. TheUpside
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
3. MissBala
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
4. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $5 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (January25–27)
Glass held the top spot with an expected hefty sophomore dip at $18.8 million, in line with my $19.6 million estimate. The M. Night Shyamalan mashup, with middling audience and critical reaction, has made $73 million (which is nearly three times its meager budget).
TheUpside continued its strong holdings in second with $11.9 million (I said $9.8 million) for a three-week tally of $62 million.
Aquaman was third with $7.2 million compared to my $6.4 million prediction. The DC tale is up to a terrific $316 million.
The aforementioned King Arthur based family flick TheKidWhoWouldBeKing got off to a poor start in fourth with just $7.1 million, under my take of $10.8 million.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $5.2 million) for $169 million overall.
Finally, the Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway crime thriller Serenity bombed in eighth position with only $4.4 million. I was a bit higher at $5.1 million.
Two new titles attempt to gather eyeballs this weekend with the kiddie rendering of the King Arthur legend TheKidWhoWouldBeKing and Matthew McConaughey/Anne Hathaway thriller Serenity. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I’ll say the Kid manages to just top double digits and that could give it a second place showing. As for Serenity, my mid single digits forecast of $5.1 million puts it just outside the top five in sixth.
Current champ Glass should have little trouble staying in first place, but I am predicting a sophomore frame drop of over 50% due to middling critical and audience reaction.
Holdovers TheUpside, Aquaman, and Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse should round out the top half of the charts. As for DragonBallSuper: Broly, it debuted with terrific results this past weekend (more on that below). However, I anticipate a front-loaded nature for its earnings and a fall in the mid 50s range. That puts it outside the top 5 in my view.
Here are my projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Glass
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. TheKidWhoWouldBeKing
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
3. TheUpside
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Aquaman
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
BoxOfficeResults (January18–21)
The long MLK weekend saw M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass rule with the third highest opening of this particular holiday at $46.5 million. That is a bit below expectations and under my $58.1 million estimate. However, it nearly doubled its reported $25 million budget in four days.
TheUpside went down to second with $18.3 million, ahead of my $15.4 million prediction. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama stands at a strong $46 million after two weeks.
Aquaman was third with $12.7 million (I said $13.8 million) as it crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.
The aforementioned DragonBallSuper: Broly was fourth with a fantastic $11.9 million over the traditional weekend and $22 million since its Wednesday premiere. I’ll sheepishly admit that the anime feature was not properly on my radar and I didn’t do a projection for it.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse was in the five-spot with $10.1 million compared to my guesstimate of $8.3 million. Overall haul is $161 million.
ADog’sWayHome was sixth at $9.9 million (I said $9.1 million) for a two-week tally of $24 million.
A juvenile rendering of the King Arthur tale hits theaters next weekend with the family fantasy TheKidWhoWouldBeKing. It comes from director Joe Cornish, whose 2011 debut AttacktheBlock (marking the debut of John Boyega) was a critical favorite. This marks his awaited sophomore effort. The title character is played by newcomer Louis Ashbourne Serkis, son of motion capture king Andy. Costars include Tom Taylor, Rebecca Ferguson, and Patrick Stewart.
Early reviews are encouraging with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 85%. It could help that the family friendly holiday holdovers have started to wane. That said, the marketing campaign hasn’t been robust and followers of the filmmaker’s first feature belong in a niche market.
I think Kid could manage to hit double digits while teens could be a reach. That might get it to second place next weekend behind the sophomore frame of Glass.
TheKidWhoWouldBeKing opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
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