Sony Pictures is hoping ADog’sWayHome will be a good boy next weekend when it hits theaters. The film tracks a pup trying to get back to his owner with a cast including Ashley Judd, Edward James Olmos, Alexandra Shipp, Wes Studi, and Bryce Dallas Howard voicing the adorable title character. Charles Martin Smith, who is no stranger to animal tales having made DolphinTale and its sequel, directs.
When looking at recent Hollywood canine creations, there’s a wide range of possibilities in comparisons. Two years ago, ADog’sPurpose took in just over $18 million out of the gate. In the summer of 2017, MeganLeavey disappointed with just under $4 million. This past summer, DogDays managed just $2.5 million.
My feeling is that this will perform closer to Purpose and not the other features mentioned. However, I’ll say a double digits to low teens range is as far as the opening leash goes.
ADog’sWayHome opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
The first box office weekend of October is bound to be a highly unpredictable one as three new pics enter the marketplace: David Fincher’s Gone Girl, the horror prequel Annabelle, and faith-based Nicolas Cage thriller Left Behind. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
Here’s where the unpredictability comes in and it applies to all three new films…
Gone Girl is riding a wave of favorable reviews and it’s based on a very well-known 2012 Gillian Flynn novel. Yet movies like this can sometimes open decently and develop sturdy legs in subsequent weekends. My prediction for Gone Girl is definitely on the high end of expectations.
Annabelle, the prequel/spinoff of last summer’s hit The Conjuring, could easily surpass my prediction, which is definitely on the low end of expectations. It’s conceivable that these two newcomers could fight it out for #1, though my estimates do not reflect that.
Left Behind is another wild card. It is based on a series of well-known novels and its Christian themes could certainly give it a better opening than I’m predicting.
Add all that up and it equals a weekend where surprises would not be surprising. As for holdovers, I anticipate current #1 The Equalizer should lose about half its audience, with smaller declines for the animated The Boxtrolls and YA flick The Maze Runner.
And with that – we’ll do a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
1. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $39.6 million
2. Annabelle
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. The Equalizer
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)
4. The Boxtrolls
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 44%)
6. Left Behind
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (September 26-28)
It was a terrific weekend for yours truly with newcomers, while I didn’t give a couple of holdovers enough credit and gave another a bit too much.
As expected, Denzel Washington’s The Equalizer easily topped the charts with a rock solid $34.1 million, right in line with my $34.8M projection. The action thriller managed the fourth best September debut ever and the third best for star Washington.
YA hit The Maze Runner slipped to second with $17.4 million, holding up quite better than my $14.6M estimate. The budding new franchise has earned $57 million in ten days and is definitely a treat to pass $100M when all is said and done.
The animated feature The Boxtrolls took third with $17.2 million. My prediction… $17.2M! I’ll give myself a pat on the back for that one and this represents a decent opening for the pic.
In fourth, ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You made $6.8 million in week two, outpacing my $5.8M projection. It’s made an OK $22 million in ten days.
Fifth place belonged to Dolphin Tale 2 in its third frame with $4.7 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because I had the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones earning $6.1 million in weekend #2, yet it only managed $4.1M. This major disappointment has grossed only $20 million so far and should top out with only about $30M.
Two new releases should top the box office this weekend as the Denzel Washington action pic The Equalizer and animated flick The Boxtrolls make their debuts on Friday. For my individual prediction posts on each, click here:
I fully expect Denzel to easily rule the weekend with a just OK opening for Boxtrolls. If that animated title fails to meet its somewhat meager expectations, this week’s champ The Maze Runner has a shot at staying #2. I expect holdovers A Walk Among the Tombstones and This Is Where I Leave You to both lose about half their audience in weekend two.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Equalizer
Predicted Gross: $34.8 million
2. The Boxtrolls
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
3. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
4. A Walk Among the Tombstones
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)
5. This Is Where I Leave You
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (September 19-21)
The YA adaptation The Maze Runner opened #1 as expected with a stealthy $32.5 million, ahead of my $26.1M estimate. As predicted above, it should suffer a fairly significant drop in its second weekend but with a reported $30M budget, it’s off to a great start and a sequel is already scheduled for 2015.
Not a good weekend for Liam Neeson as his A Walk Among the Tombstones suffered a disappointing debut with only $12.7 million, well below my $21.4M projection. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, audiences clearly weren’t “taken” with it, so to speak.
The ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You had a middling opening with $11.5 million, just below my $12.3M prediction. The trailers and TV spots just weren’t successful in making it look like a must-see, despite the star power of Jason Bateman and Tina Fey.
Last weekend’s #1 No Good Deed, as expected, suffered a precipitous drop grossing $9.7 million – just below my $10.7M projection. Still, it’s earned a solid $39 million in ten days. In its sophomore frame, Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out the top five with $8.8 million – under my $10.8M estimate. The sequel, which isn’t matching its predecessor, has made $26 million so far.
Finally, I predicted the Kevin Smith directed horror pic Tusk would make $2.3 million on its limited number of screens, but it didn’t come close. It earned a paltry $886,000 playing in 602 venues.
Four new titles enter the marketplace this weekend to compete with the current #1 and #2 – No Good Deed and Dolphin Tale 2. They are the YA adaptation The Maze Runner, the Liam Neeson actioner A Walk Among the Tombstones, star-studded comedy This Is Where I Leave You, and Kevin Smith horror flick Tusk.
**In a change from normal practice, let’s get Tusk out of the way first. Kevin Smith, known most from Clerks fame, has directed this low-budget horror pic. It’s unknown at press time how many screens it will open on, though it’s expected to be relatively low compared to the three other new releases. Without knowing a screen count, it’s difficult to post a detailed prediction post on it, so I didn’t. I will say it opens with $2.3 million, well below having the possibility of being in the top five.
As for the other newbies, you can find my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I expect the three newcomers to populate the top three positions this weekend and the possibility exists of a battle between Maze Runner and Tombstones. Current #1 No Good Deed should suffer a far bigger decline than Dolphin Tale 2 and the two could duke it out for the four spot.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Maze Runner
Predicted Gross: $26.1 million
2. A Walk Among the Tombstones
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
3. This Is Where I Leave You
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million
4. Dolphin Tale 2
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)
5. No Good Deed
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)
Box Office Results (September 12-14)
In a bit of a surprise, the Idris Elba/Taraji P. Henson thriller No Good Deed debuted at #1 with a robust $24.2 million, well beyond my meager $13.8M projection. Clearly the marketing campaign worked with 60% of its audience being female. As predicted above, it should drop precipitously in its sophomore frame, but with a low budget, it’s an unqualified hit.
Dolphin Tale 2 had to settle for the #2 spot with $15.8 million, in line with my $16.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $19.1 million opening gross of its predecessor, though it shouldn’t fall too far in weekend #2.
The rest of the top five was made up of summer holdovers that all didn’t drop quite as far as I expected. Guardians of the Galaxy was third with $8.1 million (my prediction: $6.8M), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles fourth with $4.8 million ($3.9M was my estimate), and Let’s Be Cops fifth with $4.3 million (my prediction: $3.4M).
One interesting box office story was the sixth place debut of The Drop, a crime thriller starring Tom Hardy and the late James Gandolfini. It managed an impressive $4.1 million on only 809 screens, giving it the second highest per screen average of the weekend after Deed. This was certainly above the estimates of most and I didn’t even make a prediction on it.
The month long reign of the Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ruling the top two spots at the box office should come to an end this weekend with two new releases: family sequel Dolphin Tale 2 and thriller No Good Deed. You can review my detailed posts on each of them here:
I’ll give Dolphin Tale 2 the edge to top the charts, but only because it’s scheduled to open on approximately 1500 more screens than Deed, which still has an outside shot at #1. Holdovers Guardians, Turtles, and Let’s Be Cops should round out the top five in a rather lackluster weekend before heavy hitters such as A Walk Among the Tombstones, The Equalizer, and Gone Girl arrive soon.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Dolphin Tale 2
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
2. No Good Deed
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Let’s Be Cops
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (September 5-7)
In what was the weakest box office frame in 13 years, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy was #1 with $10.3 million, right in line with my $10.9M projection. The superhero megahit has amassed $294 million and should blast past $300M this week.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was second with $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.6M estimate. It’s earned an impressive $174M so far and should top out around $190M.
Sleeper comedy hit Let’s Be Cops was third with my $5.5 million, above my $4.5M projection. Its total stands at $66M.
YA romance If I Stay was fourth as it also made $5.5 million, right in line with my $5.3M prediction and its haul is at an OK $39M.
Pierce Brosnan’s dud The November Man rounded out the top five with $4.3 million in weekend two, once again on pace with my $4.1M estimate. Its two week total is a weak $17M and it might reach $30M total domestically.
Finally, the faith based musical drama The Identical (the weekend’s only newbie) tanked with only $1.5 million for a pathetic 12th place debut, under my generous $3.9M projection.
Three years after its predecessor was a sleeper hit, Dolphin Tale 2 swims into theaters this Friday and will attempt a #1 opening. It’s got a very good shot. Actor turned director Charles Martin Smith is behind the camera once again and stars of Dolphin Tale Harry Connick Jr., Ashley Judd, Kris Kristofferson, and Morgan Freeman all return.
In September of 2011, the original debuted to $19.1 million on its way to a $72 million domestic gross. Those earnings were enough for Warner Bros. to green light a sequel. The big question is whether or not Dolphin Tale 2 grosses more than its predecessor and on that one, I’m skeptical. I simply don’t believe the first is beloved enough for audiences to flock to it. That being said, Dolphin Tale 2 should earn enough to get it to the #1 spot in a currently weak marketplace.
Dolphin Tale 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.4 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 