Director Quentin Tarantino and star Leonardo DiCaprio both return to the silver screen for the first time in three and a half years with the release of OnceUponaTimeinHollywood next weekend. Set in the late 1960s, Mr. Tarantino’s latest casts DiCaprio as a washed up TV actor with Brad Pitt as his longtime stunt double. The sprawling supporting players include Margot Robbie as Sharon Tate, Emile Hirsch, Margaret Qualley, Timothy Olyphant, Austin Butler, Dakota Fanning, Bruce Dern, Kurt Russell, Damian Lewis, the late Luke Perry, Damon Herriman, Mike Moh, Zoe Bell, and Al Pacino.
When Hollywood premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May, it did so to reviews expected of its director. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 92% and it could attract Oscar attention. The teaming of DiCaprio (in his first role since his Oscar winning turn in TheRevenant) and Pitt and the many Tarantino followers certainly have given this a high profile.
In order to achieve its maker’s largest all-time three day start, Hollywood would need to top the $38 million made by InglouriousBasterds ten years ago. However, that’s a bit of a misnomer. 2012’s DjangoUnchained opened over Christmas and took in $30 million from Friday to Sunday. Yet it made $63 million over its expanded holiday rollout.
The range here is pretty wide. It’s feasible that Hollywood doesn’t quite reach that high 30s threshold. I think it gets there with a just a few hundred thousand to spare.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood opening weekend prediction: $38.7 million
Disney once again looks to dominate the box office this weekend as TheLionKing stomps into theaters with Spider–Man: FarFromHome and ToyStory4 in the runner-up positions. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the Mouse Factory’s latest live-action rendering of an animated classic here:
TheLionKing could be poised for a top ten all-time debut and my estimate puts in at #8, behind BlackPanther but just ahead of Avengers: AgeofUltron.
Spider–Man, after two impressive weeks on top, should dip to second and lose around 50% of its volume with ToyStory4 in third.
Crawl, after a fair opening, might experience a drop of over 50%. That could put in a battle for fourth with Aladdin. That Disney update may well return to the top five when considering its likely drive-in pairings with the weekend’s champ.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $192.7 million
2. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
3. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
5. Crawl
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (July12–14)
The MCU, as anticipated, had no trouble staying atop the charts as Spider–Man: FarFromHome took in $45.3 million in its sophomore frame. That’s in line with my $43.5 million projection as the sequel now stands at $274 million.
ToyStory4 was second with $20.9 million (I said $20.7 million) for $346 million overall.
Crawl was an interesting case study. The alligator horror flick took in $12 million for third, a bit shy of my $14.2 million take. Considering its reported $13.5 million price tag, that’s a decent result. However, Paramount made a curious choice not screening it for critics and it ended up getting solid reviews. One wonders if the studio had let word of mouth percolate, if the numbers could have been higher.
The other newcomer was the Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista comedy Stuber and it stalled in fourth with just $8.2 million compared to my $10.8 million prediction.
Yesterday rounded out the top five with $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) for $48 million total.
Disney’s live action reimagining of TheLionKing roars into theaters next weekend a quarter century after the classic animated tale. Jon Favreau, who has some experience in the genre with 2016’s $364 million grosser TheJungleBook, directs. The computer animated animal epic features the voices of many recognizable faces. They include Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Beyoncé, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Alfre Woodard, Billy Eichner, John Kani, John Oliver, and James Earl Jones returning as Mufasa.
Expectations are sky high and it’s easy to see why. The Mouse Factory has achieved massive successes in this unique sub genre and have done so very recently. This May’s Aladdin now stands at over $321 million in domestic earnings. The high water mark is from 2017 with BeautyandtheBeast. It opened to $174 million and topped out at $504 million total.
The 1994 original was a phenomenon, taking in $422 million. And that was 25 years ago and would be over $800 million when adjusted for inflation. It still stands as the fourth highest grossing animated feature of all time.
Considering those gaudy numbers, TheLionKing is likely to make a killing and set a new record for the studio’s remakes. $200 million is reachable in my view, but I’ll put it a bit under that.
TheLionKing opening weekend prediction: $192.7 million
The newcomers this weekend are a bit low key and not your weekly dose of wannabe blockbusters as the alligator horror flick Crawl and Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista action comedy Stuber debut. Neither have much of a shot of bitIng into the dominance of Spider–Man: FarFromHome. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Crawl hopes to snag a sizable portion of moviegoers who have recently feasted on shark tales. I think that’ll equate to low to mid teens and third place.
As for Stuber, its rather generic ad campaign and middling reviews may mean it struggles to hit teens. That likely means fourth place.
After a terrific start, FarFromHome should easily hang onto first position. It’s worth noting that predecessor Spider–Man: Homecoming fell a steep 62% in its sophomore outing. While I don’t see this dipping that much, a drop of over 50% seems feasible.
Barring a surprising performance from the fresh players, ToyStory4 will play in second with Yesterday rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $43.6 million
2. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $20.7 million
3. Crawl
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. Stuber
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
5. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (July5–7)
The Marvel Cinematic Universe ruled the long holiday weekend as Spider–Man: FarFromHome kept the gravy train rolling for Disney. Since its debut on Tuesday, the sequel has made $185 million. That’s just a tad under my $190.4 million projection. For the Friday to Sunday traditional frame, it made $92.5 million. My estimate? $92.5 million!!!
ToyStory4 was second at $33.8 million, topping my $28.9 million prediction. In ten days, the Pixar pic crossed the triple century mark at $306 million.
Yesterday displayed a sturdy hold in third with $10 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $36 million.
AnnabelleComesHome was fourth with $9.4 million, a bit more than my $8.1 million take for $49 million overall.
I incorrectly left Aladdin outside the top five, but that’s where it was with $7.5 million. The impressive tally has risen to $320 million.
Finally, acclaimed horror entry Midsommar was sixth with $6.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.9 million since its Wednesday start. That’s below my respective estimates of $7.8 million and $13.2 million.
Arriving two years following his breakout theatrical role in TheBigSick, Kumail Nanjiani stars in Stuber next week. He plays an Uber driver who picks up a detective (Dave Bautista) and becomes embroiled in action comedy shenanigans. Michael Dowse directs with a supporting cast including Iko Uwais, Natalie Morales, Betty Gilpin, Mira Sorvino, and Karen Gillan.
Stuber premiered at the South by Southwest Festival back in March to mixed reaction. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is a middling 47%. That leaves it without the positive word of mouth that greeted Nanjiani’s Sick.
I don’t believe the rather generic looking trailers and TV spots will make this is a must see among many moviegoers. I’ll predict this struggles to even reach low teens.
Kaya Scodelario and Barry Pepper might be the two human headlining actors in Crawl, but it’s a bunch of murderous alligators that are the star attraction. The horror pic takes place after a hurricane with the reptiles terrorizing survivors. Alexandre Aja directs.
Coproduced by Sam Raimi, Crawl would love to bring in the kind of coin that recent shark tales have brought in over recent summers. 2016’s TheShallows made around $16 million for its start and the following year’s 47MetersDown took in just over $11 million.
With a minor reported $17 million budget, Crawl appears set to be a profitable venture for distributor Paramount. I’ll say this manages to come close to its price tag in its first three days of release.
The box office could use some fireworks this weekend and they should come courtesy of the MCU with tomorrow’s release of Spider–Man: FarFromHome. On Wednesday, the critically acclaimed horror pic Midsommar hits the market. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
Spidey will easily dominate the long holiday weekend and I have it slinging nearly $200 million over its six-day rollout with just over $90 million of that coming in the traditional Friday to Sunday frame.
As for Midsommar, I’m a bit more skeptical that a large audience will turn up. I’m putting it at low teens for the five day period with under $10 million for the regular weekend.
ToyStory4 should relinquish the top spot and fall to second place after two weeks in first. Yesterday, after a healthy start, should continue to ride solid word of mouth and remain in third. That would vault it over AnnabelleComesHome in its sophomore outing and that demented doll sequel is likely to duke it out with Midsommar for fourth place.
And with that, my patriotic forecast for the week ahead:
1. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $92.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $190.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
2. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $28.9 million
3. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. AnnabelleComesHome
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Midsommar
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
BoxOfficeResults (June28–30)
ToyStory4 played again atop the charts with $59.7 million, in line with my $60.3 million prediction. The Pixar fourquel stands at $238 million after ten days of release.
AnnabelleComesHome opened in second and with a bit less than anticipated. The Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry took in $20.2 million from Friday to Sunday with $31.1 million since the Wednesday start. That’s less than its predecessors, but not too shabby considering the reported $30 million budget. I went higher with respective projections of $27.4 million and $38 million.
Yesterday had a rocking start in third at $17 million, blowing away my $9.1 million forecast. With a sturdy A- CinemaScore grade, I expect this to stick around for a while.
Aladdin reached the triple century mark ($306 million overall) and was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million).
Finally, TheSecretLifeofPets2 held the five spot with $7.3 million compared to my $5.7 million prediction. Total is $131 million.
Arriving smack dab in Hollywood’s version of midsummer is Ari Aster’s Midsommar next week. The horror pic is the filmmaker’s sophomore effort after his critically acclaimed debut Hereditary from last summer. Centered around a pair of couples who attend a mysterious Swedish festival that occurs every 90 years, the creepy flick stars Florence Pugh, Jack Reynor, William Jackson Harper, and Will Poulter.
Like Hereditary, Aster’s follow-up has garnered strong critical reaction with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 96%. Last June, Hereditary started off with $13.5 million with an eventual $44 million domestic gross. Reviewers liked it more than audiences did and word of mouth suggests that could apply to Midsommar.
It’s out on Wednesday to capitalize on the long July 4th holiday frame. A potential comp could be 2014’s DeliverUsFromEvil, another scary title that opened over the same weekend. Evil took in nearly $10 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday period with $15 million when adding Wednesday and Thursday. I’ll say Midsommar falls a bit under those numbers.
Midsommar opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my Spider–Man: FarFromHome prediction, click here:
Peter Parker’s European vacation goes awry and Marvel looks to have its third massive 2019 blockbuster in a row when Spider–Man: FarFromHome opens next week over a long holiday weekend. The sequel to 2017’s Spider–Man: Homecoming finds Tom Holland returning to the title role after appearing in Avengers: InfinityWar and Avengers: Endgame in between. Jon Watts is back directing with familiar MCU faces Samuel L. Jackson, Cobie Smulders, and Jon Favreau among the cast. Returnees from Homecoming include Zendaya, Marisa Tomei, and Jacob Batalon. Newbies to this cinematic universe are J.B. Smoove and Jake Gyllenhaal as main villain Mysterio.
The sequel should benefit tremendously from the MCU’s hot streak. Endgame and CaptainMarvel stand as the top two grossers of the year so far. Homecoming was well received two summers ago with a $334 million domestic haul. Advance word of mouth is strong.
Spidey flicks have a history of debuting over the July 4th frame. 2004’s Spider–Man2 also had a six-day rollout and earned $180 million in that time frame. Same goes for 2012’s reboot TheAmazingSpider–Man with $137 million from Tuesday to Sunday.
FarFromHome gets underway on Tuesday and I believe earnings approaching $200 million is doable. I’ll say this manages a bit under $100 million from the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with just under the double century mark over the holiday.
Spider-Man: Far From Home opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $190.4 million
Another creepy doll looks to hit the runner-up spot while ToyStory4 stays in first place this weekend as Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry AnnabelleComesHome debuts. We also have the high concept musical comedy Yesterday out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newcomers here:
It seems awfully risky in the summer of 2019 to project that a sequel will come close to meeting expectations. Not even ToyStory4 managed to do that (more on that below), but that’s where I’m at by saying Annabelle will gross in the high 20s for its Friday to Sunday earnings and high 30s when taking in the Wednesday and Thursday money.
As mentioned, Pixar’s fourth pairing of Woody and Buzz should have no trouble maintaining top position. ToyStory3 dipped 46% in its sophomore frame and I look for this to lose around half its volume.
Yesterday, in my view, once had breakout potential. However, so-so reviews don’t help. My estimate for The Beatles themed pic puts it just behind Aladdin in fourth place. TheSecretLifeofPets2 may stay put in fifth as I figure the drops for Child’sPlay and MeninBlack: International will be more severe.
And with that, my top five for the weekend:
1. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $60.3 million
2. AnnabelleComesHome
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $38 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
4. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
5. TheSecretLifeofPets2
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
BoxOfficeResults (June21–23)
Pixar scored yet another hit with ToyStory4. Yet the acclaimed sequel (arriving nine years after part three) unquestionably made less than anticipated at $120.9 million. While that’s $10 million over its predecessor, that’s a far cry from my $167.5 million forecast. And even if you think I was being generous, the floor for most projections was around $140 million. I wouldn’t feel too bad for Disney as they’re having a terrific year thus far.
The return of Chucky was met with ambivalence as Child’sPlay was second with $14 million compared to my $17.6 million prediction. Look for it to fade fast, especially with that other dastardly doll arriving Wednesday. The reboot only cost a reported $10 million to make so United Artists shouldn’t be too upset either.
Aladdin was third with $13.2 million (I said $13 million) and it’s up to $288 million in the coffers.
MeninBlack: International tumbled from first to fourth with $10.7 million, below my $13.1 million projection for just $52 million. This reboot, like DarkPhoenix before it, looks to come in under $100 million domestically.
TheSecretLifeofPets2 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million. I was higher at $12.6 million. The three-week tally is $117 million.
Finally, the Luc Besson action thriller Anna was a flop in ninth with $3.6 million. My prediction? $3.6 million! That almost makes up for being $40 million plus off ToyStory4! Ok maybe not…
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