And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:
We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.
He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.
We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.
John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.
For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?
The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Not many eyeballs have been trained on Lionsgate releases over the last couple of years and the studio hopes that changes with Now You See Me: Now You Don’t. The third feature in the magic infused heist franchise arrives nearly a decade after the second installment. Ruben Fleischer takes over the directorial reins from Louis Leterrier (the 2013 original) and Jon M. Chu (the 2016 sequel). Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Isla Fischer, and Morgan Freeman reprise their roles and newcomers include Justice Smith, Dominic Sessa, Ariana Greenblatt, and Rosamund Pike as the main villain.
In the summer of 2013, part 1 was an unexpected hit with a $29 million debut and $117 million domestic haul. Three years later, the follow-up experienced diminishing returns with a $22 million start and $65 million overall gross. Unless there’s a nostalgia factor the series that I’m simply not seeing, this should experience the worst opening of the trio and that long layover doesn’t help. I’m thinking mid to high teens.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).
For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!
Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives
Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Documentary
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!
Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Casting
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Cinematography
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Make-Up & Hair
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Original Score
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
Sound
Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things
Predicted Winner: Napoleon
Runner-Up: The Creator
Outstanding British Film
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
Predicted Winner: Poor Things
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?
Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex
Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President
Rising Star
Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde
Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi
Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce
That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
5 Wins
Poor Things
2 Wins
Anatomy of a Fall
1 Win
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.
And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.
The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: The Color Purple
2nd Alternate: Saltburn
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives
2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Best Cinematography
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Barbie
2nd Alternate: El Conde
Best Costume Design
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Napoleon
2nd Alternate: Maestro
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Barbie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Society of the Snow
2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Best Original Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best Original Song
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest
2nd Alternate: Asteroid City
Best Sound
Ferrari
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem
The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.
Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.
Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
How I Did: 4/6
Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.
Actress
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 3/6
More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
How I Did: 4/6
Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 5/6
Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 4/6
Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives
How I Did: 4/5
Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.
Casting
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon
How I Did: 2/5
Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 3/4
As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.
British Film
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 9/10
My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.
Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?
How I Did: 1/5
Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.
Documentary
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.
Cinematography
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did 4/5
Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.
Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This is Oppenheimer.
Makeup and Hair
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 3/5
Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.
Original Score
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.
Sound
Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.
That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:
13 Noininations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
9 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro
6 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall
5 Nominations
Barbie, Saltburn
4 Nominations
Napoleon
3 Nominations
How to Have Sex, Past Lives
2 Nominations
20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka
I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.
Last Sunday, the Golden Globes were more the Oppenheimer show than a Barbenheimer love fest. One week later, the 29th Critics Choice Awards was more of a celebration for 2023’s acclaimed blockbusters that will forever be linked. Both managed to win in races I didn’t pick them in. Yet they arguably came up short in competitions where they were anticipated to emerge victorious. In addition to the impressive hardware picked up by the aforementioned pics, it was a pleasing night for The Holdovers. As for Killers of the Flower Moon or Maestro… not so much.
Barbenheimer accounted for 14 of the 21 wins this evening. That would be Oppenheimer with 8 and Barbie with 6. As for this blogger, I went 15 for 21 in my selections.
As anticipated, Oppenheimer is your Best Picture with Christopher Nolan as Best Director (just like the Globes). Same goes for Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor as he’s established himself as the favorite for Oscar. It also won Acting Ensemble and I had Barbie taking that instead. The other four trophies: Cinematography, Editing, Score, and Visual Effects. For VE, Oppenheimer shockingly missed the shortlist for the Oscars. I picked Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse for Critics Choice (it did win Animated Feature as projected). Simply put, Oppenheimer is very well positioned for Oscar’s big prize.
Moving onto Barbie, it took home Original Screenplay. As you may be aware, it is slotted in Adapted Screenplay at the Academy Awards. Greta Gerwig’s phenomenon also won Comedy, Costume Design, Hair and Makeup (in a surprise win over the favored Maestro), Production Design, and Song. In another slight shock, “I’m Just Ken” was the honored tune over “What Was Made I For?”.
As for The Holdovers, all three prominent performers in the cast went home with an engraved reminder of their attendance. Paul Giamatti is Best Actor and I picked him in a coin flip over Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer). It sets up a real race for that leading derby. Da’Vine Joy Randolph continued to solidify her dominance in Supporting Actress while Dominic Sessa is your Young Actor/Actress recipient.
We also have some drama in Best Actress. Emma Stone’s work in Poor Things won out over Globe victor Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I got that wrong and it contributed to a night where Killers came up 0 for 12.
In other races: Adapted Screenplay went to American Fiction. I thought it would be Killers and this competition at the Oscars (where Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things should also be in the mix) is unpredictable.
Anatomy of a Fall, while not in contention for International Feature Film at the Oscars, is the Foreign Language Film selection (Globes went with it too). That’s one more award to help its chance of making the ten BP nominees.
My main takeaway: Oppenheimer, Nolan, Downey Jr., and Randolph might be sweeping. Best Actor and Actress look more competitive. For the former, it’s Giamatti vs. Murphy (with Bradley Cooper in Maestro still a potential spoiler). In Actress, it’s Gladstone vs. Stone.
Keep an eye on the blog for my final Oscar predictions later this week!
Since my last predictions on January 6th, we’ve had a whole lotta activity with Oscar precursors. The Golden Globes aired and bestowed their Best Drama to Oppenheimer and Musical/Comedy to Poor Things (over Barbie). SAG released their nominees with some surprising omissions including Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), and Charles Melton (May December).
And in perhaps the most unexpected development of all, the PGA Picture nominees included two international features with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. PGA typically doesn’t honor foreign pics. The 10 movies they ended up nominating have been my Oscar BP ten for weeks. It’s a little scary to predict that the Academy and PGA will match 10/10… but here we are for now.
In Best Actor, Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) each rise a spot to 1-2 with Bradley Cooper (Maestro) sliding from first to third. In Supporting Actor, Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) enters the predicted quintet with Charles Melton (May December) on the outs.
An important note: this is my penultimate forecast for the 96th Academy Awards. My plan is to have final predictions up on Friday or Saturday next week before nomination morning on January 23rd.
Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saltburn (PR: 13) (-2)
Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)
Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Four Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-2)
Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (-2)
Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR:3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Chevalier (PR: 10) (E)
Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-3)
Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m forecasting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers,Maestro
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, May December, Napoleon, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
On Sunday evening, the 29th Critics Choice Awards air on the CW with Chelsea Handler handling hosting duties. In the busiest Oscar precursor week of the year, it’ll cap off with this ceremony. Critics Choice has a mixed history matching with the Academy. Five of the last ten CC Picture victors won BP at the Oscars. For Actress – it’s 6 out of 10. Actor is 7 out of 10. Supporting Actress is 8 out of 10 and Supporting Actor is the most at 9 for 10.
Let’s go through each competition and I’ll give a winner and runner-up prediction. You can expect a recap of the show Sunday evening!
Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Actress
Nominees: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Holdovers), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Acting Ensemble
Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Ariana Greenblatt (Barbie), Calah Lane (Wonka), Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Madeleine Yuna Voyles (The Creator)
PREDICTED WINNER: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Godzilla Minus One, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, The Zone of Interest
PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest
Comedy
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Bottoms, The Holdovers, No Hard Feelings, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: American Fiction
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
Cinematography
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Poor Things, Wonka
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Editing
Nominees: Air, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Hair and Makeup
Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Priscilla
PREDICTED WINNER: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Production Design
Nominees: Asteroid City, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn
PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
Score
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
Song
Nominees: “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “This Wish” from Wish, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
That works out to the following wins for these movies:
6 Wins
Barbie, Oppenheimer
3 Wins
The Holdovers
2 Wins
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Win
Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things
We are 17 days out from Oscar nominations being revealed and a flurry of activity is ahead of us. The Golden Globes air Sunday evening and SAG nods come out on Wednesday. The BAFTA long lists were unveiled yesterday and critics groups continue to bestow their honors. Those events (specifically the Globes and SAG) could alter my thinking in the very near future.
As for these first forecasts of the fresh new year, the big news of the past few days was the announcement that Barbie will contend in Adapted Screenplay and not Original. That means I’ve shifted Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster from #1 in its former race to the top spot in its new one. That drops All of Us Strangers from the adapted field and allows Air to enter the high five for original.
You won’t find a whole lot of changes in the main categories. I will note that Barbie is now sitting in the #2 slot in BP with Killers of the Flower Moon sliding to third. In Supporting Actress, the fifth position (which seems wide open) goes to Sandra Hüller in The Zone of Interest. That makes her a double nominee and puts my former pick of Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) on the outside looking in.
You can peruse all the movement below! Keep an eye on the blog this week for reaction to the Globes, SAG nods, and any other noteworthy activity.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: Even)
2. Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. American Fiction (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Air (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Society of the Snow
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (-4)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. May December (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-2)
5. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Society of the Snow (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Four Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Godland
The Monk and the Gun
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Robot Dreams
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)
2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)
3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Symphony (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (E)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saltburn (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barbie (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wonka (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Chevalier (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (E)
8. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
American Fiction
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: A Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-4)
9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Barbie (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Creator (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m currently projecting these movies generate these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer, Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, May December, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
American Symphony, The Color Purple, Napoleon, Society of the Snow
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Suzume, The Taste of Things
My final Oscar predictions for calendar year 2023 sees changes in Picture, Actress, and Actor. Anatomy of a Fall is back in the BP ten with The Color Purple falling out (despite its impressive box office bow on Christmas Day). That said – it’s a coin flip.
In Actress, I’ve elevated Greta Lee (Past Lives) once again at the expense of Margot Robbie’s Barbie. Same goes for Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in Actor with Colman Domingo’s Rustin out of the projected contending quintet.
I’ll also note that 20 Days in Mariupol is now first in Documentary Feature over longtime first place forecasted Beyond Utopia.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. American Fiction (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-1)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Air (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (-3)
10. J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. Godland (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. El Conde (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonka (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Priscilla
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Past Lives (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Golda (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wonka (PR: 10) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Killer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)
10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
The Color Purple, The Holdovers
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, May December, Past Lives, Society of the Snow
2 Nominations
The Boy and the Heron
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
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