Box Office Predictions: July 1-4

The Fourth of July weekend is here at the box office as three new titles make their debuts over the four day frame: Steven Spielberg’s The BFG, horror three-quel The Purge: Election Year, and adventure pic The Legend of Tarzan. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-bfg-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-purge-election-year-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/22/the-legend-of-tarzan-box-office-prediction/

While I have all three earning over $20 million over the long weekend, I don’t expect any of them will manage to top the third weekend of Finding Dory. My estimates reflect a belief that BFG will have a so-so opening, Purge a fairly healthy one albeit under its predecessors, and Tarzan a rather disastrous one.

As for Independence Day: Resurgence in its sophomore weekend, one might think it could hold up well due to… you know, it being Independence Day weekend. I’m not so sure. It had a very lackluster roll out (more on that below) and its weak B Cinemascore grade indicates a rough road ahead.

And with that, my top five predictions (including three and four day projections) for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $35.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Friday to Monday)

2. The BFG

Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.2 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Purge: Election Year

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $25.5 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Independence Day: Resurgence

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $22.8 million (Friday to Monday)

5. The Legend of Tarzan

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $22 million (Friday to Monday)

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (JUNE 24-26)

Finding Dory had no problem whatsoever swimming atop the charts as it grossed $72.9 million in weekend #2, just above my $69.8M projection. The Pixar smash has earned $286 million thus far.

20 years ago, Independence Day ruled the summer of 1996. Its long gestating sequel Resurgence? Not so much as it premiered to just $41 million, way below my $63.5M estimate. Here is yet another summer example of a sequel performing well below expectations and this one classifies as a bonafide bomb.

Central Intelligence held up well in its sophomore weekend with $18.2 million for third, ahead of my $15.2M prediction for a two week total of $69 million.

Blake Lively had a nice weekend as her shark tale The Shallows came in well above expectations at #4 with $16.8 million – lapping my $10.4M forecast. Considering its budget is just a reported $17 million, this is a nice size hit for Mrs. Deadpool.

The Conjuring 2 was fifth with $7.7 million for an $86 million tally. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because the news was not so good for Matthew McConaughey as his critically panned Civil War drama Free State of Jones stalled with $7.5 million in sixth, under my $12.7M prediction.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 24-26

Three new releases populate the final weekend in June as Independence Day: Resurgence, Free State of Jones, and The Shallows all debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/independence-day-resurgence-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/free-state-of-jones-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/15/the-shallows-box-office-prediction/

Let’s get Free State and The Shallows out the way first, as I expect both to open in the low double digits and likely place fourth and fifth. I look for Central Intelligence to lose over half its opening audience, which should place it firmly in third.

The real battle could be for the top spot between current champ Finding Dory and Resurgence. I’m anticipating that Dory won’t quite drop 50%, which gives it the edge in my view.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $69.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

2. Independence Day: Resurgence

Predicted Gross: $63.5 million

3. Central Intelligence

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)

4. Free State of Jones

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. The Shallows

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

Box Office Results (June 17-19)

The Cleveland Cavaliers weren’t the only ones making history this weekend as Disney/Pixar’s Finding Dory had the largest animated debut in box office history with $135 million. This easily swam past my $127.3M prediction and topped the $121 million previous record held by Shrek the Third. The sequel to the 2003 classic provided a much needed boost to a summer that is lagging behind the previous one.

Central Intelligence, as expected, had a sturdy second place debut with $35.5 million, comparable to my $34.1M projection. The debut is in line with recent premieres for costar Kevin Hart and having Dwayne Johnson at his side didn’t hurt.

Holdovers in their sophomore frames held the three-five spots. All experienced precipitous  declines and all came in below my estimates. The Conjuring 2 was third with $14.8 million (I said $20.3M) for a $71 million total. Now You See Me 2 was fourth with $9.3 million (I said $12.5M) for a gross of $41 million. Warcraft was fifth with $7.2 million (I said $8.9M). It’s made $38 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 17-19

Disney/Pixar looks to have their biggest debut ever while Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Kevin Hart team up for an action comedy as Finding Dory and Central Intelligence premiere this weekend. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/finding-dory-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/central-intelligence-box-office-prediction/

My estimates do have that animated fish pulling off Pixar’s largest opening weekend haul with Intelligence performing similarly to Hart’s two last pics, Ride Along 2 and Get Hard.

As for holdovers, I look for current champ The Conjuring 2 to lose about half its audience. Another sequel, Now You See Me 2, should experience a better sophomore hold than Warcraft.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Finding Dory

Predicted Gross: $117.3 million

2. Central Intelligence

Predicted Gross: $34.1 million

3. The Conjuring 2

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Now You See Me 2

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)

5. Warcraft

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 63%)

Box Office Results (June 10-12)

Horror fans turned out for The Conjuring 2 as it debuted on top with $40.4 million, just below my $42.6 million estimate and just under the $41.5 million that the original made in its first weekend in 2013.

The video game based Warcraft managed a pretty minor debut with $24.1 million – though it did barely outdo my $23.3M projection. Mostly scathing reviews and poor word of mouth didn’t help for the mega-budget production, but it is doing well overseas.

Another sequel to a 2013 hit, Now You See Me 2, came in third with $22.3 million. I went just over with a $24.1M forecast. This doesn’t match the $29 million that the first made.

Last weekend’s #1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows slipped to fourth with $14.3 million, on target with my $14.4M prediction for an underwhelming two week tally of $60M.

X-Men: Apocalypse was fifth with $9.9 million (I said $10.4M) for a $136M total and Me Before You was sixth with $9 million (I said $10M) for a gross of $36M.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Central Intelligence Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros. is banking that audiences want to find themselves between a Rock and a Hart Place (get it?) when Central Intelligence opens next weekend. The action comedy is headlined by Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart and hopes to become the first breakout comedy of summer 2016. Rawson Marshall Thurber directs and he’s had success in the genre before with Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story and We’re the Millers. Costars include Amy Ryan and Aaron Paul.

As mentioned, this season so far has not been kind to comedies as Neighbors 2, The Nice Guys, and Popstar have all performed with unimpressive results. The one two punch of Johnson and Hart should be a benefit. Hart’s last two pics, Ride Along 2 and Get Hard, both debuted in the mid-30s. While some of the parents that this film is marketing to might be busy taking their little ones to Finding Dory, I don’t see much reason why this wouldn’t accomplish similar results.

A decent comp could be last summer’s Spy with Melissa McCarthy, which opened to $29 million. I’ll say Central Intelligence manages to outdo it and be more in range with Hart’s recent efforts.

Central Intelligence opening weekend prediction: $34.1 million

For my Finding Dory prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/finding-dory-box-office-prediction/