After October closed out with an expected whimper, four movies hope to kickstart a busy November at multiplexes. Toho sequel Godzilla Minus Zero, animated Dr. Seuss adaptation The Cat in the Hat, Indian action fantasy Ramayana: Part 1, and Martin McDonagh’s black comedy Wild Horse Nine all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
There could be a battle for #1, but in the matchup of Godzilla vs. Hat, I’m giving the giant lizard the advantage. Predecessor Godzilla Minus One from 2023 debuted to $11 million. However, its reputation has grown and anticipation for the follow-up might have it tripling that start in the mid 30s.
The Cat in the Hat hopes to play well over the holiday season. I wouldn’t be shocked if my estimate is a tad high though I am giving it the benefit of the doubt with a premiere just over $30 million.
The biggest question mark is Ramayana: Part 1. Pre-sales are encouraging for the highly priced tagged epic. It opens on Thursday and that should contribute to a front-loaded total. I think it gets past $10 million from Friday to Sunday for a third place showing.
As for Wild Horse Nine, it may only get to lower single digits on around 1000 screens. It’ll hope for awards buzz to keep it in venues moving forward. My $3.9 million figure puts it outside the top five.
Holdover and current champ You Can See Everything should drop to fourth. Wildwood is likely to experience a smaller dip than Clayface and allow the former to be fifth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Godzilla Minus Zero
Predicted Gross: $32 million
2. The Cat in the Hat
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
3. Ramayana: Part 1
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)
4. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
5. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $6 million
6. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)
In a Halloween frame where no new titles entered the wide release marketplace, buzzy documentary You Can See Everything vaulted to first after two weeks in second. A24’s Oscar contender took in $11.4 million, below my $12.9 million prediction for a three-week total of $64 million. It is doing numbers that the genre doesn’t do.
Clayface dropped to second with $11 million, under my $13.5 million projection. The DC Universe body horror flick has made $44 million after two weeks. That’s not bad considering the reported $40 million budget.
Laika Animation’s Wildwood eased only 27% in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million, a tad more than my $8 million take. The critically acclaimed stop-motion effort has $27 million in its coffers.
Wicker with Olivia Colman also held impressively with $4.3 million in weekend #2. I was close at $4 million as the ribald comedy has made $13 million.
Street Fighter rounded out the top five with $3.6 million (I said $4 million). The video game adaptation has $53 million after three weeks.
Halloween is typically a quiet time at the box office and that should play out in 2026 with it falling on a Saturday. There are no significant wide releases other than Christmas at the Kringles. I didn’t do an individual prediction post for the Briarcliff release. The comedic horror flick is slated to release on approximately 1800 screens and I don’t think it’ll make enough cash (maybe $2 to $2.5 million) to place in the top five.
That leaves holdovers for what could be a close contest between current champ Clayface and You Can See Everything, which has held the runner-up spot for two weeks in a row. I have the former dropping in the mid 40s with the latter easing in the mid 30s.
After kicking off on the higher end of its expected range, Wildwood should remain in third with Street Fighter and Wicker in a battle for fourth and fifth position. Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
2. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $8 million
4. Wicker
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Street Fighter
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (October 23-25)
Sporting a reported $40 million budget (certainly small for the DC Universe), Clayface made $24 million for a slightly better debut than my $22 million prediction. The R-rated comic book adaptation’s results are alright considering the price tag as it hopes viewers will keep coming during the Halloween frame.
A24’s acclaimed doc You Can See Everything expanded wide and was second with $19.5 million. I went a little higher at $23.8 million though it can boast a better per theater average than Clayface. The probable Oscar contender has amassed $45 million.
Laika Animation’s Wildwood capitalized on rave reviews in third with $12.2 million. That’s still not great when factoring the $100 million plus budget, but it’s stronger than the lower forecasts including my own at $7.2 million.
Video game adaptation Street Fighter was knocked down from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing with $8.5 million. That’s a whopping 72% plummet and under my $11.6 million projection. The two-week total is $46 million.
Wicker with Olivia Colman and Alexander Skarsgård built a commendable female following in fifth with $5.7 million. I went with $4.9 million.
Jessica Chastain’s horror pic Other Mommy was sixth with $3.9 million. My guess? $3.9 million! The three-week tally is $51 million.
Seventh place went to Sense and Sensibility as the Jane Austen adaptation made $3.3 million, not matching my $4.2 million call. The ten-day gross is an underwhelming $13 million.
Whalefall sunk to eighth in frame #2 with $3 million (I said $3.7 million). The whale tale is also at $13 million.
Last (and least), Taika Waititi’s Klara and the Sun had a dark debut in 15th (!) with just $701,000 and an average of under $800 per venue. Oof. I said it would do $2.3 million.
Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s You Can See Everything has done the kind of box office numbers that documentaries simply don’t do unless it is Fahrenheit 9/11 from 22 years ago. The unconventional look at Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes as she prepares for prison and the aftermath has become a water cooler experience for audiences.
When I did my last predictions update two weeks ago, I did not have Everything listed in my top 15 possibilities for Best Picture. A lot has changed. It now sits at #3. Along with The Odyssey and The Black Ball, I believe a win narrative is present. Fielder and Oppenheim also make their appearance (in third) in the directing quintet. The film rises from #2 to #1 in Documentary Feature. I have it down for an Editing nod and it could get into Cinematography and Original Score.
The Everything love also extends to the acting categories. Due to the doc’s nature, I will not spoil who I’m predicting for a Supporting Actress nomination. Those who’ve seen the pic will understand. That will likely change soon but I’ll be kind enough to put a spoiler alert for readers who haven’t seen it.
Everything‘s rise in Picture takes out Elsinore while Fielder and Oppenheim’s ascension in Director drops Ryusuke Hamaguchi (All of a Sudden). She who shall not be named in Supporting Actress has Lola Dueñas from The Black Ball on the outside looking in. While Dueñas falls, her costar Guitarricadelafuente makes his first appearance in Supporting Actor. That removes Edward Norton (The Invite) from my five in what would be seen as a rather major snub.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (E)
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (E)
10. Obsession (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Elsinore (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)
13. Artificial (PR: 13) (E)
14. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (-2)
15. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Possible Love
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (E)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. REDACTED, You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+2)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 9) (E)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Artificial (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)
9. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Possible Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ink (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime
Wildwood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Possible Love (PR:4) (E)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coward (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Everytime (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Hoppers (PR: 8) (E)
9. In Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Minions & Monsters
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (+1)
2. NAZA (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One in a Million (PR: 6) (E)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)
8. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (+1)
9. 14th (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
When a Witness Recants
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+2)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 6) (-2)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)
9. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. You Can See Everything (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. I Play Rocky (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicker (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rose (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Clayface (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Bride!
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wildwood (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Debut (PR: 10) (+1)
10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Artificial
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. “The City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Saddest Song” from Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Backrooms (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 7) (E)
8. Whalefall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wildwood
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wildwood (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)
8. Whalefall (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Sheep Detectives (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The End of Oak Street
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
15 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Three
6 Nominations
The Debut, Wild Horse Nine
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Invite, You Can See Everything
3 Nominations
Digger, Obsession
2 Nominations
Artificial, Elsinore, Michael, Rose, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Behemoth!, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Disclosure Day, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Werwulf, Wicker, Wildwood
The latest DC Comics entry veers into full R rated body horror mode via Clayface which opens Friday. James Watkins directs the gory tale with Tom Rhys Harries in the title role and Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan providing support.
With 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 on Metacritic, Clayface is generating varied critical responses. This is not seen as an Oscar player for Warner Bros/DC with a notable exception. Those body horror effects could be rewarded in the Makeup & Hairstyling category. Recent ceremonies have seen the genre become more a player in that race with The Substance winning in 2024 and The Ugly Stepsister landing a nom last year. This could certainly make the contending quintet while a victory is likely out of reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Update (10/21): I didn’t do an individual post for Wicker with Olivia Colman, but with the news that it is debuting on over 1400 screens, my $4.9 million puts it in fifth place on my chart.
Clayface from the DC Universe was, until very recently, expected to easily rule the box office charts this weekend. That may be challenged from a previously unanticipated source. We also have Laika Animation’s critically acclaimed Wildwood and Taika Waititi’s far from acclaimed sci-fi dramedy Klara and the Sun starring Jenna Ortega premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Clayface could gross high teens for a floor to possibly mid to high 20s in the best case scenario. My estimate puts it right in the middle of the range in the low 20s. That’s far from impressive but not too shabby considering its reported $40 million budget.
As mentioned, that figure was thought to be enough to give it bragging rights at #1. Then You Can See Everything happened. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary about imprisoned Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes exceeded all expectations with a sizzling #2 debut on 855 screens (more on its opening below). It is slated to grow to around 2600 venues this weekend. I think the word-of-mouth could mean a low to mid 20s output in its sophomore frame. That means I’m giving it the edge for the top spot.
Wildwood, despite glowing reviews, may fall under $10 million for a fourth place start. As for Klara, my meager $2.3 million guesstimate might mean it struggles to even make the top 10.
Current champ Street Fighter should be third with a low 60s percentage fall while holdovers Sense and Sensibility, Whalefall, and Other Mommy all post similar grosses.
Here’s how I see it all shaking out:
1. You Can See Everything
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Clayface
Predicted Gross: $22 million
3. Street Fighter
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
4. Wildwood
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
5. Wicker
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
6. Sense and Sensibility
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
7. Other Mommy
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
8. Whalefall
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Video game based Street Fighter kicked off in line with expectations at $30.7 million for first, managing to outdo my $24.5 million take. I look for it to fade quickly.
A24 nailed down the second highest non-concert documentary opening in history behind 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 with You Can See Everything. With over $18k per screen, the doc (which no one knew existed until it surprise screened at Telluride) was runner-up with $15.6 million. That’s well beyond my $8.9 million prediction as its future looks rosy.
Other Mommy dropped to third with $8.2 million (a 70% plummet) compared to my $9.1 million call. The horror flick with Jessica Chastain sits at $44 million after two weeks.
Survival tale Whalefall flopped in fourth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2 million projection. Mixed reviews helped sink it.
Sense and Sensibility rounded out the top five with a respectable $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.3 million forecast. The latest Jane Austen adaptation may hold up fairly in subsequent weekends.
Finally, Verity was sixth with $6 million (I said $5.9 million) as the romantic thriller brought its three-week tally to $65 million.
Clayface is not your typical DC Universe flick and it might not reach the numbers of most other entries in the franchise. The R-rated thriller containing elements of body horror comes from director James Watkins with Tom Rhys Harries as the title character. Costars include Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan.
It’s been a rough year for Warner Bros and DC was part of that with the massive underperformance of Supergirl. It opened to a less than expected $38 million and was heavily front-loaded with just $72 million domestically. Guesstimates aren’t as high for Clayface and it only sports a $40 million budget compared to Supergirl‘s (at least) $170 million.
Unless this picks up steam in the coming week, low to mid 20s is the likely result.
In the two weeks that have gone by since my last update, the New York and London Film Festivals have given us our first looks at Behemoth!, Artificial, Wildwood, and Ray Gunn. We also had the dismal box office openings and mixed critical reaction for Digger and The Social Reckoning.
So what’s the verdict? Artificial has moved up in my estimation, especially for Andrew Garfield in Supporting Actor where it was recently confirmed he would be placed. Behemoth!, despite some decent buzz, falls out of Best Picture with Elsinore jumping into the BP ten for the first time. The Elsinore bump extends to Andrew Scott who rises to #1 in Best Actor.
Wildwood solidifies itself as the Animated Feature frontrunner with Ray Gunn probably faring well enough to make the quintet of nominees (though not a threat to win).
The Social Reckoning is likely DOA. Digger is more complicated. Yes, the reviews were decidedly all over the place. Yet the actors branch may choose to reward Tom Cruise for his work and, frankly, for taking a giant creative swing. He had moved out of my Best Actor quintet several weeks ago, but now he’s back in at the expense of Robert Pattinson (Primetime).
You can read all the movement below and my next update will be in approximately two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+2)
6. The Debut (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Elsinore (PR: 14) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (E)
12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)
13. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Possible Love (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Digger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Tony Gilroy, Behemoth!
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (+1)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3.Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (E)
5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 6) (-4)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
8. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Club Kid
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Being Heumann (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Fatherland (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)
10. Everytime (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (E)
7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hoppers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Minions & Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
In Waves
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. One in a Million (PR: 5) (-1)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)
8. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)
10. 14th (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Nuisance Bear
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael
The Invite
Digger
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Behemoth!
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)
7. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-4)
10. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Primetime
Digger
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wicker (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rose (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Bride! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wildwood (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Didn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write A Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Too Muck to Ask” from Ray Gunn
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+4)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Debut
Werwulf
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Whalefall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Sheep Detectives
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
15 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Dune: Part Three, Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Debut, The Invite
3 Nominations
Digger, Elsinore, Obsession
2 Nominations
Artificial, Disclosure Day, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Fatherland, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Werwulf, Wicker, You Can See Everything
We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.
The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.
Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.
The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.
You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)
12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Michael
Ink
Club Kid
You Can See Everything
The Social Reckoning
Werwulf
Being Heumann
Primetime
Josephine
Sense and Sensibility
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
Curry Barker, Obsession
Danny Boyle, Ink
Robert Eggers, Werwulf
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
Mason Reeves, Josephine
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
Seth Rogen, The Invite
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
Jordan Firstman, Club Kid
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
Sandra Hüller, Digger
Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Eva Victor, Behemoth!
Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
John Goodman, Digger
Skyler Gisondo, Primetime
Riz Ahmed, Digger
Channing Tatum, Josephine
Tom Holland, The Odyssey
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)
3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)
10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Silent Friend
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)
7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All of a Sudden
Fjord
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
You Can See Everything
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elsinore
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Werwulf
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Save the Day” from Hoppers
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wild Horse Nine
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)
10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Digger
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)
4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)
7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
10 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
7 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite
5 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.
So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).
In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.
In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.
John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.
The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.
You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)
8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)
13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)
16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)
18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)
19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)
23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)
24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Disclosure Day
A Long Winter
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)
14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Lance Oppenheim, Primetime
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jack O’Connell, Ink
Dominic Sessa, Tony
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Ink
Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)
10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)
11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)
8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Mimesis
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)
5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hexed
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)
2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)
4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)
5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)
8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The History of Concrete
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Invite
Elsinore
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)
10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)
2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Obsession
Is God Is
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Wildwood
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wildwood
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Whalefall
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
13 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
The Debut
6 Nominations
The Invite, Wild Horse Nine
5 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three
4 Nominations
Behemoth!
3 Nominations
Obsession
2 Nominations
Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf
1 Nomination
American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything
It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.
There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.
Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).
Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)
22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)
25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
I Play Rocky
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)
13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)
11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Artificial
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)
5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)
3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)
8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)
9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Drama
Fatherland
I Play Rocky
Josephine
Misty Green
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Being Heumann
Prima Facie
A Long Winter
Minotaur
Wildwood
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)
2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)
3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)
4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)
2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)
4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)
2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)
3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)
5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Closure
Everybody to Kenmure Street
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)
8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ink
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)
9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Fjord
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Bride!
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Social Reckoning
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)
2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD
3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)
9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)
7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)
3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)
4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)
4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
16 Nominations
The Odyssey
11 Nominations
The Black Ball
9 Nominations
Project Hail Mary
8 Nominations
Wild Horse Nine
6 Nominations
The Debut, Dune: Part Three
5 Nominations
Fjord, The Invite
4 Nominations
Behemoth!, Michael
3 Nominations
Obsession, Werwulf
2 Nominations
All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5
1 Nomination
14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood
