Sundance premiered Theater Camp, the feature-length version of a 2020 short film of the same name. The comedy comes from directors Molly Gordon (who can be seen as Jonah Hill’s sibling in this weekend’s You People on Netflix) and Nick Lieberman. They cowrote the screenplay with Ben Platt (originator of the title role of Dear Evan Hansen on Broadway) and Noah Galvin (who would later play Hansen onstage). Gordon, Platt, and Galvin are included in the cast along with Jimmy Tatro, Patti Harrison, Ayo Edebiri, Amy Sedaris, and Alan Kim.
Set at an upstate New York camp for aspiring musically inclined stage stars, critics are mostly saying Theater has limited but charming appeal. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at a decent 80%. Searchlight believes the breakout potential is enough that they bought it for $8 million and plan a theatrical distribution later this year.
Perhaps some Academy voters went to the kind of camp that’s both celebrated and lampooned here. I don’t believe the reviews are there for it to make any sort of Oscar push. Perhaps the Golden Globes will take a gander for Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy, but even that could be a reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s a big day for us Oscar prognosticators as the shortlists were revealed this afternoon. For the uninitiated, there are seven feature film races where the Academy releases contenders ranging from 10-15 nominees. For Original Score, Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature – we are given 15 hopefuls. In Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects – the list is dwindled to 10.
Let’s walk thru them one by one and I’ll talk about some surprises and omissions!
Best Original Score
The 15 Contenders:
Being the Ricardos
Candyman
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
The French Dispatch
The Green Knight
The Harder They Fall
King Richard
The Last Duel
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:Â
Based on my latest Oscar forecast from December 15th, my five predicted nominees (Dune, The Power of the Dog, Spencer, Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth) all made the cut. So did my #7 (The French Dispatch), #9 (Being the Ricardos), and #10 (King Richard). The two omissions from my top 10: (6) Nightmare Alley and (8) Cyrano.
The biggest surprise might be the inclusion of Candyman.Â
Best Original Song
The 15 Contenders:
“So May We Start” from Annette
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road
“Automatic Woman” from Bruised
“Dream Girl” from Cinderella
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen
“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Here I Am” from Respect
“Your Song Saved My Life” from Sing 2
Commentary:
My only top 10 ditty from 12/15 not on this list is “Believe” from The Rescue. I will note that “Every Letter” from Cyrano just dropped from my 10 last week and that turned out to be the correct call. This race still likely boils down to Beyonce (“Be Alive”) vs. Billie (“No Time to Die”).
Best Makeup and HairstylingÂ
The 10 Contenders:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die
The Suicide Squad
West Side Story
Commentary:
A race where Cyrano isn’t left out! Last week I had Spencer in fifth position and it falls out. Same goes for Being the Ricardos (7) and The Last Duel (10). This is a competition that could go for Dune, Gucci, or Tammy as I see it.
Best Sound
The 10 Contenders:
Belfast
Dune
Last Night in Soho
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
A Quiet Place Part II
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Tick Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Commentary:
My predicted five from six days ago (Dune, West Side Story, Belfast, No Time to Die, Tick Tick… Boom!) are intact as are my #6 (Matrix) and #9 (A Quiet Place Part II). Not so for the films I had at 7, 8 and 10: Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel). Fresh off its gargantuan box office, the Spidey mention shows potential strength at making the shorter shortlist.
Best Visual Effects
The 10 Contenders:
Black Widow
Dune
Eternals
Free Guy
Ghostbusters:Â AfterlifeÂ
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Commentary:
All 4 MCU movies from 2021 make it in as do three Warner Bros spectacles  (Dune, Matrix, Godzilla). I had Don’t Look Up placed fourth but it falls out. So does Finch which I rated seventh. This certainly increases the chances for Marvel to have at least two in the final five, but there’s Dune and then everything else in this race.
Best Documentary Feature
The 15 Contenders:
Ascension
Attica
Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry
Faya Dayi
The First Wave
Flee
In the Same Breath
Julia
President
Procession
The Rescue
Simple As Water
Summer of Soul
The Velvet Underground
Writing with Fire
Commentary:
It’s tough luck for my #9 (The Lost Leonardo) and #10 (Becoming Cousteau) as this fascinating race plays out between The Rescue, Flee, and Summer of Soul.Â
Best International Feature Film
The 15 Contenders:
Compartment No. 6
Drive My Car
Flee
The Good Boss
Great FreedomÂ
The Hand of God
A Hero
Hive
I’m Your Man
Lamb
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
Playground
Plaza Catedral
Prayers for the Stolen
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
A Lamb and a Yak walk into the international competition, but the shocker of the day might be France’s Titane (which I had it 7th) not being mentioned. Same goes for #9 Memoria. This could be the category where Flee wins, but A Hero has been my #1. When I update my projections tomorrow, don’t be surprised if the rising Drive My Car from Japan takes over the top spot.
I’ll have fresh estimates in ALL feature categories posted tomorrow!
***Blogger’s Update (12/07): As I was putting the finishing touches on this update, the Don’t Look Up review embargo ended and its RT score as of this writing is 58%. That means it’s falling out in multiple races including Best Picture. Tick Tick Boom! is the beneficiary in the big race. A Hero rises in Original Screenplay.
For quite some time, I’ve had a nagging feeling that an early year festival favorite might manage to make its way to the ten Best Picture nominees. That trio of pictures is CODA, Flee, and Mass. I have held off putting any in the final predicted ten, but that changes today with CODA. It’s a feel good entry that could get enough support to get in. By doing so, it knocks out Being the Ricardos. The Lucy and Desi tale from Aaron Sorkin had its official review embargo lift today and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 67%. The showbiz theme and Sorkin devotees could still sneak it in, but it drops from Picture and Original Screenplay for now. Nicole Kidman stays in Actress, but falls from 2nd to 4th place.
Other changes in the main races:
Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) is back in the Actress fold and I’ve finally taken out Jennifer Hudson for Respect.Â
Troy Kotsur gets the CODA bump in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Richard Jenkins (The Humans).
Ricardos being out of Original Screenplay helps out C’Mon C’Mon.Â
In Adapted Screenplay, it’s CODA in and Nightmare Alley out. I am continuing to keep Nightmare in the BP bunch yet it’s tenuous in 10th position.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)
8. CODA (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-4)
14. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
15. House of Gucci (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Daughter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
9. Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)
8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan HansenÂ
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belfast (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of GucciÂ
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-2)
10. King Richard (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Finch (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Free Guy (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nightmare Alley
And that shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
West Side Story
8 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
King Richard, Nightmare Alley
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick Tick Boom!
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, A Hero, The Lost Daughter
1 Nomination
Attica, Being the Ricardos, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
As December dawns, the story of my latest Oscar predictions is West Side Story. Steven Spielberg’s remake of the musical has been in my ten Best Picture nominees for some time. However, the solid buzz emanating from screenings gives it a bump from #8 to #4. Additionally, Spielberg is now in my five for Director and that takes out Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley.Â
Speaking of Alley, we will have a far better idea of its viability later today when it gets its first look from critics and the social embargo is lifted. It’s fair to say that Alley is the final major contender to be unveiled and that makes an even clearer picture will be available for my next round.
In other developments:
While my five Best Actress picks remain the same, Rachel Zegler’s performance in West Side Story jumps from 10th to 6th.
The five slot in Best Actor shifts once again from Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) to Peter Dinklage in Cyrano.Â
Rita Moreno’s work in West Side Story puts her in the five for the first time (and top ten for that matter). If my prediction comes true, she could join costar Ariana DeBose (who plays the role for which Moreno won her Oscar sixty years ago). It would also make her the oldest nominee in Academy history. Ann Dowd (Mass) falls out of the 5.
The wide open Supporting Actor derby sees Jamie Dornan (Belfast) in and Jason Isaacs (Mass) out.
King Richard returns to Original Screenplay over C’Mon C’Mon, which goes from 3 estimated nods in my previous post to zero.
West Side Story makes the cut for Adapted Screenplay to the detriment of The Humans.
Flee drops from the #1 spot in Animated Feature with Encanto in. Yet it rises to first in Documentary Feature over The Rescue.
You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (E)
4. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. CODA (PR: 12) (+1)
12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
15. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spencer
Flee
Mass
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Cyrano (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spencer (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (E)
10. King Richard (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Tick Tick… Boom!
The Matrix ResurrectionsÂ
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Free Guy (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Finch (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Suicide Squad
And that equates to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune
10 Nominations
Belfast
9 Nominations
West Side Story
8 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Spencer
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, Flee
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, The Lost Daughter
1 Nomination
Belle, Drive My Car, Encanto, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Humans, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
We actually had two weeks in a row of my Best Actor predictions staying the same after the five spot seemed to be constantly shifting. Not anymore as Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) makes his first appearance in the predicted hopefuls at the expense of Joaquin Phoenix in C’Mon C’Mon. That films also drops out of Original Screenplay in favor of Spencer.
The biggest change is in International Feature Film as France somewhat surprisingly picked Julia Ducournau’s Titane as their selection. That drops Happening from the race and vaults Titane to the five. I’m also putting in Drive My Car over The Hand of God.Â
A note – the 10 Best Picture nominees has stayed steady as of late. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that a Sundance selection from early this year (Mass, Flee, or CODA) will end up making the cut. I just can’t decide what to take out yet. We will know soon whether Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, or House of Gucci (the unscreened titles) are vulnerable.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. King Richard (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-2)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Flee (PR: 13) (-1)
15. CODA (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tender Bar
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Vivo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. 7 Prisoners (PR: 8) (E)
9. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Memoria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Happening
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Attica (PR: 4) (+1)
4. President (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Velvet Underground (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ailey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Costume DesignÂ
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Cruella (PR: 1) (-2)
4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of MacbethÂ
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. King Richard (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Cruella (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
West Side StoryÂ
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. King Richard (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (E)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Belfast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Time to Die (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
King Richard
Cyrano
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Eternals (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Finch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jungle Cruise
And that equates to the following number of nominations for these films:
9 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley
7 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, Spencer
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Don’t Look Up, Driver My Car, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, President, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
It is a week of fairly minor movement in the major categories for my Oscar predictions. Even the five spot in Best Actor (which seems to change each week) remained intact.
There is a switch in Actress with Jennifer Hudson (Respect) back in over Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth).
The biggest happenings occurred in International Feature Film as nations are continuing to announce their submissions or shortlists in that race. We learned that Spain has gone with The Good Boss instead of Parallel Mothers (a surprise) and that France did not shortlist Petite Maman (which I had in the 5 slot). It’s out in favor of Happening.Â
You can read all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mass (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Flee (PR: 12) (-1)
14. CODA (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thoms Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:Â
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smith-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of MacbethÂ
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Humans (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Luca (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4 (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Vivo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlotte
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Flee (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Happening (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. 7 Prisoners (PR: 10) (+2)
9. I’m Your Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Petite Maman
Parallel Mothers
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 6) (E)
7. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Julia (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The First Wave (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-2)
5. King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:Â
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Belfast (PR: 9) (+2)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Luca
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jungle Cruise (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following breakdown in terms of nominations for the pictures:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, King Richard, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Spencer
4 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Eternals, Don’t Look Up, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Happening, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the WorldÂ
Blogger’s Note (10/06): I have revised my No Time to Die prediction from $104.1 million down to $94.1 million, which would still set a COVID era record.
After the absolutely fantastic and record breaking performance of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, James Bond looks to set his own high mark this weekend with the 25th 007 adventure No Time to Die. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Daniel Craig’s fifth and final contribution to the storied franchise has been climbing up with my estimates. Early last week, I figured it would do $72.1 million (good for second in the series after the $88 million achieved by Skyfall). By Friday, I went with $84.1 million. Following what Tom Hardy’s superhero sequel did, I am now figuring this will be the first Bond feature to debut north of $100 million.
There are potential obstacles. It certainly has a longer runtime than Venom. We would be in new territory for this franchise with a gross that enormous. That said, no one foresaw the Venom follow-up hitting $10 million more than its predecessor. I also believe the hoopla surrounding Die being Craig’s swan song (and the solid reviews) will only help.
The original Venom fell 56% in its sophomore in October 2018 to $35 million. Competition this time around is steeper and I do believe a 60% or more dip is certainly possible (thought it could continue to confound expectations).
After a decent debut, The Addams Family 2 will be third and I’d look for a drop in the mid 40s range (similar to its predecessor from 2019). Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings should hold the 4 spot with The Many Saints of Newark (after a subpar showing) in the 5 position.
Here’s how I envision the chart playing out:
1. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $94.1 million
2. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. The Addams Family 2
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. The Many Saints of Newark
Predicted Gross: $1.8 million
Box Office Results (October 1-3)
I’m pretty sure the number $58.7 million is going to haunt me for awhile. That’s what I said Venom: Let There Be Carnage would gross out of the gate and, umm, I was a little low. As mentioned, the Tom Hardy sequel set a pandemic era best haul with a cool $90 million (topping the $80 million of part 1 and the COVID times best $80 million achieved by Black Widow). I think it’s safe to say get ready for part III as champagne corks are popping over at Sony.
The Addams Family 2Â couldn’t come close to the $30 million start of part 1, but it wasn’t expected to. The $17.3 million output is right in line with the best of expectations and slightly ahead of my $16.6 million projection.
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings was third with $6.1 million (I was higher at $7.6 million) for $206 million total. It’s the first pic to reach the double century milestone domestically since COVID.
Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark was a theatrical dud at just $4.6 million for fourth. I went considerably north of that with a $8.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as HBO hopes its Max subscribers stream it on their service.
Dear Evan Hansen tumbled badly in weekend 2 with $2.4 million. Again I was generous with $4.2 million. That’s a troubling 67% decline after a weak opening and the tally is $11 million.
My weekly Oscar predictions enters the month of October with no changes in my forecasted Picture and Director nominees. However, we do have movement in the acting derbies:
The five spot in Best Actor seems to change every Sunday. This time I’m swapping out Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley) for Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) once again.
In Actress, Jennifer Hudson (Respect) falls out in favor of Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter.Â
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) makes my Supporting Actress five for the first time at the expense of Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans).
My #1’s in the biggest competitions stay put with Belfast (Picture), Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog (Director), Kristen Stewart in Spencer (Actress), Will Smith in King Richard (Actor), Caitriona Balfe for Belfast (Supporting Actress), and Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza (Supporting Actor).
You can peruse all the activity for all the races below as I now have Belfast and Dune tied for garnering the most nods.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. King Richard (PR: 9) (+3)
7. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (-2)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (E)
12. Flee (PR: 12) (E)
13. CODA (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mass (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Humans
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (E)
9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Hand of God (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Humans (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. CODA (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Passing (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Luca (PR: 2) (E)
3. Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vivo (PR: 6) (E)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Charlotte (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Hand of God (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Petite Maman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Happening (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Drive My Car (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. 7 Prisoners (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
I’m Your Man
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Attica (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The First Wave (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Julia (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Sparks Brothers
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. No Time to Die (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cruella (PR: 4) (+2)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Belfast (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:Â
6. King Richard (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Spencer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Cruella (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
The French DispatchÂ
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-3)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Luca (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:Â
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belfast (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
House of GucciÂ
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (-4)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Eternals (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Free Guy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jungle Cruise (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these pictures gathering these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
7 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Annette, Attica, Belle, Cyrano, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Petite Maman, The Rescue, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
An October filled with potential heavy hitters begins Friday with the release of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Tom Hardy’s sequel to the 2018 comic book blockbuster. We also have spooky animated sequel The Addams Family 2 and Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
One thing seems certain: the September long reign of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings will cease with the arrival of Venom. I don’t envision it approaching the $80 million premiere achieved by its predecessor, but a high 50s forecast has it ruling the roost.
The two other newbies are also both available for home viewing (Addams for general rental, Newark on HBO Max). Addams should have no trouble snapping into the 2 spot. I’m projecting it earns a little more than half of the original’s $30 million.
Newark is a bit of a head scratcher. It stands to reason that many Sopranos devotees may have a Max membership and simply choose to view from their couch. I’ll say it gets close enough to double digits to just outdo Shang-Chi in its fifth frame (though it could be close).
After a muted debut, Dear Evan Hansen should drop in the low to mid 40s for a fifth place showing.
Here’s how I see the top 5:
1. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $58.7 million
2. The Addams Family 2
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
3. The Many Saints of Newark
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Dear Evan Hansen
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (September 24-26)
As anticipated, Shang-Chi made it a September clean sweep as it remained #1 for the fourth weekend and became the highest grossing domestic earner of the COVID era. With $13 million (I overshot at $14.9 million), the impressive take is $196 million.
The musical drama Dear Evan Hansen couldn’t get most critics or crowds on its side. It underperformed with $7.4 million, falling shy of my $8.6 million prediction. Its A- Cinemascore rating could mean small declines ahead, but fans of the Broadway show may have already rushed to view it (just not as many as the studio hoped).
Free Guy was third with $4.1 million compared to my $4.5 million projection and it’s up to $114 million.
Candyman placed fourth with $2.5 million. My guess? $2.5 million! Total is $56 million.
Clint Eastwood’s Cry Macho rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with just $2 million (I said $2.8 million) for $8 million overall.
Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings looks to make it a clean sweep at #1 for the month of September this weekend. The only competitor standing in its way is Dear Evan Hansen, the adaptation of the hit Broadway musical. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The fact that Hansen is garnering mixed reviews has me questioning whether it reaches double digits. I’m guessing no and that should put it in the runner-up position behind Rings, which may only drop in the low 30s.
Holdovers will populate the rest of the five as we await some potential October behemoths starting with Venom: Let There Be Carnage and continuing with No Time to Die, Halloween Kills, and Dune.
Until then, expect a rather quiet end to this month at multiplexes. Here’s how I envision the top five:
1. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million
2. Dear Evan Hansen
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
3. Free Guy
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
4. Cry Macho
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
5. Candyman
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
Box Office Results (September 17-19)
Shang-Chi steamrolled the rest of the weak competition in its third frame with $21.6 million. That’s just above my $20.1 million projection as the MCU juggernaut has amassed $176 million thus far with $200 million easily in its sights.
Free Guy dipped a scant 9% for second place in its sixth weekend with $5 million (I said $4.2 million). It has crossed the nine digit mark at $108 million.
The weekend’s top newcomer was Clint Eastwood’s Cry Macho with a ho-hum $4.4 million compared to my more generous $6.4 million estimate. Perhaps its intended older demographic opted to view it on HBO Max or, with its mixed reviews, not at all.
Candyman was fourth with $3.5 million, holding up better than my $2.6 million take. Total is $53 million.
Keeping with the horror theme, Malignant dropped 50% in its sophomore weekend with $2.7 million. That’s decent for its genre and it’s generated plenty of chatter (good and bad) that might have assisted in a curiosity factor. In two weeks, it’s made $9 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
That’s because Gerard Butler’s latest action thriller Copshop (despite a decent critical response) tanked with only $2.3 million in sixth. I went with $4.5 million.
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