Fede Álvarez, best known for his Evil Dead remake and Don’t Breathe, takes over a classic 45-year-old franchise when Alien: Romulus touches down on August 16th. Set between the events of Alien and Aliens, the seventh entry in the series (not counting those two battles with Predator) features Civil War‘s Cailee Spaeny, David Jonsson, Archie Renaux, Isabela Merced, and Spike Fearn.
Originally conceived as a Hulu streaming release, 20th Century Studios rethought their strategy to allow a summer theatrical bow. This is the first Alien feature in seven years since Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant and the first since Disney acquired the property.
If Romulus matched the $36 million that Covenant started off with, that should be considered a win. I say that because the predecessor plummeted after its first weekend and grossed an underwhelming $74 million overall domestically.
I’ll project that this gets a bit under that starting Covenant figure as it’ll hope to have sturdier legs in subsequent weekends.
Alien: Romulus opening weekend prediction: $35.2 million
For my Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure prediction, click here:
There’s one shining moment in Evil Dead Rise due to a bloodily gushing elevator and plenty of moments that are indistinguishable from other gory possession tales. That’s somewhat of a letdown for this franchise that is known for its demonically goofy trilogy that began the careers of Sam Raimi and Bruce Campbell over four decades ago. While some of its boo moments stand out, Rise falls short of its immediate predecessor which “re-imagined” the series a decade ago with Fede Alvarez directing.
The 2013 Dead iteration left a lot of the previous movies humor on the cutting room floor and Rise keeps that up. Lee Cronin takes over the directorial reigns and the mayhem moves from a cabin in the woods to an about to be condemned Los Angeles apartment complex. Ellie (Alyssa Sutherland) is a newly single mom to teenagers Danny (Morgan Davies), Bridget (Gabrielle Echols), and youngest child Kassie (Nell Fisher). They’re among the last denizens of their building slated for demolition. Beth (Lily Sullivan) is Ellie’s sister who is a guitar technician (according to her) or a groupie (according to her more responsible sibling). She drops in to visit to share some news (she’s preggers), but an earthquake shakes up and delays the announcement.
This act of nature also leads to the discovery of a Book of the Dead tome locked away in a vault. As with previous volumes, the reading material causes wicked forces to possess those near it. Ellie is the first to fall prey to its devilish influence.
Besides the Shining elevator material that would not be advisable for those with hemophobia, there’s also the grisliest use of a wood chipper since Fargo. The picture’s connection to its own franchise is mostly in name only and the fact that they all feature chainsaws. Its makeup effects and choreographing of red splatter is first-rate. You could say the work of the technicians behind Evil Dead Rise is just fine. I suspect, due to its lack of originality, it’ll have less groupies than the others.
Evil Dead Rise books passage into multiplexes ten years after Sam Raimi’s franchise was rebooted the first time around to lively box office results. Like its 2013 predecessor (which this is not a sequel to), it premiered to praise at South by Southwest in March. Lee Cronin directs a cast including Lily Sullivan, Alyssa Sutherland, and Morgan Davies.
The original Evil Dead from 1981, its 1987 sequel, and 1993’s Army of Darkness from Raimi and star Bruce Campbell are horror comedy classics with deeply devoted followings. When Fede Álvarez’s reboot arrived a decade ago, it received some criticism for lacking the humor of the original trilogy. Nevertheless it debuted to $25 million and that turned out to be a front loaded start as it ended with $54 million domestically.
Rise‘s reviews are far stronger with a Rotten Tomateos score of 94% (compared to 63% for 2013’s effort). While audiences have certainly seen their share of the genre as of late with Scream VI, Renfield, and The Pope’s Exorcist, the brand name and solid buzz might mean $20 million plus is doable. That said, the market is feeing oversaturated and low to mid teens could be the result.
Evil Dead Rise opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:
Horror sequel summer continues next weekend on Friday the 13th. In addition to A Quiet Place Part II, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, The Forever Purge, and Escape Room: Tournament of Champions, we now have Don’t Breathe 2. Arriving five years after the Fede Alvarez directed original scored solid reviews and over performed at $89 million domestic, Rodo Sayagues takes over behind the camera (with Alvarez cowriting and producing). Stephen Lang is back as the blind vengeance seeker with Brendan Sexton III and Madelyn Grace among the supporting cast.
While part 1 made an impact with critics and audiences, a half decade is a surprisingly long time to wait to bring part 2 to light. The first Breathe kicked off with over $26 million at the tale end of summer 2016. I wouldn’t expect that here. The best comp could be The Forever Purge, which took in $12.7 million over its Friday to Sunday frame. That would give this about half of what its predecessor made out of the gate. I’ll go a bit below that due to the overabundance of scary sequels as of late.
Don’t Breathe 2 opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
The sci-fi adventure Chaos Walking, on its surface, seems to have a lot going for it. It’s based on a well regarded series of YA novels by Patrick Ness (who cowrote the screenplay). Doug Liman, maker of successful pics like The Bourne Identity, Mr. and Mrs. Smith, and Edge of Tomorrow, directs. The two stars are instantly recognizable faces from recent franchises blockbusters: Daisy Ridley (Rey from Star Wars) and Tom Holland (the current Spider-Man). And Lionsgate ponied up a reported $125 million to make it.
Yet closer inspection reveals a different story as it opens next Friday in multiplexes. Chaos was originally slated for release all the way back in pre-COVID March 2019. Poor test screenings allegedly forced reshoots which were overseen by Don’t Breathe director Fede Alvarez. The pandemic has shifted the drop date once again from January of this year to early March.
Now it appears the high budget Walking is limping its way into theaters in already uncertain times. In addition to its stars, the supporting cast includes Mads Mikkelsen, Demian Bichir, Cynthia Erivo, Nick Jonas, and David Oyelowo. I’m not even confident that the awareness level of its existence is enough to bring in the intended audience. This has been looked at as a potential major flop for some time and I don’t foresee this exceeding any expectations upon release.
Chaos Walking opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
For my Raya and the Last Dragon prediction, click here:
In 2011, TheGirlwiththeDragonTattoo billed itself as the “feel bad” movie of the Christmas season. It was an apt description due to its bleak subject matter stemming from the series of Stieg Larsson bestsellers. However, the film itself left a very positive impression with its stylish direction from David Fincher and fine lead performances from Rooney Mara and Daniel Craig.
It’s taken some time for Hollywood to come up with their second iteration of the franchise (there were three Swedish entries a decade ago). This time around, the players from Tattoo are MIA and they wisely removed themselves. Fincher only executive produces. Mara’s Oscar nominated turn as Lisbeth Salander is now portrayed by Claire Foy. Craig’s journalist Mikael Blomkvist is now represented by Sverrir Gudnason. The harsh material and winter that accompanies it are still present.
Unlike the 2011 adaptation, TheGirlintheSpider’s Web (based on David Lagercrantz’s book following Larsson’s death) is not an example of bad meaning good. Sadly it’s just plain bad most of the time. In ways that were only hinted at in Tattoo, Lisbeth’s backstory is explored in detail here. She’s a child of a nasty abusive father that she managed to escape from. Her mission of avenging women from lousy men is provided more context. Lisbeth has a sister that didn’t get to loosen herself from her father’s grip. And she grows up to be Sylvia Hoeks’s character, who inherits many of the sadistic patriarchal traits.
Web has a tangled plot involving a McGuffin that reveals the global nuclear codes (how familiar). Lisbeth is hired by a conflicted programmer (Stephen Merchant) to retrieve it. The programmer, in a lame plot twist, has a young son who is the only one capable of unlocking the device’s codes. The American government, led by a sullen NSA agent (LaKeith Stanfield), want it back. So does Lisbeth’s sibling and her bevy of thugs who go by “The Spiders”.
I haven’t mentioned Blomkvist yet. He’s in the picture for plenty of minutes. As played by Gudnason, he’s also totally forgettable. The romantic dynamic between that character and Lisbeth was the bloody heart of Tattoo. Here it’s basically ignored and inconsequential. Mara and Craig clicked in the predecessor. Blomkvist is a dull blank slate in this.
Fede Alvarez is behind the camera and he’s a talented filmmaker as proven by his EvilDead remake and Don’tBreathe. He does his best to bring some visual flair and succeeds a few times. He’s no Fincher though. Many of the action sequences are routine. I don’t look for plausibility in stuff like this. Yet the sight of Lisbeth getting herself out of impossible scenarios over and over again based on her being a walking super computer grows tiresome.
Foy is a fine actress who tries her best to provide some emotional heft to the lead role. This pseudo-sequel doesn’t deserve her. Tattoo made its feel bad mark in highly satisfying fashion. Spider’sWeb feels like a fake.
Blogger’s Note (11/08/18): And another revision down to $9.4 million
Blogger’s Note (11/05/18): I am revising my estimate down to $11.7 million from original estimate of $13.7 million
The Girl in the Spider’s Web makes its way to stateside multiplexes next weekend nearly seven years after David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Mr. Fincher is nowhere to be found nor is Rooney Mara as computer hacking heroine Lisbeth. Claire Foy takes over the title role with Don’t Breathe maker Fede Alvarez directing. Costars include Sverrir Gudnason, LaKeith Stanfield, Sylvia Hoeks, Stephen Merchant, and Vicky Krieps.
It’s based on the wildly popular series of novels began by the late Stieg Larsson. This one in particular is adapted from the 2015 book by David Lagercrantz. The long layoff and different personnel involved could present some box office challenges. Reviews are mixed thus far as it stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes. There’s also direct competition in the form of Overlord, which will be vying for much of the same audience.
Comparing numbers with Tattoo is a tricky proposition. That eagerly awaited pic’s traditional opening weekend number was $12.7 million, but that’s with a huge asterisk. It opened Christmas weekend of 2011 when the holiday fell on a Sunday. Tattoo rolled out on Wednesday and Monday was counted as part of a long weekend. So its six-day earnings totaled out to $27.8 million. At the end of its run, it made $102 million.
Web is highly unlikely to approach those earnings. While it certainly could technically match Tattoo‘s traditional Friday to Sunday debut, there will be none of that extra holiday dough. I actually think a fair comp is September’s Peppermint with Jennifer Garner at $13.4 million and that’s right in the range of where I have Spider landing.
The Girl in the Spider’s Web opening weekend prediction: $9.4 million
On November 9, TheGirlintheSpider’sWeb drops in theaters stateside. It had its premiere at the Rome Film Festival and reviews are out. The film is a continuation of adaptations of the bestselling Swedish crime novels originated by Stieg Larsson (this particular book was penned by David Lagercrantz). If it seems odd to have an Oscar Watch post up for the thriller, don’t forget that 2011’s TheGirlwiththeDragonTattoo nabbed five nominations: Best Actress (Rooney Mara), both Sound races, Cinematography, and Editing (which it won).
This version finds Claire Foy taking over the lead role of Lisbeth as she follows in the footsteps of Mara and Noomi Rapace before that. Don’tBreathe director Fede Alvarez takes over top duties after David Fincher made Dragon. Costars include Sverrir Gudnason, Sylvia Hoeks, LaKeith Stanfield, Stephen Merchant, and Vicky Krieps.
Early reaction is quite mixed and Web appears highly unlikely to match the many kudos that went to Fincher’s film. Critics are pointing out Foy as a highlight, but I wouldn’t look her to be a factor at all in Best Actress. Lucky for her, she is a definite factor in Supporting Actress with the already released FirstMan.
Bottom line: while Tattoo garnered Academy attention, don’t look for voters to stamp their approval here. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
A home invasion horror flick where the home invaders are kind of the good guys, Don’tBreathe is a pretty nifty and sometimes nasty little experience. It comes from Fede Alvarez, who’s shown himself as a gifted filmmaker in the genre after making 2013’s EvilDead remake.
We open with three Detroit youngsters who earn some pocket change ripping off nice cribs. It’s rather easy work for them because nice guy Alex (Dylan Minnette) has a dad with a home security business, giving him access to precious info. There’s the harder edged Money (Daniel Zovatto) and his gal Rocky (Jane Levy), who Alex has a crush on. Rocky is our central heroine character. She lives in a low income Motor City neighborhood with a very trashy mom, her loser boyfriend, and a sweet younger sister that she wants to show a better life. I half expected Eminem to rap during her background scene.
The trio get a tip on a new property to focus on and it’s not a typical one. The new mark is a military vet who resides in a poor neighborhood where the homes around him are abandoned. Yet they believe there’s a lot of green there as he received a big settlement after his daughter was killed in an auto accident. It’s a large enough potential payout to send them California dreamin’, so off they go.
What they discover is this robbery victim is unlike any other. First, he’s blind. He’s also got a vicious dog and a casa with all kinds of surprises in store. This sets up a scenario where the criminals become the hunted in The Blind Man’s twisted playhouse.
The occupant is played with supreme creepiness by Stephen Lang. A character actor who’s impressed in all kinds of roles, it’s a kick to see him let loose here. As a side note, he was also the best thing in the long forgotten Michael J. Fox/James Woods buddy cop comedy TheHardWay 25 years ago in which he also played one disturbed dude. The rest of the cast looks appropriately mortified during their during their terrible, horrible, no good, very bad burglary. For that reference, look up Minnette’s filmography. I had to in order to remind myself what I’d seen him in before.
There’s some twists that come later and the main one is a demented doozy. With its grindhouse title and lower end budget to match, Don’tBreathe should please slasher enthusiasts with its welcome uncomplicated story. When we are introduced to one character unexpectedly, the levels of plausibility are stretched greatly if you seriously ponder it. However, we don’t go into pics like this holding our breath for that nor should we care. This delivers enough of the goods that we honestly don’t.
****BLOGGER’S UPDATE #2 (08/25/16): Finally relenting with Don’t Breathe to give it the #1 spot at $12.4 million. That’s not as high as most prognosticators, but it basically assures it the top spot. The change is reflected below.
Next weekend, the makers of the Evil Dead reboot are back with Don’t Breathe, a horror pic that is garnering early positive reviews. Fede Alvarez directs with Sam Raimi producing in this tale of some teenagers robbing a blind man’s home. That man (played by veteran character actor Stephen Lang) turns out to be quite a force to be reckoned with. Jane Levy and Dylan Minnette costar.
The film premiered at the South by Southwest Film Festival this past spring to good notices. It currently stands at 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s been a solid summer for horror – as The Conjuring 2 and Lights Out both performed well (especially the latter considering its tiny budget). Lights benefited from a simple concept and critical acclaim, yet I’m not sure that will be repeated here. The late August release date has not been kind to the genre over the past few years. Last summer’s Sinister 2 managed just $10.5 million and that was a sequel to a well-regarded predecessor. The best comparison might be 2013’s You’re Next, another well-reviewed title that only grossed $7 million for its start. I’ll say this manages to top that, but not by too much.
I’ll predict Don’t Breathe tops that meager figure, but not by much at all.
Don’t Breathe opening weekend prediction: $12.4 million
For my Mechanic: Resurrection prediction, click here:
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