Box Office Predictions: September 25-27

It could be a highly unpredictable weekend at the box office as three new releases come out and another expands wide. We have Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2, the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern, and long delayed Eli Roth horror pic The Green Inferno. Additionally, Everest expands wide after its impressive roll out on a few hundred IMAX screens this past week. You can find my detailed prediction posts on the three newbies here:

As I see it, Transylvania should really have no trouble winning the weekend, though I have it pegged to gross less than its predecessor did three years ago. I also look for The Intern to have a healthy debut just under the $20M range.

The big question mark is Everest. I think the range of grosses for its wide release premiere could be as low as $12 million to as high as the mid-20s range. Ultimately I think it reaches a gross somewhere in the high teens for a third place showing.

The Green Inferno looks like a flop and my $2.5 million estimate for it leaves it well outside the top five.

As for holdovers, current champ Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials should lose close to half its opening audience while Johnny Depp’s Black Mass may not fall quite that far.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $34.1 million

2. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $19 million

3. Everest

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. Black Mass

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (September 18-20)

YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials got off to a commendable start while not reaching the level its predecessor managed a year. Trials earned $30.3 million, a bit below my $33.8M estimate.

Johnny Depp’s acclaimed Whitney Bulger biopic Black Mass (which is earning Oscar buzz for its star) made $22.6 million out of the gate, below my $27.9M prediction. This is still a nice start and I look for it to continue doing well in subsequent weekends.

M. Night Shyamalan’s The Visit was third in weekend two with $11.5 million, higher than my $9.7M prognostication. The low budget horror title has taken in $42 million so far.

Last weekend’s champ The Perfect Guy dropped to the four spot with $9.6 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate and its two week total stands at $41 million.

The aforementioned Everest was fifth on an IMAX only limited release with $7.2 million, a tad under my $8.6M forecast. Still, its future is looking pretty bright.

Finally, the faith based thriller Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara stalled even worse than I predicted with just $1.3 million for 11th place. I estimated $2.3 million.

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 18-20

Two promising box office prospects hit the multiplexes Friday as YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Johnny Depp gangster flick Black Mass roll out. On a more limited number of screens, the hostage drama Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara will also debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/maze-runner-the-scorch-trials-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/black-mass-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/11/captive-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Maze Runner should debut on top but I think the race could be closer than anticipated. In fact, my prediction on Scorch Trials is a bit lower than some of my fellow prognosticators. I look for Mass to have a healthy start with its positive buzz that includes Oscar nomination talk for Depp. As for Captive, my $2.3 million prediction on it should leave outside the top five.

As for holdovers, both The Perfect Guy and The Visit premiered to impressive results (more on that below). Look for both to experience hefty declines in weekend two, but they’ve both already proven to be huge hits for their studios.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

**Blogger’s note: I have altered my predictions as of Tuesday, September 15th due to my predicted gross of Everest, which debuts on approximately 500 screens IMAX screens only Friday. I feel that’ll be enough to get it in the top five. My full prediction post on Everest will be posted on blog Tuesday evening.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trails

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Black Mass

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

3. The Perfect Guy

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 60%)

4. The Visit

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)

5. Everest

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

Box Office Results (September 11-13)

Thriller The Perfect Guy got off to a great start with $25.8 million over the weekend, outpacing my $21.9M prediction. With a tiny $12 million budget, it managed to double its budget in three days.

M. Night Shyamalan found himself in the position of having a hit once again as The Visit followed closely behind in second with $25.4 million, topping my $17M estimate. With an even tinier budget of $5M budget, it quintupled its meager budget and gave its director his first huge hit since The Village over a decade ago.

Faith based drama War Room dropped to third with $7.7 million, a bit shy of my $8.9M prediction. Its three week total stands at a strong $39M.

A Walk in the Woods dropped to fourth with $4.7 million, falling further my $7.7M forecast and it’s made $20M so far.

I incorrectly didn’t list Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation in my estimates but it took fifth place with $4.1 million to bring its cume to $188M.

That’s because I mistakenly believed another faith based pic, 90 Minutes in Heaven, would perform much stronger than it did. While I had it opening third with $10.5 million, it flopped with just $2 million for a weak ninth place showing. Oops.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Captive Box Office Prediction

This coming Friday, the true life hostage drama Captive enters theaters on a reported screen count of a relatively low 800. The film stars David Oyelowo and Kate Mara (fresh off summer flop Fantastic Four). Captive is centered on the 2005 Atlanta case of Brian Nichols (Oyelowo) and his kidnapping of a young woman (Mara).

I suspect that adult moviegoers will be far more preoccupied with Johnny Depp’s Black Mass for this to gain any momentum at the box office. The low theater count doesn’t bode well either.

As I see it, Captive is likely to struggle to even reach $5 million and might fail to reach half that number. It should be available for VOD viewing in no time.

Captive opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Black Mass prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/black-mass-box-office-prediction/

For my Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/maze-runner-the-scorch-trials-box-office-prediction/

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