In less than one month, the Summer 2015 Movie Season will be upon us! That means studios will be bringing out their big wannabe blockbusters with sequels, reboots, animated tales, comic book heroes, and a surprisingly robust group of potentially intriguing comedies.
Therefore, I am bringing you my personal 15 most anticipated summer movies for the year. Let me talk briefly about some pictures that didn’t quite make the cut. I left off animated fare such as Pixar’s Inside Out and Despicable Me spin-off Minions. Same goes for Pitch Perfect 2, Magic Mike XXL and the film version of HBO’s Entourage. And then there’s a film I figured would make the cut: Terminator: Genisys that marks Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to his iconic role after 12 years. Why? Quite frankly, I wasn’t crazy about the trailer. Don’t get me wrong – I’m still highly curious to watch it.
I will be breaking up my list in three installments and we begin this evening with numbers 15-11. Subsequent posts covering the top ten will arrive Friday and Saturday.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
15. Spy
Release Date: June 5
Originally, I probably wouldn’t have figured Melissa McCarthy’s new comedy would make the cut. That’s until reviews from screenings at South by Southwest came out and they indicate this is the star’s best feature so far. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Feig, director of McCarthy’s Bridesmaids and The Heat is behind the camera. Jude Law, Rose Byrne, and Jason Statham co-star.
14. Masterminds
Release Date: August 14
From the director of Napoleon Dynamite comes this heist comedy with a killer cast: Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, and Jason Sudeikis. The trailer inspires hope.
13. Vacation
Release Date: July 31
Yes, they’re rebooting the Vacation franchise with Ed Helms and Leslie Mann as grown-up Rusty and Audrey and Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo back as Clark and Ellen. Christina Applegate, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlie Day round out the cast. Here’s to hoping this is more like the original and Christmas Vacation than Vegas Vacation. No trailer has been released at press time.
12. Southpaw
Release Date: July 24
Jake Gyllenhall has been on a roll lately choosing his projects, including last year’s terrific Nightcrawler. This sports drama sees him playing a boxer with serious family issues. It also sees him heavily bulked up in a pic that could get awards attention, like 2010’s The Fighter. Antoine Fuqua directs (he made Training Day and The Equalizer) and Rachel McAdams and Forest Whitaker co-star.
11. Fantastic Four
Released Date: August 7
The first two installments of the famed Marvel comic books (the ones with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis) were decent size hits, however critics didn’t approve. This reboot comes from Chronicle director Josh Trank with a cast that includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, and Michael B. Jordan and it will attempt to begin the franchise anew.
And that’s all for now! Numbers 10-6 coming at you tomorrow…
Its reported $80 million budget represents the largest of all the four films rolling out over Martin Luther King weekend, yet Michael Mann’s cyber thriller Blackhat is likely to be the lowest opener among them. Thor himself Chris Hemsworth headlines the pic with Viola Davis in the supporting cast.
Michael Mann has been behind the camera for many hits that include The Last of the Mohicans, Heat, Collateral and Public Enemies, among others. Hemsworth is widely known for his Thor and Avengers work, but this will be a true test of his box office drawing power.
There have been no reviews released so far, which is curious. The January roll out makes me question just how confident (or not) Universal Pictures is with the project. Blackhat’s stumbling block appears to be its severe competiton. American Sniper seems poised for a big debut and Taken 3 should siphon off viewers as well in its sophomore frame.
Add that up and I look for a muted haul for Blackhat next weekend.
Blackhat opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million
From the release of Guardians of the Galaxy in August until the release of Avengers: Age of Ultron in May 2015, there will be nine months that pass between superhero/comic book based pictures. Starting next year and especially in 2016 and beyond, that’s going to change.
It’s almost hard to believe, but there are currently 30 – yes, 30 – superhero pics scheduled to debut between 2015 and 2020. Some – though likely not many at all – could fall to the wayside. And certainly more could be added to the calendar over the next six years.
Today, Marvel Studios announced “Phase 3” of their slate of films scheduled to be released until 2019 – culminating with the third and fourth Avengers pictures. Besides the Disney/Marvel releases, Warner Bros. and Fox have their own ambitious slates.
The 21st century has been absolutely dominated by the comic book adaptation in movie world. It started in 2000 with X-Men and has continued with the Dark Knight franchise, The Avengers, Guardians, two Superman reboots, two Spider-Man franchises, and various stand-alone features and their sequels and reboots focused on Captain America, Thor, Hulk, Daredevil, Hellboy, and others. And it’s only accelerating.
This is going to be tough to keep all these Iron Men, Guardians, Caped Crusaders, and newbies like Ant-Man, Wonder Woman, and Doctor Strange straight, so this movie blogger is providing you a handy guide for all of them coming out over the next few years – in order of currently scheduled release.
Here we go:
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Release Date: May 1, 2015
Joss Whedon returns to direct as Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, Thor, Hawkeye, and Black Widow all return in the sequel to the #3 highest grossing film of all time. This will almost surely set a new record for all-time opening weekend, therefore defeating its predecessor.
Ant-Man
Release Date: July 17, 2015
Paul Rudd takes on the role of the title character with Michael Douglas and Evangeline Lilly costarring. Expect Ant-Man to find his way into later Disney/Marvel projects, possibly including later Avengers sequels.
The Fantastic Four
Released Date: August 7, 2015
After two successful but critically panned Fantastic Four pics earlier this century, director Josh Trank (Chronicle) takes over the reins of a budding new franchise for 20th Century Fox. The cast includes Miles Teller as Mr. Fantastic, Kate Mara as the Invisible Woman, Michael B. Jordan as the Human Torch, and Jamie Bell as The Thing.
Deadpool
Release Date: February 12, 2016
A spinoff of the X-Men series, Ryan Reynolds is likely to play the character (he played him in the poorly received original 2009 Wolverine stand-alone flick).
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
Released Date: March 25, 2016
Man of Steel director Zack Snyder returns with Henry Cavill’s Superman battling Ben Affleck’s Batman. Gal Gadot will make her debut as Wonder Woman before a later stand-alone pic and Jesse Eisenberg joins the mix as Lex Luthor.
Captain America: Civil War
Release Date: May 6, 2016
The third America flick will feature a prominent role for Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man with The Winter Soldier‘s Anthony and Joe Russo returning to direct.
X-Men: Apocalypse
Release Date: May 27, 2016
Days of Future Past director Bryan Singer is back (he also directed the first two installments of the original trilogy) as is the cast from 2011’s First Class, including James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, and Jennifer Lawrence.
Suicide Squad
Release Date: August 5, 2016
This team of DC villains will be incorporated in the Warner Bros. movie universe that will eventually lead to the Justice League pics. Jesse Eisenberg is rumored to appear in this as well in his Lex Luthor role. David Ayer, director of Fury, is behind the camera.
Doctor Strange
Release Date: November 4, 2016
Sinister director Scott Derickson helms the adaptation of the Marvel comic with Benedict Cumberbatch just having signed to play the title character after negotiations with Joaquin Phoenix stalled.
Sinister Six
Release Date: November 11, 2016
A spin-off of the current Spider-Man franchise, this will focus on supervillains in the Spidey universe, reportedly including Green Goblin, Doctor Octopus, and Rhino. Cabin in the Woods director Drew Goddard is on board.
Venom
Release Date: 2017
A stand-alone pic for the Spidey villain, it’s uncertain at this point whether Sony Pictures ends up going forward with this one.
Untitled Wolverine Picture
Release Date: March 3, 2017
The third stand-alone Wolverine flick will have Hugh Jackman clawing his way on screen and James Mangold, who directed 2013’s The Wolverine, returning.
Guardians of the Galaxy 2
Release Date: May 5, 2017
Star Lord and company are back with James Gunn back in the director’s chair. The original from this summer grossed an astonishing $752 million worldwide (at press time).
Wonder Woman
Release Date: June 23, 2017
It’s about time a woman headlined one of these things! Gal Gadot will star after appearing as the title character in Batman v. Superman. No director attached at press time.
The Fantastic Four 2
Release Date: July 14, 2017
Fox is confident as they’ve scheduled this to follow-up summer 2015’s release.
Thor: Ragnorak
Release Date: July 28, 2017
The third entry in the franchise, Chris Hemsworth will reprise his role in between Avengers filming duties. No director attached yet.
Black Panther
Release Date: November 3, 2017
Disney/Marvel gives their first headlining feature to an African-American superhero. 42 and Get On Up star Chadwick Boseman was cast as the Panther today. The character will reportedly first appear in 2016’s Captain America: Civil War.
Justice League Part One
Release Date: November 17, 2017
Essentially Warner Bros. version of Avengers, expect to see Cavill’s Superman, Affleck’s Batman, Gadot’s Wonder Woman, and likely Green Lantern, The Flash, Aquaman, and Cyborg in the mix. Zack Snyder will direct.
The Amazing Spider-Man 3
Release Date: 2018
No specific release date yet, other than sometime in 2018 and you have to wonder. Each Spidey flick has grossed less than its predecessor and this summer’s The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was a commercial and critical letdown. It’s not known for sure yet, but Andrew Garfield is likely to return as the title character.
The Flash
Release Date: March 23, 2018
After a probable debut in Justice League, The Flash gets his own stand-alone pic with Ezra Miller in the title role.
Avengers: Infinity War, Part 1
Release Date: May 4, 2018
This is where the Marvel universe is likely to go bananas – with rumors of your typical Avengers (Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, Hulk) possibly mixing it up with Ant-Man, Doctor Strange, and the Guardians of the Galaxy, among others. This is gonna be huge.
Captain Marvel
Release Date: July 6, 2018
Details are scarce, but this will be Disney/Marvel Studios first stand-alone featuring a title character who is a female. Expect an A list actress to join at some point.
Untitled Fox Marvel Movie
Release Date: July 13, 2018
Once again – details are very scarce. However, there are rumors that this could be Fox’s “Avengers” type pic, incorporating the X-Men, the Fantastic Four, and Deadpool.
Aquaman
Release Date: July 27, 2018
After an expected debut in Justice League, “Games of Thrones” star Jason Momoa will portray the title character.
Inhumans
Release Date: November 2, 2018
Marvel/Disney will attempt and almost assuredly succeed with this development of a new Guardians/Avengers type franchise. Director/actor announcements will come later.
Shazam
Release Date: April 5, 2019
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson will play the title character in this DC Comic adaptation.
Avengers: Infinity Wars, Part 2
Release Date: May 3, 2019
The continuation of the previous summer’s Marvel blowout – don’t be surprised if this marks the final appearances of Downey Jr’s Iron Man, Chris Evans’s Captain America, and Chris Hemsworth’s Thor. This will be the end of Phase 3 for Disney/Marvel and we’ll have to wait and see what Phase 4 brings.
Justice League, Part 2
Release Date: June 13, 2019
The Batman/Superman/Green Lantern/Flash/Wonder Woman/Aquaman saga rolls on…
Cyborg
Release Date: April 3, 2020
Originating from DC, Warner Bros. will adapt this character with Ray Fisher in the title role. It’s rumored he’ll begin his appearances beginning with 2016’s Batman v. Superman and later Justice League flicks.
Green Lantern
Release Date: June 19, 2020
There was a badly received version starring Ryan Reynolds in 2011. Expect Warner Bros. to ignore that flick while reintroducing the character in Justice League prior to this stand-alone.
And there you have it – that’s a whole lotta superhero action scheduled to come your way over the rest of this decade.
It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.
You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:
Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.
Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)
2. Frozen
Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)
3. Black Nativity
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)
4. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)
5. Homefront
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)
6. The Best Man Holiday
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)
7. The Book Thief
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)
8. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)
9. Free Birds
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
10. Philomena
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)
This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.
I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!
The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:
I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.
The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:
Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $166.7 million
2. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
3. The Best Man Holiday
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. Last Vegas
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)
Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!
Let’s call this upcoming weekend at the box office “the one between the openings of the Thor and Hunger Games sequels” as only one picture debuts. It’s another sequel – The Best Man Holiday, the follow-up to 1999’s The Best Man. I think it will be assured the #2 spot. You can read my prediction post on it here:
Thor: The Dark World should easily remain #1 before The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens the following weekend. I would expect the Marvel megahit to lose over half its business in its sophomore frame. As for other holdovers, I see Free Birds having the smallest drop and remaining in the three spot while comedies Last Vegas and Bad Grandpa fill out the rest of the top five.
And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five box office:
1. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $39.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)
2. The Best Man Holiday
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. Free Birds
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 19%)
4. Last Vegas
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 42%)
I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!
Disney/Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World opened as expected, posting the fourth highest debut of 2013 with $86.1 million. This is right in line with my $85.6M prediction so I’ll give myself a nice pat on the back for this one! Thor benefited from the continued Avengers momentum and the rock solid opening bodes well for next spring’s Captain America sequel.
While I am pleased with my Thor prediction, the same cannot be said for my estimate for About Time, the rom com with Rachel McAdams. I predicted it would earn $12.8 million, but also noted in my post that it could tank. And tank it did with a dismal $5.1 million debut for only 9th place.
As for the rest of the top five, it was Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa second again with $11.3 million (I was right there with $11.2M predicted). The animated Free Birds was in the #3 slot with $11.2 million, just above my $10.4M projection. The all-star comedy Last Vegas was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11M… pat back again). I was, however, off with the performance of Ender’s Game in its sophomore frame. I predicted the sci-fi pic would hold up reasonably well and make $13.6 million. It dropped to #5 with $10.3M. It’s safe to say this one is now a box office disappointment.
And there’s your results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction post on next weekend’s only newcomer, The Best Man Holiday.
The second weekend of November should bring huge results as an Avenger returns in Thor: The Dark World, the sequel to the 2011 hit. Chris Hemsworth is back as the title character along with returnees Natalie Portman, Anthony Hopkins, Rene Russo, and, of course, fan favorite Tom Hiddleston as villainous Loki. TV vet Alan Taylor takes over directing duties from Kenneth Branagh, who moved on to film Jack Ryan.
The original debuted to a strong $65.7 million two and a half years ago, but expectations are understandably higher this time around. Summer 2012 brought us a little movie called The Avengers that broke box office records and increased Thor’s visibility to an even wider audience. The question is: just how high can this pic open?
Conventional estimates are forecasting above $75 million and I would envision Thor easily grabbing that number. A debut in the mid-80s seems most likely though it may land a little lower and (more likely) around $90 million. Reviews have been pretty solid – not that it matters a whole lot. Thor: The Dark World is destined to be a gigantic hit and propel momentum for the next Avengers themed pic coming next spring, the Captain America sequel.
Thor: The Dark World opening weekend prediction: $85.6 million
