Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction

The summer of 2017 kicks off as it has numerous times before in recent seasons – with a major Disney/Marvel production expected to post gargantuan box office numbers. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 follows up the blockbuster that turned out to be the biggest hit of summer 2014.

James Gunn returns to direct, as does the superhero cast of Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, and the vocal work of Bradley Cooper and Vin Diesel (as Baby Groot this time around). Also back are Glenn Close and Michael Rooker. Joining the mix in the sequel are Tango (Sylvester Stallone) and Cash (Kurt Russell)!

There is little doubt that Vol. 2 will post impressive results and quite easily outdo what its predecessor opened at three summers ago. Flashback to 2014 and Guardians was actually considered a risk. Strong reviews and word-of-mouth propelled it to a $94 million premiere and $333 million overall domestic haul. Expectations for the opening here are much higher. $150 million seems to be the low bar. Critical reaction to the sequel has been mostly encouraging and it stands at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, with most reviewers saying it doesn’t quite match the freshness of the original.

A better comparison to its potential could be last summer’s Captain America: Civil War, opened the 2016 season with $179 million or Iron Man 3, which started off summer 2013 with $174 million. I’m predicting Guardians won’t quite reach those numbers, but come close.

My Vol. 2 projection puts it at the 9th largest domestic opening of all time, in between Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. My estimate gives it the 5th highest debut in both the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the month of May and second biggest 2017 bow after March’s Beauty and the Beast.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 opening weekend prediction: $166.4 million

Passengers Movie Review

Morten Tyldum’s Passengers is a gorgeous looking experience starring two gorgeous people that nevertheless comes up empty in its overall execution. We are presented with two souls who are lost in space and find love, but the chemistry between the two giant stars never quite connects.

These subjects come in the form of Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. They are two among thousands of Earthlings on a very long trip to a new planet. How long you might ask? 120 years, which means the passengers and the crew are in hibernation mode until they reach their destination. Jim (Pratt) is jarred awake one day from his slumber and realizes he’s the only one with his eyes open and there’s 90 years left on the journey. He makes it for a year on his own in the beautifully designed ship (props to the production design team), but his loneliness leads him to wake up talented writer Aurora (Lawrence). She thinks she’s woken up accidentally like Jim and he shares his secrets with the only other talking being on board – an android bartender in the form of Michael Sheen.

The duo spend their time trying to figure why the heck they’re such early risers while also falling in love. Jon Spaihts’s screenplay attempts to grapple with the understandable but also rather cruel choice by Jim to get Aurora up. Yet once certain revelations are brought out, the script follows a rather predictable and dull path.

Lawrence and Pratt are two performers who are rarely dull or predictable, but Passengers doesn’t do them any favors. No matter how hard they try, their characters are under developed and their chemistry is passable at best.

We’ve witnessed the stranded in space genre more recently and in much better fashion, from Gravity to The Martian. Speaking of gravity, there is a scene with a loss of just that that’s nifty. Ultimately though, Passengers doesn’t add much new or intriguing, even if it’s pretty to look at.

** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Passengers

A week ago, the prospect of this Wednesday’s Passengers receiving some Oscar attention didn’t seem totally far fetched. After all, the Academy has shown some love to the science fiction space pic genre three years ago with Gravity and last year with The Martian as they both received Best Picture nods. In addition, their respective leads Sandra Bullock and Matt Damon were nominated in the lead acting races.

Passengers is director Morten Tyldum’s follow-up to The Imitation Game, which was in the Picture race two years ago and for which he received a directing nod. And this space opera boasts Jennifer Lawrence, who’s been nominated four times since 2010 and won in 2012 for Silver Linings Playbook. So, again, not so far fetched.

And then reviews happened late this week for the sci fi romantic thriller which costars Chris Pratt. The verdict? A rather troubling 32% on Rotten Tomatoes and its Oscar chances evaporating. Passengers still has a remote shot at Visual Effects, but in all likelihood the pic will be sitting on the awards sideline.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Passengers Box Office Prediction

There’s some serious star power coming to multiplexes this Christmas when Passengers debuts a week from today. The science fiction romantic thriller stars Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt, who have both seen their share of blockbusters over the last few years. Morten Tyldum directs (his previous effort was the Oscar nominated The Imitation Game) and costars include Laurence Fishburne, Michael Sheen, and Andy Garcia.

The reported $120 million production finds Katniss and Star Lord stranded in space when they wake up way earlier than the other inhabitants of their vessel. There may not be a whole lot of actors who can assist in opening a movie, but the combo of these two may do the trick.

Predicting exact numbers over the Christmas weekend is a tricky proposition. Passengers debuts on Wednesday and we are going to factor in Wednesday-Monday. The 26th is a federal holiday and grosses of years past have shown that to sometimes be a bigger movie going day than even Christmas. Rogue One will likely reign supreme over the long weekend with the animated Sing giving it a run for its money. That probably puts Passengers in third place with a low 30s four-day and mid 40s six-day.

Passengers opening weekend prediction: $31.4 million (Friday to Monday), $42 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my Sing prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/sing-box-office-prediction/

For my Assassin’s Creed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/assassins-creed-box-office-prediction/

For my Why Him? prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/why-him-box-office-prediction/

For my Fences prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/14/fences-box-office-prediction/

The Magnificent Seven Box Office Prediction

There are few actors out there who can truly open a movie, but Denzel Washington is one of them. He’s back on screen for the first time in two years with The Magnificent Seven next weekend. A remake of the 1960 classic with Yul Brynner (which itself was a reworking of 1954’s Seven Samurai), this Western re-teams Washington with his Training Day and The Equalizer director Antoine Fuqua. It also features the red-hot Chris Pratt, Training costar Ethan Hawke, Vincent D’Onofrio, Peter Sarsgaard, and Haley Bennett.

Early reviews for Seven have been mixed, but this is likely to be a critic proof exercise that delivers an impressive debut. To give you some perspective on Washington’s star power, his last seven pictures have made over $20 million out of the gate (The Taking of Pelham 123, The Book of Eli, Unstoppable, Safe House, Flight, 2 Guns, The Equalizer). Three (Eli, House, Equalizer) have topped $30M and Safe House managed $40M. With its familiar title and the participation of Pratt (coming off summer 2014’s biggest hit Guardians of the Galaxy and summer 2015’s biggest hit Jurassic World), Seven could also join the plus $40M club. In fact, if this reaches over $43 million (the number that Washington’s 2007 pic American Gangster accomplished), it would mark his largest opening.

I believe it will accomplish that feat for a mid to high 40s debut and that would give it the #2 September premiere of all time.

The Magnificent Seven opening weekend prediction: $47.1 million

For my Storks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/14/storks-box-office-prediction/

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Day #4 of my first 2016 Oscar predictions brings us to Best Actor and in the past two years, even these incredibly early predictions yielded positive results. My 2014 late August/early September Actor predictions gave us four of the five nominees and in 2015 – three.

We start with Michael Keaton. He just missed out on a win in 2014 for Birdman and has had the distinction of appearing in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). It’s likely he’ll receive buzz for this December’s The Founder, in which he plays Ray Kroc – inventor of the McDonald’s franchise.

Denzel Washington both stars and directs in Fences, based on an acclaimed play. It’s been 15 years since he won for Training Day and it could be time to hear his name called again.

Casey Affleck has received raves for Manchester by the Sea. Same goes for Joel Edgerton in Jeff Nichols’ Loving. Readers of the previous posts in the Supporting races know that Moonlight looks to make some noise this season and that could extend to its star Trevante Rhodes.

Same goes for La La Land, which could mean a second nomination (ten years after Half Nelson) for Ryan Gosling. There’s Joe Alwyn in the title role of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, the latest from double Oscar winner Ang Lee. Woody Harrelson plays the 36th President in LBJ. Double Oscar winner Tom Hanks is Sully. And so on and so on (I’ve even listed Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool as a possibility… even though it’s extremely unlikely).

This finally brings us to Nate Parker, director, writer, and star of The Birth of a Nation, which received raves on the festival circuit earlier this year. It is impossible to know right now how his recent publicity due to a years old rape charge (in which he acquitted) and the suicide of the alleged victim plays out in the minds of voters. For now, I do not have him being nominated. Whether that’s because of the serious competition or other reasons is a factor that is sure to be discussed as the nominations draw closer.

Here’s how I have this initial round shaking out:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Michael Keaton, The Founder

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Andrew Garfield, Silence

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Tom Hanks, Sully

Woody Harrelson, LBJ

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake

Joseph Gordon Levitt, Snowden

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

David Oyelowo, A United Kingdom

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Dev Patel, Lion

Brad Pitt, Allied

Chris Pratt, Passengers

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Michael Shannon, Midnight Special

Will Smith, Collateral Beauty

Miles Teller, Bleed for This

We’ll hit Best Director tomorrow and then Best Picture!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn–zOO8LN8

Jurassic World Movie Review

For anyone under the age of about 30, it’s difficult to put into words just how amazing Steven Spielberg’s Jurassic Park was when it debuted in theaters during the summer of 1993. As moviegoers today, we are accustomed to astonishing visual effects almost every week, especially during this season. Yet when those dinosaurs made their first appearance on screen 22 years ago, our jaws dropped along with Laura Dern and Sam Neill’s. It was a triumph of special effects and now our nostalgia factor with the original has reached the beloved status.

I never could quite put Jurassic Park alongside my Spielberg foursome of popcorn classics that are Jaws, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Raiders of the Lost Ark, and E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial. Don’t get me wrong – it’s a near great motion picture experience that’s only flaw is my indifference to the human characters that populate it. Having said that, we all know that the prehistoric creatures are the real stars of this series.

It is in that context that Colin Trevorrow’s Jurassic World mostly succeeds, more so than sequels we saw in 1997 and 2001. We have new dinos to feast on our eyes upon their creepy looking and menacing eyes. The script allows a proper amount of reverence for 1993’s groundbreaking picture, but none for the follow-ups because few of us have much reverence for them.

And we have to have the scared kids, right? Here it’s teenager Nick Robinson and little bro Ty Simpkins visiting their aunt (Bryce Dallas Howard), who is Jurassic World’s busy bee operations manager. Their parents are getting ready to divorce in grand and cliched fashion and their week long excursion to the park on Isla Nublar goes astray when the genetically designed new theme park attraction Indominus rex escapes his confines and his big debut involves terrorizing visitors. This doesn’t sit well with Jurassic’s head of security (Vincent D’Onofrio, hamming it up in a winking performance) and we learn of his plans to train some of the park’s dinos for military combat purposes. Let us ponder that – how cool would it be if that actually happened and we got to see it in an inevitable sequel/spinoff, eh?

Our main hero dealing with all this dino drama is Owen (Chris Pratt), an expert handler of the creatures who more than earns his overtime pay in these two hours plus. It is Pratt’s effortless charisma that makes him just about the most entertaining human character this franchise has given us thus far. His sidebar romance with Howard is perfunctory and tolerable. Pratt doesn’t get to let loose quite as much as he did in last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy, but he is a very welcome addition to the proceedings.

The special effects and design of the creatures will simply never rival the wonder factor from over two decades ago. Still these dinosaurs look pretty darn awesome and seeing them in the setting that Richard Attenborough’s Hammond wanted them in is a summertime treat. Jurassic World accomplishes this by reminding us how thrilling and fun this series can be in a way we haven’t experienced since the very first time we saw those now iconic park gates.

*** (out of four)

Jurassic World Box Office Prediction

Nearly 22 years to the day after Steven Spielberg’s dino adventure Jurassic Park invaded theaters in the summer of 1993, Colin Trevorrow’s reboot Jurassic World should rule the box office when it opens Friday. It’s the fourth entry in the franchise, but the first in fourteen years and there’s been proper time for nostalgia to increase, while still allowing young viewers to want to flock and see the cool prehistoric creatures wreaking havoc. Chris Pratt, who headlined 2014’s largest summer blockbuster Guardians of the Galaxy, stars with Bryce Dallas Howard and Vincent D’Onofrio supporting.

When the original Jurassic opened, its $47 million opening weekend take marked the biggest domestic debut of all time. It now ranks 197th. Jurassic World looks to easily double and threaten to triple what came before it over two decades ago. The pic looks to have the third highest domestic debut weekend of 2015, behind Avengers: Age of Ultron and Furious 7.

As I see it, this should pretty easily top $100 million out of the gate. It is the only wide release next weekend as competitors steered clear. The question is – by how much? I look for Jurassic World to flirt with $125M but fall just a bit under it for a rock solid premiere.

Jurassic World opening weekend prediction: $123.5 million

Todd’s 15 Most Anticipated 2015 Summer Movies: Nos. 5-1

We’ve arrived at my top five most anticipated 2015 Summer Movies, set to start rolling out in about three weeks through the end of August. If you missed my first two posts covering numbers 15-6, have no fear, just click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/09/todds-15-most-anticipated-2015-summer-movies-nos-15-11/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/04/10/todds-15-most-anticipated-2015-summer-movies-nos-10-6/

This brings us to the heavy hitters on my list of must-see flicks for the season.

And away we go:

5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Release Date: May 15

As mentioned in my first post, this July’s Terminator: Genisys didn’t make my top 15 cut because of what I consider its blah trailer. Mad Max: Fury Road represents the opposite. It looks flat out awesome as director George Miller reboots the series some 35 years after the first Mad Max with Mel Gibson. Tom Hardy steps into the title role with Charlize Theron costarring.

4. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Release Date: July 31

Pushed up from its original December release date, Tom Cruise’s fifth Mission pic brings in his Jack Reacher director Christopher McQuarrie. Series regulars Ving Rhames, Jeremy Renner, and Simon Pegg are back and joined by Alec Baldwin. 2011’s Ghost Protocol was a high point for the franchise and let’s hope this keeps it going.

3. Jurassic World

Release Date: June 12

The famed dino franchise begun by Spielberg gets a reboot with director Colin Trevorrow taking over and Star Lord himself Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard headlining. The trailer has me ready to return to that dastardly park immediately.

2. Tomorrowland

Release Date: May 22

Disney has enlisted their Incredibles director Brad Bird (he also directed the aforementioned Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol) for this live-action tale featuring George Clooney, Britt Robertson, and Hugh Laurie. The plot is being kept under wraps, but the trailer suggests a visual feast. With Bird behind the camera, expect something special.

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Release Date: May 1

The first picture of the summer is my most awaited and is certainly poised to be the season’s highest earner. Three years after teaming Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, Thor, Black Widow, Hawkeye and more – Joss Whedon is back again directing Marvel’s superhero team in the breathlessly awaited sequel to the second highest grossing domestic earner of all time. James Spader voices the title character villain. Don’t be surprised if this has the largest opening weekend in box office history – beating out, yes, The Avengers.

And that’ll do it, friends! I hope my list assists you with your popcorn viewing pleasure coming very soon…

2014: The Year of Chris Pratt

He had supporting roles earlier in comedies such as The Five Year Engagement and Delivery Man and dramas like Moneyball and Zero Dark Thirty. Simply put, though, in 2014 – Chris Pratt became a movie star. So much so that he earns a spot in part four of my six performers who shined brightest this year.

The actor, best known for his role on NBC’s acclaimed comedy “Parks and Recreation”, scored the lead in what turned out to be the year’s biggest hit – Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy. As Star Lord, Pratt gave a boffo performance in what some are calling the Star Wars of this generation. We will, of course, see him return to the role likely several more times.

As if that weren’t enough, Pratt was the lead voice in the #4 largest grosser of the year, this spring’s animated The LEGO Movie. That, too, has turned into a franchise.

Pratt’s actions in 2014 guarantee that we will see him and hear him in at least two massive series into the future. And 2015 brings a third with him in Jurassic World, the reboot of that beloved franchise.