March 22-24 Box Office Predictions

This weekend at the box office, it’s all about Us – as in Jordan Peele’s critically acclaimed and eagerly awaited follow-up to his breakthrough hit Get Out. It’s the only new wide release before us and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/12/us-box-office-prediction/

I have the horror pic slated for a mid to high 50s debut and that should easily nab it the top spot, knocking Captain Marvel off after two weeks in first. The rest of the top five should be populated by holdovers Wonder Park and Five Feet Apart, which both exceeded expectations in their premieres, as well as How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Us

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million

2. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

3. Wonder Park

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

4. Five Feet Apart

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (March 1517)

Captain Marvel easily held onto first in its sophomore frame with $67.9 million, a touch below my $71.3 million projection. The Marvel blockbuster has amassed $264 million in its first ten days of release.

Animated Wonder Park placed second with $15.8 million, well beyond my $10.3 million prediction. Considering its reported $100 million budget, that’s still nothing spectacular, but it is definitely on the highest end of estimates.

Romantic drama Five Feet Apart was third with $13.1 million, ahead of my $10.7 million forecast. Unlike Wonder Park, the price tag here was a measly $7 million and it nearly doubled that out of the gate.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World was fourth with $9.2 million (I said $9.4 million) for $135 million overall.

I didn’t give Mr. Perry enough credit as A Madea Family Funeral rounded out the top five with $7.8 million compared to my $5.6 million take. The three-week tally is $58 million.

Spanish comedy sequel No Manches Frida 2 was sixth, opening with $3.8 million on under 500 screens. I was close at $3.4 million.

In seventh, the barely publicized alien invasion thriller Captive State took in just $3.1 million (I said $2.8 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Captain Marvel looks to make another giant pot of box office gold in its sophomore frame while a quartet of newcomers could struggle to get noticed. There’s the animated Wonder Park, youthful romantic drama Five Feet Apart, and alien invasion flick Captive State debuting and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/wonder-park-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/five-feet-apart-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/10/captive-state-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting much from the newbies. I didn’t do an individual post for Mexican comedy sequel No Manches Frida 2, which hits the smallest number of screens at around 450. It will likely post the highest per screen average of the premieres and I’ll forecast a $3.4 million debut for sixth place. That’s better than my take on Captive State. It opens in almost five times as many venues, but I’m projecting a measly $2.8 million.

Park and Feet could find themselves in a close battle for second. I’m giving the latter a slight edge. It’s also feasible that How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World could stay in the runner-up spot behind the latest MCU juggernaut.

Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:

1. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $71.3 million

2. Five Feet Apart

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

3. Wonder Park

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (March 1517)

I’ll give myself a little pat on the back with my Captain Marvel prediction as it made $153.4 million and I was just a million off at $154.4 million. That’s a sterling start for Brie Larson’s heroine and I look for this to fall around 53% in its second frame.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World fell to second with $14.6 million. I was a touch higher at $16.6 million. Total is $119 million.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral was third with $12.4 million (I said $11 million) for $46 million overall in two weeks.

The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part made $3.8 million for fourth place. My $3.9 million forecast was right there. It’s nearly at the century mark with $97 million.

Alita: Battle Angel rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $4 million) for $78 million to date.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Captive State Box Office Prediction

Originally slated to open last summer, the sci-fi alien invasion thriller Captive State touches down in theaters next weekend. Rupert Wyatt, best known for 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes, directs. John Goodman (no stranger to extraterrestrial beings as evidenced by 10 Cloverfield Lane) leads a cast that includes Ashton Sanders, Machine Gun Kelly, Alan Ruck, Kiki Layne, and Vera Farmiga.

The Focus Features release seems to be flying far under the radar. Many pics in this sub genre are high-profile releases with massive budgets. This comes with a price tag of only about $25 million. That was probably the catering receipt for War of the Worlds.

That said, I don’t see this recouping its minimal cost during the stateside domestic run. I’ll say this only reaches mid single digits (if it’s lucky) before it lifts off quickly to On Demand status. I’ll say it doesn’t even get there.

Captive State opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my Wonder Park prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/wonder-park-box-office-prediction/

For my Five Feet Apart prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/03/09/five-feet-apart-box-office-prediction/