The 2021 derby for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars might have a bit more clarity than the currently wide open Supporting Actor race, but not much. I’m doing a deep dive on the four acting races as well as Picture and Director. If you missed the first post covering Supporting Actor, you can peruse it right here:
At this point when I was projecting the race in 2019 and 2020, I correctly identified three out of the five eventual nominees. Two years ago, that included the winner Laura Dern in Marriage Story as well as Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Margot Robbie for Bombshell. Scarlett Johansson was mentioned in Other Possibilities while I didn’t have Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) listed. Last year, the trio of Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Amanda Seyfried (Mank) were in my five. Eventual victor Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were in Other Possibilities.
Since 2010, there have been three instances where two actresses for the same picture made the cut here. In 2010, it was Melissa Leo (who won) and Amy Adams in The Fighter. A year later, Octavia Spencer took gold for The Help while costar Jessica Chastain also got in. In 2018, both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were nominated for The Favourite.
The best chance of that happening in 2021 lies with Caitriona Balfe and Judi Dench for Belfast. The former could be considered the frontrunner at press time. I’m confident that Balfe will be in the quintet of hopefuls. My Supporting Actor forecast has both Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds in for Kenneth Branagh’s period drama. It might be foolish to bet against Dench and she could absolutely get her 8th nod. I do, however, feel the competition is steeper than Supporting Actor at the moment and she could miss out.
Other double nominee possibilities lie with Jessie Buckley and Dakota Johnson in The Lost Daughter, but I could just as easily see lead Olivia Colman garnering all the attention. The as yet unscreened Nightmare Alley could see either Toni Collette or Rooney Mara competing.
Then there’s Mass. Ann Dowd looks to be a better bet than Martha Plimpton. If the acclaimed drama catches on with the Academy, there could be room for both. For now, I’m far more confident in Dowd receiving her first nod after her somewhat surprise omission for 2012’s Compliance.
With Balfe and Dowd penciled in, Kirsten Dunst also appears headed for her inaugural inclusion at the dance for The Power of the Dog. She could even be a threat to win.
After that, it gets murky. There’s plenty of hopefuls. 50 years ago, Rita Moreno took gold as Anita for West Side Story. The forthcoming remake could see Ariana DeBose nominated for the same role in Steven Spielberg’s remake. Marlee Matlin (35 years after taking Best Actress for Children of a Lesser God) got fine reviews for CODA. If the film registers with voters, she could be swept in. King Richard is anticipated to give Will Smith a solid chance at his first Oscar crowning and Aunjanue Ellis (as the mother of Venus and Serena Williams) could share in the wealth. Salma Hayek is part of the House of Gucci ensemble. She hasn’t been visible in the trailers and that gives me pause. Online chatter will be heavy for Rebecca Ferguson in Dune, though I question whether any of its cast makes its way in. Also worthy of mention: Olga Merediz (In the Heights), Gaby Hoffman (C’Mon C’Mon), Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Sally Hawkins (Spencer), and Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans). All are feasible but will need lot some critics prizes to elevate their chances.
Meryl Streep is gunning for her 22nd (!) nomination for Don’t Look Up. Playing the President of the United States in the political satire, it feels strange to leave her out of the top 5 for such a high profile role. Let’s see what the critics think before I more carefully consider her.
One performer who seems to catching on is Ruth Negga for Passing. Nominated for Actress five years back for Loving, I was basically down to a coin flip between her and Aunjanue Ellis for a current slot. I’m leaning toward Negga in what would probably be the film’s sole nod.
Bottom line: right now I have Balfe, Dunst, and Dowd as (fairly) safe bets with the other two spots up for grabs. Here’s where it shakes out as October closes:
Denis Villeneuve’s Dune hit box office expectations this past weekend and I’m more confident than ever that it makes the Best Picture ten. Belfast still maintains the #1 slot in Picture and I nearly put its maker Kenneth Branagh in the same spot in Director. Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) is hanging on by a thread as I also believe Villeneuve could be rewarded for his technical bravura behind the camera.
Per usual, I’ve made a change in the #5 rank in Actor – swapping out Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) for Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon). It was a good week for the upcoming Phoenix comedic drama as it reenters Original Screenplay over Spencer.
You can read all the latest activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mass (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Flee (PR: 14) (+1)
14. CODA (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out: Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Martha Plimpton, Mass
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 9) (E)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 2) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (+2)
5. Titane (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Attica (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ailey
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Belfast (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cruella (PR: 3) (+1)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+1)
8. King Richard (PR: 7) (-1)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (-2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cyrano (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Belfast (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Spencer (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Last Duel (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eternals (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Finch
This adds up to these pictures nabbing the following numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Nightmare Alley
5 Nominations
House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Flee, The French Dispatch, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Humans, No Time to Die, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Don’t Look Up, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Halloween weekend brings five (yes five) pictures either debuting or expanding nationally. Some of them may not treat theirselves to a top 5 finish. The contenders are Edgar Wright’s 60s set psychological horror pic Last Night in Soho, Scott Cooper’s creature feature Antlers, Wes Anderson’s latest comedy The French Dispatch, Japanese animated sequel My Heroes Academia: World Heroes’ Mission, and Amanda Seyfried in the drama A Mouthful of Air. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet at these links:
I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit. Mouthful is only opening in 800 theaters and has barely been advertised. My tiny $846,000 estimate leaves it outside of the top ten.
Of all the premieres, I suspect Academia could actually make the most and it might be the only one in the top 5. This is based on the assumption that Soho and Antlers will both struggle.
The French Dispatch is more of a question mark. It debuted in 52 venues this weekend and its $1.3 million take (good for ninth place) represents the highest per screen average in the COVID era. However, that could be misleading as it expands across the nation and non-Anderson fanatics may not turn out.
As for holdovers, Dune met expectations in its start (more on that below) and seemed to garner the audience stamp of approval with an A- Cinemascore. It should easily maintain the top spot and I’ll say a 50-55% dip is most feasible. Halloween Kills, No Time to Die, Academia, and maybe even Venom (or Soho or Antlers or Dispatch if they exceed my forecasts) could battle it out for the runner-up position.
With all the new product, my typical top 5 expands to a top 10 as we close out October. Here’s how I see it:
1. Dune
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
2. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
3. Halloween Kills
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
6. Last Night in Soho
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
7. Ron’s Gone Wrong
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
8. The French Dispatch
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
9. The Addams Family 2
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
10. Antlers
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (October 22-24)
Despite its simultaneous availability on HBO Max, Denis Villeneuve’s long awaited sci-fi epic Dune performed in the range of anticipation with $41 million, just under my $42.8 million prediction. Considering its streaming dollars, that should certainly be enough for the expected part II.
Halloween Kills was slashed steeply in weekend #2 with $14.4 million. I was a tad higher at $15.4 million. The middle pic in the trilogy is up to a solid $73 million.
No Time to Die was third with $12.2 million, right on pace with my $12.1 million take. The 25th Bond adventure sits at $120 million.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage took fourth with $9.3 million (I said $9.5 million) for $182 million overall.
Finally, the animated Ron’s Gone Wrong didn’t connect with family audiences. Despite complimentary critical reaction, it opened in the five spot with $7.3 million (not matching my $8.4 million projection).
Chloe Zhao was the big winner at the previous Academy Awards when Nomadland took Best Picture and she became the second female filmmaker to take the trophy for her direction. Her follow-up is a high profile one in Marvel’s Eternals, which opens November 5th and had its review embargo lifted today.
With an eclectic cast including Gemma Chan, Richard Madden, Kumail Nanjiani, Lia McHugh, Brian Tyree Henry, Lauren Ridloff, Barry Keoghan, Kit Harington, Salma Hayek, and Angelina Jolie, MCU entry #26 is undoubtedly one of 2021’s most anticipated blockbusters. However, critical reaction is certainly mixed. The 74% Rotten Tomatoes score is on the lower side for this series. Just this year, Black Widow stands at 79% while Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings got to 92%.
Any thought of Zhao’s having two Best Picture winners or nominees in a row (or being mentioned again in Director) has fallen by the wayside. The one race where I did feel hope for Eternals sprung was in Visual Effects. That could still happen, but I’m not near as confident. Competition will be fairly strong. Dune is easily the frontrunner and will likely win. Other notable contenders include The Matrix Resurrections, Don’t Look Up, Godzilla vs. Kong, Nightmare Alley, Jungle Cruise, Finch, and Free Guy. And then there’s the other MCU rivals like Shang-Chi and the upcoming Spider-Man: No Way Home.
There could still be room for Eternals in VE, but I’m thinking it may on the outside looking in. Even some of the reviews aren’t gushing about the visuals. Bottom line: Eternals took itself out of the running for the big races and could be iffy in the one tech competition where I thought it stood an excellent shot. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Arriving a year after its COVID delay is Denis Villeneuve’s version of the sci-fi epic Dune along with the animated Ron’s Gone Wrong. The latter will try to keep the October box office hot streak rolling along with the latter attempting to bring in family audiences. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
We have had three weekends in a row with newcomers premiering at over $50 million or darn close. Dune could fall right in that range. A potential drawback could be its simultaneous availability on HBO Max. However, I do believe enough viewers are aware that it should be seen on the biggest screen possible. I have it in the low 40s, but as Venom and Halloween Kills have shown us, the chance of over performing is certainly there for the taking.
As for Ron’s Gone Wrong, it has the disadvantage of not being based on known IP. Reviews are decent yet I have it placing fifth and under $10 million.
Halloween Kills exceeded most estimates (more on that below). Its 2018 predecessor fell 59% in its sophomore frame with a B+ Cinemascore average. The sequel has a B- and I envision it dropping in the high 60s range. No Time to Die could see around 50% decline in its third outing while Venom: Let There Be Carnage may see only a dip in the low 40s to mid 40s.
And with that, my top 5 take on the weekend ahead:
1. Dune
Predicted Gross: $42.8 million
2. Halloween Kills
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million
3. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
4. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. Ron’s Gone Wrong
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
Box Office Results (October 15-17)
Haddonfield wasn’t the only place where Michael Myers made a killing over the weekend as Halloween Kills premiered at the highest end of projections. The $49.4 million start slashed my $41.2 million prediction. Its simultaneous release on Peacock didn’t appear to make much of a difference. That’s no huge surprise considering the streamer’s membership is minuscule compared to Netflix, HBO Max, and others. While the Kills gross is far under the $76 million achieved by Halloween in 2018, this is still a big win for Universal.
No Time to Die slipped to second with $23.7 million, a bit below my $25.8 million take. The 25th Bond adventure stands at $99 million. While its overseas earnings are pleasing, Daniel Craig’s swan song isn’t quite hitting the anticipated target stateside.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage was third with $16.5 million (I said $14.1 million) and it’s up to $168 million.
The Addams Family 2 had the best hold of all in fourth with $7 million, in range with my $6.6 million projection for $42 million total.
Finally, despite mostly solid reviews, Ridley Scott’s medieval tale The Last Duel with Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Jodie Comer, and Adam Driver received little good will from moviegoers. It bombed hard with only $4.7 million in fifth. That’s a far cry from my estimate of $10.4 million. Duel is further proof that adult themed product is having a difficult time getting the intended demographic to the multiplex.
We actually had two weeks in a row of my Best Actor predictions staying the same after the five spot seemed to be constantly shifting. Not anymore as Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) makes his first appearance in the predicted hopefuls at the expense of Joaquin Phoenix in C’Mon C’Mon. That films also drops out of Original Screenplay in favor of Spencer.
The biggest change is in International Feature Film as France somewhat surprisingly picked Julia Ducournau’s Titane as their selection. That drops Happening from the race and vaults Titane to the five. I’m also putting in Drive My Car over The Hand of God.
A note – the 10 Best Picture nominees has stayed steady as of late. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that a Sundance selection from early this year (Mass, Flee, or CODA) will end up making the cut. I just can’t decide what to take out yet. We will know soon whether Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, or House of Gucci (the unscreened titles) are vulnerable.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. King Richard (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-2)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Flee (PR: 13) (-1)
15. CODA (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tender Bar
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Vivo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hand of God(PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. 7 Prisoners (PR: 8) (E)
9. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Memoria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Happening
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Attica (PR: 4) (+1)
4. President (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Velvet Underground (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ailey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Cruella (PR: 1) (-2)
4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. King Richard (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Cruella (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
West Side Story
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. King Richard (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (E)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Belfast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Time to Die (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
King Richard
Cyrano
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Eternals (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Finch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jungle Cruise
And that equates to the following number of nominations for these films:
9 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley
7 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, Spencer
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Don’t Look Up, Driver My Car, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, President, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Coming nearly a year after its anticipated arrival, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune is out in theaters and HBO Max on October 22. The sci-fi epic, with a budget of at least $165 million, comes with high hopes from Warner Bros (so much so that Part One follows its title). Based on Frank Herbert’s 1965 novel (beloved by genre fans), this is its second adaptation behind the 1984 version helmed by David Lynch. Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 maker Villeneuve employs a sprawling cast including Timothee Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Josh Brolin, Zendaya, Stellan Skarsgard, Dave Bautista, Jason Momoa, and Javier Bardem.
Critical reaction is mostly strong as it stands at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes. Dune is expected to contend for numerous Oscars including Picture and Director and multiple tech races. It could easily lead next year’s ceremony in terms of nominations. Reviews all seem to agree on one item: that it’s meant to be watched on the big screen. The studio has still stuck to its 2021 strategy of simultaneously premiering their product in multiplexes and HBO’s streaming service.
Sci-fi fans have been breathlessly awaiting Dune for years. This is nothing new to Villeneuve as the same could be said for 2017’s Blade Runner follow-up. However, it debuted to a disappointing $32.7 million and failed to reach $100 million domestically (despite similarly solid reviews).
Could the same fate await Dune? That’s definitely a possibility. Beyond its core audience (which is fairly sizable), this could struggle to find a younger crowd. We have seen this year that they are the driving force for pleasing returns in the COVID era market.
If No Time to Die could manage just $55 million and with the inevitability that some fans will opt for home viewing, I have a tough time envisioning Dune majorly surpassing expectations. That’s about $40 million and I do believe the decent buzz and event picture status should put it right in that range of mid 30s for the floor and high 40s (maybe even $50 million) for the ceiling.
It is a week of fairly minor movement in the major categories for my Oscar predictions. Even the five spot in Best Actor (which seems to change each week) remained intact.
There is a switch in Actress with Jennifer Hudson (Respect) back in over Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth).
The biggest happenings occurred in International Feature Film as nations are continuing to announce their submissions or shortlists in that race. We learned that Spain has gone with The Good Boss instead of Parallel Mothers (a surprise) and that France did not shortlist Petite Maman (which I had in the 5 slot). It’s out in favor of Happening.
You can read all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mass (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Flee (PR: 12) (-1)
14. CODA (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thoms Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smith-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Humans (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Luca (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4 (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Vivo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlotte
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Flee (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Happening (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. 7 Prisoners (PR: 10) (+2)
9. I’m Your Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Petite Maman
Parallel Mothers
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 6) (E)
7. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Julia (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The First Wave (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-2)
5. King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Belfast (PR: 9) (+2)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Luca
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Belfast (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Matrix Resurrections
Eternals
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jungle Cruise (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following breakdown in terms of nominations for the pictures:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, King Richard, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Spencer
4 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Eternals, Don’t Look Up, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Happening, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
The attendees of New York Comic Con were treated to a surprise this weekend with a screening of Ghostbusters: Afterlife. The fourth film in the franchise that famously began in 1984 serves as a direct continuation to the original and its 1989 follow-up. It’s all about family with Jason Reitman as director (his father Ivan made those first two). Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace, Logan Kim, and Paul Rudd join the bustin’ action with series stalwarts Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, Ernie Hudson, Annie Potts, and Sigourney Weaver making appearances. Afterlife is finally coming to life after numerous COVID delays with a November 19th stateside release.
Early reviews indicate a long gestating sequel has extreme reverence for its past. Some critics claim it might be a bit too nostalgic, but reaction is overwhelmingly pleasing with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 91% (based on 11 reviews).
The original classic 37 years ago managed 2 Oscar nominations. They’re what you would expect: Best Original Song for that addictive title track by Ray Parker Jr. and Visual Effects (it lost to Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom). Also as you might expect, Ghostbusters II and the ballyhooed 2016 Paul Feig reboot with Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig achieved zero awards attention. I would anticipate the same for this despite the kudos. Visual Effects is a remote possibility, but there’s a slew of contenders more likely (Dune, The Matrix Resurrections, Eternals to name just some).
My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
My weekly Oscar predictions enters the month of October with no changes in my forecasted Picture and Director nominees. However, we do have movement in the acting derbies:
The five spot in Best Actor seems to change every Sunday. This time I’m swapping out Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley) for Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) once again.
In Actress, Jennifer Hudson (Respect) falls out in favor of Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter.
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) makes my Supporting Actress five for the first time at the expense of Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans).
My #1’s in the biggest competitions stay put with Belfast (Picture), Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog (Director), Kristen Stewart in Spencer (Actress), Will Smith in King Richard (Actor), Caitriona Balfe for Belfast (Supporting Actress), and Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza (Supporting Actor).
You can peruse all the activity for all the races below as I now have Belfast and Dune tied for garnering the most nods.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 9) (+3)
7. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-2)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (E)
12. Flee (PR: 12) (E)
13. CODA (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mass (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Humans
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (E)
9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Hand of God (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Humans (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. CODA (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Passing (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Luca (PR: 2) (E)
3. Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vivo (PR: 6) (E)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Charlotte (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Hand of God (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Petite Maman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Happening (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Drive My Car (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. 7 Prisoners (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
I’m Your Man
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Attica (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The First Wave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Julia (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Sparks Brothers
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cruella (PR: 4) (+2)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. King Richard (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Spencer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Cruella (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
The French Dispatch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-3)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Luca (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belfast (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of Gucci
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (-4)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Free Guy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jungle Cruise (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these pictures gathering these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
7 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Annette, Attica, Belle, Cyrano, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Petite Maman, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
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