Box Office Predictions: January 3-5

The new year at the box office will be rung in with a pretty sturdy horror franchise in the form of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, opening Friday. Unless it greatly doesn’t match expectations, the fifth entry in the series should open atop the charts with the rest being filled by holiday leftovers. You can find my detailed prediction post on The Marked Ones here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/29/paranormal-activity-the-marked-ones-box-office-prediction/

Christmas holdovers usually fall in the 30s to low 40s during the first weekend of the next year and I expect we’ll see that occur here. My predictions reflect Disney’s Frozen having one of the lower declines which should allow it to remain at #2 while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should end its three-week reign at number one and fall to third. I expect American Hustle and Anchorman 2 to round out the top five. This means Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street should drop out of the top five in its second weekend. While it had a healthy debut (grossing $34 million over five days), audiences were polarized by it, evidenced by its weak C Cinemascore average.

And with that, my predictions for the top six at the box office during weekend #1 of 2014:

1. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $19 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. American Hustle

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 38%)

6. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 41%)

This would be a great time to remind you of the website www.boxofficeace.com – where you can make your own predictions on the opening weekends of new box office entries. This week would be a fantastic time to start (only takes a sec to set up profile) because the competition begins anew with 2014 rolling in. On the site, you can compete against me and see if you can make box office predictions better than yours truly.

And there you have it! Check by Saturday for early updates on the blog’s Facebook page and Sunday with final results!

Box Office Results: Christmas 2013 Weekend

There was a whole bunch of new movies that opened Christmas Day, but numbers 1-4 were occupied by holdovers. The Wolf of Wall Street was the top newcomer while The Secret Life of Walter Mitty had a just OK opening and 47 Ronin, Grudge Match, and Justin Bieber’s Believe disappointed.

For the third weekend in a row, it was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug at the top spot with $29.8 million – above my $25.7M estimate. The middle chapter in Peter Jackson’s Tolkien trilogy has earned $190 million in its three weeks of release so far.

Disney’s Frozen was close behind with $28.8 million, surpassing my $22.1M projection. The animated feature has grossed an impressive $248 million so far and should go north of $300 million when all is said and done.

Ron Burgundy and company were third with Anchorman: The Legend Continues earning $20.1 million in weekend #2, right in line with my $19.6M estimate. Anchorman has made $83.6 million so far, nearly matching the entire domestic gross of the original.

David O. Russell’s awards contender American Hustle was fourth with $19.5 million – beyond my $14.9M projection. Hustle has grossed $60 million in two weeks and is very likely to cross the century mark at some point.

It was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street taking honors as top newbie. The three hour sex and drugs fest with Leo DiCaprio made $18.5 million over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend and $34.3 million since its Wednesday debut. While this is below my respective estimates of $25.4M and $44.2M, this is still a solid opening. Where Wolf could soon falter is with its C Cinemascore average. Audiences are clearly not liking what they’re seeing and there could be rather substantial drop-offs in future weekends.

Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks had a big jump in its second weekend with $14 million for sixth, above my $10.6M estimate. It’s earned $37.8M in two weeks.

Ben Stiller’s comedic drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty was seventh with $13 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $25.5 million since the Wednesday start, outpacing my projections of $11.7M and $19.3M. This opening could best be described as middle of the pack and it’ll be interesting to see how it holds up over the next couple of weekends.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was eighth with $10.2 million, above my $7.7M projection. Fire has made $391 million since its November opening, currently sits at #18 for all-time domestic grossers, and still looks to top Iron Man 3 as 2013’s biggest hit.

The martial arts flick with Keanu Reeves 47 Ronin opened at ninth with $9.8 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $20.5 million since Wednesday. It earned under my predicted three-day estimated (I said $11.4M) but over my five-day estimate ($17.8M). Look for it to fade fast.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas rounded out the Top Ten with $7.4 million (I didn’t predict it would be in the top ten).

This left the Sylvester Stallone/Robert De Niro comedy Grudge Match at #11 with a very poor opening well below my expectations. Match grossed $7.3 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $13.4 million since Wednesday. I thought it would do much better and predicted $13.9M for the three-day and $24.5M for the five-day. Oops. This is Stallone’s third bomb of the year after Bullet to the Head and Escape Plan.

Finally, Beliebers totally failed to turn out for his documentary Believe. It sputtered at #14 with $2 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $4.2 million since the Wednesday start. I predicted it would do $5.8M for the three-day and $10.3 million for the five. Oops again.

Whew. And there’s your Christmas weekend box office results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction next weekend’s only newcomer, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.

Box Office Predictions: Christmas Weekend 2013

It’s the most wonderful time of the year and, at multiplexes, by far the most crowded time of the year! On Christmas Day, five pictures enter an already crowded marketplace. They are: Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, the boxing comedy Grudge Match with Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller’s fantasy drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, martial arts flick 47 Ronin with Keanu Reeves, and the Justin Bieber documentary Believe. You can read my individual posts on all five at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-secret-life-of-walter-mitty-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

By my estimates there will be nine – yes, nine – movies that gross double digits over the weekend. And there may well be a fierce battle for #1. In this same holiday weekend last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell only 13% in its third weekend and I expect current #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to fall no further than 20%. This should put it in a neck and neck race with my prediction for Wolf of Wall Street.

Disney’s Frozen stands an excellent chance of gaining audience from last weekend and it too has an outside shot at the top spot. Another title I expect to post gains: Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks which had a rather middling opening this past weekend at $9.3 million but should benefit from positive word of mouth.

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues had a solid opening ($40 million over five days), but it was at the lesser end of expectations. Still, the holiday time frame should prevent it from suffering a large decline. The same can be said for American Hustle, which started strong out of the gate last weekend with $19.1 million.

One thing is for sure: the film calendar doesn’t get more crowded than this. After that, many things are highly uncertain but here’s my best guesses for the Christmas 2013 Top Ten:

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 18%)

2. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million ($44.2 million predicted for five-day opening)

3. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing an increase of 13%)

4. Anchorman: The Legend Continues

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)

5. American Hustle

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)

6. Grudge Match

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million ($24.5 million predicted for five-day opening)

7. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million ($19.3 million predicted for five-day opening)

8. 47 Ronin

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million ($17.8 million predicted for five-day opening)

9. Saving Mr. Banks

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing an increase of 15%)

10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

These predictions would leave Justin Bieber’s Believe out of the top ten and likely in the #12 slot behind the second weekend of Walking with Dinosaurs.

And there you have it! My predictions for Christmas 2013. Of course, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week with final results Sunday. And have yourself a Merry little Christmas, my friends!

Box Office Results: December 20-22

In a result that surprised yours truly, Ron Burgundy and company couldn’t dislodge Gandalf and company from the top spot at the box office in this crowded pre-holiday weekend.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug remained #1 for the second week in a row with an estimated $31.4 million – exactly on target with my $31.5M projection. Peter Jackson’s middle chapter in the franchise has earned $127.5M in its ten days of release.

This left Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues in the two spot and well below my projected opening. The sequel to the 2004 original made $26.7 million over the Friday to Sunday frame and $40 million since its Wednesday debut. I had it earning $41.9M and $61.2M, respectively, over those time periods. While the opening is decent, this is clearly below my overzealous expectations. Furthermore, audiences seem a bit disappointed with what they’re seeing as they awarded it a B Cinemascore grade, which is rather low.

There was a virtual tie for the #3 spot as Disney’s Frozen took in $19.1 million. I incorrectly had it left out of the top five. Oops. The animated pic has earned $191.5M since its November premiere. David O. Russell’s American Hustle also made $19.1 million, just under my $20.5M projection. This is a solid debut for the critically lauded comedy/drama and its per-screen average was almost identical to that of the Anchorman sequel.

Coming in fifth but well below my estimate was Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks. It started out of the gate rather slowly with $9.3 million, way under my $17.1M projection. Banks will count on very low drop-offs over the next few weekends and the chances of that are good with its A Cinemascore grade.

Finally, the animated 3D tale Walking with Dinosaurs was a huge disappointment with an 8th place opening at $7.3 million. I predicted it would earn $18.9M. Oops again. Family audiences are still choosing Frozen over this new offering.

Today on the blog – you’ll see the movie marketplace getting even more crowded as I’ll post predictions for all five features opening Christmas Day: The Wolf of Wall Street, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, and the Justin Bieber doc Believe. Stay tuned!

Box Office Results: December 13-15

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t manage to reach the heights of its predecessor last year as it opened to $73.6 million over the weekend, below my $77.9M prediction. In my post about Smaug, I opined that anything below $75M would likely be considered a letdown and it must be noted that Smaug earned over $10M less than An Unexpected Journey did last year. We’ll see how it holds up over the next couple of weeks.

With a smaller than expected decline in weekend #3, Disney’s Frozen was second with $22.1 million, above my $17.1M estimate. The animated tale has earned $164 million so far and should eventually surpass $250M mark.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was the disappointing performance of Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas. Audiences interest in the character is clearly waning as Christmas posted the lowest opening of any pic in the franchise with $16 million. This is less than half of my generous $33.7M prediction. No Madea flick had made less than $25 million in their openings until now so this is a considerably weak debut for Mr. Perry and company.

Rounding out the top five: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at four with $13.1 million (just above my $12.3M prediction) and Thor: The Dark World at five with $2.7 million (just above my $2.5M projection).

Be sure to check the blog today as my predictions will roll in on Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Saving Mr. Banks, American Hustle, and Walking with Dinosaurs.

Box Office Predictions: December 13-15

Two very different sequels open this Friday at multiplexes and, collectively, I’m predicting they will inject over $110 million in business to the box office. We have The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas debuting and you can read my detailed posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/tyler-perrys-a-madea-christmas-box-office-prediction/

I would anticipate the top two of the past couple of weekends – Disney’s Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – to drop to third and fourth. In the five spot, I expect a bigger fall for this weekend’s #3 Out of the Furnace than the current #4 Thor: The Dark World. This should allow the Marvel property to just drop one place into fifth.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

3. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

I’ll have an update posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday!

Box Office Results: December 6-8

As predicted, Disney’s animated Frozen overtook The Hunger Games: Catching Fire for the top spot at the box office this weekend, but both titles earned a bit less than my estimates.

Frozen took in $31.6 million in its second weekend for #1, below my $34.8M prediction. Disney’s feature has made $134 million since its Thanksgiving opening. An eventual gross in the $250M range seems likely.

In weekend #3, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire dropped to second with an estimated $27 million, under my $32M prediction. This massive sequel has earned $336M since its debut and still looks on pace to become 2013’s highest grossing picture.

Out of the Furnace, the crime thriller with Christian Bale, flopped with only $5.3 million for third place. I gave it a bit too much credit with a $9.6M prediction. Rounding out the top five: Thor: The Dark World in fourth with $4.7 million (just under my $5.2M estimate) and Delivery Man in fifth with $3.7 million (just over my $3.5M estimate).

Be sure to check the blog later when I’ll roll out my predictions for two very different sequels – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas.

Box Office Predictions: December 6-8

The post Thanksgiving box office weekend is usually a fairly sluggish one and there’s only one new title joining the fray – the Christian Bale crime thriller Out of the Furnace. You can read my full prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/01/out-of-the-furnace-box-office-prediction/

Unless it majorly underwhelms (which is somewhat possible), Furnace is pretty much assured the #3 spot for its debut. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen appear destined to duke it out for the #1 slot.

Catching Fire is entering its third weekend and post Thanksgiving blockbusters typically drop below 50% in December’s first weekend. For instance, 2011 and 2012’s Twilight entries dipped 60% in their third frames over the same weekend. Catching Fire may not drop quite that far, but it should be close.

On the other hand, Disney’s Frozen opened at #2 over Turkey Day weekend with the best opening for the holiday of all time. Its chances of not falling over 50% seem better and, if that happens, Frozen would catapault to first and Fire would fall to second.

Thor: The Dark World should be fourth in its fifth weekend while Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man and The Best Man Holiday should fight it out for the five spot. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 57%)

3. Out of the Furnance

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

As always, I’ll have final results on the blog this Sunday!

Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving 2013

It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.

You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.

Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)

3. Black Nativity

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Homefront

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)

6. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. The Book Thief

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)

8. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

9. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

10. Philomena

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)

This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.

I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!

Frozen Box Office Prediction

My onslaught of Thanksgiving box office predictions which includes six films opening or expanding begins with Disney’s animated Frozen, loosely based on Hans Christian Andersen’s fairy tale The Snow Queen.

The story of princesses and reindeer and (yes) a snow queen is likely to capture the attention of family audiences over the long holiday weekend. Reviews have been strong and it currently sits at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. Frozen will look to follow the same box office pattern as Tangled, which the studio opened over turkey weekend three years ago. That film captured $49.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday weekend and $68.7 million over the long Wednesday to Sunday frame.

It’s hard to imagine Frozen not having just about those same numbers this year. I don’t see it debuting much bigger than Tangled and don’t see it opening much smaller. Disney should be pleased with the results of their 53rd animated feature.

Frozen opening weekend prediction: $48.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $69.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)