Tag: Disney

April 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)

A Minecraft Movie starring Jason Momoa and Jack Black looks to dominate the charts while The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 hopes to capture a hefty portion of the audience that witnessed Part 1 this past weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Minecraft Movie Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

Minecraft, based on the best selling video game of all time, should outgross the rest of the top five combined. However, that’s with a caveat. My mid to high 50s estimate isn’t exactly a robust number for this IP and would be considered a slight disappointment.

The rest of the top 5 is a little tricky. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 encompasses episodes 3-5 of the popular faith-based TV show. Part 1 easily outpaced expectations (more on that below). The follow-up shows should see diminishing returns, but it could still be good enough for second or third place. According to the info I’ve seen, Part 1 should still be in multiplexes and it might remain in the top five.

As for holdovers, Jason Statham’s A Working Man clocked a surprising #1 start and it may lose around half its audience while Disney’s dud Snow White may lose slightly more.

Here’s how I have the chart playing out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $92.5 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 28-30)

In an upset, A Working Man capitalized on the ho-hum Snow White reception and was first with $15.5 million. The action thriller rose above my $13.9 million prediction and is another decent hit for Mr. Statham.

Disney’s Snow White live-action retelling tumbled 66% to $14.3 million, below my $16.4 million projection. The ten-day take is $66 million as it tries to reach $100 million domestically.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, as mentioned, easily rose above forecasts in third with $11.7 million. That soars past my $6.4 million call and is quite a heavenly result for the Fathom Events distributed property.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler debuted in fourth with $9.3 million, surpassing my $6.7 million estimate. With a C- Cinemascore, the sophomore drop should be substantial. Lucky for it, the budget is reportedly a meager $12 million.

The biggest disappointment of the week besides Snow‘s fall was Death of a Unicorn. In fifth place, the horror comedy with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega took in just $5.7 million compared to my $8.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 28-30 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction
Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction
The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.

That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

3. Death of a Unicorn

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. The Woman in the Yard

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (March 21-23)

Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…

They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.

As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.

Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.

Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.

Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.

Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood hopes that Disney’s live-action remake of Snow White can wake up a sleepy box office this weekend while The Alto Knights with a double dose of Robert De Niro also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Snow White Box Office Prediction
The Alto Knights Box Office Prediction

With Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen, there’s no doubt Snow White will dwarf all competitors. The question is by how much. A best case scenario might be around $60 million though it could bottom out in the mid to high 30s. I’m giving it high 40s. While that’s nothing to sneeze at, it’s not that happy a result for the Mouse House considering most of their other live-action retellings far outpaced that figure.

Mr. De Niro portrays two real-life gangsters in the period piece Knights. Warner Bros hasn’t given it much of a marketing push. My lower to mid single digits forecast could put it anywhere from second to sixth.

Holdovers Novocaine (the current champ), Black Bag, Captain America: Brave New World, and Mickey 17 should all generate similar earnings. In fact, I have #2 and #6 separated by only half a million bucks. That’s with Novocaine dwindling just over 50% and Black Bag falling in the high 40s in its sophomore frame. Captain America is likely to experience the smallest decline.

Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. Novocaine

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

3. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

4. Black Bag

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. The Alto Knights

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

6. Mickey 17

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (March 14-16)

It was a painful weekend in multiplexes as no feature topped $10 million. Novocaine with Jack Quaid had muted bragging rights in 1st with $8.8 million. Failing to match my $9.8 million prediction, look for this to fade quickly with a meh B Cinemascore.

Also sporting a B Cinemascore was Steven Soderbergh’s Black Bag with Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender. The spy thriller was second with $7.6 million, just over my $7.3 million projection.

Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 suffered a considerable 61% drop and was third with $7.4 million. I was a tad more generous to the Robert Pattinson sci-fi satire at $8.1 million. The two-week tally is an unimpressive $33 million.

Captain America: Brave New World was fourth at $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a five-week total of $185 million and $200 million domestic looking achievable.

The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie rounded out the top five with a mere $3.1 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for the animated offering.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Snow White Box Office Prediction

Disney looks to Snow White to earn a lot of green when it premieres March 21st. A live-action adaptation of the nearly 90-year-old first animated feature from the studio, Marc Webb directs with Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. The supporting cast includes Andrew Burnap, Ansu Kabia, Hadley Fraser, and Lorena Andrea.

The Mouse House has pumping out these remakes with regularity in the past decade. Some have gotten off to sizzling starts including The Jungle Book ($103 million), Beauty and the Beast ($174 million), Aladdin ($91 million), The Lion King ($191 million), and The Little Mermaid ($95 million). Cinderella from 2015 premiered to $67 million.

Snow White would be fortunate to hit any of those numbers and it could approach Cinderella territory. The slipper half empty narrative is something closer to Dumbo‘s sleepier opening from 2019 at $46 million. I’ll say it gets beyond that, but not by much.

Snow White opening weekend prediction: $49.6 million

For my The Alto Knights prediction, click here:

The Alto Knights Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Captain America: Brave New World

Of the three previous Marvel Cinematic Universe monikered Captain America pics, there is just one Oscar nomination among them. That would be middle feature The Winter Soldier from 2014 which was up in Visual Effects and lost to Interstellar.

This Friday marks the 4th feature in the sub-franchise and 35th overall MCU title with Captain America: Brave New World. Anthony Mackie takes on the title role for the first time in the Julius Onah directed adventure. Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Carl Lumbly, Xosha Roquemore, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, Giancarlo Esposito, Tim Blake Nelson, and Harrison Ford costar.

Not all reviews are subpar but a lot of them are breaking bad. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 51% with Metacritic at 43. That’s certainly on the lower rung of the record setting franchise’s numbers and by far the worst of the America quartet (which is said to be more of a sequel to 2008’s The Incredible Hulk).

Most MCU fare is only Academy competitive in Visual Effects. Beginning with 2008’s Iron Man, they’re 0 for 14 in that race. Some critics are complaining that World has the looks of a direct to Disney+ effort. I wouldn’t expect this to be the 15th hopeful for the visuals. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

February 14-17 Box Office Predictions

For this upcoming Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend, Captain America: Brave New World hopes for the love from MCU fans while Paddington in Peru looks for a commanding runner-up start. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction
Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

Obviously America, with Anthony Mackie donning the shield in place of Chris Evans, will easily reach first. I don’t expect it to reach anywhere near the heights of other MCU predecessors including 2016’s Captain America: Civil War. A four-day gross around $90 million seems feasible.

Paddington in Peru has already done impressive business overseas. My Friday to Monday estimate puts it in the high teens. That’s in range with the 2015 original and stronger than the 2018 sequel.

It is common for holdovers to experience small declines during this February four-day frame. Sometimes there’s even increases. I anticipate current champ Dog Man to post similar grosses to its sophomore outing (more on that below) while Mufasa may also have a minor bump. Heart Eyes could see its second weekend fortunes fall in the 25% range.

And with that, here’s my outlook on the weekend ahead and keep in mind that my figures for returning titles are for Friday-Monday:

1. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Paddington in Peru

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

3. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

4. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (February 7-9)

Multiplexes got defeated about as bad as the Kansas City Chiefs with the Super Bowl and a lack of enticing newcomers causing moviegoers to stay home. Dog Man from DreamWorks Animation remained in 1st with $13.8 million, but the 62% plummet was far more than I figured. I called it at $19.4 million and it’s made $54 million thus far.

Horror rom com Heart Eyes didn’t impress in 2nd with $8.3 million, below my $10.8 million take. Despite solid reviews, audiences didn’t bite.

Same goes for critically reviled action comedy Love Hurts with Ke Huy Quan. It stalled with $5.8 million compared to my $7.1 million forecast.

Mufasa: The Lion King was fourth with $4 million (I said $4.6 million) for an eight-week haul of $235 million.

Companion, another scary pic with impressive critical reaction, nevertheless nosedived 68% in its sophomore weekend for fifth. The $3 million gross was well under my $4.9 million prediction as its ten-day take is $15 million.

Finally, buddy comedy One of Them Days was sixth at $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.4 million and the four-week total is $39 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction

Disney hopes that audiences will love Captain America: Brave New World enough to give it a commanding start during the long weekend beginning with Valentine’s Day and concluding on Presidents’ Day. The 35th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe has Anthony Mackie, once the Falcon, donning the shield as the title character and replacing Chris Evans. Julius Onah directs with a supporting cast including Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Carl Lumbly, Xosha Roquemore, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, Giancarlo Esposito, Tim Blake Nelson, and Harrison Ford. That last cast member takes over the role of Thaddeus Ross (now the President of the United States) played in earlier MCU entries by the late William Hurt.

The fifth feature in Phase Five of this massive franchise, World finds the MCU in a unique place. Last year’s Deadpool & Wolverine was a massive blockbuster that took in $1.3 billion worldwide. On the flip side, there’s been recent under performers such as Eternals, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and The Marvels.

Earlier Captain America sagas with Evans were critically appreciated and made significant bucks. 2016’s Captain America: Civil War, the previous flick with the C.A. moniker, topped a billion globally. It didn’t hurt that it was essentially another Avengers tale. It made nearly $180 million on its opening weekend domestically.

Expectations are not as high nearly a decade later. The four-day tally should hover around $90 million. That’s where estimates are at and I don’t really see this significantly outdoing the anticipated range. In fact, falling slightly under wouldn’t shock me.

Captain America: Brave New World opening weekend prediction: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Paddington in Peru prediction, click here:

Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

February 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Slasher flick Heart Eyes and action comedy Love Hurts hope to achieve audience affection this weekend while competing with holdovers and a little football game on Sunday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Heart Eyes Box Office Prediction
Love Hurts Box Office Prediction

Sony’s Heart Eyes looks to fright fest fans and teens and, in this genre, there’s always the possibility of exceeding expectations. It might get to the teens, but I have it in the lower double digits for a runner-up showing.

Recent supporting category Oscar winners Ke Huy Quan and Ariana DeBose (and Super Bowl victor Marshawn Lynch) tackle Love Hurts. Universal would heart a start in double digits and especially teens though I suspect it could struggle to get there. My estimate puts it in third.

As for holdovers, DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man opened impressively (more on that below) and it should be top dog once again. The sophomore outing drop could be in the mid to high 40s.

Companion, despite a solid (at least for horror) B+ Cinemascore grade, may dip in the mid to high 40s as well with Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days in a close call for fifth.

Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:

1. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

2. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. Love Hurts

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

4. Companion

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)

Dog Man lapped all competitors with room to spare as the animated tale (tail?) based on Dav Pilkey’s works scored $36 million, well ahead of my $25.4 million projection. With an A Cinemascore grade, look for this to eye nine digits stateside.

Companion‘s second place showing was in line with expectations at $9.3 million, a tad under my $10.6 million call. The well-reviewed mix of horror, sci-fi, and satire only had a reported $15 million price tag so this is a decent result.

Mufasa: The Lion King was third with $6.3 million (I said $6.5 million), bringing the Disney property’s seven-week haul to $229 million.

Buddy comedy One of Them Days was fourth, holding up well in weekend #3 with $5.8 million (on target with my $6 million prediction). The total is $34 million,

Finally, as estimated, Flight Risk with Mark Wahlberg lost altitude in its second go-round. Plummeting from first to fifth, it made $5.4 million (a 53% ease). That’s close to my $5.7 million take as its ten-day earnings are $20 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 31-February 2 Box Office Predictions

DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to lap all competitors this weekend as the critically hailed horror pic Companion also opens. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be found here:

Dog Man Box Office Prediction
Companion Box Office Prediction

A spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, I have Dog performing right in range with its predecessor in the mid 20s. That should easily give it top dog status.

As for Companion, I’m thinking it’ll be runner-up. This latest scary movie starring Sophie Thatcher may perform similarly in the low double digits like her previous genre title Heretic did last November.

Flight Risk landed in 1st place this past frame in line with my expectations (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade and poor reviews, I have it plummeting over 50% in its sophomore outing. That could mean a fall from 1st to 5th with holdovers Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days having significantly smaller declines.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

2. Companion

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

3. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

4. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $6 million

5. Flight Risk

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (January 24-26)

Mel Gibson’s action thriller Flight Risk with a balding Mark Wahlberg led all pics with $11.5 million, in line with my $11.3 million call. It’s a fairly ho-hum start during these January doldrums and, as mentioned, I look for it to lose altitude quickly.

Mufasa: The Lion King was second with $8.5 million, on target with my $8.7 million prediction. The Disney property bumped its tally to $220 million after six weeks.

One of Them Days with Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of complimentary buzz to a 32% dip in weekend #2. It took in $8 million to rise above my $6.8 million projection. The ten-day take is $25 million.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $5.3 million (I said $5.1 million) for a six-week showing of $225 million.

While I correctly called the 1-4 order, I whiffed on the rest of my top 6. Moana 2 was fifth with $4.1 million for $449 million after nine weeks.

Steven Soderbergh’s experimental haunted house tale Presence debuted in sixth with $3.3 million. I did not do a predictions post for it. Profitability should happen given its reported $2 million price tag.

Wolf Man flamed out in its second weekend in seventh with a 70% drop and $3.2 million. I was more generous at $4.6 million and it has grossed a mere $17 million.

Finally, Brave the Dark, the latest drama from Angel Studios, was 12th with a lowly $2.8 million. Once again, I was kinder with a $5.1 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 24-26 Box Office Predictions

Mark Wahlberg looks to guide Flight Risk to #1 this weekend and Angel Studios premieres their latest drama Brave the Dark. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Flight Risk Box Office Prediction
Brave the Dark Box Office Prediction

The doldrums of January should continue at multiplexes with Flight Risk seeking action fans to get onboard. Directed by his Daddy’s Home 2 and Father Stu costar Mel Gibson, I have Wahlberg’s latest in the low double digits. That should be enough for the top spot.

After returning to first place by a nose, Mufasa: The Lion King should slip to second with One of Them Days in third after a better than anticipated runner-up showing (more on that below).

The fourth slot could be close between Brave the Dark and Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s 6th frame. Wolf Man had a disappointing rollout and could ease to sixth with a decline in the mid 50s or so.

And with that, here’s how I envision the top 6:

1. Flight Risk

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

2. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

3. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

4. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

5. Brave the Dark

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

6. Wolf Man

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (January 17-19)

In the weakest MLK weekend in nearly a quarter century, Mufasa: The Lion King managed to climb back into the winners circle with $12 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s ahead of my $9.5 million call and it gives the Disney property $206 million after five weeks.

Buddy comedy One of Them Days starring Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of solid reviews to second place and $11.8 million, easily overshadowing my $7.8 million projection. This is the first 2025 title to exceed expectations.

The same cannot be said for Wolf Man. Blumhouse’s horror reboot received plenty of subpar critical notices and audiences turned away. While I had it pegged for 1st at $16.6 million, it was third with only $10.8 million.

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $8.6 million compared to my $6.6 million estimate for a five-week total of $216 million.

Last weekend’s champ Den of Thieves 2: Pantera fell to fifth with $6.5 million. The 56% drop was steeper than I figured as I had it at $8.2 million. The ten-day take is $26 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…