97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The fourth post in this series is Best Actor. If you missed my write-ups for the other three acting derbies, you can access them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

Truth be told, this is the easiest quintet of the acting categories to forecast. There are five performers who have nabbed nominations in four of the most important precursors – the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list. They are: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave). The safe bet is to predict this group being the Oscar hopefuls and that’s where my head is at currently.

However, Craig in particular could be vulnerable. Queer is not a contender in Best Picture or any other race with the possible exception of Adapted Screenplay (and that’s a long shot).

Before we discuss actors who could replace him, let’s spend a moment remembering those leading men who were once looked at as possibilities. This is before their movies flamed out or their roles just weren’t “baity” enough. It is also due to them not really showing up anywhere in precursors. I’m looking at you, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker: Folie à Deux. And Adam Driver in Megalopolis is in that club. Same goes for Paul Mescal (Gladiator II), Tom Hanks (Here), Kevin Costner (Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), Cillian Murphy (Small Things like These), and Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time).

There’s three gentlemen who made the BAFTA long list who really have no shot at Oscar glory – Kingsley Ben-Adir (Bob Marley: One Love), Jude Law (Firebrand), and Dev Patel (Monkey Man). There are Globe nominees in Actor (Musical or Comedy) that you could say the same about – Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) and Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness).

That leaves 5 performances jockeying for one slot: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), and Sebastian Stan (A Different Man). I remind you that, as of now, I’d put them all behind Craig. Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Jesse Eisenberg’s fortunes could rise slightly if A Real Pain gets into Best Picture (which I am forecasting it won’t at press time). I suspect voters will only honor his costar Kieran Culkin in supporting and I’d rank him 4th out of these 5 possibilities. Eisenberg has only managed a Globe nod which he did not win.

Hugh Grant also nabbed a Globe nod in the horror pic Heretic and was BAFTA longlisted and is up at Critics Choice. Had he emerged victorious for Actor (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes, he might be a more attractive pick. This is a little tempting since he’s never received Oscar attention, but I have him 2nd out of the 5 possibilities.

Glen Powell has had a great couple of years with massive hits Top Gun: Maverick, Anyone but You, and Twisters. His turn in Richard Linklater’s acclaimed comedy was an early trendy pick for inclusion. Like Eisenberg and Grant, he was up at the Globes and fell short. I have him 5th out of 5 possibilities.

Sebastian Stan’s embodiment of a young Donald Trump in The Apprentice was Globe nominated and BAFTA longlisted. The Critics Choice and SAG omissions sting though I’d rank him 1st of these 5 possibilities.

For our double shot of Stan, he did win Actor (Musical or Comedy) for his role in A Different Man at the Golden Globes. Yet none of the six nominated performers in that category are truly seen as viable hopefuls at Oscar. I have this iteration of Stan 3rd of these 5 possibilities.

OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do my final picks. My post for Best Director is up next!

April 12-14 Box Office Predictions

A24 is looking for Civil War to be their biggest box office breakout so far when it opens this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Civil War Box Office Prediction

In order to set the all-time opening premiere record for the studio, it needs to eclipse the low teens start Hereditary managed in 2018. That shouldn’t be a problem as I have it posting a high teens beginning. That should be enough for a #1 perch.

That means Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slide to second after two weeks atop the charts with a high 40s-low 50s decline. The other sequel with Empire at the end – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire – might maintain its third place position as I have current #2 Monkey Man experiencing a larger drop. I actually have Monkey sliding three spots. Kung Fu Panda 4 may manage to rise from 5th to 4th as its fall should be less than the sophomore frame of The First Omen, which had a highly disappointing debut (more on that below).

And with that, my forecast for the top 5:

1. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $18 million

2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

5. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (April 5-7)

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, as anticipated, had an understandable 61% second weekend plummet to $31.2 million. That’s right on target with my $31.8 million prediction as the impressive two-week total is $134 million.

Dev Patel’s inaugural behind the camera project Monkey Man was runner-up and kicked off on the lower end of expectations. With $10.1 million, it came in well under my $16.6 million take.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $9 million in its third haunting. That’s hotter than my $7.6 million projection as it has amassed $88 million.

The First Omen, as mentioned, might have been victim to horror genre overload. Despite mostly heavenly reviews, the demonic prequel was DOA with $8.3 million. I was more generous at $13.3 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 rounded out the top five at $7.7 million (I said $6.5 million) as the animated sequel is up to $165 million in five weeks and has grossed more than parts 2 and 3 domestically already. It will not, however, match the $215 million that the original took in.

Finally, Dune: Part Two was sixth with $7.4 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week bounty of $265 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 5-7 Box Office Predictions

A pair of newcomers attempts to dethrone Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire from its perch atop the charts after a terrific Easter start. We have Dev Patel’s action thriller Monkey Man and horror prequel The First Omen out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Monkey Man Box Office Prediction

The First Omen Box Office Prediction

Neither is likely to dislodge the Warner Bros monster mash from a second frame in first after its massive launch (more on that below). I expect New Empire to have a rather large drop in the high 50s to low 60s.

With the caveat that scary movies can exceed expectations and The First Omen could surprise, I do see Monkey Man managing a runner-up showing in the mid to high teens. Strong reviews should help propel this to solid numbers.

The First Omen may struggle a bit since its franchise doesn’t have the track record of more recent others (it’s been 18 years between entries). My low teens take puts it in firmly in third.

The 4-6 slots should be held by holdover sequels Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Dune: Part Two, and Kung Fu Panda 4 with similar earnings between the trio.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.8 million

2. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $16.6 million

3. The First Omen

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

Box Office Results (March 29-31)

March ended with gargantuan results for Warner Bros as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rose above prognoses with a fiery $8o million. That decimated my projection of $52.2 million as the fifth MonsterVerse release scored the second best premiere of the quintet behind 2014’s Godzilla.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire had a chilling fall in weekend #2 at 65% to $15.5 million. That’s well under my generous $21.8 million prediction. The weaker B+ Cinemascore grade this Empire received seems to be reflected in the hefty drop.

Dune: Part Two was third with $11.3 million in its fifth go-round, on target with my $11 million call. The total is up to $252 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth at $10.3 million (I said $10.6 million) for a four-week haul of $151 million.

Immaculate rounded out the top five with $3.2 million in its sophomore outing, on pace with my $3 million forecast. The overall gross is $11 million.

Finally, Arthur the King was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.8 million projection. The three-week result is $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Monkey Man Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures looks for Monkey Man to make the lion’s share of box office dollars when it opens on April 5th. Dev Patel (a Supporting Actor nominee for 2016’s Lion) makes his directorial debut in the action thriller with John Wickish vibes. He also headlines and cowrote the pic that premiered at South by Southwest to general acclaim (the RT score is 92%). Sharlto Copley, Pitobash, Sobhita Dhulipala, Sikandar Kher, and Vipin Sharma costar. Jordan Peele serves as a producer.

The effective ads could lure genre enthusiasts searching for Wick style violence, even if Patel is far from a bankable commodity (though expect The Green Knight stans to be first in line). This could be an example of cinephiles being more thrilled to view it than general audiences. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if this overperforms and that could mean a high teens to low 20s start. Mid teens might be more likely.

Monkey Man opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million

For my The First Omen prediction, click here:

The First Omen Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Monkey Man

Dev Patel’s directorial debut Monkey Man received its first look at South by Southwest prior to an April 5th release. The hardcore action flick is getting some cheers. With 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, the actor turned filmmaker and co-writer (a Supporting Actor nominee for 2016’s Lion) could have a spring sleeper hit. Jordan Peele is among the producers with a supporting cast including Sharlto Copley, Pitobash, Vipin Sharma, Sikandar Kher, and Sobhita Dhulipala.

While some reviews hone in on the overall style with shoutouts to the cinematography, Monkey isn’t really the type of material Oscar goes for. The chances of it factoring in any race seems minor. Where it might pop up is at next year’s DGA Awards with Patel in the First-Time Feature category. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2016: The Final Five

We have reached 2016 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-15, you can peruse them here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

Best Picture 2011: The Final Five

Best Picture 2012: The Final Five

Best Picture 2013: The Final Five

Best Picture 2014: The Final Five

Best Picture 2015: The Final Five

We know one thing for sure – Moonlight from Barry Jenkins is in. As you may recall, it had to wait a tad longer to win Best Picture when an envelope mishap caused Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway to wrongly proclaim La La Land as the voters choice.

As for the 8 other hopefuls (including La La), here’s my take on which half of them would have made the dance.

Arrival

Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi drama tied Moonlight for the second most nods at 8. In addition to BP, the director and adapted screenplay were nominated along with tech mentions in Sound Editing (where it won), Sound Mixing, Production Design, Cinematography, and Editing. On the flip side, star Amy Adams was omitted in Best Actress. It stands as one of the most surprising acting snubs of the past decade.