As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our second entry in Best Actor and that’s Timothée Chalamet in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. If you missed my post on Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), it’s linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
Best Actor (2017, Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
The Case for Timothée Chalamet:
He’s essentially Hollywood’s IT leading man of the moment coming off Wonka, Dune: Part Two, and this biopic where he embodies Bob Dylan. Plenty of critics have hailed it as career best work and he’s landed precursor nods everywhere that matter (Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG). Chalamet would make Oscar history as the youngest victor in this competition.
The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) has already taken the Globe and Critics Choice as he seeks his second gold statue. Side note – he’s the current record holder for youngest Best Actor recipient for The Pianist (2002). Voters might figure Chalamet will have other opportunities as his career progresses.
The Verdict:
Chalamet is rightly seen as the runner-up. If he can snag SAG next weekend, this becomes a race. If it goes to Brody, the sweep is likely on.
My Case Of posts will continue with our next Supporting Actress contender and that’s Ariana Grande in Wicked…
The past few days for awards prognosticators like me have been eventful as the Venice and Toronto Film Festival have unveiled their lineups. Many of the expected 2024 heavy hitters have confirmed their premieres up north and across the ocean. That includes Conclave, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, The End, Hard Truths, and The Room Next Door to name a few. The NY Festival features Nickel Boys as its debut screening while Blitz will play London.
None of that information is particularly surprising. There was a rather unexpected development today courtesy of Fox Searchlight. The studio premiered the first look at their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and announced a release date of December. Directed by James Mangold, Timothée Chalamet stars as the legendary folk singer and the Dune/Wonka actor does his own crooning that you can hear in the trailer.
So will the picture be a golden ticket for Oscar attention? The December drop would indicate that Fox thinks so. Mangold is no stranger to this genre as he made 2005’s Walk the Line with Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash. He was nominated for Best Actor while Reese Witherspoon won Actress as June Carter Cash. Chalamet has been killing it lately at the box office, but his sole Academy nom was for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name (losing to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour). This is obviously a high profile turn and he joins an Actor competition that is quite unclear. Only one thing seems certain(ish) and that’s Colman Domingo making the final five for the acclaimed Sing Sing. Since I started my forecasts in May, there’s been two other performers I’ve had slotted in the quintet: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Daniel Craig (Queer). We’ll know soon enough if they are legit contenders. The other two spots have fluctuated between hopefuls like Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), and Glen Powell (Hit Man). And we can’t discount Mr. Phoenix for his second stint as Joker.
I do suspect that Chalamet will materialize in my top 5 for recognition when I update my predictions in the coming days. Where else could Unknown get in? Well, there’s Best Picture and Mangold’s direction. Walk the Line missed the cut for BP nearly 20 years ago. If there were 10 nominees back then like there is now, it probably would’ve gotten in. Mangold is a well-respected filmmaker with varied works including Cop Land, Girl, Interrupted, Logan, and Ford v Ferrari. While his co-scripting of Logan gave him an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s never received a directing mention.
Walk the Line did nab three other noms for Costume Design, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. All three of those (though Sound is now just Sound since it combined Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) could be Unknown inclusions. Adapted Screenplay is also a possibility.
As for the rest of the cast, we simply don’t know if Edward Norton as Pete Seeger, Elle Fanning as Sylvie Russo, or Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez are substantial enough for supporting recognitions. I would anticipate at least Fanning being listed as a possibility in my next update.
Fox Searchlight also has Nightbitch and A Real Pain as awards bait releases. The former is mostly being discussed for Amy Adams and an Actress nod (where I currently have her ranked #1). The latter is seen as a vehicle for a Kieran Culkin Supporting Actor try (where I have him ranked fourth). Both could be in the BP mix. However, on paper, A Complete Unknown might be Fox’s most electrifying prospect. This is, of course, a complete unknown until it screens. We do now that it’ll be in this cycle.
The Screen Actors Guild and the Director Guild announced their nominees today. Tomorrow it’s the Producers Guild time to reveal their 10 selections for outstanding films and 5 picks for animated feature.
This list often comes pretty darn close to mirroring the Academy’s eventual BP contenders. Over the past decade, here’s the matches:
2012 – 8/9
2013 – 8/9
2014 – 7/8
2015 – 7/8
2016 – 9/9
2017 – 7/9
2018 – 8/8
2019 – 9/9
2020 – 7/8
2021 – 8/10
That’s a pretty remarkable 78/87 over the past 10 ceremonies. We have seen some British or foreign pics make the Academy cut and not with PGA including last year with Drive My Car. Other recent examples include Amour, Darkest Hour, and The Father.
Some PGA nominees that Oscar voters didn’t honor include some pics with more of a popcorn flavor. They include Skyfall, Gone Girl, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out, and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Keeping that in mind, that’s why I have All Quiet on the Western Front on the outside looking in. It could certainly materialize, but gotta pay attention to history, eh? Same goes for Aftersun.
I could envision something like The Menu, Nope, or RRR appearing on the list though I’m not feeling bold enough to pick either. As with BP, I feel there’s a relatively safe 7: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick. In addition to the aforementioned hopefuls, the remaining three slots could be down to: Babylon (I feel it’s more possible here than with the Academy), Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (same), Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Whale, The Woman King, Women Talking.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking
Runner-Up: Babylon
As for the animated fare, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio should be way out front. For the other five possibilities, you just need to pick which one to eliminate.
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
On the eve of its premiere, the embargo for Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody finally lifted. For those not familiar, waiting until December 21st for critics to weigh in is not a good sign for awards possibilities. The biopic comes from Kasi Lemmons, who last directed Cynthia Erivo to a Best Actress nod for 2019’s Harriet. Then there’s the screenwriter Anthony McCarten. He’s a bit of an awards whisperer. His screenplays for 2014’s The Theory of Everything, 2017’s Darkest Hour, and 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody resulted in Best Actor victories for (respectively) Eddie Redmayne, Gary Oldman, and Rami Malek.
That’s why I was a tad surprised that Somebody was MIA at film festivals and that there were no early reviews to generate buzz. Now it makes more sense. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mere 41%. That said, some write-ups are singing the praises of Naomi Ackie as the iconic and troubled legend. I don’t think it would’ve been impossible for Ackie to make the five in Best Actress. At this juncture, only Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) have guaranteed spots in my opinion. Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans and Danielle Deadwyler for Till are probably in as well. The fifth slot could be Margot Robbie (Babylon), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), or a surprise.
It is probably too late for Ackie to be a factor. The Critics Choice and Globes skipped her and the Academy is unlikely to make her queen of the night. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (12/20): I am revising my prediction from $14.5 million to $11.5 million
Sony Pictures is hoping audiences wanna run to Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody when its drops December 23rd. The biopic of the legendary late singer stars Naomi Ackie as the title character with Stanley Tucci, Ashton Sanders, Tamara Tunie, Nafessa Williams, and Clarke Peters among the supporting cast. Kasi Lemmons (who last made the 2019 biopic Harriet) directs. Anthony McCarten wrote the screenplay. He’s no stranger to the genre having scripted The Theory of Everything, Darkest Hour and Bohemian Rhapsody.
Just last week, the film’s name was expanded to add “Whitney Houston” in front of one of her signature tunes. Perhaps Sony was nervous that awareness wasn’t high enough for the project. The marketing campaign doesn’t seem quite as robust as it could be. Its review embargo has yet to lift and Somebody skipped the autumn festival circuit. McCarten’s aforementioned works resulted in Oscar wins for stars Eddie Redmayne (Theory), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), and Rami Malek (Rhapsody). Ackie has yet to show up anywhere in the Academy’s precursors.
Even with the somewhat muted buzz, I still believe African-American and especially female viewers should turn out. This might result in a low teens beginning for the three-day gross.
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody opening weekend prediction: $11.5 million (REVISED)
For my Puss in Boots: The Last Wish prediction, click here:
The American Film Institute (AFI) said yes to Nope and nope to The Whale and Babylon today as they named their top ten movies of 2022. Jordan Peele’s sci-fi horror tale was perhaps the biggest surprise of the bunch.
The AFI list, in the previous decade, typically gives us seven of the eventual Best Picture contenders at the Oscars. In other words, they’re worth paying attention to. Coupled with Wednesday’s National Board of Review selections, there’s much to discuss. First, here’s the full AFI Ten:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Nope
She Said
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking
It’s key to remember that only U.S. made pictures are eligible. That means titles like All Quiet on the Western Front, Decision to Leave, RRR, and The Banshees of Inisherin were not in the mix. However, Banshees received a Special Award similar to what eventual Academy hopefuls like Roma and Parasite nabbed.
I went 7 for 10 on my predictions. I correctly named Avatar, Elvis, Everything Everywhere…, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. I didn’t name Nope, She Said, and Tár. Instead I picked Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. For She Said and Tár especially, these were important nods considering they missed NBR (as did Nope).
Let’s start with the films that made the AFI and NBR lists. I’m counting Banshees with its AFI Special Award shout-out and there’s six more: Avatar: The Way of Water, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King, and Women Talking. This is a list you want to be on when it comes to an Oscar BP nom.
In the previous five years, ten pictures that made AFI and NBR were ignored by the Academy. They are 2017’s The Florida Project, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, First Reformed, and Eighth Grade (all from 2018), Knives Out and Richard Jewell from 2019, Da 5 Bloods and Soul in 2020, and last year’s The Tragedy of Macbeth.
If history is our guide, at least one of the seven from 2022 will miss out. Looking at the list, The Woman King is probably most vulnerable. That said, I’ve yet it to include it in my Oscar ten and the stock is rising.
In the past five years, only five pics have missed AFI and NBR (including Special Awards) and received a BP nod from the Academy. They are Darkest Hour from 2017, Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice in 2018, The Father in 2020, and last year’s Drive My Car.
What about the movies that didn’t make AFI or NBR in 2022? That list includes Babylon, The Whale, Triangle of Sadness, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, All Quiet o the Western Front, and Decision to Leave. The last two weren’t eligible for AFI. Nevertheless this isn’t a list you want to be on though the outlook isn’t completely dire.
If history guides us again, 2 of the aforementioned 2022 titles could still get love from Oscar. Perhaps Monday’s Golden Globes nods will save some of them. There’s no doubt that Babylon and The Whale are looking shakier for Academy inclusion after this week. They need some attention from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
I’ll have my Golden Globe nominations recap up Monday and if you missed my predictions on them, you can find them here:
We have reached 2017 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-16, they are linked at the bottom of the post.
There were nine nominees for 2017’s competition. If there were 5, we know Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water would have made the quintet. It won BP along with Director, Original Score, and Production Design and received 13 nods total (easily the most of all).
Of the 8 remaining movies, here’s my thoughts on which half is in and which half and is out.
Call Me by Your Name
Luca Guadagnino’s coming-of-age romance was a critical darling that won Adapted Screenplay. It was also up for Actor (Timothee Chalamet) and Original Song. The Academy likely almost nominated Armie Hammer for Supporting Actor and are probably glad they snubbed him.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I struggled with this call. An argument could be made with the Adapted Screenplay victory. However, none of the other four nominees in this category were BP nominees (extraordinarily rare). Call could’ve heard its name up, but I have it sixth or seventh.
Darkest Hour
Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill was a recipe for a Best Actor win and it was up for Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling (another victory), and Costume Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Despite its admirable turn in the tech derbies, this was all about Oldman. The lack of directing, screenplay, and editing noms leave this out. This is the rare occurrence where I’m saying the Best Actor winner’s movie doesn’t get in the BP race.
Dunkirk
Christopher Nolan’s epic WWII tale earned 8 mentions (2nd behind Shape) and won 3 – both Sound races and Film Editing. Nolan also scored his first and only directing nod.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I don’t think it’s 100% considering other contenders, but this probably had enough support and was generally considered Nolan’s strongest awards pic in his filmography.
Get Out
Jordan Peele’s heralded horror flick was a box office smash. Its other three nominations were Director, Actor (Daniel Kaluuya), and Original Screenplay where it beat out Shape of Water.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Like Dunkirk, not a guarantee but that screenplay statue (over the BP recipient and two other contenders) make me think so.
Lady Bird
Greta Gerwig’s coming-of-age dramedy nabbed 5 inclusions with Director, Actress (Saoirse Ronan), Supporting Actress (Laurie Metcalf), and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Broken record… not a slam dunk considering it went 0 for 5. Yet it took the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy (over Get Out) and was highly acclaimed.
Phantom Thread
Paul Thomas Anderson’s sartorial drama was an overachiever on nomination morning with six including Director, Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville), Score, and Costume Design (the sole win).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I was tempted. It really did perform better than anticipated. I could also see it just missing considering the competition. It might have been sixth.
The Post
Steven Spielberg’s Watergate era drama received only one other nom for Meryl Streep in Actress.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and this is by far the easiest projection. Spielberg’s magic probably got it in the mix, but I suspect it was ninth.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
A player in 7 categories, Martin McDonagh’s pic took home Actress (Frances McDormand) and Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell). Woody Harrelson was also up for Supporting Actor in addition to Original Screenplay, Score, and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, even with McDonagh missing Director. If for no other reason, I can’t imagine the four acting winners having none of their movies up. That would be the case if you left this off considering Oldman’s Darkest Hour and I, Tonya (where Allison Janney took Supporting Actress) not being in the nine.
If you weren’t keeping score, here’s my projected 2017 five:
The Telluride Film Festival unveiled Joe Wright’s musical version of the nearly 125-year-old play Cyrano de Bergerac with Games of Thrones Emmy winner Peter Dinklage in the title role. The director is no stranger to awards attention as both Atonement and Darkest Hour nabbed Best Picture nods.
Early critical reaction for Cyrano in Colorado has thus far yielded an 83% Rotten Tomatoes. Much of the praise is devoted to Dinklage, who has likely put himself in position for his first Best Actor recognition. I doubt the same holds true for his costars including Haley Bennett, Kelvin Harrison Jr., and Ben Mendelsohn. If Dinklage makes final cut, he will follow Jose Ferrer (who Cyrano take won lead in 1950) and Gerard Depardieu (whose 1990 version garnered him a nod).
Dinklage’s wife Erica Schmidt serves as screenwriter. Adapted Screenplay is a possibility, but initial reaction tells me this is probably the Dinklage show with Production Design and Cinematography possible as well. My Oscar Prediction posts for the film of 2021 will continue…
The deeply troubled agoraphobic Anna Fox (Amy Adams) has a habit of avoiding reality in The Woman in the Window by chugging a bottle of wine and distracting herself with classic old movies. This is her way of not dealing with the story unfolding around her. There are times where I could relate as those vintage pictures would provide a better escape than what happens here for the most part.
Directed by Joe Wright (Atonement, Darkest Hour),Window is based on a 2018 novel by A.J. Finn. It features quite a list of Oscar winners (Gary Oldman, Julianne Moore) and actors you may think have won them (Adams, Jennifer Jason Leigh). The screenwriter Tracy Letts is a Pulitzer winning playwright. With that level of talent involved, one would think Window would rise above the histrionic Hitchcockian “homage” that it is. Mentioning Mr. Hitchcock might be too complimentary. This shares many similar plot points to 2016’s The Girl on the Train, which was also based on a book meant to be read on an airplane or the beach you rush to after the flight. You could easily call this The Girl on the Painkillers.
Dr. Fox is a child psychologist whose condition has kept her confined to her Manhattan apartment. In addition to her binge drinking/movie watching, she spends most of her day spying on neighbors. The new ones across the street are the Russell family – businessman Alistair (Oldman), wife Jane (Moore), and teen son Ethan (Fred Hechinger). Or maybe not. After the wife and boy visit her, Anna suspects some abuse is occurring in the household. The mystery deepens when Jennifer Jason Leigh shows up as Alistair’s spouse. Maybe the abundance of Anna’s medication is causing hallucinations. Our voyeur tries to enlist the NYPD, led by Brian Tyree’s Henry detective, and her basement tenant (Wyatt Russell) to assist with her amateur sleuthing. There’s also the matter of Anna’s only family. She’s separated from her husband (Anthony Mackie) and they have a young daughter. They turn up in flashback form and saying much more would enter spoiler territory.
The Woman in the Window contains plenty of twists that might have worked in paperback form. The treatment by Wright and Letts is a tonally frantic one. This is primarily a melodrama that begs to be taken seriously from time to time. Some of the performers seem in on it as Oldman, Moore, and Hechinger got the memo to overact wildly. Yet this never reaches its apparent goal of being a genuine guilty pleasure. That’s too bad because the behind the camera personnel and cast in front of it deserved better. Many of those examples are contained in Anna’s cinematic collection in her brownstone where less spellbinding developments are transpiring.
On paper, at least, Joe Wright’s The Woman in the Window has a whole lot of Oscar connections in it. The psychological thriller stars Amy Adams, recipient of six nominations who’s never won (she’s considered well overdue for a victory). Costars include Academy winners and nominees such as Gary Oldman, Jennifer Jason Leigh, and Julianne Moore in addition to Anthony Mackie, Wyatt Russell, and Brian Tyree Henry. Screenwriter Tracy Letts has a Pulitzer Prize to his name. And Wright has seen two of his efforts (Atonement, Darkest Hour) nab Best Picture nods.
Window hits Netflix today after originally being planned for a fall 2019 premiere via 20th Century Fox. It was pushed back to May 2020 due to reshoots and the COVID-19 pandemic. The pic was finally snatched up by the streamer, foregoing a theatrical release. So there’s the question of whether this is even eligible for the Oscars since it’s not hitting the big screen. Not that it matters.
Word of mouth over the past several months has not been kind and the just lapsed review embargo confirms that. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a troubling 27% with many critics calling it a poor Hitchcock ripoff. Despite the many participants with a nexus to awards attention, Window appears more likely to garner Razzie mentions than anything at the big dance.
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