Three new releases (not the originally planned four) roll out Christmas Day to compete with holdovers The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie. They are Disney’s musical fantasy Into the Woods, Angelina Jolie’s adaptation of the bestseller Unbroken, and Mark Wahlberg’s crime drama The Gambler. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the new entries here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/into-the-woods-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/20/unbroken-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/22/the-gambler-box-office-prediction/
Of course, there was a fourth movie planned for release called The Interview. If you’re not familiar with happened there, you can turn on cable news or open your Twitter or Facebook feed.
I expect Into the Woods and Unbroken to post similar results for second and third place finishes behind current champ The Hobbit. It is worth noting that some prognosticators have Woods outdoing my estimate and it’s certainly possible.
During the Christmas holiday weekend, it’s not uncommon for some films to gain audience from the previous weekend and I’m predicting modest gains for family fare Museum and Annie.
Wahlberg’s Gambler is likely to settle for a sixth place debut. And with that, my predictions for the Christmas weekend’s top 6:
1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Predicted Gross: $42.4 million (representing a drop of 23%)
2. Into the Woods
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $30.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)
3. Unbroken
Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $28.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
4. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing an increase of 10%)
5. Annie
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing an increase of 7%)
Box Office Results (December 19-21)
Peter Jackson’s third and final Hobbit pic dominated the box office while not quite reaching the numbers I predicted. Its Wednesday release was a bit more front loaded than I anticipated. It took in $54.7 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend – under my $67.1M estimate. However, its five day take of $89.1 million was on track with my $93.6M forecast. This is a solid start for the end of the franchise and the fact that its second weekend falls on Christmas will help it.
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb showed that the franchise is seriously running out of steam as it grossed just $17.1 million out of the gate, under my $25.4M estimate. Perhaps the five year wait from the second and third entries was too long as its fans have simply grown up.
The critically reviled Annie had a ho-hum debut with $15.8 million, just under my $17.6M prediction. It should gain some audience for Christmas, but this has to be below what the beleaguered Sony expected.
Exodus: Gods and Kings, as anticipated, fell hard in weekend #2 to $8.1 million, a bit under my $9.7M prognosis. The Ridley Scott epic, which was met with critical scorn, has earned an unimpressive $38M so far.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 rounded out the top five with $7.8 million (on pace with my $8M prediction). Its earned $289M at press time.
Finally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild debuted in sixth place with $4.1 million, not matching my $5.8M estimate. Its Oscar buzz (for Reese) could mean slow drop-offs in subsequent weekends.
And that’s all for now, folks! Have a very Merry Christmas!