**Blogger’s Note (12/09): National Champions is only being released on approximately 1100 screens. I am revising my projection from $3.2 million to $1.6 million. That puts it outside the top five. Eternals moves to the 5 spot.
After a sluggish post Thanksgiving weekend, theater owners are hoping that Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story provides pleasing numbers in the frame before Spider-Man: No Way Home looks to set pandemic era records. We also have the sports drama National Champions looking to make a play. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newcomers here:
After a year long delay, the West Side remake has generated mostly glowing reviews and Oscar buzz. It should easily open in first place. That said, December pics (especially those with awards chatter) often start a little slow and hope to leg out during the holidays and January. A debut over $20 million would be fantastic, but I’ll project low to mid teens is more plausible.
As for Champions, I’m not anticipating much and it may find itself at the bottom of the top five.
Holdovers should fill the rest of the chart with Encanto, Ghostbusters: Afterlife and House of Gucci sliding down a spot.
Here’s how I see it:
1. West Side Story
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
2. Encanto
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
3. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
4. House of Gucci
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (December 3-5)
Holiday leftovers filled with the top 3 slots as December kicked off. A pic I didn’t factor in nabbed the 4 position. Nearly all the returnees fell a tad short of my projections.
As expected, Disney’s Encanto stayed at #1 with $13.1 million, a shade below my $14.1 million take. Two-week total is $58 million with $100 million firmly in its sights.
Crossing the nine digit milestone was Ghostbusters: Afterlife in second with $10.3 million (I went with more at $12 million). After three weeks, the ‘Busters have crossed that milestone with $102 million.
House of Gucci was third in its sophomore frame with $7 million (I said $7.8 million). Tally is $33 million.
I had a blind spot in fourth courtesy of Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers. The limited release event featuring inspirational holiday music released on 1700 screens and made $4.1 million. I simply didn’t have it on my Yuletide radar.
Eternals closed out the high five with $4 million. My prediction? $4 million!! It’s the second weekend in a row where I correctly called the MCU adventure and it’s made $156 million.
Back at it next week as Spider-Man and Nightmare Alley debut!
The National Board of Review bestowed their honors today for their finest of 2021 and they delivered it to Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. The coming-of-age dramedy took Best Film and Director. The awards certainly solidify its status as a major contender in the Picture race at the Oscars. In the 21st century, only 3 of the 21 winners (2000’s Quills, 2014’s A Most Violent Year, last year’s Da 5 Bloods) did not manage to make the Academy’s cut. On the flipside, the victorious picture here usually doesn’t win. In this century it’s happened thrice (2007’s No Country for Old Men, 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire, 2018’s Green Book). So if we’re going by recent history, Pizza should get nominated but probably won’t take the gold.
This voting branch also names nine other movies in their Best Of rundown. Over the past five years, the number of NBR selections compared to Oscar BP contestants ranges between 4-7. In 2016, it hit the high mark at 7. There were six in 2017 and 2019, five in 2020, and just four in 2018. The other nine films in 2021 are Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, The Last Duel, Nightmare Alley, Red Rocket, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and West Side Story. From that list, I would say only Duel and Rocket seem like major longshots to get attention from the Academy. All others are feasible.
The biggest omission from NBR’s list is absolutely Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, which I’ve had ranked at #2 in my BP standings for awhile. The solace for Dog is that two recent BPs (2017’s The Shape of Water, 2019’s Parasite) didn’t make the NBR ten. Other pics that missed NBR: Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon, CODA, House of Gucci, Mass, Spencer, and Tick Tick… Boom!
As for the actors – Will Smith (the Academy frontrunner) took Best Actor for his King Richard while costar Aunjanue Ellis won Supporting Actress. Both are widely expected to play in the Oscar race and either or both could win.
NBR did not choose Academy favorite Kristen Stewart for Spencer and opted for Rachel Zegler in West Side Story (her debut role). I had Zegler placed sixth yesterday in the crowded Actress derby, but she could be on her way to making the final five cut.
The wide open Supporting Actor derby favored Ciaran Hinds for Belfast. I am completely unsure what the Academy does in this race. This could forward a narrative that Hinds is more likely to receive Oscar attention than his costar Jamie Dornan (though they could both get in).
Screenplay races provided a couple of surprises. Pizza would have been the logical choice for Original, but NBR instead chose Asghar Farhadi’s A Hero. In Adapted, Joel Coen was selected for The Tragedy of Macbeth (which also took Cinematography). Most pundits (including myself) have Power of the Dog as the winner, but the category opened up on this platform since it missed the ten.
Lastly, the Animated, Documentary, and Foreign Language races all featured movies that could prevent Flee from taking any of the three prizes at the Oscars: Encanto, Summer of Soul, and A Hero.
My blog posts on the state of the 2021 Oscar race will continue…
As December dawns, the story of my latest Oscar predictions is West Side Story. Steven Spielberg’s remake of the musical has been in my ten Best Picture nominees for some time. However, the solid buzz emanating from screenings gives it a bump from #8 to #4. Additionally, Spielberg is now in my five for Director and that takes out Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley.
Speaking of Alley, we will have a far better idea of its viability later today when it gets its first look from critics and the social embargo is lifted. It’s fair to say that Alley is the final major contender to be unveiled and that makes an even clearer picture will be available for my next round.
In other developments:
While my five Best Actress picks remain the same, Rachel Zegler’s performance in West Side Story jumps from 10th to 6th.
The five slot in Best Actor shifts once again from Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) to Peter Dinklage in Cyrano.
Rita Moreno’s work in West Side Story puts her in the five for the first time (and top ten for that matter). If my prediction comes true, she could join costar Ariana DeBose (who plays the role for which Moreno won her Oscar sixty years ago). It would also make her the oldest nominee in Academy history. Ann Dowd (Mass) falls out of the 5.
The wide open Supporting Actor derby sees Jamie Dornan (Belfast) in and Jason Isaacs (Mass) out.
King Richard returns to Original Screenplay over C’Mon C’Mon, which goes from 3 estimated nods in my previous post to zero.
West Side Story makes the cut for Adapted Screenplay to the detriment of The Humans.
Flee drops from the #1 spot in Animated Feature with Encanto in. Yet it rises to first in Documentary Feature over The Rescue.
You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (E)
4. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 12) (+1)
12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
15. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spencer
Flee
Mass
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mass (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spencer
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. CODA (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Humans (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Encanto (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Flee (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (E)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (E)
10. Vivo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlotte
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Drive My Car (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Flee (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Titane (PR: 6) (E)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Memoria
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Rescue (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Procession (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Attica (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The First Wave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. President (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ailey
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spencer (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)
8. King Richard (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being the Ricardos
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Spencer (PR: 4) (+1)
5. Cruella (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (E)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Green Knight
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-2)
8. King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)
10. “The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spencer (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (E)
10. King Richard (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Tick Tick… Boom!
The Matrix Resurrections
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Free Guy (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Finch (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Suicide Squad
And that equates to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
West Side Story
8 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Spencer
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Flee
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, The Lost Daughter
1 Nomination
Belle, Drive My Car, Encanto, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Humans, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
While the COVID era has altered the release patterns of movies in significant ways, the first weekend of December is not that unique from what we’ve seen in pre pandemic times. It will be a quieter frame filled with the holiday leftovers and no newbies out in wide release. That could mean the top five will stay the same with one probable exception.
Disney has made a habit out of releasing their animated titles over the Thanksgiving frame and that resulted in Encanto topping the holiday charts. Looking at previous Mouse Factory premieres over the past several years, Coco dropped 46% in its second frame in 2017 while Moana fell 50% the year prior. I will basically split the difference with Encanto and that means a low teens gross.
That should be enough to keep it #1 over Ghostbusters: Afterlife, which may lose about half its audience in weekend #3. House of Gucci, after a solid start, might see a drop in the mid 40s and that should easily keep it in third. Eternals looks to hold the four spot.
The only change could be Clifford the Big Red Dog going back in the top five. While I have it experiencing a decline of over 50%, I suspect Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City (after a disappointing debut) could plummet in the mid 60s and that would remove it from the high five.
Here’s how I see it going down:
1. Encanto
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
2. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $12 million
3. House of Gucci
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Clifford the Big Red Dog
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (November 26-28)
It wasn’t the bountiful harvest of Thanksgivings past, but audiences managed to turn up for two newcomers while mostly ignoring a third.
Encanto took in $27.2 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $40.5 million since its Wednesday start. That didn’t reach my projections of $31.2 million and $46.5 million, respectively. The debut is only about half of what previous Disney animated features like the aforementioned Moana and Coco achieved. Yet it’s still the best animated opening in COVID times.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife held up well in second with $24.2 million, a bit shy of my $27 million prediction. The two-week total is $87 million as it looks to hit $100 million in the coming days.
Adult crowds finally turned up for something and they went gaga for House of Gucci. The Ridley Scott pic fashioned a third place showing with $14.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $22 million since Wednesday. That tops my estimates of $12.3 million and $19.8 million.
Eternals was fourth with $7.9 million. My guess? $7.9 million! The MCU adventure stands at $150 million.
The reboot Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City was badgered at the box office with just $5.3 million for the weekend and $8.8 million for the five-day. That falls well under my takes of $7.7 million and $11.7 million.
Holdovers outside the top five also couldn’t match my projections. Clifford the Big Red Dog was sixth at $5 million (I said $6.9 million). Total is $43 million. Will Smith’s Oscar hopeful King Richard is a bonafide disappointment theatrically. I thought it might have a meager decline in its sophomore outing, but it earned $3.2 million for seventh place. I said $4.8 million and the ten-day tally is a mere $11 million.
The French language animated effort The Summit of the Gods premiered at the Cannes Film Festival this summer and is in limited release prior to its Netflix bow on November 30th. From director Patrick Imbert, Summit is based on a Japanese manga series and is receiving praise from critics across the board with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.
The mountaineering tale set around Mount Everest could be a trendy spoiler pick to make the five selections competing for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. It’s certainly doable, but it will need to climb past several other viable contenders. Disney has three potential hopefuls with Encanto, Luca, and Raya and the Last Dragon. Foreign competitors Flee and Belle may both make the cut and Netflix also has The Mitchells vs. the Machines.
That competition makes it a challenge for Summit‘s inclusion, but the solid reviews could assist in nabbing it a spot. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Sing 2 is likely to make loud box office noises when it’s released December 22nd. The sequel to the animated musical comedy arrives five years after the original took in $270 million domestically. From Illumination Entertainment, Garth Jennings returns to direct as do the voices of Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Nick Kroll, Taron Egerton, Tori Kelly, and Nick Offerman. Newbies include Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Pharrell Williams, Letitia Wright, Eric Andre, and Bono.
Despite part one being a smash hit, it did not manage to nab a Best Animated Feature nod. The first Sing achieved a decent 71% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s just a handful of reviews out for the follow-up and it’s currently lower at 60%.
With a trio of Disney efforts (Encanto, Luca, Raya and the Last Dragon), two Netflix properties (The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Summit of the Gods), and acclaimed foreign features Flee and Belle all in the mix, Animated Feature is already crowded. I don’t foresee a sequel to something that couldn’t get in the first time around being viable.
In Best Original Song, a band that Bono started that you might be familiar with (U2) has “Your Song Saved My Life”. This is another category with plenty of high profile contenders (Beyonce and Billie Eilish among them). Bono and his mates probably won’t make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Hollywood is hoping for a bountiful harvest over the long Turkey Day weekend. We have three newbies premiering: Disney’s animated Encanto, Ridley Scott’s murderous melodrama House of Gucci with Lady Gaga and Adam Driver, and franchise reboot Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The Mouse Factory, as it has over numerous Thanksgiving frames in recent years, should top the charts… should. While I don’t have Encanto nearing the grosses that titles like Moana and Coco have accomplished for the holiday, my low 30s Friday to Sunday estimate has it edging out the sophomore weekend of Ghostbusters: Afterlife.
The latter had a start at the higher end of projections (more on that below) and if it falls in the high 30s, it could challenge Encanto for box office supremacy.
Gucci is a big question mark. I have it comfortably in third with a lower double digits take for the traditional weekend and close to $20 million for the five-day (all newcomers hit theaters on Wednesday). Gaga’s fans in particular could vault it to better numbers. On the other hand, mixed buzz could put it lower.
Resident Evil is a series that experienced its smallest opening weekend with its previous sixth installment The Final Chapter in 2016. It made just shy of $14 million. I’m not optimistic with Raccoon and I believe it could find itself in a close battle with Eternals for the four spot.
As for leftovers, Clifford the Big Red Dog and King Richard (after a disappointing premiere) are likely to post minimal declines. Yet both could fall outside the top five.
And with that, let’s do a top 7 this time around:
1. Encanto
Predicted Gross: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $27 million
3. House of Gucci
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $19.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
4. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $11.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. Clifford the Big Red Dog
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
7. King Richard
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results (November 19-21)
Ghostbustin’ made audiences feel good as the long in development sequel took in $44 million. As mentioned, that’s toward the top of prognostications and bodes well for a healthy run ahead. The sci-fi comedy drove past my $38.1 million estimate.
Eternals dropped to second after two weeks in first with $11 million (a touch below my $12.6 million take). The MCU fantasy stands at $136 million.
In third, Clifford the Big Red Dog slid a bit more than I figured in weekend #2 with $8.1 million (I went with $10.5 million). Total is $33 million.
I have to think Warner Bros. is questioning their choice to simultaneously release Will Smith’s sports drama King Richard on HBO Max. Serving up a weak fourth place debut, it made just $5.4 million. Not approaching my $9.2 million projection, it will hope for minimal declines ahead (and boffo HBO numbers).
Dune rounded out the top five with $3.1 million, below my $4.2 million prediction as it’s approaching the nine figure mark with $98 million.
Ten days makes a heckuva difference this time around for my Oscar predictions as there are updates in every major category expect Director! The biggest story: Being the Ricardos has established itself as a contender in numerous races based on initial screenings. We also have the rise of C’Mon C’Mon. These two pics have entered my ten Best Picture hopefuls and that’s to the detriment of Spencer and The Tragedy of Macbeth.
Additionally:
Nicole Kidman’s portrayal of Lucille Ball in Ricardos vaults 8 spots to #2 in Best Actress. Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) drops from the forecasted five.
Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) is back in Best Actor and that displaces Peter Dinklage (Cyrano).
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) hits the 5 spot in Supporting Actress and that takes out Ruth Negga (Passing).
I’ve replaced Jamie Dornan in Belfast with his costar Ciaran Hinds in Supporting Actor.
In the screenplay race, Ricardos is in and King Richard is out in Original. For Adapted – Dune gets in over Macbeth.
We also have movement in the top spots. In the wide open Supporting Actor derby, Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) jumps 4 spots to #1. Licorice Pizza replaces Belfast for first in Original Screenplay.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. King Richard (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-2)
12. CODA (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Spencer (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Flee (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Mass (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tick, Tick… Boom!
House of Gucci
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (+8)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alan Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jude Hill, Belfast
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Belfast (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Mass (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Parallel Mothers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. CODA (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Passing (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (-1_
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (E)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (E)
10. Charlotte (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Drive My Car (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Titane (PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Great Freedom
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Procession (PR: 9) (+3)
7. President (PR: 7) (E)
8. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ailey (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (+4)
7. West Side Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spencer (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cruella (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Belfast
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 2) (-2)
5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Guns Go Bang’ from The Harder They Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Belfast (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cyrano (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Cyrano
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Eternals (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Finch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following in terms of movies nabbing these numbers with their nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Don’t Look Up
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, West Side Story
4 Nominations
King Richard, Spencer
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon, Flee, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, Mass, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
Disney has a history opening their animated product over the long Thanksgiving holiday and they’re back at it with Encanto. The Columbian themed musical fantasy comes from directors Byron Howard and Jared Bush, the creative team behind Zootopia. Featuring music from Lin-Manuel Miranda, the voice cast includes Stephanie Beatriz, John Leguizamo, Diane Guerrero, and Wilmer Valderrama.
Reviews are where they need to be with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Mouse Factory rolled out their hits over the same five-day period from 2015-2018. Six years ago, the strategy produced the lowest premiere of the bunch with The Good Dinosaur. It made $39 million for the traditional Turkey Day weekend and $55 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday. The high point came a year later when Moana did $56 million and $82 million respectively. 2017’s Coco took in $50 million from Friday to Sunday and $72 million for the five-day. Ralph Breaks the Internet posted $56 million and $84 million the following Thanksgiving.
The Dinosaur haul was considered a disappointment, but that was during a pre-COVID era. If Encanto accomplishes what that pic did, it would be considered more than satisfactory. Family audiences have proven they’re up for a trip to the theater and have done so in the past few days. Clifford the Big Red Dog was a good boy at the box office when it lapped up $16 million last weekend from Friday to Sunday and $22 million overall as it started on Wednesday as well. If Clifford can do that, I imagine Encanto could double those grosses.
Encanto opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The Best Animated Feature category at the Oscars was established in 2001 and since then, Disney has won the race 14 out of 20 times (including 8 out of the past 9). It’s safe to say they have a distinct advantage in the competition and that’s why Encanto has long been seen as a frontrunner. From 2016 winner Zootopia makers Byron Howard and Jared Bush, it features the voices of Stephanie Beatriz, John Leguizamo, Diane Guerrero, and Wilmer Valderrama.
With songs by Lin-Manuel Miranda, the musical fantasy opens over Thanksgiving and the review embargo lifted today. The current 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating is encouraging. The track “Dos Oruguitas” could put Miranda in the running for an EGOT. For the unfamiliar, that’s winning an Emmy, Tony, Oscar, and Grammy and only 16 people have done it. My guess is that Beyonce and her King Richard song “Be Alive” could prevent that from occurring.
I do believe Encanto stands the best chance of the 2021 Mouse Factory offerings to take the prize over Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon (which may miss the top five altogether). Yet there is a sturdy competitor with Flee, the Danish critically lauded effort that could make history with nods in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, International Feature Film, and maybe even Best Picture. It’s a guessing game at the moment as to which of the first three it wins (if any). My best guess is that the animated competition is where it could do so and that could leave Encanto as runner-up.
That said, betting against Disney has been the correct call just 30% of the time. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
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