30th Critics’ Choice Awards Reaction

The 30th Critics’ Choice Awards aired this evening and this body had some tricks up their sleeve with some seriously surprising selections. Leading up to Best Picture, you would’ve been right to count out Sean Baker’s Anora. It had emerged victorious nowhere, even in the races where it was supposed to like Original Screenplay. I listed it as my runner-up to The Brutalist. Fun fact: this is your first CCA BP to not receive any other wins.

Let’s not start writing those Anora will take the Oscar BP columns. While it is certainly a possibility, just half of the previous 10 CCA BP recipients repeated with the Academy. If it manages to grab PGA tomorrow, it could rightfully become the soft frontrunner.

I went 13 for 21 overall in my picks. While Anora‘s sole win in BP was unexpected, the biggest shocker was easily in Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) was widely anticipated to sweep through the season and then CCA went and named Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He’s not even nominated for the Oscar. When’s the last time the Critics’ pick wasn’t up for the Academy’s trophy? That would be Ben Affleck for Argo and before that, you must go back to 2002 when they gave it to Steven Spielberg for his double feature of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can.

My against the odds selection was Mikey Madison (Anora) over Demi Moore in The Substance. I should’ve gone bigger with my Anora upset calls. Moore did get Actress just as with the Globes. In fact, all the acting winners are also Globe takers: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for its sole prize tonight in Actor and supporting players Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. The Moore/Brody/Saldaña/Culkin combo could absolutely be the Oscar quartet and they are certainly the favorites.

As for other categories, here’s where I was right:

Conclave in Adapted Screenplay; Emilia Pérez as Foreign Language Film and The Wild Robot in Animated Feature; A Real Pain is Best Comedy though it tied with Deadpool & Wolverine (so I guess I was half right); Wicked in Costume Design and Production Design; The Substance for Hair & Makeup, Challengers for Original Score; “El Mal” from Pérez in Original Song; and Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects.

Where I went wrong:

The Substance scored an out of nowhere win over BP Anora in Original Screenplay. Maisy Stella (My Old Ass) is the Best Young Actor/Actress instead of Izaac Wang in Dídi. Conclave is Best Ensemble over Wicked. In Cinematography, it’s Nosferatu and not The Brutalist. Challengers took the Editing category and not Anora.

What’s it all mean for BP? The Brutalist could’ve solidified frontrunner status tonight and it didn’t. The fact that Anora didn’t win anywhere else? Confusing. And we do have 4 legit acting favorites. Let’s see if PGA and DGA can muddy the waters tomorrow…

Here’s the win total for the various pictures in contention

3 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

2 Wins

Challengers, Conclave, A Real Pain

1 Win

Anora, The Brutalist, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, My Old Ass, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

Oscars: The Case of Wicked

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered nine of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The final entry in this competition is Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.

The Case for Wicked:

If Best Picture were (ahem) a popularity contest, the adaptation of the iconic stage play would fly away with the gold. The worldwide tally is $722 million and counting and that’s just ahead of Dune: Part Two‘s global take. It tied for the second most Academy nominations at 10 (along with The Brutalist) contending in Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Precursor BP nods were achieved at the Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA and it’s also up for Ensemble at SAG.

The Case Against Wicked:

There are some key misses as BAFTA passed it by and it lost at the Globes in Best Film (Musical or Comedy) to Emilia Pérez (before recent controversy). Despite the double digits noms, the omissions for Chu’s direction and Adapted Screenplay are noteworthy. The voters could figure they can wait until part two coming later this year to honor it.

The Verdict:

Down the line victories in Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound in particular appear doable. I wouldn’t completely discount a Wicked BP win, but it’s a long shot. If it manages to take Ensemble at SAG, expect chatter to rise. I’d still be skeptical.

My Case Of Posts will continue with our first Best Actress hopeful and that’s Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

Oscars: The Case of The Substance

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered eight of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The next entry is The Substance from Coralie Fargeat.

The Case for The Substance:

Undoubtedly one of the buzziest (and bonkers) cinematic experiences of 2024, The Substance landed five nominations with Fargeat’s direction, Best Actress (Demi Moore), Original Screenplay, and Makeup and Hairstyling in the mix. Actress and Makeup and Hairstyling are particularly possible for victories. As far as precursors, BP noms were achieved at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA.

The Case Against The Substance:

The Academy doesn’t typically hand out BP wins for the body horror genre. It might be a little too out there for some voting members. While its precursor performance was impressive, it missed the BP cut at BAFTA. The only two pics in the 21st century to miss BAFTA and take the top prize at the Oscars are 2004’s Million Dollar Baby and 2021’s CODA. It fell short to Emilia Pérez in the Musical or Comedy competition at the Globes.

The Verdict:

The Substance has the stuff to be an Oscar recipient next month, but not in BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with Wicked

Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

After a seven year absence from the big screen, Sony hopes families are itching to watch Paddington in Peru over the Valentine’s/Presidents’ Day long weekend. The third feature in the franchise mixing live action/animation has Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Based on Michael Bond’s children’s books, Ben Whishaw returns to voice the titular bear. Other cast members include Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas, Imelda Staunton, Carla Tous, and Hayley Atwell.

Just over a decade ago, Paddington kicked off to $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $25.4 million over the extended MLK frame of 2015. Three years later, Paddington 2 started on the same holiday weekend to lesser results ($11 million for the three-day and $15 million when counting Monday). That’s despite fantastic reviews for the sequel as it notably sports a 99% RT rating.

Critical reaction for Peru is at 93% on that site though most notices say it falls short of its predecessors. In the United Kingdom, it achieved the best debut of the trilogy. The lengthy wait between features could prevent that from happening stateside though it is certainly achievable. I do think it will manage to outpace the second tale.

Paddington in Peru opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Captain America: Brave New World prediction, click here:

77th Directors Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

In this busy awards weekend (Critics Choice is tomorrow and PGA on Saturday), the Directors Guild also weighs in with their best of on Saturday. The winner of the DGA Feature Film race correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time. That would be 21 of 24 occurrences in the 21st century. The guild also honors filmmakers in the documentary field and those making their first feature.

Let’s walk through all 3 competitions with a winner selection and a runner-up.

Feature Film

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

The only difference between the Academy’s quintet and here is Berger in this mix and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) in contention for Oscar. This is a very easy pick. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t take BP at the big show (and that’s quite possible), Corbet is the overwhelming favorite.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Is there one? I suppose Sean Baker in Anora

Documentaries

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev (Porcelain War), Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie (Sugarcane), Johan Grimonprez (Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat), Ibrahim Nash’at (Hollywoodland), Natalie Rae and Angela Patton (Daughters)

There is less of a match with DGA and Oscar in this competition. Porcelain, Sugarcane, and Soundtrack are all up at the Academy while Daughters was an unexpected snub. This is admittedly guesswork with Oscar frontrunner No Other Land contending but I’ll roll with Porcelain.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, Porcelain War

Runner-Up: Natalie Rae and Angela Patton, Daughters

FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Megan Park (My Old Ass), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel (Armand), Sean Wang (Dídi)

All five pics have their admirers, but this should come down to Kapadia vs. Ross. I’m giving the latter the slight edge.

PREDICTED WINNER: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

I’ll have recap up (along with PGA) this weekend!

36th Producers Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

Seven of the last 10 PGA top prize winners ended up winning Best Picture at the Oscars. The 36th edition of their awards ceremony takes place Saturday and the guild also honors documentary and animated features.

Let’s walk through all 3 races with my predicted winner and a runner-up and some brief commentary.

Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance, Wicked

In this wide open BP derby, this is where momentum could truly be achieved (coupled with Critics Choice this weekend). I believe Dune, Pain, September, and Substance are the only nominees with no real shot. I’ve been consistent with The Brutalist being slotted first in my BP rankings over the last several weeks. I’ll stay with that, but if it comes up short here… the narrative could change.

PREDICTED WINNER: The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures

Flow, Inside Out 2, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Like this category at other awards shows, this should come to Flow v. Robot and I’m giving the latter an edge (unlike the Globes where I correctly called Flow).

PREDICTED WINNER: The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

Outstanding Producer of Documentrary Theatrical Motion Pictures

Gaucho Gaucho, Mediha, Mountain Queen: The Summits of Lhakpa Sherpa, Porcelain War, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, We Will Dance Again

PGA often marches to their own drum with the docs. That’s true this year as Porcelain War is the only feature listed among this group that’s also up for Oscar. Therefore it might be the safer bet, but I’m going with Super/Man.

PREDICTED WINNER: Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Runner-Up: Porcelain War

I’ll have a recap up this weekend!

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Winner Predictions

The Critics’ Choice Awards hold their 30th ceremony this Friday after being delayed nearly a month due to the California wildfires. The Chelsea Handler hosted affair could certainly provide clues as to where Oscar could go in various competitions.

For some context, here’s how many times the CCA victor in some high profile races have matched with the Academy in the previous decade:

Picture: 5/10

Director: 8/10

Actress: 6/10

Actor: 6/10

Supporting Actress: 8/10

Supporting Actor: 9/10

Unlike the Oscars where my speculation goes on for months and across scores of posts, this is quick and to the point. Here are my winner predictions with a runner-up named. I’ll have a recap up shortly after the show.

Best Picture

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Anora

Best Director

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

PREDICTED WINNER – Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

PREDICTED WINNER – Mikey Madison, Anora

Runner-Up: Demi Moore, The Substance

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

PREDICTED WINNER – Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

PREDICTED WINNER – Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

PREDICTED WINNER – Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Conclave

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

PREDICTED WINNER – Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST COMEDY

Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma

PREDICTED WINNER – A Real Pain

Runner-Up: Saturday Night

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)

PREDICTED WINNER – Izaac Wang, Dídi

Runner-Up: Elliot Heffernan, Blitz

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, September 5

PREDICTED WINNER – Anora

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – The Substance

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST SCORE

The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot

PREDICTED WINNER – Challengers

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SONG

“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

PREDICTED WINNER – “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Compress/Repress” from Challengers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked

PREDICTED WINNER – Dune: Part Two

Runner-Up: Better Man

That means I’m projecting that these pictures win these numbers of CCAs:

4 Wins

The Brutalist

3 Wins

Anora, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

2 Wins

A Real Pain

1 Win

Challengers, Conclave, Dídi, Dune: Part Two, The Substance, The Wild Robot

Oscars: The Case of Nickel Boys

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered seven of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The next entry is Nickel Boys from RaMell Ross.

The Case for Nickel Boys:

With 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 91 Metacritic, Nickel Boys has sat atop or near the top of many critics best of lists. Precursor attention in BP came from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Nickel Boys:

The Case for Nickel Boys above will be the shortest of the bunch. While it landed noms at the Globes and Critics Choice, victories are non-existent and it missed at BAFTA and didn’t make the PGA cut. It is up for only one more Oscar in Adapted Screenplay and therefore has the fewest nominations of all 10 BP hopefuls. That means no directing love for RaMell Ross and no acting contestants. This is not a recipe that equals BP.

The Verdict:

Don’t bet on Nickel as an argument could be made that it’s 10th of the 10 contenders in terms of winning possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Substance

February 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Slasher flick Heart Eyes and action comedy Love Hurts hope to achieve audience affection this weekend while competing with holdovers and a little football game on Sunday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Sony’s Heart Eyes looks to fright fest fans and teens and, in this genre, there’s always the possibility of exceeding expectations. It might get to the teens, but I have it in the lower double digits for a runner-up showing.

Recent supporting category Oscar winners Ke Huy Quan and Ariana DeBose (and Super Bowl victor Marshawn Lynch) tackle Love Hurts. Universal would heart a start in double digits and especially teens though I suspect it could struggle to get there. My estimate puts it in third.

As for holdovers, DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man opened impressively (more on that below) and it should be top dog once again. The sophomore outing drop could be in the mid to high 40s.

Companion, despite a solid (at least for horror) B+ Cinemascore grade, may dip in the mid to high 40s as well with Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days in a close call for fifth.

Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:

1. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

2. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. Love Hurts

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

4. Companion

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)

Dog Man lapped all competitors with room to spare as the animated tale (tail?) based on Dav Pilkey’s works scored $36 million, well ahead of my $25.4 million projection. With an A Cinemascore grade, look for this to eye nine digits stateside.

Companion‘s second place showing was in line with expectations at $9.3 million, a tad under my $10.6 million call. The well-reviewed mix of horror, sci-fi, and satire only had a reported $15 million price tag so this is a decent result.

Mufasa: The Lion King was third with $6.3 million (I said $6.5 million), bringing the Disney property’s seven-week haul to $229 million.

Buddy comedy One of Them Days was fourth, holding up well in weekend #3 with $5.8 million (on target with my $6 million prediction). The total is $34 million,

Finally, as estimated, Flight Risk with Mark Wahlberg lost altitude in its second go-round. Plummeting from first to fifth, it made $5.4 million (a 53% ease). That’s close to my $5.7 million take as its ten-day earnings are $20 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscars: The Case of I’m Still Here

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered six of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is I’m Still Here from Walter Salles.

The Case for I’m Still Here:

The Brazilian drama has been a critics favorite ever since it debuted in Venice where it won the Best Screenplay prize. The love is evidenced by the 95% Rotten Tomatoes score coupled with its 99% Audience Score on that site. It is a threat to win its other two nominations for International Feature Film and Actress (Fernanda Torres) based on the growing momentum.

The Case Against I’m Still Here:

It was unquestionably the surprise nominee on nomination morning that few (including me) predicted. Here missed the BP cut with precursors including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. While it was up for Foreign Film at the Globes, it lost to Emilia Pérez. This could just as easily go for 0 for 3 on Oscar night and I’d say it’s the frontrunner in none of its competitions. The 3 nominations is the second lowest of the 10 hopefuls (ahead of 2 for Nickel Boys). Salles hasn’t been nominated anywhere for his direction and that rarely bodes well for BP viability.

The Verdict:

While I’m Still Here is generating increased visibility, I’d say International Feature Film and not Best Picture is where it could emerge over Pérez (which has faced unwanted headlines in recent days due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media history).

My Case Of posts will continue with Nickel Boys