DreamWorks is looking for their live-action remake of How to Train Your Dragon to breath some fire (sorry) into the box office when it opens June 13th. Updating their 2010 animated hit that spawned two sequels, Dean DeBlois (maker of the drawn Dragon trilogy) directs. The cast includes Mason Thames, Nico Parker, Gerard Butler, Nick Frost, Gabriel Howell, Julian Dennison, Bronwyn James, Harry Trevaldwyn, Ruth Codd, Peter Serafinowicz, and Murray McArthur.
This is a subgenre that has served Disney well in recent years and this summer with Lilo & Stitch (DeBlois made the 2002 original). DreamWorks should follow suit and this appears poised to achieve the best franchise opening thus far with room to spare. The original 15 years ago started with $43 million. 2014’s sequel improved upon that with $49 million while 2019’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World earned $55 million. While each premiere improved upon its predecessor, the first Dragon has the best overall domestic take ($217 million) followed by #2 ($177 million) and #3 ($160 million).
Some estimates have this approaching nine figures, but I’ll hedge my bets and go with mid to high eighties.
How to Train Your Dragon opening weekend prediction: $84.3 million
Ballerina, a spinoff of the John Wick franchise, hopes to step into the #1 spot this weekend and Wes Anderson’s latest comedy The Phoenician Scheme expands nationwide. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Ana de Armas headlines Ballerina (full title: From the World of John Wick: Ballerina) with series regulars appearing including Keanu Reeves. While I don’t have this approaching the heights of the previous two Wick installments, my mid 30s projection should be enough to top the charts.
As for Phoenician, it had an impressive per screen average in six venues this past frame. My high single digits estimate as it increases to around 1500 locations should mean fourth or fifth place with it performing in line with Anderson predecessor Asteroid City.
Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, the 1-2 finishers for the past two weekends, should each drop a spot with percentage dips in the mid 40s. I expect Karate Kid: Legends to experience a heftier decline in the mid to high 50s during its sophomore outing.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. Ballerina
Predicted Gross: $36.8 million
2. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $31.9 million
3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $15 million
4. The Phoenician Scheme
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Karate Kid: Legends
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)
Disney’s Lilo & Stitch continued to reign supreme with $61.8 million, a bit under my $66.4 million call. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature has collected $278 million in its ten days of release.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was runner-up with $27.2 million, on target with my $28.7 million forecast. Ethan Hunt’s final adventure stands at $122 million after two weeks in play.
Karate Kid: Legends debuted in third with $20.3 million which puts it in line with my $21.3 million prediction. The legacy sequel with Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan premiered on the lower end of its anticipated range.
Final Destination Bloodlines was fourth with $10.9 million, ahead of my $8 million projection for a three-week tally of $111 million.
Finally, acclaimed A24 horror flick Bring Her Back brought in a so-so $7 million for fifth, not matching my $8.5 million call.
Karate Kid: Legends hopes to kick into high gear at multiplexes this weekend. We also have horror pic Bring Her Back seeking to scare up decent dollars. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
The recent success of Cobra Kai on Netflix could assist with Legends performing well. Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan headline the sixth feature in the franchise that began over 40 years ago. My low 20s estimate puts it in third.
Bring Her Back is the sophomore feature from the Philippou brothers after their 2023 summer sleeper Talk to Me. My high single digits figure puts it in the fourth just ahead of Final Destination Bloodlines in its third outing.
I have the top two slots still belonging to Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning after they propelled the Memorial Day weekend to its highest earnings ever. My guesstimates have both easing in the low to mid 50s percent range.
Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:
1. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $66.4 million
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $28.7 million
3. Karate Kid: Legends
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
4. Bring Her Back
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $8 million
Box Office Results (May 23-26)
The Mouse House was in celebration mode as Lilo & Stitch achieved the largest Memorial Day weekend in history and surpassed the previous $160 million four-day record held by Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature made $146 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame while amassing $182.6 million counting Monday. While that’s under my respective predictions of $159.7 million and $196.6 million, it is still a scorching start for the Disney property as it will vie for highest domestic earner of summer 2025.
While Tom Cruise’s record was broken by Lilo, he set one of his own as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was second with $64 million for the three-day and $79 million for the four-day. That’s right on target with my $64.4 million and $80.8 million projections as the eighth and allegedly final Ethan Hunt adventure set a personal best for the franchise. It needed to do so considering the reported $400 million price tag.
Final Destination Bloodlines was third with $24.1 million from Friday to Monday and that’s on pace with my $24.9 million call. The sequel has taken in an impressive $94 million in two weeks.
Thunderbolts*/The New Avengers was fourth with $12.2 million, a shade below my $14 million forecast. The MCU property sits at $174 million in four weeks.
Sinners rounded out the top five with $11.9 million (I went higher at $14.5 million) for $258 million in six weeks.
The Last Rodeo, the latest faith-based drama from Angel Studios, lassoed $5.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $6.9 million (FRI-MON) in sixth. That’s a bit below my estimates of $6.4 million and $7.8 million.
Posting a commendable per screen average, critically lauded comedy Friendship with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd was seventh in its nationwide expansion to just over 1000 venues. It made $4.5 million over the three-day and $5.7 million adding Monday. That’s slightly more than my $4.2 million and $5.1 million predictions. It now has $8 million total in its coffers.
Finally, A Minecraft Movie lost steam due to Lilo with $2.9 million in eighth. I was more generous at $4.9 million. The blockbuster has brought in a massive $421 million after eight weeks.
I have talked extensively on the blog about how live-action remakes of Disney pics have received a decent amount of nominations. Titles such as Alice in Wonderland, Cinderella, The Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and Cruella lend themselves to races like Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Even this year’s critical and box office misfire Snow White could land a mention or two.
So where does Lilo & Stitch fit into the equation? Out this weekend, it live-action updates the 2002 original which scored a Best Animated Feature nod. Dean Fleischer Camp directs a cast including Maia Keoloha, Chris Sanders, Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Zach Galifianakis, Billy Magnussen, Courtney B. Vance, Hannah Waddingham, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.
Critical reaction is fair with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 55 Metacritic. This certainly won’t be the first Mouse House feature in this sub genre to land top-of-the-line attention. It also doesn’t correlate well to the tech races mentioned above. Chances are this will receive one less nomination than its source material. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.
Hollywood hopes moviegoers make it their mission to go to the movies over the long weekend as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch looks to rule the charts with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning placing second. There’s also The Last Rodeo from faith-based Angel Studios debuting and Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s dark comedy Friendship expanding wide. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be accessed here:
Nostalgia and the Mouse House’s marketing muscle should propel Lilo & Stitch to more impressive heights than, say, Snow White from earlier this year. I have the live-action version of the 2002 animated tale reaching just under $120 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend and just over $140 million for the four-day.
Tom Cruise should easily achieve runner-up status with the eighth and (final?) pic in his nearly 30-year-old franchise. I am estimating that The Final Reckoning will somewhat capitalize on its finale status with a three-day near $60 million (edging predecessor Dead Reckoning) and north of $70 million counting Monday.
The Last Rodeo could place sixth while I have Friendship in 7th place. Either has the chance to over perform, but I doubt it considering the amount of competition.
As for holdovers, Final Destination Bloodlines got off to a terrific start (more on that below), but should experience the hefty decline that usually greets horror titles. Holdovers The New Avengers, Sinners, and Minecraft should see minimal declines as is custom over this particular holiday.
And with that, here’s my top 8 take and keep in mind that grosses for returning flicks are a Friday to Monday forecast:
1. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $196.6 million (Friday to Monday); $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday)
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Monday); $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
3. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
4. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
5. The New Avengers
Predicted Gross: $14 million
6. The Last Rodeo
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday); $6.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
7. Friendship
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (Friday to Monday); $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday)
8. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (May 16-18)
As mentioned, Final Destination Bloodlines logged a far better than anticipated gross with $51.6 million. That’s easily the best premiere in the 25-year-old franchise and should kickstart plenty more Destination‘s to come. It surpassed my $42.2 million prediction and represents another success story for WB behind A Minecraft Movie and Sinners.
The New Avengers/Thunderbolts* fell to second after two weeks on top with $16.6 million, a tad shy of my $18.1 million prediction. The MCU adventure sits at $155 million after three weeks.
Sinners was third with $15.2 million (I said $15.9 million) as it has now bitten off $240 million in its five weeks.
A Minecraft Movie was fourth with $5.9 million compared to my $5.2 million call as the mega blockbuster has made $416 million after seven weeks.
The Accountant 2 rounded out the top five with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.6 million number. The sequel’s total is $58 million in four weeks.
Finally, critically drubbed Hurry Up Tomorrow starring The Weeknd stumbled in sixth with $3.3 million and that’s under my $4.5 million projection.
Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.
23 summers ago, Disney’s animated Lilo & Stitch narrowly opened in second to Minority Report with Tom Cruise. This Memorial Day weekend, the Mouse House’s live-action (and also animated) remake will attempt to outpace Cruise’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. That’s a mission it should achieve with room to spare.
Dean Fleischer Camp, maker of the acclaimed Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, is behind the camera. Chris Sanders, who wrote and directed the 2002 original, still provides the voice of Stitch with Maia Keoloha as Lilo. The supporting cast includes Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Billy Magnussen, Hannah Waddingham, Courtney B. Vance, Zach Galifianakis, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.
Expectations are high for a project that once was anticipated to be a Disney+ streaming premiere. Tracking suggests a nine digit performance over the holiday frame. The studio is no stranger to Memorial Day outputs and that includes these remakes. In 2019, Aladdin took in $91 million from Friday to Sunday and $116 million when factoring in Monday. Two years ago, The Little Mermaid made $95 million for the three-day and $118 million over four.
Lilo took in $273 million worldwide for its run nearly a quarter century ago and spawned direct-to-video sequels. A nostalgia factor and a dearth of competition for family audiences (as A Minecraft Movie winds down) could mean an even stronger opening than the aforementioned titles. I’ll say it manages to get close to $120 million from Friday to Sunday and over $140 million adding Monday. That would give it the second all-time Memorial weekend behind Top Gun: Maverick (more Cruise comparisons!) and just ahead of Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men’s Chest.
Lilo & Stitch opening weekend prediction: $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $196.6 million (Friday to Monday)
For my Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning prediction, click here:
The movie formerly known as Thunderbolts* looks to rule the box office once again with Sinners firmly in the runner-up position in this second May frame. That’s because there’s no new wide releases to challenge them and the top five should look similar to the month’s first weekend.
The MCU’s 36th entry Thunderbolts* (we’ll get to that asterisk) opened similarly to 2021 franchise titles Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million). Shang dropped in the mid-50s in its sophomore outing while Eternals fell a steeper 62%. With solid word-of-mouth and scant competition, a low to mid 50s decline is where I see this ending up.
Sinners looks to continue its meager drops and should see mid-20s in its fourth go-round while A Minecraft Movie, The Accountant 2, and Until Dawn should all hold at 3-5.
Back to that asterisk. So… (spoiler alert?… but not really) Disney/Marvel revealed today that Thunderbolts* is actually titled The New Avengers and it is listed that way on official materials. This all makes sense after you’ve seen it. Therefore I will honor the studio’s wishes and call it that moving forward.
Here’s how I see the high 5 shaking out:
1. The New Avengers
Predicted Gross: $33.8 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $24 million
3. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. The Accountant 2
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Until Dawn
Predicted Gross: $2.2 million
Box Office Results (May 2-4)
Thund…,errr, The New Avengers came in at the lower end of its anticipated range with $74.3 million, falling shy of my $79.3 million call. It’s not a bad result for the superhero tale, but it is several million short of what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February and nowhere near the earnings of previous sagas with the word Avengers in it.
Sinners hauled in another $33.1 million, in line with my $34 million forecast. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick has amassed $179 million in three weeks.
A Minecraft Movie was third with $13.7 million, slightly topping my $12.5 million projection. The Warner Bros smash is just under $400 million at $398 million after four weeks.
The Accountant 2 saw its numbers plummet 61% in weekend #2 with $9.4 million. That’s below my more generous $12.8 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $41 million.
Video game based horror pic Until Dawn rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.4 million) for $14 million in its two weeks.
The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.
Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.
Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.
Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).
Here’s how I have that high five playing out:
1. Thunderbolts*
Predicted Gross: $79.3 million
2. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $34 million
3. The Accountant 2
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Until Dawn
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (April 25-27)
Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.
The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.
The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.
A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.
New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.
Disney looks to squeeze more bucks out of a blue chip franchise with the 20th anniversary re-release of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith. It is the culmination of the oft criticized second trilogy in the vaunted franchise and this is generally considered the strongest of the three. Marking the last picture directed by series creator George Lucas, this one-week engagement could manage to bring the faithful and more out.
Last May, Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace was put back into multiplexes for its 25th anniversary. Results were better than anticipated with an $8.7 million debut. The second installment – Attack of the Clones – is not being granted a theatrical comeback. Pre-sales for Sith are quite encouraging and suggest this could double the Phantom figures. I’ll predict this gets past $20 million for what could be anywhere from a second to fourth place premiere.
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million
After a record breaking start, A Minecraft Movie should easily repeat in first position at the box office. Yet there’s a handful of newcomers jockeying for slots 2-6. We have the faith-based animated tale The King of Kings, Rami Malek’s spy thriller The Amateur, Blumhouse thriller Drop, Alex Garland’s Iraqi Freedom drama Warfare, and episodes 6-8 of the Christian show The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
Based on the best selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie achieved the best opening for a picture based on a video game (more on that below). I’m estimating a sophomore drop between 50-55% and that should put it somewhere in the mid 70s-low 80s.
A report surfaced today that The King of Kings has already taken in approximately $8 million in pre-sales. That’s surprising, but Angel Studios has certainly exceeded projections before via Sound of Freedom. A low 20s performance would easily put it in the runner-up spot.
After that it gets tricky. The Amateur, Warfare, and Drop could all open similarly in the $7-11 million range. I’ve got them placing in the order of the previous sentence with The Chosen in sixth.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $77.9 million
2. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
3. The Amateur
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
4. Warfare
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Drop
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
6. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (April 4-6)
The box office got a much needed jolt as A Minecraft Movie kicked off well above forecasts. With $162.7 million, it is 2025’s largest start thus far and, as mentioned, the highest video game adapted feature in history. The previous record was held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie with $146 million. I was way off with a prediction of only $92.5 million. With a less than expected B+ Cinemascore, it should fall further than the 37% that Mario dropped in its second weekend. Yet any way you cut it, this is a fantastic result for Warner Bros.
A Working Man with Jason Statham slid to second with $7.3 million, slightly under my $8 million call. The action thriller has made $27 million after ten days.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 placed third with $6.9 million, not quite matching my $7.8 million estimate. Episodes 3-5 of the popular program made a little more than half of the nearly $12 million achieved by Part 1. Per above, diminishing returns should continue with Part 3.
Disney dud Snow White was fourth with $5.9 million (I said $6.7 million). The troubling three-week tally is $77 million.
Horror flick The Woman in the Yard was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. With $4.5 million, the two-week total is $16 million.
I had Part 1 of the The Chosen in fifth with $5.2 million, but it plummeted 84% to seventh with $1.8 million for $17 million overall.
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