August 1-3 Box Office Predictions

While The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to ride a wave of solid buzz to a second weekend atop the charts, three new releases will jockey for position. We have animated sequel The Bad Guys 2, comedy franchise reboot The Naked Gun, and the Dave Franco/Alison Brie body horror experience Together premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

The Bad Guys 2 Box Office Prediction

The Naked Gun Box Office Prediction

Together Box Office Prediction

Unless The Bad Guys 2 significantly underperforms or The Naked Gun really fires on all cylinders, it should manage a runner-up debut. I’m projecting high 20s which would improve on its 2022 predecessor’s mid-twenties rollout.

The Naked Gun is the biggest question mark of the weekend. While nostalgia could propel it to better than anticipated numbers, series unfamiliarity among younger patrons could hinder it. The range is wide as I see the floor in the teens with breakout potential putting it in second place. My lower 20s compromise means a commendable third place.

Together is at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, but horror fans have had plenty to feast on recently. My higher single digits estimate (and low double digits when factoring in its Wednesday bow) might put it in a face-off for fifth with the fifth weekend of Jurassic World Rebirth.

As mentioned, The Fantastic Four: First Steps should have no trouble staying in 1st. A mid to high 50s decline would be a bit more than the 53% experienced by Superman. Speaking of Supes, a fourth weekend decline close to 50% should mean fourth place.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $50.6 million

2. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $28.1 million

3. The Naked Gun

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Superman

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

5. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Together

Predicted Gross: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (July 25-27)

MCU’s 37th feature yielded its 37th #1 in a row as The Fantastic Four: First Steps made $117.6 million. It came close to Superman‘s start, falling short by just over $7 million. The critically appreciated reboot also couldn’t match my $122.4 million prediction. This is still a nice start while not getting to the rosiest of projections.

Superman dropped to second with $24.8 million, flying under my $28 million call. DC’s reboot (that word is popular with this summer’s crop) is nearing $300 million with $289 million in its coffers after three weeks.

Jurassic World Rebirth did cross that threshold with $13.2 million more in weekend #4, in line with my $13.6 million projection. The tally is $301 million.

Other holdovers were in close range with my guesstimates. F1 was fourth with $6.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for five-week earnings of $165 million.

Smurfs rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I went with $5.5 million). The animated, yes, reboot has brought in a sleepy $22 million in two weeks.

I Know What You Did Last Summer was sixth with $5.2 million (I said $5.3 million) for $23 million in its ten days of release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Jurassic World Rebirth achieved the third best debut of 2025, but Superman will attempt to do the same on Friday. James Gunn’s DC reboot of the iconic superhero franchise is the only new wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

Superman Box Office Prediction

In order to reach that third best mark, it’ll need to top Rebirth‘s low 90s start (more on that below). I’m projecting it’ll do so with plenty of room to spare while not reaching the heights of A Minecraft Movie or Lilo & Stitch. My mid to high 120s projection puts it just ahead of 2013’s Man of Steel which kicked off the previous iteration of the series.

As for Rebirth, I’m estimating a sophomore drop around 60%. That would it in line with the second weekend dips for Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and Jurassic World: Dominion. It is possible that the Superman competition and the ho-hum B Cinemascore could mean a more precipitous fall.

Holdovers F1, How to Train Your Dragon, and Elio should populate the rest of the top 5 and here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Superman

Predicted Gross: $128.6 million

2. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

3. F1

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. How to Train You Dragon

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. Elio

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (July 4-6)

Jurassic World Rebirth didn’t match the grosses of the three previous Jurassic World experiences. The dino adventure from Gareth Edwards did, however, manage to outdo most expectations including mine. It ruled over the holiday frame with $92 million from Friday to Sunday and $147.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That exceeds my respective forecasts of $80.8 million and $133 million. The long-running franchise is certainly not extinct and we can anticipate future sequels.

I miscalculated the staying power of F1 in its second lap. The racing drama was second with $25.7 million (a 55% ease). My $39.7 million estimate was obviously far more generous as I assumed word-of-mouth would carry it to a sturdier hold. The ten-day take is still a commendable $109 million and the overseas earnings are impressive.

How to Train Your Dragon was third with $11.2 million, a bit below my $12.9 million call. The live-action remake of the animated pic is up to $224 million in four weeks.

Disney/Pixar’s woes continued as the disappointing Elio was fourth with $5.7 million (I said $6.2 million). The three-week total is just $55 million.

28 Years Later rounded out the top five with $4.5 million. My prediction? $4.5 million! It’s made $60 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Superman Box Office Prediction

After bringing lesser known superheroes to box office dominance over a decade ago, James Gunn helms a reboot with perhaps the most iconic one via Superman starting July 11th. Warner Bros hopes the latest reboot of the Man of Steel saga flies high with David Corenswet donning the tights, Rachel Brosnahan playing Lois Lane, and Nicholas Hoult handling villainous duties as Lex Luthor. The supporting cast includes Edi Gathergi, Anthony Carrigan, Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Pruitt Taylor Vince, Neva Howell, Skyler Gisondo, and Wendell Pierce.

With a reported budget of $225 million, hopes are high for the summer tentpole. Gunn’s contribution as director is in addition to his duties as head of DC Studios. He was given the role after successfully handling three Guardians of the Galaxy features for the MCU. Counting Supergirl, this marks the 10th overall feature in the Supes series that began in 1978.

The best opening of the bunch is 2016’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice which kicked off with $166 million. #2 on the board is 2013’s last proper restart Man of Steel, which made $116 million in its inaugural weekend. Opening above Justice would be a massive victory for WB while debuting below Steel would be a disappointment.

I’m guessing the opening will be somewhere in between, but closer to Steel than Justice.

Superman opening weekend prediction: $128.6 million

Joker: Folie à Deux Box Office Prediction

Arriving five years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux dances into multiplexes on October 4th. Todd Phillips is back in the director’s chair with Joaquin Phoenix reprising his Oscar-winning role as Arthur Fleck. Lady Gaga’s Harley Quinn joins the musical mayhem alongside Catherine Keener, Brendan Gleeson, Zazie Beetz, Harry Lawtey, and Steve Coogan.

A half decade ago, Joker decimated expectations and set records with a $96 million opening on its way to $335 million domestically. Worldwide it amassed a haul of just over one billion bucks and garnered 11 Academy Awards nominations including Phoenix’s victory.

Like the original, Deux was first seen at the Venice Film Festival where reaction was decidedly mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 63% with 54 on Metacritic. Tracking suggests the sequel might not be the phenomenon of what we witnessed in 2019.

This is not expected to top the starting number of Joker. The question is how far it falls under. I suspect the so-so buzz could mean mid 50s and that’s a far cry from its predecessor.

Joker: Folie à Deux opening weekend prediction: $54.3 million

For my White Bird prediction, click here:

White Bird Box Office Prediction

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom hopes to rescue a troubling 2023 for the DCU when it opens December 22nd. Following up on the 2018 original, James Wan returns to direct with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Nicole Kidman costar.

With a reported budget of $215 million, the sequel needs solid domestic and overseas grosses to stay above water. That could be a challenge. The DCU has seen its share of flops this year including Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle.

The superhero’s first adventure five years ago ended up making an impressive $335 million stateside and $1.1 billion worldwide. It exceeded expectations, but Kingdom could fall under or just match them.

With Christmas on a Monday, I’m projecting a Friday to Monday number. Aquaman also came out on the big holiday weekend and Christmas was on a Tuesday. It took in $105 million in its first five days. This one might be fortunate to gross about half of that during its first four. I’m saying it won’t.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom opening weekend prediction: $42.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Migration prediction, click here:

Migration Box Office Prediction

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

Poor Things Box Office Prediction

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Blue Beetle

We will see if it struggles at the box office (which is expected) or exceeds projections, but Blue Beetle is topping expectations with its reviews. The 14th pic in the DC Universe currently has the 4th best Rotten Tomatoes score (81%) behind Wonder Woman, Shazam!, and The Suicide Squad. Ángel Manuel Soto directs the origin story with Xolo Maridueña as the title hero.

The MCU has racked up plenty of Visual Effects nods (though no victories) in addition to a BP nod for Black Panther five years ago. The DCU’s awards exposure has been far more limited. 2016’s Suicide Squad (not the stronger reviewed 2021 reboot The Suicide Squad) won for Makeup and Hairstyling. And that, my friends, is the extent of the DCU Oscar mentions.

It is worth noting that Visual Effects this year looks kind of thin. The unseen Dune: Part Two is probably the easy frontrunner while the other four slots are up for grabs. Beetle is getting some praise for its visuals and it likely stands a better chance than earlier ’23 DCU titles Shazam! Fury of the Gods and The Flash. If it can make the shortlist, maybe it gets in. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s doable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

August 18-20 Box Office Predictions

The DCEU hopes to halt a string of disappointments with Blue Beetle while Strays features the vocal canine stylings of Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx. Both pics will attempt to dethrone Barbie after four weeks on top. My individual prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Blue Beetle Box Office Prediction

Strays Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros and DC Comics have seen some underwhelming returns as of late with Black Adam, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and this summer’s mega flop The Flash. I don’t anticipate their fortunes will turn with Beetle. A best case scenario might be $30 million. My projection below $25 million does give it an ever so slight edge over Barbie (which I see falling in the mid 30s in its fifth outing). Yet I doubt WB/DC will be bragging.

As for Strays, the R-rated comedy might have benefitted from Ferrell and Foxx hitting the promotion circuit. With the SAG-AFTRA strike, that’s not an option. This genre has struggled in recent years anyway. My low to mid teens take puts it in third with a start similar to No Hard Feelings from a few weeks back.

Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

3. Strays

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

Box Office Results (August 11-13)

The summer phenomenon that is Barbenheimer returned to rule the charts with Barbie leading the way. In its fourth frame, it took in $33.8 million and that’s good for the ninth best fourth weekend in history. It’s also a touch higher than my $30.4 million forecast as it climbed to $526 million overall.

Oppenheimer returned to the runner-up slot with $18.8 million, on target with my $19 million take. Christopher Nolan’s epic was down only 35% and it’s up to $264 million.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rose from fourth to third with $15.2 million in its sophomore weekend. My prediction? $15.2 million! The acclaimed animated reboot has made $72 million.

As anticipated, Meg 2: The Trench suffered the heftiest drop of the holdovers (57%). Falling from second to fourth, the shark sequel grossed $12.8 million (I said $12 million) to bring its tally to $54 million. On the brighter side, it’s making a killing overseas like its 2018 predecessor.

Finally, The Last Voyage of the Demeter bombed in fifth with $6.5 million. Dubbed the “Dracula on a Boat” movie, audiences weren’t intrigued as it premiered on pace with my $6.4 million projection. With a B- Cinemascore, looking for it to sink even further next weekend.

And that does it for now, folks! Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite listening stream. Until next time…

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Review

For about the first hour of Shazam! Fury of the Gods, the stakes feel about as high as ordering a cheesesteak. I guess given the setting of Philly, maybe that’s something to be taken seriously. In the second half, the Phillies Stadium and I assume the Liberty Bell and Independence Hall are in danger of being decimated Independence Day style (or countless comic book action flicks).

With nearly the entire team returning including director David F. Sandberg, part 2 of the DC Comics property is unwieldy in its tone. The happy-go-lucky vibe of Shazam! and Zachary Levi’s enjoyable performance made it worth a view. It was also, to be fair, mostly forgettable and clearly worked better as a one-off.

You may recall (or not) that high schooler Billy Batson (Asher Angel) received the abilities of Shazam from Djimon Hounsou’s wizard in the 2019 original. This gave him the form of Levi’s red caped superhero yet it did not grant him wisdom beyond his teenage mind. Billy/Shazam still managed to outwit Mark Strong’s mad scientist with the help of his foster care siblings who were also soon bestowed with superhuman strengths. That includes brother Freddy Freeman (Jack Dylan Grazer as younger and Adam Brody in grownup spandex form) and he has a unique love interest

Anne (Rachel Zegler from West Side Story) is the new girl at school who looks amazing for her age. She’s actually Anthea, the centuries old daughter of Greek god Atlas. Her other sisters are Hespera (Helen Mirren) and Kalypso (Lucy Liu) and they are determined to reclaim powers taken from them ages ago. The Daughters of Atlas look far apart in age. Lucy Liu’s middle child is the Jan Brady of this bunch as she’s got the most up her sleeve. Young Anne (she’s only 6000 it’s revealed) is the sweet one who might not be bent on world destruction after all. And despite Mirren’s presence, the trio’s motivations aren’t particularly spellbinding. Once again we have a comic book adaptation where the villains are a weakness. The MCU and this DCEU are frequent offenders.

Four years ago, it was easier to root for Levi’s charming underdog of a title character. Gods just never clicks and average CG and action sequences keep the mediocrity intact. Standard wizardry is ordered in this follow-up. The result is that I could have done witout it (spelling error intended, Philadelphians).

** (out of four)

Best Picture 2019: The Final Five

We have reached 2019 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

In 2019, there were nine films vying for the prize. We know one thing for sure. Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite is in since it made history and became the first non-English language title to take Best Picture. It had a big night as it also won Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film.

There’s 8 others to consider. Only half make cut. Let’s get into it!

Ford v Ferrari

James Mangold’s 1960s set sports drama starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale had four total nominations and won 2 of them (Sound Editing and Film Editing). It wasn’t as fortunate in Picture or Sound Mixing.