This coming Friday, Disney brings us Maleficent, a live-action pic focusing on the well-known villainess from Sleeping Beauty. In the title role is Angelina Jolie, who will aim for (and most likely get) her highest live-action debut of all time.
Costarring Elle Fanning and Sharlto Copley, we’ve seen this type of film work at the box office before when Snow White and the Huntsman got off to a $56.2 million start just two summers ago. With an estimated budget of $180 million, Disney clearly believes it has a winner on their hands and they’re probably right. Maleficent should succeed in bringing in kid viewers as well as an impressive female audience.
Jolie’s current largest opening is Wanted from 2008, which made $50.9M in its debut. As I see it, Maleficent should certainly top that number. I feel it will also surpass Snow White‘s gross from 2012. The marketing campaign has been strong and I’m predicting an initial gross in the mid-60s makes a lot of sense.
Maleficent opening weekend prediction: $66.2 million
For my A Million Ways to Die in the West prediction, click here:
On this coming Easter weekend, four new titles make their debut at multiplexes: the Johnny Depp sci-fi thriller Transcendence, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real, the horror parody sequel A Haunted House 2, and the Disney nature doc Bears. You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:
My predictions reflect a belief that Transcendence should open first, though it may face competition from Rio 2 in its second weekend. That animated sequel should suffer a rather small decline that isn’t as steep as last weekend’s returning champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
Heaven Is for Real could be poised for a solid opening with its shrewd Easter debut while I see fairly disappointing results for A Haunted House 2 and Bears.
And with that – my top six predictions for the holiday weekend:
1. Transcendence
Predicted Gross: $30.8 million
2. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (predicted five-day opening of $24.8 million)
5. A Haunted House 2
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
6. Bears
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
Box Office Results (April 11-13)
As predicted, Captain America: The Winter Soldier held onto the top spot in its sophomore weekend with $41.2 million, a bit below my $45.3M prediction. The animated Rio 2 opened right on pace with its predecessor with $39.3 million (the first did $39.2M out of the gate), slightly below my $41.7M estimate. The horror flick Oculus had a middling start with $12 million for third place, just above my $11M projection while Kevin Costner’s Draft Day had a weak fourth place debut with only $9.7 million, under my $13.2M estimate. Noah rounded out the top five with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.4M prediction.
The second weekend of 2014 brings three new wide release offerings for your consideration – the war drama Lone Survivor with Mark Wahlberg, Renny Harlin’s The Legend of Hercules, and Spike Jonze’s critically acclaimed Her with Joaquin Phoenix. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:
My predictions reflect a belief that Lone Survivor should fairly easily open at #1. The Legend of Hercules could completely bomb, but I’m giving it enough credit to reach double digits at the three spot. Her likely won’t reach double digits.
Last weekend’s champ Frozen should slip to second while I am predicting holdovers The Wolf of Wall Street and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug will battle Her for slots 4-6.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend box office:
1. Lone Survivor
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
3. The Legend of Hercules
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)
6. Her
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
Blogger’s note: For the past several months, I’ve been doing box office results analysis every Sunday. Starting next week, I will be combining the results from the previous weekend with this here weekly predictions post for the next weekend which comes every Monday. The main reason: I’m usually busy Sunday doing my predictions posts for the next week’s newcomers, which will continue without interruption. Secondly, the final box office numbers come in Monday so I can more accurately update how I performed. Until next time, my friends!
A significant portion of the country was frozen this weekend so it’s fitting that Disney’s Frozen took the top spot at the box office. What’s interesting is that it took six weeks for the animated hit to reach #1 and it did it due to a less than expected debut for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.
Frozen grossed $20.7 million, above my $19 million estimate and it’s earned $297 million since late November. A final tally of $350 million looks reachable.
This meant The Marked Ones, the fifth entry in the Paranormal Activity franchise, had to settle for second with $18.2 million, well below my $26.8M estimate. The series appears to be running out of steam and you have to wonder if some potential moviegoers on the East Coast and in the Midwest were too scared to leave their house to venture out and watch a scary movie.
Falling to third after three weeks at #1 was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. It grossed $16.2 million. My prediction? $16.2 million! Gold star! The Tolkien tale has hauled in $229 million in four weeks.
Holding up better than I figured in its second weekend was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. It earned $13.4 million, outpacing my $11M prediction. The very R rated pic has made $63 million so far and looks poised to pass the century mark at some point.
Wall Street narrowly beat out American Hustle, which was fifth in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13.1M projection. Gold star #2! Hustle has made an impressive $88 million in three weeks of wide release.
Placing sixth in weekend three was Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues with $11.1 million, a bit below my $12.5M estimate. Ron Burgundy and friends crossed the century mark as its gross stands at $109 million.
And there’s your weekend results! Be sure to check the blog later today for predictions on next weekend’s newcomers – Lone Survivor, The Legend of Hercules, and Her.
The new year at the box office will be rung in with a pretty sturdy horror franchise in the form of Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, opening Friday. Unless it greatly doesn’t match expectations, the fifth entry in the series should open atop the charts with the rest being filled by holiday leftovers. You can find my detailed prediction post on The Marked Ones here:
Christmas holdovers usually fall in the 30s to low 40s during the first weekend of the next year and I expect we’ll see that occur here. My predictions reflect Disney’s Frozen having one of the lower declines which should allow it to remain at #2 while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should end its three-week reign at number one and fall to third. I expect American Hustle and Anchorman 2 to round out the top five. This means Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street should drop out of the top five in its second weekend. While it had a healthy debut (grossing $34 million over five days), audiences were polarized by it, evidenced by its weak C Cinemascore average.
And with that, my predictions for the top six at the box office during weekend #1 of 2014:
1. Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones
Predicted Gross: $26.8 million
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $19 million (representing a drop of 33%)
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 38%)
6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 41%)
This would be a great time to remind you of the website www.boxofficeace.com – where you can make your own predictions on the opening weekends of new box office entries. This week would be a fantastic time to start (only takes a sec to set up profile) because the competition begins anew with 2014 rolling in. On the site, you can compete against me and see if you can make box office predictions better than yours truly.
And there you have it! Check by Saturday for early updates on the blog’s Facebook page and Sunday with final results!
There was a whole bunch of new movies that opened Christmas Day, but numbers 1-4 were occupied by holdovers. The Wolf of Wall Street was the top newcomer while The Secret Life of Walter Mitty had a just OK opening and 47 Ronin, Grudge Match, and Justin Bieber’s Believe disappointed.
For the third weekend in a row, it was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug at the top spot with $29.8 million – above my $25.7M estimate. The middle chapter in Peter Jackson’s Tolkien trilogy has earned $190 million in its three weeks of release so far.
Disney’s Frozen was close behind with $28.8 million, surpassing my $22.1M projection. The animated feature has grossed an impressive $248 million so far and should go north of $300 million when all is said and done.
Ron Burgundy and company were third with Anchorman: The Legend Continues earning $20.1 million in weekend #2, right in line with my $19.6M estimate. Anchorman has made $83.6 million so far, nearly matching the entire domestic gross of the original.
David O. Russell’s awards contender American Hustle was fourth with $19.5 million – beyond my $14.9M projection. Hustle has grossed $60 million in two weeks and is very likely to cross the century mark at some point.
It was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street taking honors as top newbie. The three hour sex and drugs fest with Leo DiCaprio made $18.5 million over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend and $34.3 million since its Wednesday debut. While this is below my respective estimates of $25.4M and $44.2M, this is still a solid opening. Where Wolf could soon falter is with its C Cinemascore average. Audiences are clearly not liking what they’re seeing and there could be rather substantial drop-offs in future weekends.
Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks had a big jump in its second weekend with $14 million for sixth, above my $10.6M estimate. It’s earned $37.8M in two weeks.
Ben Stiller’s comedic drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty was seventh with $13 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $25.5 million since the Wednesday start, outpacing my projections of $11.7M and $19.3M. This opening could best be described as middle of the pack and it’ll be interesting to see how it holds up over the next couple of weekends.
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was eighth with $10.2 million, above my $7.7M projection. Fire has made $391 million since its November opening, currently sits at #18 for all-time domestic grossers, and still looks to top Iron Man 3 as 2013’s biggest hit.
The martial arts flick with Keanu Reeves 47 Ronin opened at ninth with $9.8 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $20.5 million since Wednesday. It earned under my predicted three-day estimated (I said $11.4M) but over my five-day estimate ($17.8M). Look for it to fade fast.
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas rounded out the Top Ten with $7.4 million (I didn’t predict it would be in the top ten).
This left the Sylvester Stallone/Robert De Niro comedy Grudge Match at #11 with a very poor opening well below my expectations. Match grossed $7.3 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $13.4 million since Wednesday. I thought it would do much better and predicted $13.9M for the three-day and $24.5M for the five-day. Oops. This is Stallone’s third bomb of the year after Bullet to the Head and Escape Plan.
Finally, Beliebers totally failed to turn out for his documentary Believe. It sputtered at #14 with $2 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $4.2 million since the Wednesday start. I predicted it would do $5.8M for the three-day and $10.3 million for the five. Oops again.
Whew. And there’s your Christmas weekend box office results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction next weekend’s only newcomer, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.
On this day in Movie History, otherwise known as Christmas Eve – Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman tied the knot 23 years ago in 1990. Their union resulted in three motion pictures where the couple worked with the late Tony Scott (Days of Thunder), Ron Howard (Far and Away), and, of course, Stanley Kubrick (Eyes Wide Shut). The marriage would last until 2001. Cruise would go onto other high-profile relationships and Kidman would marry Keith Urban and win an Oscar for 2002’s The Hours (something her ex-husband has yet to do).
43 years ago today marked the debut of Disney’s animated The Aristocats, which is notable for being the last studio pic that Mr. Disney approved himself, prior to his 1966 death.
As for celebrity birthdays, we have Stephanie Meyer, author of the “Twilight” series that turned into a highly successful film franchise that ended just last year. We also have director Lee Daniels, who broke out of the gate with 2009’s Oscar nominated Precious and had a hit this year with Lee Daniels’ The Butler.
As for the daily Six Degrees of Separation between birthday folks –
Stephanie Meyer wrote the Twilight series starring Kristen Stewart
Kristen Stewart was with Forest Whitaker in Panic Room
Forest Whitaker was the star of Lee Daniels’ The Butler
And there you have it – Christmas Eve in Movie History!
It’s the most wonderful time of the year and, at multiplexes, by far the most crowded time of the year! On Christmas Day, five pictures enter an already crowded marketplace. They are: Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, the boxing comedy Grudge Match with Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller’s fantasy drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, martial arts flick 47 Ronin with Keanu Reeves, and the Justin Bieber documentary Believe. You can read my individual posts on all five at the following links:
By my estimates there will be nine – yes, nine – movies that gross double digits over the weekend. And there may well be a fierce battle for #1. In this same holiday weekend last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell only 13% in its third weekend and I expect current #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to fall no further than 20%. This should put it in a neck and neck race with my prediction for Wolf of Wall Street.
Disney’s Frozen stands an excellent chance of gaining audience from last weekend and it too has an outside shot at the top spot. Another title I expect to post gains: Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks which had a rather middling opening this past weekend at $9.3 million but should benefit from positive word of mouth.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues had a solid opening ($40 million over five days), but it was at the lesser end of expectations. Still, the holiday time frame should prevent it from suffering a large decline. The same can be said for American Hustle, which started strong out of the gate last weekend with $19.1 million.
One thing is for sure: the film calendar doesn’t get more crowded than this. After that, many things are highly uncertain but here’s my best guesses for the Christmas 2013 Top Ten:
1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 18%)
2. The Wolf of Wall Street
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million ($44.2 million predicted for five-day opening)
3. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing an increase of 13%)
4. Anchorman: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)
5. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Grudge Match
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million ($24.5 million predicted for five-day opening)
7. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million ($19.3 million predicted for five-day opening)
8. 47 Ronin
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million ($17.8 million predicted for five-day opening)
9. Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing an increase of 15%)
10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
These predictions would leave Justin Bieber’s Believe out of the top ten and likely in the #12 slot behind the second weekend of Walking with Dinosaurs.
And there you have it! My predictions for Christmas 2013. Of course, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week with final results Sunday. And have yourself a Merry little Christmas, my friends!
In a result that surprised yours truly, Ron Burgundy and company couldn’t dislodge Gandalf and company from the top spot at the box office in this crowded pre-holiday weekend.
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug remained #1 for the second week in a row with an estimated $31.4 million – exactly on target with my $31.5M projection. Peter Jackson’s middle chapter in the franchise has earned $127.5M in its ten days of release.
This left Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues in the two spot and well below my projected opening. The sequel to the 2004 original made $26.7 million over the Friday to Sunday frame and $40 million since its Wednesday debut. I had it earning $41.9M and $61.2M, respectively, over those time periods. While the opening is decent, this is clearly below my overzealous expectations. Furthermore, audiences seem a bit disappointed with what they’re seeing as they awarded it a B Cinemascore grade, which is rather low.
There was a virtual tie for the #3 spot as Disney’s Frozen took in $19.1 million. I incorrectly had it left out of the top five. Oops. The animated pic has earned $191.5M since its November premiere. David O. Russell’s American Hustle also made $19.1 million, just under my $20.5M projection. This is a solid debut for the critically lauded comedy/drama and its per-screen average was almost identical to that of the Anchorman sequel.
Coming in fifth but well below my estimate was Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks. It started out of the gate rather slowly with $9.3 million, way under my $17.1M projection. Banks will count on very low drop-offs over the next few weekends and the chances of that are good with its A Cinemascore grade.
Finally, the animated 3D tale Walking with Dinosaurs was a huge disappointment with an 8th place opening at $7.3 million. I predicted it would earn $18.9M. Oops again. Family audiences are still choosing Frozen over this new offering.
Today on the blog – you’ll see the movie marketplace getting even more crowded as I’ll post predictions for all five features opening Christmas Day: The Wolf of Wall Street, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, and the Justin Bieber doc Believe. Stay tuned!
The landscape of film changed forever on This Day in Movie History 76 years ago when Disney’s Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs had its world premiere at the Carthay Circle Theatre in Hollywood. The brainchild of Walt Disney, Snow White was the first full-length animated feature from the studio and the rest, as they say, was history. The picture was awarded an honorary Oscar and adjusted for inflation, Snow White is one of the top ten grossing films of all time.
On the other hand, 19 years ago today, Macaulay Culkin would begin to see his box office fortunes take a turn for the worse in Richie Rich. After the huge success of the Home Alone pics in 1990 and 1992, Rich fell short money wise grossing $38 million against a $40 million budget. This really marked the beginning of the end of Macaulay’s success as a draw for moviegoers.
Twelve years today marked the opening of Ron Howard’s A Beautiful Mind with Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly (in an Oscar winning performance). The true story of John Nash went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, though Crowe would lose out Best Actor to Denzel Washington in Training Day (Crowe had won the year prior for Gladiator).
As for celebrity birthdays, double Oscar winner and activist Jane Fonda is 76 today while the man who has the most DVD’s/Blu Rays in my collection, Samuel L. Jackson, is 65.
Keeping with my theme of doing Six Degrees of Separation for the birthday actors:
Jane Fonda was in Lee Daniels’ The Butler with John Cusack
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 