We have reached 2021 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
Beyond the headlines made during the 94th Academy Awards by Will Smith and Chris Rock, the other story was a little movie called CODA. The family drama from Apple TV built momentum beginning at the Sundance Film Festival early in the year. It culminated in a 3/3 performance on Oscar night – winning Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur). We can assume it would’ve made the final cut.
As for the other nine, let’s take a deeper dive:
Belfast
Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age drama picked up other key nods in Director, Supporting Actress (Judi Dench), Supporting Actor (Ciaran Hinds), Original Song, and Sound. It didn’t emerge victorious in any, but its sole win came in Original Screenplay in a tight contest with Licorice Pizza.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The seven nominations were tied for third most and the screenplay trophy pushes it over.
Don’t Look Up
Adam McKay’s political satire was a streaming hit for Netflix with a megawatt all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep. Even with the Power of the Meryl, it received just three other mentions besides Picture in Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing (going 0 for 4).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Critics were divided and Netflix likely would’ve thrown all their campaign muscle behind The Power of the Dog if the count was only five.
Drive My Car
Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour Japanese drama easily won the International Feature Film race, but it also picked up other nods in Director and Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but you could argue otherwise. I left it off due to the power of the others and the fact that foreign directors often get nominated without their films making the BP cut.
Dune
Denis Villeneuve was shockingly omitted from the Best Director derby. However, the sci-fi epic got the second most nominations at 10. It won a ceremony high 6 with Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. The other nods were Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The Villeneuve snub causes some doubt, but the sheer amount of victories makes the inclusion likely.
King Richard
Will Smith infamously had the true-life sports drama’s sole win in Actor and it was also nominated in Supporting Actress (Aunjanue Ellis), Original Screenplay, Original Song, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Yet this is another one that was a very close call. Once again, I just couldn’t take out some upcoming entries.
Licorice Pizza
Paul Thomas Anderson’s coming-of-age dramedy also saw its maker nominated in Director and Original Screenplay. It went 0 for 3.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. That performance is a low showing for PTA’s pic and this was fairly easy to leave out of the ultimate quintet.
Nightmare Alley
Guillermo del Toro’s noirish thriller received three additional tech nods (losing all) in Cinematography, Costume Design, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. This was (by a considerable margin) the easiest to leave off since it was blanked in all other major races like directing and screenplay and any acting mentions.
The Power of the Dog
Jane Campion’s direction is responsible for the Netflix Western’s one win. The nom count was an even better than expected 12 that included Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst), Supporting Actor (Kodi Smit-McPhee and Jesse Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, even though that 1/12 count is underwhelming to be kind. That’s still the most nods and Campion winning director seals it.
West Side Story
Steven Spielberg’s musical remake had its only win for Ariana DeBose (doing her thing in Supporting Actress). Five additional noms came for Mr. Spielberg, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I’ll admit this is a tough one and you could put Drive My Car or King Richard in its place. My gut says The Power of the Spielberg gives it a minor advantage.
That means my final 2021 five is:
Belfast
CODA
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
2022 is next! And then, I’m switching it up. From 2008 and working backwards, I’ll do the inverse of these posts. For those years, I’ll speculate on what an expanded lineup of 10 might look like.
If you missed my entries for 2009-20, have no fear! They’re here:
This blogger’s first take on the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Director. If you didn’t catch my early glimpses for the acting races, you can find them linked at the bottom.
When I made my initial projections for the recently aired 95th Oscars back in April 2022, it correctly identified one of the eventual nominees: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. The eventual winners – the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once – were mentioned in Other Possibilities.
I’ll have Best Picture up later this evening!
TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR
In addition to the SAG Awards announcing their nominees on Wednesday, we also have the Director Guild of America (DGA) revealing its five contenders for Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film.
This is a race that usually matches the Academy’s eventual 5 nominees with 80% accuracy. In the past decade, there’s been a 4 for 5 correlation in 8 of those years. There hasn’t been a 5 for 5 match since 2009.
Even though BAFTA shockingly left Steven Spielberg off its shortlist last week, he should make the cut here for The Fabelmans. It would also be quite unexpected for Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to miss for Everything Everywhere All at Once.
After that, it gets interesting. I do believe James Cameron is recognized for Avatar: The Way of Water. The DGA has recently named pics in the sci-fi genre that the Academy surprisingly ignored. Recent examples are Ridley Scott (The Martian) and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).
On the flip side, the DGA has left off foreign filmmakers that the Academy does recognize. This includes Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) in the preceding two cycles. That could make the odds longer here for Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), or S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) than at the Oscars.
My hunch is that the trio of Todd Field (Tár), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) are angling for the final two slots with Sarah Polley (Women Talking) as a potential spoiler. I’ve got Field in my Academy quintet right now but missing here.
Denis Villeneuve’s Dune arrives nearly three decades after David Lynch’s oft criticized version of Frank Herbert’s mid 60s sci-fi novel. It is source material that I’m frankly not familiar with so take that for what it’s worth. With the director of Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 at the controls, this is a technically masterful and consistently stunning looking experience. I also must admit that I didn’t get swept up in it no matter how amazing the desert landscapes appear (and do they ever).
Set 10,000 years in the future, the dense plot (as in often hard to follow) introduces us to the royal family of Caladan. Duke Leto (Oscar Isaac) is the leader of House Atreides, a land with a plentiful supply of water and bagpipes. His concubine is Lady Jessica (Rebecca Ferguson) who possesses the powers of Bene Gesserit, a sisterhood of mystical beings thought to bear children with God-like abilities. Their offspring is Paul (Timothee Chalamet). One problem: the Lady was supposed to have a girl who eventually delivers this story’s version of The One, but she skipped a step.
The Atreides are ordered by Empirical decree to take over Arrakis, a planet with hardly any water (I’m uncertain about bagpipes). However, it is the only land with spice and that substances serves many purposes. First, it gets you high and gives one visions that might play into the plot later. Most importantly, it fuels interstellar travel and is therefore an extraordinarily valuable commodity. It’s what Gollum would be droning on endlessly about if this were another epic adventure. House Harkonnen and their rotund ruler (Stellan Skarsgard), the current Arrakis deed holders, are not going to give up those property rights without a fight.
We sense where all this is heading due to Paul’s visions of Chani (Zendaya). She’s a native of Arrakis and their citizens called the Fremen have learned to use their planet’s sandy and almost unlivable terrain to their advantage. They will need to accept Paul as their captain and that development… will or won’t happen in part two. Yes, part one is a subtitle here. Like some Marvel products that preceded this, you may find yourself realizing that not a lot really happens in this origin tale by the time two and a half hours has lapsed.
I recognize this may sound like sacrilege to the book’s devotees. There is plenty to praise in this immensely gifted director’s adaptation. The cast is uniformly top notch from Chalamet on down (FYI – Zendaya is a part II kinda thing because her participation is limited). Ferguson is perhaps the standout in a sprawling ensemble that includes Josh Brolin (as a trusted Atreides warrior), Javier Bardem (as a Fremen warrior), and Charlotte Rampling as a Reverend Mother of the Bene Gesserit.
Dune worshipers forgive me. While I spent time marveling at the look and anticipating the unearthing of giant sandworms, I would put this behind Arrival and the Blade Runner follow-up without hesitation. Saying it feels like half a movie is easy criticism. That doesn’t mean it’s not true. It is tempting to recommend Dune based on spectacular work of composer Hans Zimmer and cinematographer Greig Fraser and the sound and visual effects artists. Yet I often found myself a bit shocked by my lack of awe in the story itself.
The 27th Critics Choice Awards air this Sunday evening and they’re another often reliable indicator for who and what may win on Oscar night. As I have with SAG and the Golden Globes, I am giving you my winner predictions along with the runner-up pick.
Let’s get to it and I’ll have a recap up either Sunday evening or Monday!
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Predicted Winner:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Predicted Winner:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Actor
Nominees:
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Predicted Winner:
Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Predicted Winner:
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Predicted Winner:
Licorice Pizza
Runner-Up:
Belfast
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Predicted Winner:
Encanto
Runner-Up:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Comedy
Nominees:
Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar
Don’t Look Up
Free Guy
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Predicted Winner:
The French Dispatch
Runner-Up:
Licorice Pizza
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
A Hero
The Worst Person in the World
Predicted Winner:
Drive My Car
Runner-Up:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Young Actor/Actress
Nominees:
Jude Hill, Belfast
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Emilia Jones, CODA
Woody Norman, C’Mon C’Mon
Saniyya Sidney, King Richard
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Emilia Jones, CODA
Best Acting Ensemble
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
The Harder They Fall
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Belfast
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Cruella
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Editing
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Predicted Winner:
House of Gucci
Runner-Up:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Predicted Winner:
Nightmare Alley
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Song
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Predicted Winner:
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
Runner-Up:
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Winner:
Dune
Runner-Up:
No Time to Die
That equates to the following pictures garnering these numbers for wins:
6 Wins
The Power of the Dog
3 Wins
Dune
2 Wins
West Side Story
1 Win
Cruella, Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Encanto, The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, Spencer
Denis Villeneuve’s Dune brings us to the halfway point of my ten Case Of posts for the Best Picture contenders. If you missed the first four, you can access them here:
If the Academy’s voters are looking to honor the nominee that garnered the highest box office returns, they can do so here as the sci-fi epic made $107 million domestically while being simultaneously available on HBO Max. Dune stands as the second most nominated film of 2021 with 10 mentions including Adapted Screenplay and a number of tech nods that it’s expected to win.
The Case Against Dune:
Many anticipated that this would garner the most mentions on Oscar nomination morning, but it fell short by two to The Power of the Dog. In doing so, Dune missed a major race when Villeneuve surprisingly failed to make the director cut. Quite simply, it’s hard to imagine this taking the big prize without its filmmaker being acknowledged.
The Verdict:
Dune should have no trouble winning some Oscars next month. Sound and Visual Effects are likely in the bag and Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design are all feasible. Picture seems out of reach and voters will have another chance to honor it (and its director) with the forthcoming sequel.
And at last… they’re out! After months of speculating on the blog (starting all the way back with my initial predictions in August), the Oscar nominations for the 94th Academy Awards were unveiled early this morning.
As always, there’s shocking omissions and surprising additions. There’s races that went as planned. And (for me at least) there’s always that one tricky category where I end up going 2/5. This year it was Documentary Feature which is notoriously tough to figure out. On the flip side, I projected 4 out of the 20 feature film competitions with 5/5 accuracy. All in all – I went 82 for 105 on the picks.
Some initial thoughts before I break it down race by race. The Power of the Dog was easily the winner of the morning with 12 nods (even more than anticipated). It led all nominees with Dune second (10).
Other movies that either met or exceeded expectations: Drive My Car, King Richard, and Nightmare Alley (which was the only somewhat surprising BP addition). For others, it was more of a mixed bag. Belfast garnered 7 mentions but came up short in key tech indicators like Cinematography and Editing. The same can be said for Licorice Pizza. Seven was also the number for West Side Story, but it missed screenplay. Being the Ricardos got 3 acting nods but no Picture or screenplay. And even Dune, with the 10 nods, somehow missed a director nomination for Denis Villeneuve.
Then there’s House of Gucci, which showed up only in Makeup and Hairstyling. No Jared Leto (I predicted he’d be left off), but no Lady Gaga in Actress was perhaps the shocker of the day.
Let’s get into it and I’ll offer my initial take on what/who could win (my final predictions will come shortly before the March 27th show).
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Commentary: My one miss was Alley coming in over Being the Ricardos. Make no mistake. With its 12 mentions, The Power of the Dog is undoubtedly the frontrunner. Yes, the Twitterverse will offer alternate theories. Could Drive My Car‘s impressive haul give us our second foreign BP winner in three years? Could Belfast or West Side Story spoil? I doubt it.
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Hamaguchi getting in wasn’t unforeseen. If so, I figured he’d do so over Anderson, Branagh, or Spielberg and certainly not Villeneuve. That’s what happened. Campion made history today by becoming the first female nominee to get a second nomination. All signs point to her becoming the third (after Kathryn Bigelow and Chloe Zhao) to win.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: We now arrive at the biggest head scratcher of the major categories. Gaga’s aforementioned omission is truly unexpected (Cruz takes her slot). The precursors (BAFTA, Globes, SAG) have been all over the map and there’s no obvious favorite. I would say Cruz doesn’t stand much of a chance, but the other four do (it’s a lot like last year’s Actress derby). This is also the first time since 2005 where no Actress hopeful has their film in contention for Best Picture. Kidman’s Globe win could help and we’ll see what SAG does, but this is wide open.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: That’s more like it! Smith (especially after Richard‘s good morning) is out ahead though I could see Cumberbatch definitely threatening after Dog‘s very good morning. Fun tidbit: not since 1980 has the Best Actor race consisted entirely of previous nominees until today.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: This was the first race announced today and the jaws of prognosticators dropped immediately. Buckley and (especially) Dench were not anticipated by most. I didn’t even have either as my runner-up or second alternate. They displace Ruth Negga (Passing) and Dench’s costar Caitriona Balfe. While the lineup is different than we thought, the frontrunner (DeBose) remains the same with Dunst (getting her first nod) as a possible upset pick.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Simmons in over Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza. Mr. Cooper has two movies contending for BP but no singling out to show for it. Smit-McPhee may be out in front but a Kotsur victory is feasible.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Worst Person is the surprise. I didn’t predict Richard though its inclusion was expected. They’re in over Ricardos and Parallel Mothers (which was admittedly a bit of an upset pick from me). This should be between Belfast and Pizza and it may represent the best opportunity for either to grab a statue.
Tidbit: since 2001, there was at least one screenplay contender where it served as its only nomination. Until today.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: Let’s not overcomplicate it when we don’t need to. Power is far and away the leader in this pack.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: This went as planned. There are three Disney products in the group, but the other two (Flee, Mitchells) are potential roadblocks to Encanto winning. Yet betting against Disney usually isn’t wise in this one and Encanto will probably take it.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: I’m gonna go ahead and say Lunana is the first Oscar contender with Yak in its title without checking (correct me if wrong). It surprisingly gets in (along with far less surprising The Hand of God) over A Hero and Playground. This one’s simple: anything other than Car would be a massive upset.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s that blasted 2 for 5 race! Ascension, Attica, and Fire are up over my selections of Faye Dayi, Procession, and The Rescue (its omission is stunning considering it was a contender to win).
Flee made history by becoming the first film to be nominated for Animated Feature, International Feature Film, and here. This race probably marks its best chance to win, but I wouldn’t sleep on Summer of Soul.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Alley over Belfast. Get used to hearing this with the tech categories – Dune might be out in front. Dog could threaten.
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano‘s sole nod comes here. I had House of Gucci instead. Dune can’t win all the techs and Cruella could take this.
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Richard and Boom! over Belfast and Licorice Pizza. The Belfast omission is particularly notable as BP victors nearly always are nominated here. This could be more Dune gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with Suicide Squad over Coming 2 America. Despite its bad performance this morning, Gucci could win this. Or it might just go to Dune.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with The French Dispatch (which goose egged) over Mothers. As for the winner (get ready for it) – expect Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Maybe the surprise here shouldn’t be with “Somehow You Do” over “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up. After all, this marks Diane Warren’s 13th nomination and sixth in the last seven years. She’s never won and won’t this time.
“Be Alive” from Beyonce or “Oruguitas” could get it, but “No Time to Die” from Billie Eilish could be the third Bond theme in a row to be celebrated.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Another category where I said French Dispatch and missed. Power gets in instead. While Dune is strong, I wouldn’t be startled to see this as the lone victory for Nightmare Alley.
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: You should hear Dune‘s name called.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Free Guy and Spidey over The Matrix Resurrections and Godzilla vs. Kong. As for the winner: See Best Sound.
Here’s the overall nominations break down:
12 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
10 Nominations
Dune
7 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
6 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Encanto, Flee, Licorice Pizza, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Parallel Mothers, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
1 Nomination
Ascension, Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Four Good Days, Free Guy, The Hand of God, House of Gucci, Luca, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire
Starting very shortly, you can peruse my Case Of posts in which I write individualized posts for all the contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting races!
This is it! After months of speculation that began all the way back in a time known as August 2021, the guesswork grinds to a halt. It’s time for my FINAL Oscar predictions for the 94th Academy Awards. Nominations are out Tuesday (February 8th) with the big show airing March 27th.
I’ve penned thousands of words discussing the various feature film categories that will be revealed. The speculation ends today. For each race, I will give you my picks along with a runner-up and a second alternate. On Tuesday, I’ll have reaction up with my thoughts and, of course, how I did with the prognostications. I’m also giving you how I fared in the previous two years with each category.
So… pencils down. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
2019 Performance: 9/9
2020 Performance: 7/9
***There are 10 fixed nominees now***
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Tick, Tick… Boom!
Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Director
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Runner-Up: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Second Alternate: Sian Heder, CODA
Best Actress
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Runner-Up: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Best Actor
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 5/5
Predicted Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Second Alternate: Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Best Supporting Actress
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Runner-Up: Ann Dowd, Mass
Second Alternate: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Supporting Actor
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Second Alternate: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Best Original Screenplay
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Parallel Mothers
Runner-Up: King Richard
Second Alternate: C’Mon C’Mon
Best Adapted Screenplay
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: Passing
Best Animated Feature
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Runner-Up: Belle
Second Alternate: Sing 2
Best International Feature Film
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 2/5
Predicted Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
A Hero
Playground
The Worst Person in the World
Runner-Up: The Hand of God
Second Alternate: Prayers for the Stolen
Best Documentary Feature
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Faya Dayi
Flee
Procession
The Rescue
Summer of Soul
Runner-Up: The First Wave
Second Alternate: Ascension
Best Cinematography
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Nightmare Alley
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Costume Design
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Cyrano
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Film Editing
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: West Side Story
Second Alternate: King Richard
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Suicide Squad
Runner-Up: Coming 2 America
Second Alternate: Cyrano
Best Original Score
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers
Second Alternate: Spencer
Best Original Song
2019 Performance: 3/5
2020 Performance: 4/5
Predicted Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Runner-Up: “Here I Am” from Respect
Second Alternate: “Beyond the Shore” from CODA
Best Production Design
2019 Performance: 4/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Runner-Up: Belfast
Second Alternate: Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
2020 Performance: 5/5
***Sound races were split into Editing and Mixing prior to 2020
Predicted Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Runner-Up: A Quiet Place Part II
Second Alternate: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Visual Effects
2019 Performance: 5/5
2020 Performance: 3/5
Predicted Nominees:
Dune
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Runner-Up: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Second Alternate: Ghostbusters: Afterlife
And this means my FINAL tally of total nominations for these films are as follows:
11 Nominations
Dune, The Power of the Dog
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
West Side Story
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, King Richard
3 Nominations
CODA, Drive My Car, Encanto, Flee, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley
1 Nomination
Faya Dayi, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Parallel Mothers, Passing, Playground, Procession, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
Come Tuesday – visit the blog for reaction to the nominations!
For the second year in a row, the British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs) showed its unpredictable nature with some shocking omissions and unexpected inclusions. The last major precursor before Oscar nominations are unveiled Tuesday, I went 63 of 99 when it comes to races with a correlation to the Academy’s competitions. Truth be told – it coulda been worse considering the surprises we witnessed today.
Let’s break them down one by one with some commentary, shall we?
Film
Nominees: Belfast, Don’t Look Up, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: The BAFTAs delivered a great haul for Pizza. It and Don’t Look Up got in over my picks of The Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story (which both underwhelmed). Gut reaction says Power is in the lead.
Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Audrey Diwan (Happening), Julia Ducournau (Titane), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Aleem Khan (After Love)
How I Did: 4/6
Commentary: Wow – no Kenneth Branagh for Belfast or Denis Villeneuve for Dune! They miss with Anderson and Diwan taking the spots. Like with Film, Campion could be out in front.
Leading Actress
Nominees: Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Joanna Scanlan (After Love), Tessa Thompson (Passing)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: Surprises galore here! No Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos or Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. I predicted both along with Claire Rushbrook for Ali & Ava. In their slots are Haim (continuing the Licorice love), Jones, and Thompson. I would also note no Kristen Stewart in Spencer after her SAG snub.
Now here’s an interesting stat – since 2013, the BAFTA Leading Actress recipient has matched the Oscar winner. So… are Kidman and Colman in trouble? Could Gaga be on her way to a gold statue? Does this show Haim’s potential strength at getting an Academy mention? Questions abound, but I know one thing – this year’s Actress race is as intriguing as last year’s.
Leading Actor
Nominees: Adeel Akhtar (Ali & Ava), Mahershala Ali (Swan Song), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up), Stephen Graham (Boiling Point), Will Smith (King Richard)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: Smith’s inclusion here (which I didn’t project) just might solidify him as the Oscar frontrunner (with Cumberbatch pretty close behind). Academy hopefuls Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) and Denzel Washington (Macbeth) were left out as was Daniel Craig in his swan song as Bond in No Time to Die. In their place – Smith, Ali (following up on his Globe nominated turn), and DiCaprio.
Side note – somehow, Denzel has never been nominated for a BAFTA.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Ann Dowd (Mass), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), Ruth Negga (Passing)
How I Did: 4/6
Commentary: Dowd finally shows up! I must say – no huge shockers here as she and Ellis made it over Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and Kathryn Hunter (Macbeth). We’ll see if DeBose’s potential sweep continues here.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mike Faist (West Side Story), Ciaran Hinds (Belfast), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Woody Norman (C’Mon C’Mon), Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
How I Did: 3/6
Commentary: There was a double dose of Dog love for Plemons (who I didn’t predict) and Smit-McPhee (who I did and he could certainly win). I also went with Faist’s costar David Alvarez instead in a last minute switch that I now regret. And young Norman is responsible for the only nod for C’Mon C’Mon. I also went with Benicio del Toro for The French Dispatch and Jamie Dornan in Belfast. At this point, an Oscar nod for Dornan seems like a reach. Also worth noting is that, despite Pizza over performing, no Bradley Cooper.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Here’s a list that may absolutely match the Oscar one. I said After Love over Richard (which had a solid day). Like with the Academy, this might be a Belfast v. Pizza showdown and considering how well the latter did, I might lean that way.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: CODA, Drive My Car, Dune, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with West Side Story over Dune. This is Power‘s to lose.
Animated Film
Nominees: Encanto, Flee, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines
How I Did: 3/4
Commentary: Rather predictable list though I said Ron’s Gone Wrong instead of Luca.
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: Drive My Car, The Hand of God, Parallel Mothers, Petite Maman, The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: No Flee here or Titane with God and Mothers in. Drive My Car is the favorite.
Documentary
Nominees: Becoming Cousteau, Cow, Flee, The Rescue, Summer of Soul
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Summer of Soul did well when factoring in the surprise Editing nod. It made it along with Cousteau over my picks of The Sparks Brothers and The Velvet Underground.
Cinematography
Nominees: Dune, Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Well – Macbeth got something (!) Only miss here was going with Belfast instead of Alley.
Costume Design
Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s always a pesky 2/5 race where I just whiff. I got Cyrano and Dune right but the others popped up over House of Gucci, Last Night in Soho, and West Side Story. I didn’t predict it, but Cruella could be the main competition for Dune.
Editing
Nominees: Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, No Time to Die, Summer of Soul
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Soul‘s aforementioned placement is unexpected – could it possibly follow suit with the Academy? Also didn’t project Pizza. They are in over Last Night in Soho and (you guessed it) West Side Story.
Makeup and Hair
Nominees: Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano over The Electrical Life of Louis Wain. Honestly, other than Cyrano, I think any of the hopefuls could take this.
Original Score
Nominees: Being the Ricardos, Don’t Look Up, Dune, The French Dispatch, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Ricardos and Don’t Look Up in; The Green Knight and Spencer out. Probably a showdown of Dune v. Dog.
Production Design
Nominees: Cyrano, Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Here’s a rare category where I incorrectly had West Side missing. It’s in, along with Cyrano (which had a decent haul with tech races) over Belfast and Macbeth.
Sound
Nominees: Dune, Last Night in Soho, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place Part II, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Place over Belfast. Expect Dune to reign supreme.
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: Dune, Free Guy, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, The Matrix Resurrections, No Time to Die
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Should be another victory for Dune as Free Guy and Ghostbusters made it over my selections of The King’s Man and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings.
And there’s your recap. As a reminder, my FINAL Oscar predictions (which I’m currently beating myself up over) will be posted tomorrow! Stay tuned…
The last major precursor nominations before Tuesday’s Oscar nods come out tomorrow and it’s the British Academy Film Awards or BAFTAs. Let’s discuss them a bit, shall we? The BAFTAs can be a confusing branch to figure out.
For starters, the number of nominees in each category is a tad puzzling. Best Film has five as do the tech races and screenplay derbies. Director and the acting competitions contain 6 while Animated Film is 4. However, Documentary and “Film Not in the English Language” is 5. Got that?
While past years have matched the Oscars fairly closely in the big categories, 2020 was an exception. While 4 of the 5 Best Film contenders ended up nabbing BP mentions from the Academy, it was just 3 of the directors. For Best Actor, it was also 3 but in Best Actress only two. Same goes for Supporting – 3 in Actor, 2 in Actress.
In other words, projecting the BAFTAs is a major crapshoot but I’ll try. Since it’s British voters, titles such as the BBC’s After Love are expected to perform well in some of the major races.
Another major note – I am only forecasting competitions where there’s a direct correlation to the Academy. Therefore I’m not weighing in on Best British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer, or Casting.
For each race, I’ll give you my picks (and I triple checked the numbers) and an alternate. A recap on how I did and my general thoughts are up tomorrow and my final Oscar predictions will be up Friday!
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