A Minecraft Movie Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)

Based on the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie hopes to build upon its popular IP and expand it to multiplexes. Jared Hess, maker of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, directs Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers, Sebastian Hansen, and Jennifer Coolidge.

The fantastical adventure comes armed with a reported $150 million price tag and an initial trailer that left some fans cold. Once considered a cinematic graveyard at the box office thanks to 90s duds such as Super Mario Bros. and Double Dragon, fortunes for gaming adaptations have turned around in the past few years. Sonic the Hedgehog and sequels, Pokémon Detective Pikachu, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s are recent examples.

Minecraft isn’t expected to approach the $146 million that Mario opened with in 2023. A more realistic goal is the $60 million that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 premiered with last year. I’ll give it a little under that.

A Minecraft Movie opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million

For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 prediction, click here:

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

Borderlands Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, I’m downsizing my estimate from $11.3 million to $8.1 million

For quite some, “based on a video game” was a kiss of death for cinematic adaptations. Some of the massive failures include 1993’s live-action Super Mario Bros., Double Dragon, Wing Commander, and Max Payne. That trend has reversed in recent years with hits like Uncharted, last year’s animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. So where Eli Roth’s Borderlands land? I suspect it might fail to break out.

The sci-fi action comedy is spawned from one of the most successful game franchises that began 15 years ago. An impressive cast includes Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black (doing voiceover work), Edgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, Gina Gershon, Haley Bennett, Bobby Lee, and Jamie Lee Curtis.

Some die-hard aficionados of the role-playing first-person shooter series will obviously turn up. Crossover appeal, despite the recognizable cast, could be a tall order. A debut of over $20 million should be considered a win, but I think it might stall out in the low double digits.

Borderlands opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million

For my It Ends with Us prediction, click here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction

2023: The Year of the Video Game Movie

The trash heap of movie history is littered with a significant share of video game adaptations. It’s a genre devoid of well-regarded titles as evidenced by Double Dragon, Street Fighter, Wing Commander, Doom, and Max Payne, to name a few. That list also includes 1993’s Super Mario Bros., which tanked at the box office and drew the ire of critics.

30 years later, the tide seems to have shifted and that’s why the Video Game Movie is my second entry for trends and performers that popped in 2023. If you missed my first post on the phenomenon that was Barbenheimer, you can find it here:

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer

Mario and Luigi returned to multiplexes this year. This time around, it was in the form of Illumination animating the Nintendo legends. The results? The second biggest worldwide hit of the year behind Barbie ($1.3 billion across the globe and $574 million stateside). That easily makes it the largest grossing video game adaptation of all time and opens the door for projects to follow. You can count on sequels and spin-offs to this and The Legend of Zelda is already in development.

The successes didn’t stop with the heroic plumbers. Five Nights at Freddy’s, based on the game series with demonic bears in a Chuck E. Cheese type setting, wasn’t a hit with reviewers. It did bring out its fan base and then some to the tune of $137 million domestically with another $156 million elsewhere. Like Mario, a follow-up is in the pipeline.

HBO’s The Last of Us was one of TV’s significant successes of ’23 and the post-apocalyptic PlayStation adaptation has the Globe and Emmy nods (and a greenlit second season) to show for it.

Not every version of a cartridge title was a smash. Gran Turismo only managed to rev up $44 million in North America. However, Mario, Freddy’s, and The Last of Us made 2023 the most notable frame for VG product yet in the box office game. My Year Of posts will continue…

Sonic the Hedgehog Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (02/12): My estimate has gone up significantly from $38.7 million to $51.8 million

Based on the Sega video game franchise that dates back nearly three decades, Sonic the Hedgehog premieres over the four-day Presidents Day frame next weekend. From first time director Jeff Fowler, the reported $95 million adventure comedy stars James Marsden, Jim Carrey, Tika Sumpter, and Ben Schwartz doing the motion capture work as the title character.

Movies based on video games have had a checkered box office history. This is a genre littered with disappointments from Super Mario Bros. to Double Dragon to Street Fighter to Assassin’s Creed. On the other hand, last summer’s Pokemon entry Detective Pikachu set a best ever opening for such pics with $54 million.

Sonic is certainly a known entity and family audiences could gravitate towards it now that Jumanji: The Next Level and (to a lesser extent) Dolittle are winding down. This is not expected to reach Pikachu levels, but a Friday to Monday haul in the high 30s to low 40s range is anticipated and likely.

Sonic the Hedgehog opening weekend prediction: $51.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)