Daily Streaming Guide: March 29th Edition

The Streaming Guide today starts with a bold picture that defies genre explanation from 2018 and it’s currently available on Hulu:

Sorry to Bother You is one of the most audacious directorial debuts in recent memory from  Boots Riley, most known for his contributions to the world of hip hop. It is a daring race relations comedy and drama with an unmistakable point of view on capitalism. Sorry is also a romance, a tale of unions, and it manages to somehow incorporate science fiction elements with human and horse hybrids. That’s right… if you’re looking for something wholly original to view, this fits the bill. The cast includes Lakeith Stanfield, Tessa Thompson, Armie Hammer, and Danny Glover.

For my second pic (also via Hulu), I turn to 2017’s I, Tonya. From Craig Gillespie, it recounts the sordid saga of the 1994 Winter Olympics attack on figure skater Nancy Kerrigan. Margot Robbie earned an Oscar nod for her portrayal of rival Tonya Harding and Allison Janney took Supporting Actress gold as her wildly eccentric mother. Seek out ESPN’s 30 for 30 doc about the subject and watch I, Tonya as an added bonus.

And that does it for today, folks! Until next time…

I, Tonya Movie Review

I, Tonya, despite some faults, is an energetic and extremely well acted biopic of a notorious central figure who entered our lives at the onset of the tabloid world we live in. Tonya Harding (Margot Robbie), on one hand, defied incredible odds and utilized her figure skating talent and boundless drive to become of the sport’s best for a brief period. On the other, she allowed her not always charming demeanor to get in the way. The challenge of the screenplay from Steven Rogers is balancing a want to sympathize her while also acknowledging the subject’s own fault with events.

Harding grows up poor in Oregon with a real humdinger of an abusive mother played by Allison Janney, in a real humdinger of a scene stealing performance. Mother LaVona gives Tonya plenty of emotional issues, but also her severe and rather unhealthy competitive spirit. When the skating prodigy enters her teens, she falls for another abuser Jeff Gillooly (Sebastian Stan). It doesn’t take much for Tonya to adore him after he seems to be the first person to say anything nice to her. That doesn’t last for long.

The picture is told with narration from the main players, reportedly with the actors simply repeating their real life counterparts words. Robbie’s work is impressive. She may not totally resemble the title character’s physical presence, but she embodies her often frustrating personality. Stan is memorable as the clueless but also monstrous husband. And a special shout out goes to Paul Walter Hauser as Jeff’s friend and Tonya’s “bodyguard” Shawn. Like Janney, he pulls heists on sequences he appears in.

I, Tonya seems to know that we’re waiting to get to the part we all know – the attack on rival Nancy Kerrigan and the bungled aftermath of it. As in the real life fury and frenzy when it was happening in 1994, Kerrigan is mostly seen and not heard. We do witness the criminal enterprise behind the kneecapping where the stupidity of the culprits would struggle to be believable in a fiction work.

The film succeeds in helping explain how Tonya became Tonya. How much you feel for her will likely vary by the viewer. One thing is abundantly clear – she doesn’t think anything that’s happened to her is her fault. This is essentially her mantra.

I, Tonya can feel too over directed by Craig Gillespie and too frenetically edited for its own good at times. Yet the actors and the deliciously improbable story that drew the nation’s fixation one winter make it a winner overall. The real Tonya Harding would certainly claim the credit for the movie’s high points. The parts that don’t completely succeed? Not her fault.

*** (out of four)

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 2nd Edition

Thursday is here and that means my weekly Oscar predictions have kicked off for the month of November!

And that, ladies and gentlemen, means some changes have arrived. I am now expanding to include every category covering feature-length movies and listing my most likely possibilities in each. Additionally, I am slimming down the Best Picture possibilities from 25 to 15 and now just 10 instead of 15 in the other races.

There are a couple of revisions shown below I would like to cover. First, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been high on my list for weeks. However, persistent rumors abound that it may not be the surefire contender that it appears to be on paper. Therefore, it’s taken a hit this week. I still have it listed for Picture and Actress (Meryl Streep), but it’s fallen out of my predicted nominees in other categories.

Another change is one that intersects with the news of the day and it cannot be ignored. Due to recent allegations that have surfaced in the last few days, there is little question that Kevin Spacey’s chances for Supporting Actor in All the Money in the World have potentially disappeared. That revision is also reflected today.

Now, for the first time, my thoughts on all the races for the 2017 Oscars:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

4. Mudbound (PR: 8)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: 3)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

13. Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)

14. Detroit (PR: 12)

15. Get Out (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Battle of the Sexes

Downsizing

The Greatest Showman

The Big Sick

All the Money in the World

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Wonderstruck

Molly’s Game

Wind River

Coco

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

4. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)

5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

8. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 3)

9. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 10)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)

7. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Hostiles

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Algee Smith, Detroit

Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

3. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Diane Kruger, In the Fade

Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)

10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World

Will Poulter, Detroit

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Patrick Stewart, Logan

Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)

9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

Sarah Paulson, The Post

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

8. The Disaster Artist (PR: 7)

9. Stronger (PR: 10)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

All the Money in the World

Thank You for Your Service

First, They Killed My Father

The Death of Stalin

Wonder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

7. Get Out (PR: 8)

8. The Post (PR: 6)

9. Dunkirk (PR: 10)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread

Downsizing

Wind River

Battle of the Sexes

Coco

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute)

2. In the Fade

3. First, They Killed My Father

4. Happy End

5. Foxtrot

Other Possibilities:

6. The Square

7. A Fantastic Woman

8. Loveless

9. The Divine Order

10. Tom of Finland

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco

2. The Breadwinner

3. Loving Vincent

4. Birdbag: The Forgotten Children

5. Ferdinand

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie

7. Cars 3

8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

9. Despicable Me 3

10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. City of Ghosts

2. Risk

3. Icarus

4. Cries from Syria

5. Jane

Other Possibilities:

6. Step

7. The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson

8. Dina

9. One of Us

10. Kedi

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. Darkest Hour

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Mudbound

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049

7. The Post

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9. Call Me by Your Name

10. Detroit

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Darkest Hour

5. Phantom Thread

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck

7. Mudbound

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

9. Wonder Wheel

10. The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Darkest Hour

4. Phantom Thread

5. Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast

7. The Greatest Showman

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9. Wonder Wheel

10. Call My by Your Name

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread

2. Beauty and the Beast

3. Darkest Hour

4. The Greatest Showman

5. Victoria and Abdul

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049

7. The Beguiled

8. Wonder Wheel

9. The Post

10. Murder on the Orient Express

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. The Shape of Water

3. Phantom Thread

Other Possibilities:

4. The Greatest Showman

5. I, Tonya

6. Beauty and the Beast

7. Thor: Ragnarok

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. It

10. Wonderstruck

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

4. The Shape of Water

5. Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

7. Beauty and the Beast

8. Wonder Woman

9. Thor: Ragnarok

10. Kong: Skull Island

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. Wonder Woman

5. Transformers: The Last Knight

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water

7. Coco

8. Detroit

9. Baby Driver

10. War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. The Shape of Water

5. The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver

7. Detroit

8. Transformers: The Last Knight

9. Darkest Hour

10. Coco

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Wonderstruck

5. Coco

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

7. The Post

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

10. The Greatest Showman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast

5. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit

8. “The Promise” from The Promise

9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

10. “To Be Human” from Wonder Woman

And that leaves my inaugural breakdown for number of nominations by each picture:

12 Nominations

The Shape of Water

11 Nominations

Darkest Hour

10 Nominations

Dunkirk

6 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

5 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread

4 Nominations

Mudbound, The Greatest Showman

3 Nominations

The Florida Project, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Post, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, Beauty and the Beast

1 Nomination

Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Happy End, A Fantastic Woman, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdbag: The Forgotten Children, Ferdinand, City of Ghosts, Risk, Icarus, Cries from Syria, Jane, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker 

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 26th Edition

My weekly Thursday predictions are in for the eight major categories at the Oscars. As October closes out, we will see some changes beginning next week as November rolls in. This will be the final week of listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 for the other seven races. Starting next week, the Best Picture possibilities will go down to 15 and 10 in the other categories. Additionally, on November 2, I’ll be bringing in the other categories related to feature films.

Over the past week, we’ve seen first trailers hit for I, Tonya and Phantom Thread, both threats to get multiple nods. The Phantom trailer and subsequent news also introduced us to Vicky Krieps, who apparently will be campaigned for in an already packed lead actress race. I’m still on The Florida Project bandwagon and it moves from 9th to 7th this week in BP possibilities. Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird also makes a big jump in the rankings.

The film Chappaquiddick was moved to 2018 and that now removes the (long shot) possibility that Jason Clarke could have received a Best Actor nod portraying Senator Ted Kennedy.

Yet the biggest development of the week is Warner Bros announcement that Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris will be opening in February 2018. There’s still a chance it could receive a limited late year push for Oscar consideration, but for now it’s out of contention.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 9)

8. Mudbound (PR: 7)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Lady Bird (PR: 18)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 15)

12. Detroit (PR: 10)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

14. Get Out (PR: 20)

15. Last Flag Flying (PR: 11)

16. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 14)

17. Downsizing (PR: 16)

18. The Greatest Showman (PR: 17)

19. The Big Sick (PR: 22)

20.  All the Money in the World (PR: 19)

21.  Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 23)

22.  Wonderstruck (PR: 21)

23. Molly’s Game (PR: 25)

24. Wind River (PR: 24)

25. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The 15:17 to Paris

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 7)

9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

10. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 15)

11. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

12. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 10)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)

15. Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

7. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 8)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 9)

10. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 7)

11. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 11)

12. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 13)

13. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 12)

14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: 15)

15. Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (moved to 2018)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

7. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)

8. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 11)

12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 10)

13. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

14. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 14)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 15)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)

11. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 10)

12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)

13. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 11)

14. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 14)

15. Idris Elba, Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 9)

9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 11)

12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 12)

14. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 13)

15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 3)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

7. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

8. The Beguiled (PR: 9)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Stronger (PR: 11)

11. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

12. Thank You for Your Service (PR: Not Ranked)

13. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 15)

14. The Death of Stalin (PR: 13)

15. Wonder (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

The 15:17 to Paris

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Post (PR: 3)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

8. Get Out (PR: 8)

9. I, Tonya (PR: 10)

10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)

11. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

12. Downsizing (PR: 11)

13. Wind River (PR: 13)

14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit 

Wonder Wheel

And there you have it! My final October predictions. I’ll be back next week with all the categories for the first time…

Oscar Watch: I, Tonya

Blogger’s Note Update (09/11/17): Neon has picked up the distribution rights for I, Tonya. Expect it to be released by year’s end for an Oscar push.

One picture skated into the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend with relatively small expectations. Yet Craig Gillespie’s I, Tonya has turned into a major critical and audience favorite. Whispers of Oscar possibilities are getting considerably louder.

The title character is Tonya Harding, the infamous Olympic figure skater accused of masterminding an attack on rival Nancy Kerrigan in 1994. Margot Robbie is Harding and her performance is drawing many raves. Allison Janney portrays Tonya’s mom and she’s getting equal, if not more, attention.

Robbie has yet to be nominated for an Oscar in her short but fruitful career thus far. Prognosticators are also keeping an eye on her supporting turn in this fall’s Goodbye Christopher Robin. The packed nature of Best Actress has been discussed several times over the last few days on this blog. Even with fierce competition, early notices seem to indicate that Robbie could be a factor.

The Supporting Actress race looks less crowded as of now. Janney, a seven-time Emmy winner, would also be a newcomer for Academy attention. Her inclusion in that category is looking like a major possibility.

One potential hiccup: I, Tonya doesn’t have a distributor at press time and it’s not 100% certain it’s released before the end of the year. However, based on the sizzling buzz emanating from our neighbor to the north, look for that to happen rapidly.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Finest Hours Box Office Prediction

Disney hopes to bring audiences in next weekend with the true life disaster pic The Finest Hours, but I have a feeling that choppy waters could be ahead. The 1950s set tale of a Coast Guard rescue mission comes with a reported $80 million budget and stars Chris Pine, Casey Affleck, Ben Foster, and Eric Bana. Craig Gillespie, who last worked with the Mouse Factory on the commercially disappointing Million Dollar Arm, is behind the camera.

The studio probably hopes that Hours can appeal to adult viewers looking for an old fasioned adventure film, but trailers and TV spots haven’t been too impressive. Early reviews have been pretty underwhelming to boot. I believe this may struggle to even reach double digits, but I’ll predict it clocks in just past that for a letdown of a debut.

The Finest Hours opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my Kung Fu Panda 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/20/kung-fu-panda-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Fifty Shades of Black prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/fifty-shades-of-black-box-office-prediction/

For my Jane Got a Gun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/21/jane-got-a-gun-box-office-prediction/