Tag: Disney

Cars 3 Box Office Prediction

Pixar has its entry in the summer box office derby as Cars 3 opens next weekend. The threequel will have the honor of being the highest grossing animated sequel of the season for two weeks until Despicable Me 3 arrives.

Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy, Cristela Alonzo, Armie Hammer, Bonnie Hunt, Kerry Washington, and Nathan Fillion are among the actors lending their voices to the project. Reportedly, the late Paul Newman (who contributed to the original) will also be heard in flashback sequences.

The auto themed comedy franchise is not considered among the best that Pixar has produced. The 2006 original opened to $60 million with an eventual $244 million domestic haul. The 2011 sequel premiered a bit higher at $66 million, but earned considerably less overall at $191 million. That’s rather low compared to what Pixar has done in recent years. It’s also worth noting that Cars 2 is generally considered the worst of the 17 pictures the studio has produced thus far.

Bottom line: summer ’17 Pixar will be nothing compared to summer ’16 Pixar when Finding Dory opened to $135 million and ended up being the season’s highest grosser at $486 million. I’ll predict Cars 3 does manage to make just under what the first did 11 years ago and eventually struggles to make $191 million made by its predecessor.

Cars 3 opening weekend prediction: $57.8 million

For my Rough Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

For my All Eyez on Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

 

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Box Office Prediction

After a six-year hiatus, Jack Sparrow and company return Memorial Day weekend in Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. The Disney property represents the fifth pic in the 14 year-old franchise with Johnny Depp returning in the role that made him a global box office superpower (at least for a while). Joachim Ronning and Espen Sandberg are new directors to the series. Costars include Javier Bardem, Geoffrey Rush, Brenton Thwaites, and apparently Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley reprising their roles (they sat out the fourth edition). Even Paul McCartney is said to have a cameo!

While Disney has been printing money with their Star Wars, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Pixar, and live-action animated reboots, Pirates is more of a risk. First, there’s the massive reported $320 million price tag. Then there’s the matter of Depp not being the draw he once was (tabloid fodder hasn’t helped much). It was just during the last Memorial Day weekend that the Depp/Disney combo resulted in the flop of Alice Through the Looking Glass. 

And there’s genuine curiosity as to whether the franchise has run low on steam. Let’s take a trip down Sparrow’s box office memory lane, shall we?

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)

Opening Weekend: $46.6 million; Overall Domestic Gross: $305.4 million

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (2006)

Opening Weekend: $135.6 million; Overall Domestic Gross: $423.3 million

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (2007)

Opening Weekend: $114.7 million; Overall Domestic Gross: $309.4 million

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)

Opening Weekend: $90.1 million; Overall Domestic Gross: $241 million

As you can see, the Pirates saga hit its high mark over a decade ago and the last entry in 2011 posted the lowest total domestic earnings. I believe the days of Pirates making $100 million in a weekend are over. Even though it shouldn’t have much trouble at all placing first over the holiday weekend, I’ll predict a four-day gross in the high 70s to low 80s is most likely.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales opening weekend prediction: $78.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Baywatch prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/18/baywatch-box-office-prediction/

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Movie Review

It’s all about family in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, the follow-up to the wildly successful 2014 entry into the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Three years ago, Star-Lord, Gamora and company brought a humor and irreverence to the comic book picture previously unseen at that level. Of course, we saw flashes of it with Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man and others, but Guardians felt fresh with its Top 40 oldies soundtrack and constantly winking screenplay.

James Gunn is back as writer and director and the elements that made the predecessor successful are here again. Our second helping manages to provide enough material to admire, even if it can’t match what made the first one so special. We have a lot of subplots competing for screen time as the MCU continues to expand. The bulk of the characters here and elsewhere in Avengers world will eventually congregate and it’ll be a real test of script allocation for attention.

The attention here primarily focuses on Star-Lord (Chris Pratt) and his backstory. As we recall from the original, he’s got some Daddy issues and after three decades plus, he mets him in the form of Ego (Kurt Russell). Dad is a part human and part Godlike being who quickly seduces his offspring with his nifty own planet that’s a marvel itself in production design.

The other Guardians are here with Gamora (Zoe Saldana) still dealing with her super jealous sister Nebula (Karen Gillian) and unspoken chemistry with Star-Lord. Drax (Dave Bautista) reminds us that he can charmingly insult people with the best of them and a lot of that is saved for Ego’s right-hand woman Mantis (Pom Klementieff). And Rocket (voice of Bradley Cooper) and Baby Groot (Vin Diesel’s vocal stylings) return to provide comic relief. The nefarious Rocket and seriously adorable Groot are certainly allotted their share of smile inducing moments. Our family drama also means the return of Yondu (Michael Rooker doing fine work under all that makeup), who raised Star-Lord.

Pratt reminds us why Guardians rocketed him into silver screen stardom and Russell, with swagger to match, is an inspired casting choice. The action sequences are of the highest caliber and I’ll give the opening battle sequence credit for incorporating recent Rock and Roll Hall of Fame inductees Electric Light Orchestra.

So while Vol. 2 is totally acceptable popcorn entertainment, it didn’t leave me grinning from ear to ear like during the first one’s conclusion. Perhaps the attitude that made 2014’s pic so effective feels more familiar now (Deadpool in its own more R rated way continued that trend). Perhaps there are too many plot lines competing against themselves. And perhaps the revelations in the aforementioned familial situations are a bit predictable. That said, Vol. 2 keeps the MCU assembly line pleasantly humming along.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

The summer movie season has officially kicked off today with the release of Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. The sequel to the 2014 blockbuster is expected to rake in tons of dough and reviews has mostly been solid (its Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 82%).

No superhero tale has managed a Best Picture nomination at the Academy Awards. The Dark Knight and Deadpool may have come close, but didn’t make the final cut. That certainly will not change here, but Vol. 2 could be a factor in some down the line races.

The first Guardians nabbed two nods three years ago – for Best Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling. It would stand to reason that this follow-up could score nominations in both of those races once again and possibly one or two of the Sound categories. It probably won’t win any gold statues, but it could add to the variety of technical categories that the Marvel Cinematic Universe has amassed in the last few years.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Born in China Box Office Prediction

The DisneyNature division of the Mouse Factory brings us the documentary Born in China next weekend. This is the seventh feature that the studio has timed to Earth Day focusing on nature and animals. Pandas and monkeys are the general subject in this case.

Narrated by John Krasinski, the Chinese version has already been released. The grosses of the six previous pictures have performed as follows:

Earth (2009) – $8.8 million debut

Oceans (2010) – $6 million

African Cats (2011) – $6 million

Chimpanzee (2012) – $10.6 million

Bears (2014) – $4.7 million

Monkey Kingdom (2015) – $4.5 million

As you can see, the opening weekends for the last pics have been the lowest of the bunch thus far. I suspect Born in China may fall in the same ballpark and I’ll put it just past $5M (people love pandas!).

Born in China opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

Beauty and the Beast Movie Review

Any challenges of adapting one of Disney’s classics that happens to be one of their best mostly fall by the wayside in Beauty and the Beast. Over a quarter century ago, the 1991 Mouse Factory version earned the status of being the first animated feature to receive a Best Picture nomination. It was deserved and Beauty helped usher in a renaissance for the studio with Broadway level music coupled with its tale as old as time storylines.

Our new Beauty doesn’t rock the boat by any means. Is it a factory made production meant to fog up our nostalgia goggles? Sure. Yet it’s crafted with reverence, the music still holds up, and it looks lovely.

It seems silly to recount the plot that’s been around for our collective childhoods in one form or another, but let’s get through it. We have Belle (a strong Emma Watson) living a rather boring existence in 18th century France with her doting dad (Kevin Kline). She’s being pursued by the chauvinistic Gaston (Luke Evans) who wishes to marry her. Her ho hum existence takes a turn when Dad is captured by the Beast (Dan Stevens), who lives in a dilapidated castle that the other French villagers have long forgotten. He was cursed many moons ago for his inability to love. When Belle travels there and trades her father’s freedom for her own, the strange relationship between the title characters commences.

There really isn’t too much new from this reboot compared to 1991. We have a couple more musical numbers, lest you forget the animated version was a mere 85 minutes. Alan Menken returns to do the music and those magnificent staples like the title track and “Be Our Guest” are happily intact. Bill Condon (whose varied filmography includes Twilight pics and more adult fare like Gods and Monsters and Mr. Holmes) directs with an eye on preserving what we appreciated about what came before.

Like the drawn Beauty, the Beast’s castle is filled with inanimate objects who are quite animated. Ian McKellen is clock Cogsworth, Ewan McGregor voices candelabra Lumiere, and Emma Thompson is Mrs. Potts. She acquits herself just fine in the part, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t miss Angela Lansbury singing that iconic dancing tune toward the finale. Speaking of animated, Josh Gad has his proper comic relief moments in the role of LeFou, Gaston’s sidekick.

Disney has unleashed a gold mine with this recent strategy of updating their canon with live-action. Some have worked better than others and Beauty falls on the better side because it had incredibly strong material adapt from. The team behind this recognize it and are content knowing they had something there to begin with.

*** (out of four)

Beauty and the Beast Box Office Prediction

Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast arrives in theaters next weekend and it looks poised for quite a fantastic opening. Bill Condon serves behind the camera (he directed the last two Twilight installments recently) with Emma Watson as Belle and Dan Stevens as the Beast. Costars include Luke Evans, Kevin Kline, Josh Gad, Ian McKellen, Ewan McGregor, Stanley Tucci, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, and Emma Thompson.

The Mouse Factory has had tremendous success with their reboots of their classic animated tales. 2014’s Maleficent took in $241 million stateside. The following year, Cinderella cleared $200 million. Last year’s The Jungle Book scored even more impressively with $364 million.

Beauty stands a great shot at outdoing them all. For starters, the 1991 original is beloved (it was the first animated feature to nab a Best Picture nomination). The Disney marketing machine has been in high gear and turnout among youngsters and females in particular should be substantial. Reviews (while not gushing) have been solid and it stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes.

There is little doubt that this will post 2017’s largest opening so far. Just how high can it go? I am predicting it will achieve one of the top ten domestic premieres of all time. My estimate puts it at #10, right in between The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight for a truly beast mode roll out.

Beauty and the Beast opening weekend prediction: $158.8 million

For my The Belko Experiment prediction, click here:

The Belko Experiment Box Office Prediction

 

Oscar Watch: Beauty and the Beast

Disney’s live-action version of their acclaimed 1991 animated tale (as old as time) Beauty and the Beast is out next weekend. It’s a safe bet that it makes a killing at the box office. It could approach the $364 million territory that The Jungle Book achieved last year and will almost certainly post 2017’s biggest opening thus far, overtaking Logan.

Let’s not forget: the quarter century plus version of Belle and her Beastly beau was the first animated feature to be nominated for Best Picture. Any chance that this rendering of the classic story could follow suit?

Short answer: no. Beast currently sits at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a decent score but way under the 95% reached by Jungle and that couldn’t get a Picture nod. That said, Beauty could be a factor in some down the line categories. Production Design, Visual Effects, and Makeup and Hairstyling are all possibilities. Where it’s most likely to show up is in Costume Design, where the studio’s recent remakes of Cinderella and Maleficent both scored nominations.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

2016: The Year of Disney

Towards the end of each calendar year, I’ve put up posts honoring the people who have captured our movie going attention during that time period. 2015 was the first year that I honored a feeling in one post as opposed to an individual. Last year, it was Nostalgia and it fit due to the box office potency of titles like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Jurassic World, among others.

In 2016, the initial posting is again not a human, but a studio. And it’s Disney. The Mouse Factory has set the all-time record for studio grosses in a calendar year and its list of blockbusters is something to behold.

Currently, Disney is responsible for half of the top ten grossing pictures of the year and that list will grow to six very shortly with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

Let’s break it down: Finding Dory ($486 million) is #1 with Captain America: Civil War ($408M) at second. Rogue is likely to join the top three for a Disney trifecta atop the year.

#4 is The Jungle Book ($364M). #6 is Zootopia ($341M) and #9 is Doctor Strange ($226M). Moana is sitting at #11 right now with $162M.

In short, the studio is making a killing on their three most valued properties: animation and the live-action adaptations of them, Marvel Studios, and the Star Wars franchise. That is bound to continue in 2017 with animated features like Cars 3 and Coco. As for the live-action remakes, expect March’s Beauty and the Beast to do boffo business. On the Marvel side, we have Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Thor: Ragnorak. And of the Star Wars juggernaut, we have Episode VIII (still untitled) invading theaters in December.

Of course, not everything Disney released this year was a smash. There were high-profile flops like Alice Through the Looking Glass and The BFG. Also, Pete’s Dragon did decent business, but nothing compared to its other renderings of the animated classics. In 2017, a big question mark is whether or not they can successfully reinvigorate another once popular series with Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.

Those few disappointments aside, it was a watershed year for Disney and they deservedly get the first mention in my year end honors.

My 2016 posts will continue tomorrow…

 

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Box Office Prediction

The saga continues in the most powerful franchise force in movie history when Rogue One: A Star Wars Story hits theaters next weekend. It’s been one year since Star Wars: The Force Awakens broke a slew of box office records when Disney took over the series, including best opening of all time and highest grossing domestic earner ever.

All seven pictures that have populated the science fiction tales have been classified as Episodes as part of an ongoing story featuring some of the most beloved and feared characters (plus Jar Jar) on the silver screen. Rogue is our first spin-off and it takes place between Episodes III (2005’s Revenge of the Sith) and IV (the 1977 original A New Hope). That means it focuses on the team tasked with stealing plans for the Death Star. Felicity Jones headlines a new cast of characters that includes Forest Whitaker, Diego Luna, Ben Mendelsohn, Mads Mikkelsen, Donnie Yen and Alan Tudyk. It also means the return of Darth Freakin’ Vader complete with James Earl Jones voicing him. Gareth Edwards (who lasted 2014’s successful Godzilla reboot) directs.

Simply put, the return of the franchise a year ago after ten years of dormancy couldn’t have gone much better financially. Awakens took in an astonishing $247 million out of the gate and reached a $936 million eventual domestic haul. The eagerly awaited Episode VIII will be out in the same mid-December weekend next year. Rogue One is not expected to take in what Force did last year or VIII will next year due to its spin-off status. That said, expectations are still very high.

So the question is: just how high can this go? Some reports have suggested a number between $130-$150 million and that’s certainly a feasible estimate. Yet I can’t shake a feeling that it’ll manage to get a bit more. Rogue is in the enviable position of being the first spin-off and arriving just a calendar year behind the franchise’s return to global domination. In order to accomplish 2016’s largest opening, it would need to top another huge Disney property, Captain America: Civil War which made $179 million to kick summer off.

I don’t think it quite gets there, but generating $160-$170 million seems within reach. My estimate would give it the eighth biggest debut of all time between the final Harry Potter at $169 million and this spring’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice at $166 million. Yes, my projection is a bit higher than what I’ve seen thus far. Yet it’s Star Wars, folks.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story opening weekend prediction: $168.3 million

For my Collateral Beauty prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/06/collateral-beauty-box-office-prediction/