The Broadcast Film Critics Association announced their nominees for the Critics Choice Awards today, with the show itself airing January 13. Unlike some precursors, it truly can be a window of what’s to come with Oscar nods… with a significant caveat.
This particular awards ceremony lists six to seven performers and directors in those races. Therefore we know one or two nominees won’t make the cut for the gold statue. As for Best Picture, they do name ten and that’s the highest number the Academy can honor. Critics Choice has a large number of categories, but we shall focus on the top six in today’s analysis and use the last three ceremonies for historical context.
In 2015, all eight Oscar nominated films were named here. In 2016, it was eight of the nine Academy honorees named, with HiddenFigures missing the Critics cut. Last year, it was 8/9 again with PhantomThread as the outlier.
The 10 nominees this year exactly match my current top 10 Oscar possibilities. These selections serve as potential bad news for titles such as CanYouEverForgiveMe?, EighthGrade, FirstReformed, CrazyRichAsians and Widows. If any of them make it in, FirstMan is likely the most vulnerable.
BestDirector
Nominees: Damien Chazelle (FirstMan), Bradley Cooper (AStarIsBorn), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Peter Farrelly (GreenBook), Yorgos Lanthimos (TheFavourite), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice)
Three and five and four. Those are the respective number of nominated directors here from 2014-2016 that made the Academy cut.
The story here is the surprising omission of Barry Jenkins for IfBealeStreetCouldTalk. Whether that is a sign of something to come is questionable. Chazelle, Farrelly, and McKay might have helped themselves a bit today.
BestActor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (AStarIsBorn), Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate), Ryan Gosling (FirstMan), Ethan Hawke (FirstReformed), Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (GreenBook)
2015 saw a five for five match while the last two years have seen four Critics nominees receive Oscar love. As in the previous two races, FirstMan got a boost yet again for the box office disappointment that had previously underwhelmed in precursors. This list not including Robert Redford’s work in TheOldMan & TheGun could mean the end of the road for his potential inclusion.
BestActress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Emily Blunt (MaryPoppinsReturns), Glenn Close (TheWife), Toni Collette (Hereditary), Olivia Colman (TheFavourite), Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn), Melissa McCarthy (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Simple math here. Over the past three years, the five women listed for the Best Actress Oscar have all been mentioned here. By the way, the three winners match as well.
This year is crowded for Best Actress (more so than Actor). Today’s nominations could be best news for Viola Davis (Widows), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Julia Roberts (BenIsBack), Saoirse Ronan (MaryQueenofScots), and Rosamund Pike (APrivateWar).
As for actual nominees, Aparicio and Collette helped their momentum to potentially dislodge one or two of the others.
BestSupportingActor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (GreenBook), Timothee Chalamet (BeautifulBoy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (AStarIsBorn), Michael B. Jordan (BlackPanther)
Unlike the last race, 2015 and 2016 saw four Critics recipients here get Academy attention. Last year, it was three. While Jordan helped himself, we could still see Sam Rockwell (Vice) or possibly Nicholas Hoult (TheFavourite) in the mix.
BestSupportingActress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (FirstMan), Nicole Kidman (BoyErased), Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk), Emma Stone (TheFavourite), Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite)
Five for five match three years ago and four for five the last two years. Right now, these six women are my top six Oscar contenders. If there’s a name not here that could sneak in for Academy voters, perhaps it’s Natalie Portman in VoxLux, though it’s weak limited release debut over the past weekend doesn’t help at all.
It never lets up this time of year with Awards prognosticating. SAG nods will be unveiled Wednesday. I’ll have predictions up in short order with reaction up soon after!
We’ve had Golden Globe nominations this morning and AFI’s top ten list on Tuesday, but my top 10 Best Picture picks for Oscar glory have stayed remarkably the same. In case you missed my recap of those major precursors, you can find them here:
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
10. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 10)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: !)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Widows (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
10. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Boy Erased
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 4)
4. Vice (PR: 6)
5. First Reformed (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
7. Private Life (PR: 8)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
10. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Mule
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 4)
5. Girl (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 5)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
8. Border (PR: 7)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guilty
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 3)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)
7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
8. Early Man (PR: 7)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tito and the Birds
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Free Solo (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
7. Dark Money (PR: 8)
8. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)
9. Science Fair (PR: 10)
10. Quincy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amazing Grace
Best Film Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Black Panther (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 8)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
9. Green Book (PR: 7)
10. Widows (PR: 6)
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
3. First Man (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Cold War (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
3. Vice (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)
5. The Favourite (PR: 5)
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
9. Deadpool 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 2)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 8)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isle of Dogs (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Colette (PR: 7)
8. Widows (PR: 6)
9. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Roma
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 9)
7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 5)
8. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)
9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)
10. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Gravity” from Free Solo
And that correlates to the following movies getting this number of nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite, First Man
9 Nominations
Black Panther
8 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Vice
4 Nominations
Green Book
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, RBG
1 Nomination
Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Girl, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Crazy Rich Asians, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’
The most known precursor to the Oscars unveiled their nominations today. Per usual, there were surprises as some films hopes potentially dim for the big prize with others rising.
As far as my predictions, I went 51/70 overall while going 5/5 in four of the fourteen races. Today I will also make my first predictions for winners with final picks coming a couple of days before the ceremony in January.
Let’s break them all down with a little analysis, shall we?
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born
A bit surprisingly, Bohemian Rhapsody managed to score a nod over my prediction of First Man. I would say that at this juncture, Man is truly a question mark as to whether it garners an Oscar slot for Picture, while its inclusion in tech races still seems assured. Additionally, I think Black Panther helped its cause today to be the first comic book flick to get a Best Picture nomination from the Academy.
Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born
Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice
No surprises here! Picking a winner is far more tough as I believe The Favourite, Green Book, and Vice all have legitimate shots. Both Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Adam McKay (Vice) received Directing nods while Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) did not. That could give those two pictures a slight edge and I’ll put it as a coin toss at the moment.
Predicted Winner: Green Book
Best Director
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
The aforementioned McKay and Farrelly were the ones I didn’t predict. I instead had Lanthimos and Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk). This would seem to be between Cuaron and Cooper and I’ll give the former a tiny edge.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
Best Actor (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Hedges and Washington (a rather genuine surprise) got in over Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Ethan Hawke (First Reformed). Mr. Hawke had been on a roll with critics precursors and this is the first interruption of that. Gosling’s snub continues the troubling trend for First Man. With Christian Bale and Viggo Mortensen in the Musical/Comedy race, this appears to be a clear victory for Cooper.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Best Actress (Drama)
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Both Kidman and Pike helped their cases for Oscar attention here while my predicted nominees of Viola Davis (Widows) and Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) did not. This category appears to be Close vs. Gaga (as it may also be for the Academy). This prediction could and likely will fluctuate.
Predicted Winner: Close
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
No big surprise with Reilly getting in over Nick Robinson (Love, Simon), which was a bit of a wild card pick. Bale and Mortensen are the two winner possibilities and I’m going with the former right now.
I’m giving Colman the win, but this could easily be changed to Blunt at some point.
Predicted Winner: Colman
Best Supporting Actor
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
No Sam Elliot for A Star Is Born was unexpected, with Rockwell continuing the Vice love. Ali should be considered a soft front-runner, but a win for Driver or Grant seems feasible. I’m going for an upset pick, but could revert back to Ali.
Predicted Winner: Grant
Best Supporting Actress
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Adams is probably going to win… for Sharp Objects in the television race for which she’s also nominated. Stone and Weisz could cancel one another out and Foy represents the lone high-profile nod for First Man. That leaves Ms. King and she seems to be a front-runner.
Predicted Winner: King
Best Screenplay
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice
The exclusion of A Star Is Born surprised me with Green Book honored instead. This is a tough one, but I’ll say this ends up being the sole win for The Favourite. Roma and Vice are certainly possible.
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Best Foreign Language Film
Todd’s Performance: 4/5
The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters
Capernaum in, Cold War out. Roma will win. Enough said.
Predicted Winner: Roma
Best Animated Feature Film
Todd’s Performance: 5/5
The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Interent, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
This could certainly be the Academy five. The Hollywood Foreign Press loves their Pixar. Dogs and Spider-Man could threaten, but the safe pick is Incredibles 2.
Predicted Winner: Incredibles 2
Best Original Score
Todd’s Performance: 2/5
The Nominees: A Quiet Place, Isle of Dogs, Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns
Ouch. Didn’t fare well here as I only predicted First Man and Poppins. A shocking omission was Beale Street, which some see as the Academy favorite in this race. Considering its lackluster reception for Man, it could dangerous to pick it over Poppins, but here goes.
Predicted Winner: First Man
Best Original Song
Todd’s Performance: 3/5
The Nominees: “All the Stars” (Black Panther), “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’), “Requiem for a Private War” (A Private War), “Revelation” (Boy Erased), “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
I had two Poppins tracks in and not “Revelation” or “Requiem”. This is going Gaga.
Predicted Winner: “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born).
And there you have it folks! I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up later today…
The Golden Globes, perhaps the biggest precursor of all to the Oscars, unveils their nominees this Thursday as awards prognosticators like me attempt to read tea leaves. As a reminder, the Globes do it a bit differently than the Academy. For Picture and lead acting races, nominees are divided into Drama and Musical/Comedy. Unlike the Oscars, Screenplay is just one category with five pictures, whether they’re original or adapted works.
It should be strong showings for A Star Is Born and The Favourite in particular. Another difference between Globes and Oscar is that foreign features are only honored in their particular category. That’s significant this year as Roma will only be called for Foreign Language Film.
One item to pay attention to – Clint Eastwood’s The Mule. Despite coming out a week from Friday, it has yet to have reviews come out (perhaps this will change by Thursday). If it makes a showing in any of the dramatic races, that could bode well for Oscar attention.
Here are my predictions for the nominees in each category, along with an alternate and a wild card pick. I’ll have my weekly Oscar predictions updated on Thursday and we’ll see if the Globes alter those picks in any way.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Alternate – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Wild Card – The Mule
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
Alternate – Eighth Grade
Wild Card – Private Life
Best Director
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Alternate – Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Wild Card – Damien Chazelle, First Man
Best Actor (Drama)
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate – Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Wild Card – Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress (Drama)
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Wild Card – Toni Collette, Hereditary
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Nick Robinson, Love, Simon
Alternate – John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie
Wild Card – Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Alternate – Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Wild Card – Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Alternate – Smallfoot
Wild Card – The Grinch
Best Foreign Language Film
Cold War
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Alternate – Capernaum
Wild Card – I Am Not a Witch
Best Screenplay
A Star Is Born
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice
Alternate – Green Book
Wild Card – First Reformed
Best Original Score
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate – Widows
Wild Card – Suspiria
Best Original Song
“All the Stars” from Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
“The Shallow” from A Star Is Born
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
Alternate – “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
Wild Card – “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
And that equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:
6 Nominations
The Favourite
5 Nominations
A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Roma, Vice
3 Nominations
Green Book
2 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians
1 Nomination
Black Panther, At Eternity’s Gate, First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Widows, The Old Man & The Gun, Love, Simon, Eighth Grade, Tully, Beautiful Boy, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Cold War, Never Look Away, Shoplifters, Mary Queen of Scots
I’ll have reaction up on Thursday with updated Oscar picks later that day!
We’ve had the Gotham Awards, the National Board of Review, and New York Film Critics Circle transpire over the past week and my Oscar predictions are updated! Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 7)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Vice (PR: 5)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. First Man (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
13. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Mule
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 6)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 8)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 2)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 7)
9. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Reformed (PR: 6)
4. Green Book (PR: 3)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 8)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 5)
5. Burning (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Look Away (PR: 8)
7. Border (PR: 10)
8. Girl (PR: 4)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 6)
10. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I Am Not a Witch
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 4)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 8)
7. Early Man (PR: 6)
8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)
10. Tito and the Birds (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Free Solo (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 7)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)
One of the oldest critics group weighed in on the best of the year this morning as the New York Film Critics Circle bestowed their honors. And the writers of the Big Apple clearly took to Roma, which was victorious for Best Picture, Director (Alfonso Cuaron), and Cinematography.
There’s little doubt the Mexican drama will get a nomination at the Oscars. However, the NYFCC top prize certainly doesn’t ensure a win at the big race. Far from it. You have to go back to 2011 since the Oscar and NYFCC recipients matched – The Artist.
Roma has held the #2 spot in my estimated nominees for weeks behind A Star Is Born. For now, I don’t see that changing.
For Best Actor, Ethan Hawke won for First Reformed and I don’t expect that will be the last of his critics group trophies. Hawke has established himself as a real threat to make the final 5 for the Academy. Additionally, the Screenplay award went to Reformed, furthering boosting the prospect of Paul Schrader getting his first Oscar nod in Original Screenplay.
The NYFCC is known for throwing a surprise in the acting categories (think Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip) and this year was no different. Best Actress went to Regina Hall for the acclaimed indie dramedy Support the Girls. While the exposure here only helps, the Actress race is very crowded and Hall’s inclusion seems quite unlikely at the moment.
Richard E. Grant took Supporting Actor for Can You Ever Forgive Me? in what is shaping up to be a genuine three-person race between him, Mahershala Ali (Green Book), and Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born). Regina King got Supporting Actress for If Beale Street Could Talk as she appears to be the soft front-runner, with Amy Adams (Vice) and the women of The Favourite (Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz) lurking.
In down-the-line categories, Animated Feature went to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (which may just establish itself as a threat to Incredibles 2). Minding the Gap got the Non-Fiction race and Cold War took Best Foreign Language Film.
Other groups will be weighing in soon and I’ll have all the coverage right here!
My weekly Oscar predictions are here and there’s been significant developments in the past seven days!
Vice, MaryPoppinsReturns, and MaryQueenofScots have all held industry screenings. All experienced positive word of mouth. Vice jumps four spots in Best Picture and Poppins is just barely on the outside of my predicted nominees. It could continue to climb. Scots is more of a question mark, but it could gather momentum.
Barry Jenkins (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk) enters my Best Director five, replacing Peter Farrelly (GreenBook). The latter slips in several rankings this week due to its lackluster box office performance.
For the first time, Ethan Hawke’s work in FirstReformed is a predicted nominee. He replaces Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate).
Emily Blunt is in for Poppins, vaulting over Yalitza Aparicio (Roma).
In Supporting Actor, it’s Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) back in over Sam Rockwell (Vice).
For Supporting Actress, Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite) returns over Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 5)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
5. Vice (PR: 9)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
7. GreenBook (PR: 3)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Widows (PR: 10)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Mule (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Boy Erased
Crazy Rich Asians
A Quiet Place
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)
8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
7. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
10. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Here’s some developments from last week to this one:
On the Basis of Sex screened at the AFI Fest and I believe its Oscar hopes in all categories took a significant dip. We’ll see if it can rebound, but it’s dropped out of contention in Picture, Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer), and Original Screenplay with Felicity Jones falling to #10 in Actress.
Speaking of AFI Fest, Mary Queen of Scots debuts this evening at the fest. By this time next week, I’ll have a much better idea as to its prospects.
Both Supporting categories experienced a change. I’ve moved Sam Rockwell (Vice) back in the top 5 with Adam Driver out. I’ve also put Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) in the predicted nominees with Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) out.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. First Man (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 10)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
12. Boy Erased (PR: 15)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)
14. The Mule (PR: 13)
15. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
On the Basis of Sex
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)
3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
9. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 9)
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Widows (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 6)
7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 3)
2. Green Book (PR: 1)
3. Roma (PR: 2)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Reformed (PR: 7)
7. Private Life (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
On the Basis of Sex
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Girl (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
8. Never Look Away (PR: 7)
9. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Border (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dogman
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
4. Mirai (PR: 4)
5. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 6)
8. Early Man (PR: 5)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Grinch
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)
2. Free Solo (PR: 1)
3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amazing Grace (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
9. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Quincy (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Science Fair
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 8)
7. Widows (PR: 6)
8. The Favourite (PR: 5)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
10. Green Book (PR: 10)
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 7)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
8. Widows (PR: 6)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cold War (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 4)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
7. Roma (PR: 9)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colette (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
A Star Is Born
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 2)
2. The Favourite (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)
5. Vice (PR: 4)
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
10. Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Suspiria
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
7. Roma (PR: 6)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Avengers: Infinity War
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 4)
5. Annihilation (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 5)
7. Green Book (PR: 10)
8. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 9)
9. Roma (PR: 7)
10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Suspiria
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)
5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)
8. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
9. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 8)
And that provides the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born
9 Nominations
First Man, The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
5 Nominations
Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Mary Queen of Scots
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, RBG
1 Nomination
Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One, Widows, The Wife, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Minding the Gap.
My weekly Oscar predictions have arrived once again! Some important developments from last week to this one:
Green Book rises and First Man falls. While I still have the latter receiving a Picture nomination, I’ve put in Peter Farrelly (Green Book) over Man maker Damien Chazelle in Director. In Best Actor, Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) gets the nod over Ryan Gosling’s work. In Adapted Screenplay, it’s Widows in and First Man out. With Green Book, it now rises to the #1 spot in Original Screenplay over Roma.
The AFI Fest premieres tonight with the world debut of On the Basis of Sex. We’ll have a lot more info on its Oscar viability in just hours. The same festival will bring us the first screening and buzz for Mary Queen of Scots next week.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
7. First Man (PR: 6)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 12)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)
13. The Mule (PR: 13)
14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 11)
15. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 5)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
9. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Robert Forster, What They Had
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 6)
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Widows (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
8. Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Leave No Trace
Best Original Screenplay
1. Green Book (PR: 3)
2. Roma (PR: 1)
3. The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
7. First Reformed (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Girl (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning (PR: 6)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 9)
8. Border (PR: 10)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)
10. Dogman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Guility
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
4. Mirai (PR: 4)
5. Early Man (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 5)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 10)
8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Night is Short, Walk on Girl
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Science Fair (PR: 5)
9. Quincy (PR: 10)
10. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Price of Everything
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 6)
7. Vice (PR: 5)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
4. The Favourite (PR: 6)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 9)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Cold War (PR: 5)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 3)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Roma (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colette
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. Colette (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)
10. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. The Favourite (PR: 3)
2. Black Panther (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Vice (PR: 5)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
7. Colette (PR: 9)
8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
10. Suspiria (PR: 8)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Roma (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 5)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 7)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 7)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Annihilation (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
5. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Roma (PR: 4)
8. Suspiria (PR: 9)
9. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 10)
10. Green Book (PR: 5)
Dropped Out:
Incredibles 2
Colette
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. “The Places Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 10)
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)
10. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 6)
And that breaks down the following number of nominations for each film:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born
11 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book
4 Nominations
Mary Queen of Scots, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody, Widows
1 Nomination
At Eternity’s Gate, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Annihilation, The Hate U Give, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Early Man, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, RBG, Minding the Gap
My first Oscar predictions in the month of November come with reductions and expansions. I am slimming the list of 25 Best Picture possibilities to 15 and the other major categories from 15 to 10. As you can see, I am also including all of the other feature-length races for the first time from Documentary to Animated Feature to Foreign Language Feature and the techs.
So what are the developments worth discussing? Well…
In these initial projections for all races, A Star Is Born and First Man tie for most nominations with 12 apiece. Truth be told, I’m skeptical that First Man will get there. Its poor box office performance could hinder its possibilities in some races. While I’m relatively confident it will score multiples nods in the technical categories, both director Damien Chazelle and star Ryan Gosling are questionable, even though I currently have them both getting honored.
In Best Picture, BlacKkKlansman rises from 6th to 4th in the list of predicted nominees. It’s a good week in general for the Spike Lee pic as I’m including Adam Driver for the first time in the list of predicted Supporting Actor nominees, replacing Sam Rockwell in Vice.
We got a surprise announcement this week as Kenneth Branagh’s All Is True will open in late December for a qualifying run. The director stars as William Shakespeare in the late stages of his life with a supporting cast including Judi Dench and Ian McKellen. I will likely wait for some buzz before possibly listing it as a predicted nominee. In addition to Picture, Director, acting slots, and screenplay – it has the potential in down the line races such as Costume Design and Production Design. It will certainly be one to keep an eye on.
For Foreign Language Feature, Roma is tops in my first predictions while it maintains its #2 spot in Best Picture. Pixar finds itself in familiar territory with Incredibles 2 leading Animated Feature. In what should be a competitive Documentary Feature race, Free Solo starts out at #1 with Three Identical Strangers close behind.
And with that, here’s what November brings as far as Oscar predictions!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
5. Green Book (PR: 4)
6. First Man (PR: 5)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)
12. Widows (PR: 10)
13. The Mule (PR: 12)
14. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place
Eighth Grade
Boy Erased
Leave No Trace
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mary Poppins Returns
The Hate U Give
Cold War
Ben Is Back
Hereditary
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Steve McQueen, Widows
Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
7. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
10. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 10)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 7)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Kindergarten Teacher
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 14)
10. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Steve Carell, Vice
Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Rachel McAdams, Disobedience
Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Dianne Wiest, The Mule
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 11)
9. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
10. Black Panther (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Boy Erased
Disobedience
The Sisters Brothers
The Wife
Best Original Screenplay
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
5. Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
7. First Reformed (PR: 6)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)
10. The Mule (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ben Is Back
Private Life
Hereditary
Stan and Ollie
Sorry to Bother You
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Shoplifters
4. Girl
5. Capernaum
Other Possibilities:
6. Burning
7. Birds of Passage
8. The Guilty
9. Never Look Away
10. Border
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet
4. Mirai
5. Ruben Brandt, Collector
Other Possibilities:
6. Lu Over the Wall
7. Early Man
8. Night is Short, Walk on Girl
9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
10. Smallfoot
Best Documentary Feature
1. Free Solo
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
4. RBG
5. Science Fair
Other Possibilities:
6. Minding the Gap
7. Dark Money
8. Crime + Punishment
9. The Price of Everything
10. Quincy
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. The Favourite
5. Vice
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows
7. If Beale Street Could Talk
8. Black Panther
9. BlacKkKlansman
10. July 22
Best Cinematography
1. Roma
2. First Man
3. A Star Is Born
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Cold War
Other Possibilities:
6. The Favourite
7. Black Panther
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
9. Widows
10. Mary Queen of Scots
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. First Man
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Mary Queen of Scots
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born
7. Roma
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
9. Colette
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. Colette
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Crazy Rich Asians
7. A Star Is Born
8. If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. The Favourite
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan and Ollie
5. Vice
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Star Is Born
8. Suspiria
9. Colette
10. A Wrinkle in Time
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. A Quiet Place
4. A Star Is Born
5. Incredibles 2
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
7. Avengers: Infinity War
8. Roma
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. Annihilation
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. A Quiet Place
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Poppins Returns
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
7. Roma
8. Incredibles 2
9. Avengers: Infinity War
10. Ready Player One
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Black Panther
4. Ready Player One
5. Annihilation
Other Possibilities
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. A Quiet Place
8. A Wrinkle in Time
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
10. Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Roma
5. Green Book
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots
7. Incredibles 2
8. Colette
9. Suspiria
10. The Sisters Brothers
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther
3. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
4. “The Place Where Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
5. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give
Other Possibilities:
6. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex
7. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born
8. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
9. “I’ll Fight” from RBG
10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud
And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for each feature:
12 Nominations
A Star Is Born, First Man
10 Nominations
The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, Roma
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Cold War, Incredibles 2
1 Nomination
Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Colette, Eighth Grade, Ready Player One, The Hate U Give, The Wife, Capernaum, Free Solo, Girl, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ruben Brandt, Collector, Science Fair. Shoplifters, Three Identical Strangers, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 