Oscar winning director Danny Boyle, who clearly enjoys playing in multiple genres, tries his hand at a musical comedy next weekend with Yesterday. The high concept pic puts forth the theory that only one aspiring songwriter (Himesh Patel) rememberers The Beatles and cashes in on the world’s memory loss. Costars include Lily James, Kate McKinnon, and Ed Sheeran.
Mr. Boyle, as mentioned, has a varied filmography that includes Trainspotting and its sequel, 28DaysLater and its follow-up, Best Picture winner SlumdogMillionaire, and SteveJobs. When Yesterday premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival, its so-so reception killed any potential awards chatter. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 68%.
While there’s legions of Fab Four fans out there, I don’t see this turning into a summer sleeper. I believe this will struggle to reach $10 million.
Yesterday opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million
2019 has seen a number of franchises stumble hard with their sequels and reboots. Yet Warner Bros has one of the sturdiest series in recent memory with the Conjuring Cinematic Universe. Next week brings the third edition of the Annabelle entries and I don’t see fatigue among horror fans happening here.
AnnabelleComesHome marks the directorial debut of Gary Dauberman, who penned both predecessors and last fall’s spin-off TheNun. Mckenna Grace and Madison Iseman star and this time Conjuring leads Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga join the doll party.
As mentioned, this has been a mighty profitable franchise for its studio. After five pictures, the lowest opening belongs to Annabelle: Creation at $35 million two summers ago. However, it legged out better than 2014’s Annabelle ($102 million vs. $84 million). Any thought of the series dwindling was dispelled last fall when TheNun took in $53 million for the best premiere of all.
What might give this Annabelle the lowest debut yet is a matter of logistics. This one opens on Wednesday and that will certainly eat into its traditional weekend haul. I still foresee a high 20s Friday to Sunday gross and high 40s when factoring in the extra two days.
AnnabelleComesHome opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $38 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Note (06/19): and it’s a significant one. Revising my Toy Story 4 estimate down from $191.5 million to $167.5 million.
It’s a toy fest at the box office this weekend as Pixar’s massive franchise and an iconic demonic doll look to populate the 1-2 spots on the charts. ToyStory4 and the reboot of Child’sPlay are the big debuts, as well as Luc Besson’s action thriller Anna. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
The question for the fourth iteration of Woody and Buzz is not whether it opens at #1, but whether or not it sets the all-time opening record for an animated feature. Unlike what we’ve seen in the past few weekends, this should not be a sequel that fails to meet expectations. In order to nab the record, it needs to top Pixar’s Incredibles2 from last summer. That sequel made $182 million out of the gate. I’m predicting ToyStory4 will outdo it by nearly $10 million.
I’m projecting that Child’sPlay will reach high teens and that should be enough to put it in second place. I figure enough horror fans can assist Chucky’s return to multiplexes to get it there (as long as they’re not all holding their money for next week’s AnnabelleComesHome).
The real battle could be for the third position. MeninBlack: International was a major flop. While I don’t see it plummeting over 70% like DarkPhoenix, a mid 50s (and maybe a bit more) dip is certainly feasible. That puts it in a horse race with TheSecretLifeofPets2 and Aladdin, which could benefit from drive-in pairings with ToyStory.
As for Anna, my lowly $3.6 million puts it outside the top five.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $167.5 million
2. Child’sPlay
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
3. MeninBlack: International
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
4. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. TheSecretLifeofPets2
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (June14–16)
While Will Smith’s genie in Aladdin is raking up the bucks, Sony was not granted their wish of a successful franchise reboot with MeninBlack: International. The film opened in first, but with a disappointing $30 million (on target with my $30.7 million projection). Don’t look for Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson to don the shades again – though you’ll probably see them revise their Thor characters again.
TheSecretLifeofPets2 dropped to second with $24.4 million (I said $23.4 million) as it sniffs the century mark at $92 million after two weeks.
Aladdin was third with $17.3 million, topping my $15.7 million forecast. It’s up to $264 million as it should cross $300 million domestically.
Rocketman was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The Elton John biopic took in $9.4 million and it’s at $52 million overall.
After its poor debut, DarkPhoenix tumbled to fifth with $9.3 million. I was more generous at $11.8 million. With just $52 million in ten days, this looks to be the first X-Men entry that won’t reach $100 million stateside.
The sequel and reboot fatigue manifested itself again with Shaft, which flopped in sixth with only $8.9 million, coming in far below my $16.8 million prediction.
LateNight expanded nationwide to so-so results in ninth place with $5.2 million, a touch more than my $4.5 million take.
Finally, zombie comedy TheDeadDon’tDie was 12th on just over 600 screens with $2.5 million compared to my $1.8 million projection.
Luc Besson loves assassins and his latest action thriller Anna features another one in the form of Russian supermodel Sasha Luss. She stars in the reported $30 million budgeted pic with Luke Evans, Helen Mirren, and Cillian Murphy in the supporting cast. As mentioned, the director has played in the genre before with LaFemmeNikita and TheProfessional. His recent filmography includes hits (2014’s Lucy) and big budget flops (2017’s ValerianandtheCityofaThousandPlanets).
Expectations are low here. Its best hope could be for a bountiful European gross. The blockbuster earnings of Lucy were greatly assisted by its lead Scarlett Johansson. No such headliners exist here.
Rolling out on approximately 2150 screens, I think $5 million could even be too high of a mark.
While the iconic products that come to life in Pixar’s ToyStory4 look to dominate the box office next weekend, another cinematic toy and a far more demented one returns to theaters with the reboot of Child’sPlay. Remaking the 1988 cult classic that spawned six sequels, demonic doll Chucky slashes his way back into multiplexes for the first time in almost 15 years. While Brad Dourif voiced Chucky for over three decades, Luke Skywalker himself Mark Hamill now takes over. Aubrey Plaza, Gabriel Bateman, Brian Tyree Henry, and Tim Matheson are among the cast with Lars Klevberg directing.
Despite all the follow-ups, the first Play still remains the highest earner of the franchise at $33 million ($72 million adjusted for inflation). The last two installments of the series (2013’s CurseofChucky and 2017’s CultofChucky) went straight to the On Demand/DVD route. This is the studio’s hope for solid returns at the theatrical level.
1998’s BrideofChucky achieved the biggest opening of them all at $11.8 million. The new Play should be able to top that and I’ll predict a high teens start is where this lands.
Child’sPlay opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
Blogger’s Note (06/19)… and it’s a significant one. Revising my estimate down from to $191.5 million to $167.5 million.
With the release of ToyStory4 next weekend, Pixar should have no problem having the top three animated openings of all time. The big question is whether or not it manages to have the largest so far. The sequel arrives nearly a quarter century after ToyStory kicked off the Disney owned Pixar phenomenon and nearly a decade since ToyStory3. The iconic characters of Woody (Tom Hanks) and Buzz (Tim Allen) return along with the vocal works of Annie Potts, Joan Cusack, Wallace Shawn, John Ratzenberger, Estelle Harris, and the late Don Rickles. New actors joining the party include Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Tony Hale, Christina Hendricks, and Keanu Reeves. Josh Cooley makes his directorial debut.
Each chapter in this cinematic universe has seen its overall domestic gross increase with each entry. Part 3 took in $110 million in its first frame and legged out to $415 million. That predecessor currently has the fifth highest animated start ever. ToyStory4 is in line to easily top that and more.
Last summer’s Incredibles2 nabbed the record for the genre by a wide margin when it took in $182 million. Pixar also holds the #2 spot with 2016’s FindingDory with $135 million. I don’t see Woody and Buzz’s fourth go round having any issue topping that and it could definitely hit the #1 designation.
I’ll say it falls just a manages a few million over the Incredibles sequel for a historic start.
ToyStory4 opening weekend prediction: $167.5 million
A variety of new pictures debut or expand this weekend with franchise reboot MeninBlack: International, another franchise reboot Shaft, critically appreciated comedy LateNight, and not so critically appreciated comedy TheDeadDon’tDie hitting screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
With Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson taking over lead roles from Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones, International hopes to bring in a new generation of alien crime fighter aficionados. Yet this could go the way of last weekend’s DarkPhoenix, which set a franchise low for an opening weekend. I predict that a low 30s haul will achieve that dubious mark, but it should have little difficulty hitting #1.
My mid teens estimate for Shaft should put it in third after the sophomore frame of current champ TheSecretLifeofPets2, which itself suffered from an acute case of sequelitis.
The rest of the top five should be filled by holdovers Aladdin and Phoenix, which I anticipate having a severe drop just like Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters did in its second weekend.
As for LateNight, it had a terrific limited release on just four screens this past weekend, but it could face some difficulties with its 1500 theater release. My $4.5 million forecast puts it outside the top five. Same for TheDeadDon’tDie, which I have at $1.8 million at its approximately 550 theater count.
And with that, my top five estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. MeninBlack: International
Predicted Gross: $30.7 million
2. TheSecretLifeofPets2
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
3. Shaft
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
4. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $15.7 million
5. DarkPhoenix
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
BoxOfficeResults (June7–9)
It was not a good weekend to be a sequel as the two newbies placed 1-2, but with significantly less cash than their predecessors. TheSecretLifeofPets 2 was first with $46.6 million, well under my estimate of $65.2 million. That’s not even half of the $104 million achieved by its 2016 predecessor and with ToyStory4 on the horizon, it could fade quickly.
The X-Men franchise cratered as DarkPhoenix was second with $32.8 million compared to my $45.3 million projection. The previous lowest premiere in the series occurred in 2013 when TheWolverine made $53 million out of the gate. This fell more than $20 million under that. Studio Fox didn’t even bother sugarcoating it… it’s a serious flop. New owner Disney will need to figure out a new way to make this series of characters viable into the future.
Aladdin was third with $24.6 million (I said $26.5 million) for a three-week tally of $232 million.
Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters fell hard in its second frame with $15.4 million, under my $16.9 million prediction. It’s at $78 million.
Rocketman was fifth in its sophomore outing at $13.8 million (I said $14.9 million) for a ten day total of $50 million.
Indie darling Jim Jarmusch gets into the zombie game this weekend with TheDeadDon’tDie. The comedy was selected to open the Cannes Film Festival last month and it comes with an all-star cast that includes Adam Driver, Bill Murray, Selena Gomez, Chloe Sevigny, Steve Buscemi, Tilda Swinton, RZA, Tom Waits, Danny Glover, Caleb Landry Jones, Rosie Perez, and Carol Kane.
Prior to its French debut in May, the pic was looked at as a potential summer sleeper. However, the Cannes buzz has potentially slowed its walk toward box office success. Reviews were very mixed and it currently holds just a 51% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Jarmusch’s largest domestic earner is BrokenFlowers, his 2005 collaboration with Murray. It earned $13 million and is the only title in the director’s catalogue to top $10 million. Audiences dig zombies but with so-so reaction and a smallish theater count of 550, I’m not even certain this will top Flowers.
I’ll predict a sluggish performance for the Dead.
TheDeadDon’tDie opening weekend prediction: $1.8 million
For my MeninBlack: International prediction, click here:
After achieving the highest limited per theater average of 2019, LateNight expands nationwide this weekend and hopes to attract eyeballs outside of major markets. The dramedy first premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to sturdy reviews and it stands at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes. Directed by Nisha Ganatra, the film casts Emma Thompson as a talk show host who hires Mindy Kaling as her first female writer. Kaling wrote the screenplay. The supporting cast includes Max Casella, Hugh Dancy, John Lithgow, Denis O’Hare, Reid Scott, and Amy Ryan.
Over this past weekend, LateNight debuted in four theaters and raked in nearly $250,000. As mentioned, that’s strong enough to set the year’s best rollout for a platform release. Even with that designation, the pic could have issues reaching a mainstream audience. Original comedies have struggled recently and that includes those with positive critical reaction (LongShot being a recent example).
Mid single digits is likely where this ends up as this plays in around 1500 theaters.
LateNight opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million
For my MeninBlack: International prediction, click here:
The third generation of the Shaft family debuts in theaters next weekend with Jessie Usher playing an FBI agent in the action pic. Arriving nearly 50 years after Richard Roundtree played John Shaft and almost two decades after Samuel L. Jackson played his nephew, both actors are present in the newest iteration. Tim Story (maker of the RideAlong pics) directs with a supporting cast including Alexandra Shipp, Regina Hall, and Method Man.
Reportedly made for a smallish $30 million budget, the studio behind Shaft would love to match the $21 million opening weekend debut of the 2000 Jackson led summer flick. Tracking puts in right in that range. However, we’ve seen reboots disappoint in 2019.
I’ll say this gets to mid to high teens and considering the price tag, that’s not too shabby.
Shaft opening weekend prediction: $16.8 million
For my MeninBlack: International prediction, click here:
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