Florence Pugh’s Supporting Actress nod in Greta Gerwig’s Little Women is next up in my Case of posts!
The Case for Florence Pugh
The actress broke out in a major way in 2019 with well-reviewed roles in the wrestling dramedy Fighting with My Family, Ari Aster’s horror pic Midsommar, and in this latest iteration of Louisa May Alcott’s classic novel. Even though Saoirse Ronan is nominated for Best Actress, it was Pugh who got a lions share of critical attention. Pugh’s ascendance into the mainstream will blossom even more in 2020 with a prominent role alongside fellow Supporting Actress nominee Scarlett Johansson in the MCU’s Black Widow. If the Academy wants to pick a young upstart, this is the way to go.
The Case Against Florence Pugh
She missed out on both Golden Globe and SAG nods and that’s never a solid sign. Laura Dern, her Little Women costar, is the massive front runner for Marriage Story.
The Verdict
A solid 2019 for Pugh culminated in this nomination. It won’t end in a win.
My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Todd Phillips for Joker!
The MCU will undeniably be the captain this weekend at the box office as CaptainMarvel blasts into multiplexes. The pic comes off a banner 2017 for the studio that saw BlackPanther and Avengers: InfinityWar dominate the year. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My forecast north of $150 million gives it the seventh largest opening of the franchise. I believe it will help tremendously that it’s seen as a bridge between InfinityWar and next month’s Avengers: Endgame.
No other studio bothered to open anything against the MCU juggernaut. That means two-time champ HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld will dip to second position. TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral opened well, but it should experience a rather hefty decline as other Madea titles have. Holdovers Alita: BattleAngel and TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart might be close vying for fourth place.
And with that, my top 5 take on the Marvel-ous weekend:
1. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $154.4 million
2. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
3. TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral
Predicted Gross: $11 million
4. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. TheLegoMovie2:TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (March1–3)
As mentioned, HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld stayed atop the charts for a second time despite Madea. The Dreamworks Animation pic took in $30 million, a bit under my $32.2 million projection. It’s staring at the century mark with $97 million.
Tyler Perry has claimed AMadeaFamilyFuneral is the character’s swan song. If so, she went out on a high note with $27 million compared to my $22.8 million estimate. That’s the franchise’s third best starting haul.
Alita: BattleAngel was third with $7.2 million (I said $6.3 million) for $72 million overall.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart was fourth with $6.6 million. I was lower at $5.3 million. It’s built its earnings up to $91 million.
FightingwithMyFamily was fifth at $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five. It’s made $14 million in two weeks.
Greta was the weekend’s non-Madea newbie and it debuted in eighth place with a ho-hum $4.4 million. I had it at $5.6 million.
As the Oscars aired last night, it seems appropriate as 2019’s Best Picture front-runner TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral opens this weekend and tries to dislodge HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld from the top spot after its franchise best opening. We also have the horror drama Greta with Isabelle Huppert and Chloe Grace Moretz out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Mr. Perry may have to settle for second place as I have the alleged Madea finale getting a low 20s start (the possibility of mid to high 20s is certainly feasible). Dragon exceeded expectations and may see a low 30s sophomore frame.
As for Greta, it’s being released on a surprisingly hefty 2000 screens. I still think it will struggle and settle for fourth after Alita: BattleAngel, with TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart rounding out the top five.
And here’s my projections for the weekend ahead:
1. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $32.2 million
2. TylerPerry’sAMadeaFamilyFuneral
Predicted Gross: $22.8 million
3. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
4. Greta
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
BoxOfficeResults (February22–24)
As mentioned, the Dreamworks Animation franchise finale Howto Train YourDragon: TheHiddenWorld rode out on a high note with $55 million, easily surpassing my $44.7 million prediction. In this young year, that’s the largest opening thus far (CaptainMarvel will change that in short order).
Alita: BattleAngel dropped to second with $12.3 million, in line with my $12.9 million forecast for a two-week tally of $61 million.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart was third with $9.6 million compared to my $11.2 million take. Overall earnings are $83 million.
The wrestling biopic FightingwithMyFamily expanded nationwide and was fourth with $7.8 million, not matching my $10.8 million projection.
Isn’tItRomantic rounded out the top five with $7.1 million (I said $6.1 million). It’s made out with $33 million.
Dreamworks Animation hopes to jolt the box office from a poor President’s Day weekend with the release of franchise finale HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld. We also have the nationwide expansion of the wrestling biopic FightingwithMyFamily entering the ring. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Dragon should have zero trouble opening atop the charts with my mid 40s projection. That puts it in range with its two predecessors.
The fight for the #2 spot could get interesting. This post holiday frame often sees large drops for holdovers. I expect that will apply to current champ Alita: BattleAngel and Isn’tItRomantic in particular. Family has sleeper potential, but I have it falling below Angel and TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart, with Romantic rounding out the top five.
And here are those estimates for a weekend ending with crowning Oscar winners:
1. HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld
Predicted Gross: $44.7 million
2. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. FightingwithMyFamily
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Isn’tItRomantic
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
BoxOfficeResults (February15–18)
As mentioned, this holiday weekend marked the poorest one for President’s Day (with Valentine’s Day falling on Thursday) in a decade and a half. And it was especially weak considering this frame last year marked the massive debut of BlackPanther. That said, some features managed to exceed my expectations while one in particular definitely didn’t.
Alita: BattleAngel took in $33.5 million from Friday to Monday and $42.2 million counting its Thursday earnings. This is well above my respective predictions of $19.7 million and $24.8 million. So while I certainly failed to give the science fiction action tale its due, this is still underwhelming considering its reported gigantic budget.
TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart dropped to second with $27.7 million, on target with my $27.8 million take. It’s made $62 million in two weeks.
Rom com satire Isn’tItRomantic premiered in third with $16.6 million and $22.8 million since its midweek rollout. That topped my expectations of $14.3 million and $20.7 million.
In its sophomore outing, WhatMenWant was fourth at $12.2 million (I said $13 million). The total is $37 million.
Finally, Blumhouse horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U opened in fifth and that was surprising. I thought it even had at a shot at first, but it earned a measly $11 million over the long weekend and $14.7 million counting Wednesday and Thursday numbers. My forecasts of $22 million and $28.6 million were a little off… However, the silver lining for its studio is that it only cost about $9 million.
WWE Studios hope to get fans out of the arena and into the multiplexes next weekend with the release of FightingwithMyFamily. The comedic drama is a biopic of female English wrestler Paige and her quirky brood. She’s played by Florence Pugh. Stephen Merchant (best known for his acting and collaborations with Ricky Gervais) directs with a supporting cast including Jack Lowden, Nick Frost, Lena Headey, and Vince Vaughn. The world’s most famous brawler turned thespian Dwayne Johnson executive produces and plays himself.
Family premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to rather strong reviews. It stands at 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. With a reported budget of just $11 million, this should have no trouble turning a profit.
It’s a little tricky to figure out how this sport’s fans will turn out. The film is being released on a very limited basis tomorrow in four venues and it will be worth keeping an eye on its per theater average. Some may choose to simply wait for the On Demand release and watch this tale like they typically view wrestling itself. The participation of Johnson only helps, however. I’ll estimate that this basically grosses its budget out of the gate.
FightingwithMyFamily opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
For my HowtoTrainYourDragon: The Hidden World prediction, click here:
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