Having grossed nearly $150 million in Japan and other territories, animated fantasy adventure One Piece Film: Red arrives on November 4th. The 15th feature in the franchise that began in 2000, the Toei Animation title comes from director Gorõ Taniguchi.
This is the same studio that gave us Dragon Ball Super: Broly and Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero. The former made nearly $10 million in its opening frame in January 2019 while Super Hero swooped to a remarkable $21 million start in August.
One Piece is currently the highest grosser of the year in Japan. Comparisons to Dragon Ball are tricky since the predecessors in this series have not received wide North American distribution. One Piece: Stampede preceded this and made just over $1 million domestically in 2019.
A further complication is that I’ve yet to see a screen count. The aforementioned Super Hero flew to its $20M+ premiere in 3000 venues. I doubt this will reach those numbers. That said, I’ve underestimated this genre before and it seems sensible to project this could debut right above or right below $10 million.
One Piece Film: Red opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million
For my The Banshees of Ininsherin prediction, click here:
Just like last year, the Marvel Cinematic Universe may land atop the charts over Labor Day weekend. This time around, it’ll be with considerably less money… as in, less than one-tenth of what we witnessed in 2021. Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition (with 11 minutes of extra footage) is scheduled for the widest (re)release of the holiday frame.
Steven Spielberg’s OG summer blockbuster Jaws also returns to cinemas. The only true newcomer is the Regina Hall/Sterling K. Brown satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul,, which is also available on streaming via Peacock.
My detailed prediction posts on each are accessible here:
Let’s start with Jesus as I have its $2.4 million projected Friday-Monday offering potentially falling outside of the top ten. There’s a slight chance it could surprise, but I doubt it.
There’s been a narrative developing for awhile that Top Gun: Maverick could manage to return to first position in its 15th week. During Labor Day, popular holdovers do often expand their gross from the previous frame. I expect that will be the case here. However, I do believe Spidey’s 3000 screens (some IMAX) should allow it to swing back to #1 after it originally debuted last December. This should leave the runner-up spot for Maverick or Bullet Train (they should be close). That’s a far cry from this same period in 2021 when Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings decimated the all-time Labor Day record with $94 million.
Jaws is only on a fraction of the webbed superhero’s venues (about 1200) so the possibilities are limited. My estimate of $3.1 million would probably put it in seventh place.
Current champ The Invitation hardly impressed in its premiere (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade, expect it to be one of the only leftovers that does see diminished returns. It should drop to at least fourth while the five spot could be close between DC League of Super-Pets and Beast.
And with that, let’s do a top 7 outlook and keep in mind these numbers are for the four-day holiday:
1. Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition
Predicted Gross: $7 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. The Invitation
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
6. Beast
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
7. Jaws
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (August 26-28)
I’ll go the obvious route… there weren’t many RSVP’s for YA horror tale The Invitation. This is the first time in 15 months that the #1 pic didn’t manage to make over $10 million. The Invitation stumbled with $6.8 million, below my $8.1 million forecast.
Bullet Train was second with $5.6 million (on target of my $5.5 million call) with an overall take of $78 million.
Top Gun: Maverick was third with $4.7 million (I went with $5.2 million) as the juggernaut has now gathered $691 million. The biggest hit of the year is on a glide path to topple Black Panther ($700 million) next and become the fifth largest domestic earner in history.
Beast had a hefty sophomore drop of 58% for $4.8 million and fourth place. That’s under my $5.7 million prediction. The subpar two-week tally is $20 million.
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, as anticipated, plummeted in its second weekend (its genre is extremely front loaded). After a fantastic $21 million start, Hero fell 78% to fifth with $4.6 million (I was more generous at $5 million). After ten days, it’s taken in $30 million stateside.
DC League of Super-Pets was sixth with $4.1 million (I said $4.6 million) for $74 million in its 5 weeks of release.
Finally, George Miller’s Three Thousand Years of Longing was a pricey dud for MGM. The Idris Elba/Tilda Swinton Djinn fantasy, with a reported $60 million budget, opened in 7th with a mere $2.9 million. I thought it could at least manage $4 million. The studio is certainly wishing they hadn’t spent what they did after that performance.
For the first time since May of 2021, we may have a box office outing where no picture tops $10 million. We’re in a bit of a late August spiral as the YA centered vampire tale The Invitation and George Miller’s genie saga Three Thousand Years of Longing debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’m not expecting much out of either. This isn’t a time when studios typically bring out heavy hitters (though it is worth noting that Universal impressed on this same weekend last year with Candyman‘s $22 million haul). I wouldn’t anticipate the newcomers coming anywhere close to that.
My Invitation estimate would give it to #1 spot while Longing could place anywhere from 2-7. I’m thinking #7 is more probable than second as the Tilda Swinton/Idris Elba fantasy seems to be suffering from a quiet marketing campaign.
The runner-up position could be determined by the sophomore drop of current champ Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, which easily surpassed expectations (more on that below). It’s worth noting that its immediate predecessor Dragon Ball Super: Broly experienced a second frame plummet of nearly 70%. Broly actually premiered on a Wednesday before MLK weekend in 2018. In six days, it took in $22 million (similar to Hero‘s three-day mark). Broly only managed $3 million in weekend #2. I think Hero should surpass that, but don’t be surprised it drops in the low 70s.
If so, Beast could stay in second place if it only loses half its audience. While its B Cinemascore grade isn’t great, the lack of competition could mean it avoids a precipitous fall. Bullet Train, Top Gun: Maverick, and DC League of Super-Pets should all hold solidly and that could place them above Longing.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top 7 looking:
1. The Invitation
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
2. Beast
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
5. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero
Predicted Gross: $5 million
6. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
7. Three Thousand Years of Longing
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (August 20-22)
As mentioned, it was a bountiful harvest for Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero as the animated Japanese martial arts fantasy crunched an impressive $21 million. That’s well above my $13.2 million projection. These titles are extremely front loaded so expect a sharp downturn, but that’s a terrific gross and we can anticipate plenty more wide openings for these genre titles.
Idris Elba battled a Beast in the form of a lion and the picture opened in line with most estimates. At $11.5 million (I said $11.3 million), it will hope to match its $36 million budget stateside in coming weeks.
Bullet Train was third with $8 million, rising ahead of my $7 million call. The three-week total is $69 million as it hopes to reach nine figures domestically.
Top Gun: Maverick soared to new heights with $5.9 million, a little under my $6.7 million prediction. In its 13th (!) weekend, Maverick surpassed Avengers: Infinity War to become the 6th largest domestic earner of all time. The tally is $683 million as it looks to top Black Panther‘s $700 million next.
Finally, DC League of Super-Pets rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I went with $5 million). The overall gross after 4 weeks is $67 million.
Blogger’s Update (08/17): Two days before its premiere, I’m revising Beast down from $14.3M to $11.3M. That puts it in second place instead of first with Dragon Ball rising to first.
Survival thriller Beast with Idris Elba and the animated Japanese fantasy sequel Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero will compete for the #1 spot this weekend. It could be a close competition and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I’m projecting that both will manage a low teens opening and I’m giving Beast an ever so slight edge. Either could over perform, but both could also top out in low double digits. As long as neither falls significantly short of expectations, they should place 1-2.
Bullet Train, after two weeks in first, should fall to 3rd or 4th depending on how well Top Gun: Maverick holds. It’s a safe bet that the latter will hold quite solidly so it could be a stiff competition for third with DC League of Super-Pets rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
2. Beast
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $7 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (August 12-14)
Brad Pitt and the Bullet Train was #1 again with $13.4 million, just shy of my $14.1 million take. The two-week total is $55 million as it is tracking to come in under $100 million domestically when all is said and done.
In a photo finish for second, Top Gun: Maverick achieved another remarkable feat. Rising from sixth to the runner-up position, Tom Cruise’s biggest hit ever (and then some) earned $7 million in its 12th outing. I projected a tad lower at $6.2 million. Sitting at $673 million and #7 all-time stateside, it will eventually get to the #5 slot and overtake Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War in the coming days.
DC League of Super-Pets was third and it also made $7 million, in line with my $7.2 million prediction. The animated tale has made $58 million in its three weeks of release.
It was a razor thin margin for 4th and 5th with Thor: Love and Thunder barely surpassing Nope. The former made $5.3 million (I was right there at $5.4 million) as the MCU sequel has rung up $325 million.
Nope was fifth and also did $5.3 million, outpacing my $4.2 million guesstimate. Jordan Peele’s effort has made $107 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was sixth with $5 million. I went with $5.2 million and it’s amassed $343 million.
#7 was Where the Crawdads Sing with $4 million (I said $4.1 million) with a $72 million overall haul.
Bodies Bodies Bodies couldn’t really capitalize on its impressive NY/LA limited rollout last weekend. Expanding wide, it took in $3.2 million for eighth place. I was a bit more optimistic at $4.4 million. While its per screen average was 2nd in the top 10 behind only Train, look for it to fade quickly.
Elvis was ninth with $2.5 million (I said $2.6 million) as the biopic has shook up $141 million.
The climbing thriller Fall debuted in 10th with $2.5 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did come in with better earnings than most prognoses. This includes my own at $1.2 million.
Easter Sunday fell outside of the top ten in 11th with $2.4 million in its sophomore frame (I was on target at $2.5 million). The meager total is $9 million.
Last and least, Diane Keaton’s comedy Mack & Rita was a massive flop in 13th position with $1 million. I gave it too much leeway at $2.3 million. As if that start wasn’t bad enough, it earned a dreadful D+ Cinemascore grade.
Over three and a half years ago, Dragon Ball Super: Broly significantly exceeded expectations stateside. As summer closes out, the follow-up Super Hero hopes to do the same. The martial arts fantasy from Toei Animation is actually the 21st feature in the long running Japanese franchise. Tetsuro Kodama directs.
The pic already did brisk business in its native country when it opened in June. Over the long MLK frame in 2019, Broly got a kickstart to the weekend with a Wednesday bow. In its first two days of release, it captured $10.4 million with a six-day overall haul of over $22 million.
Hero is not slated for a hump day start nor is it premiering over a holiday. That makes comparisons to Broly a little tricky. There’s no doubt that this genre is extremely front loaded and I certainly see it hitting double digits. It could find itself in a battle for #1 with the Idris Elba headlined survival thriller Beast. Both could be competing for some of the same eyeballs. I’ll project $12-14 million is where this lands and that puts it barely behind where I have Beast at.
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
Blogger’s Update (08/17): Two days before its premiere, I’m revising Beast down from $14.3M to $11.3M
Idris Elba faces single fatherhood and a murderous lion in the survival thriller Beast when it opens August 19th. It comes from Balthasar Kormakur, who recently directed nature related efforts Everest and Adrift. Costars include Sharlto Copley, Iyana Halley, and Leah Sava Jeffries. The selling point for the Universal Pictures pic is, of course, the big cat hunting Elba and family in the South African setting.
Beast should find itself in position for a #1 opening with Bullet Train in its third weekend. That said, the Japanese animated adventure Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero could certainly give it a run for its money.
Estimates have this as low as $10 million or in the $15 million range. Approaching or slightly exceeding the latter seems more likely as long as buzz is decent (early word-of-mouth is encouraging). Higher teens even seems doable, but I’m not ready to go into that mode as of yet.
Beast opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million
For my Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero prediction, click here:
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