The survival thriller Fall opens on approximately 1200 screens on August 12th. Directed by Scott Mann (best known for the Dave Bautista/Pierce Brosnan 2018 action flick Final Score), the climbing tale’s cast includes Grace Caroline Currey, Virginia Gardner, Mason Gooding, and Jeffrey Dean Morgan.
A Lionsgate release, Fall‘s promotion seems to be non-existent. This is a prime example of a mid-August release where the studio seems to have zero confidence. I’m a little surprised it’s even hitting theaters.
The aforementioned Score couldn’t even clear a million dollars at the box office though it never approached 1200 venues. Fall may struggle to average over $1,000 per screen upon release. This may not reach $1 million in the first three days, but I’ll put it just past that.
Fall opening weekend prediction: $1.2 million
For my Bodies Bodies Bodies prediction, click here:
The slasher satire Bodies Bodies Bodies opened in six theaters exclusive to New York and L.A. yesterday and it appears to be doing brisk business. From director Halina Reijn, the A24 pic (sporting a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes) stars Amandla Stenberg, Maria Bakalova, Myha’la Herrold, Chase Sui Wonders, Rachel Sennott, Lee Pace, and Pete Davidson (who’s in the news this weekend due to his reported breakup with Kim Kardashian).
Early reports have Bodies laying down an approximate $240-250k gross for its coastal limited release. That equates to roughly a $40k per theater average and that’s impressive.
Whether that translates to a sizable rollout next weekend when it grows to around 1200 screens is a murkier question. Performing well in America’s two largest cities is one thing while nabbing eyeballs in the heartland and elsewhere is another.
My hunch is that this won’t quite hit $5 million in the expansion on August 12th, but it could have the capacity to surprise.
Bodies Bodies Bodies (wide) opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
Diane Keaton headlines the comedy Mack & Rita as the Gravitas Venture title hopes to bring in a female crowd in these late summer box office dog days. Out August 12th, costar Elizabeth Lail is magically transformed into her older self who is played by the legendary Oscar winner. Katie Aselton, who appeared in Keaton’s 2018 hit Book Club, directs and the supporting cast includes Taylour Paige, Simon Rex, Loretta Devine, and Wendie Malick.
The studio would love a Book Club size gross. It delivered just shy of $70 million and a sequel is coming in May 2023. That appears highly unlikely as Rita seems to be flying well under the radar. I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my projection. I suspect this will be lucky to earn what Keaton’s 2019 dud Poms accomplished which was $5.4 million out of the gate. This may be lucky earn about half of that figure.
Mack & Rita opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
For my Bodies Bodies Bodies prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (08/03): My projection for Easter Sunday has taken a downward turn. Instead of $8.2M, I’m now only projecting $5.6M and that puts it outside of the top five – with Minions: The Rise of Gru now getting the 5 spot.
Brad Pitt looks to conduct Bullet Train to a sizeable debut while the Jo Koy comedy Easter Sunday looks be a sleeper hit. They are the newbies as August dawns at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
There’s no question that Train (from John Wick maker David Leitch) will hit #1. It’s all about by how much. Some estimates have this in the $40 million range, but I’m skeptical. In the last couple of weekends, both Nope and DC League of Super-Pets have come in under expectations (more on those developments below).
While Pitt certainly has star power, I feel like buzz needs to pick up and fast for this to reach $40 million. Perhaps my projections will rise before Thursday evening. For now, I have Bullet a shade under $30 million.
As for current champ Super-Pets, a dip in the mid to high 30s seems likely and that should place it firmly as the runner-up.
The truly interesting competition could be for the #3 slot. Easter Sunday could surprise and vastly overperform and end up #2. Or it could be outside of the top five with below $8 million. I’m putting at $8.2 million in its basket and here’s where it could be awfully close. If Nope has another plummet close to 60% and Thor: Love and Thunder sees a mid to high 30s drop, the grosses for the trio could be separated by basically nothing.
That’s what I’m thinking will occur and here’s how I think the top 5 ends up looking:
1. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $29.7 million
2. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
4. Nope
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (July 29-31)
The Warner Animation Group won’t be barking loudly about the earnings of DC League of Super-Pets as it came in the very low end of its range. With a muted $23 million, the animated superhero canine teaming of Kevin Hart and Dwayne Johnson is a disappointment (coming in well under my $33.6 million prediction). The only silver lining could be lack of competition for the month. That could mean meager declines until the bulk of kiddos go back to school.
Nope, as anticipated with its lackluster B Cinemascore grade, cratered in its sophomore frame with $18.5 million (a smidge ahead of my $17.5 million projection). Jordan Peele’s sci-fi horror tale is up to $80 million, though it will come in well under his predecessors Get Out and Us.
Thor: Love and Thunder was third with $13.1 million, besting my take of $11.4 million. The MCU four-quel has hammered home $301 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru took fourth at $10.9 million (I said $10.3 million) to brings it haul to $320 million.
Top Gun: Maverick rounded out the top five at $8.4 million, right on target with my $8.3 million guesstimate. The airborne phenomenon achieved another milestone at $650 million. It will soon become the 7th largest domestic earner in history when it vaults over Titanic ($659 million) and Jurassic World ($652 million).
Finally, When the Crawdads Sing held up solidly in weekend #3 with $7.5 million (I went with $6.9 million). The mystery based on a bestseller is past the half century mark with $53 million.
Blogger’s Update (08/03): I am revising my projection downward from $8.2M to $5.6M as buzz for Easter Sunday simply hasn’t seemed to pick up since last week.
If it’s early August, it must be Easter Sunday at the box office! Not so much, but that’s the title of the upcoming comedy out August 5th. The film serves as the first major cinematic starring vehicle for Jo Koy, known for his Netflix standup specials. Jay Chandrasekhar, a member of the Broken Lizard troupe that helmed Super Troopers and its sequel, directs. Costars include Jimmy O. Yang, Tia Carrere, Brandon Wardell, Tiffany Haddish, and Lou Diamond Phillips.
Playing a struggling comedian visiting the family for the holiday, Sunday is hoping to book a diverse audience. Koy’s Filipino roots could bring in a demographic underserved at multiplexes.
Early prognoses have this getting past double digits by a slim margin. That sounds doable to me and it could even have the capacity to go higher. I could also see it falling just under that and there’s where I’m currently at.
Easter Sunday opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
Sony Pictures is hoping moviegoers catch the Bullet Train when it debuts August 5th. The action comedy comes from John Wick maker David Leitch with Brad Pitt headlining as an assassin. The supporting cast includes Joey King, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Brian Tyree Henry, Andrew Koji, Hiroyuki Sanada, Michael Shannon, Zazie Beetz, Logan Lerman, Bad Bunny, and Pitt’s recent The Lost City costar Sandra Bullock (in a role first slated for Lady Gaga).
The Japan set stunt fest is hoping to turn out an adult audience ready for original programming in a summer filled mostly with plenty of sequels and superheroes.
Since starting a franchise with Wick in 2014, Leitch followed up with Atomic Blonde. It was a box office disappointment that debuted with just over $18 million. Train should have no trouble getting past that number. However, it won’t reach the earnings of his last two pictures which were built-in franchise entries: Deadpool 2 and Fast and Furious spin-off Hobbs & Shaw.
Nope was able to reach mid 40s and it had the advantage of Jordan Peele’s brand. This will rely mostly on Pitt’s star power. I’m curious to see how word-of-mouth is in the coming days and that could increase or decrease my projection. My hunch is that mid 2os is the floor and low 40s could be the ceiling. I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes toward the lower end of that spectrum, and I’ll say high 20s to low 30s is where this lands.
Bullet Train opening weekend prediction: $29.7 million
Blogger’s Note (07/27): I am revising my Super-Pets estimate down considerably- from $42.6M to $33.6M
DC League of Super-Pets should have no trouble hitting the top spot as July closes out at the box office. It’s the only wide new offering coming to multiplexes and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My low to mid 40s projection puts the animated comedic adventure reuniting Kevin Hart and Dwayne Johnson in the same range with where Jordan Peele’s Nope premiered this past weekend.
There’s more on that Nope debut below, but it could be headed for a sophomore fall in the mid to upper 50s. Considering its weak B Cinemascore grade, it’s not out of the question that it could plummet even farther. We could see a close race for the #3 position between Thor: Love and Thunder and Minions: The Rise of Gru, depending on how far each title drops. The former is likely to see a larger decline. However, Super-Pets being out could cause Gru to have a heftier dip than its meager mid 30s decline last weekend. Top Gun: Maverick could hold the #5 slot with Where the Crawdads Sing falling to sixth place.
Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:
1. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $33.6 million
2. Nope
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million
3. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
4. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
5. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
6. Where the Crawdads Sing
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (July 22-24)
As mentioned previously, Nope started out on the lower end of expectations with $44.3 million. That’s under my call of $53.2 million and there were estimates that it would surpass my projection. While the sci-fi horror pic may end up turning a profit, Peele’s third outing opened nearly $30 million below his predecessor Us (which benefited by being the auteur’s follow-up to the unexpected smash Get Out). Word-of-mouth is not strong and that’s why you see me projecting a nearly 60% sophomore drop above.
Thor: Love and Thunder was runner-up after two weeks in first. Its $22.5 million gross is right on target with my take of $22.4 million as the MCU fourquel has hammered home $276 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru took third with $18 million (I was close with $17 million) for a four-week tally of $298 million.
Where the Crawdads Sing had a solid hold in weekend #2 with $10.3 million, just ahead of my $9.5 million prediction. The ten-day earnings are $38 million.
Top Gun: Maverick was in the five spot with $10.2 million (I said $9.8 million). The overall $635 million haul is now 9th all-time as it just flew ahead of 2012’s The Avengers.
Blogger’s Note (07/27): I am revising my estimate down considerably- from $42.6M to $33.6M
Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart already share a successful cinematic history via Central Intelligence and the Jumanji franchise. On July 29th, they reunite to respectively provide the voices of Superman and Batman’s canine companions in the animated DC League of Super-Pets. The Warner Animation Group superhero tale (or rather… tail?) is directed by Jared Stern, who did work on the studio’s The Lego Batman Movie and The Lego Ninjago Movie. John Krasinski voices the Man of Steel while Keanu Reeves does so for the Caped Crusader. Other familiar names contributing vocal work are Kate McKinnon, Vanessa Bayer, Natasha Lyonne, Diego Luna, Thomas Middleditch, Ben Schwartz, Marc Maron, and Olivia Wilde.
The Legion of Super-Pets from the DC Comics dates all the way to 1962 and their connection to their iconic masters could get plenty of kids to the multiplexes. It might even get their parents slightly interested. The summer of 2022 has been unpredictable when it comes to animated features. Lightyear was a rare disappointment for Disney/Pixar and Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank outright bombed last weekend. On the other hand, Minions: The Rise of Gru was a massive hit that’s currently rising to a $300 million plus domestic haul. The Bad Guys was also a solid performer in the spring.
So what league will this premiere in? Estimates have it in the $40-50 million range. I see no reason why it would greatly exceed or fall short of expectations. I’m thinking it starts in the low to mid 40s though getting above $50 million is certainly doable.
DC League of Super-Pets opening weekend prediction: $33.6 million
Blogger’s Update (07/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my Nope prediction slightly from $49.2M to $53.2M
Jordan Peele’s Nope should make it a hat trick for the director’s titles opening at #1. The only newcomer arriving in multiplexes this weekend, you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Most estimates have the supernatural horror tale debuting between $40-60 million. I’m putting it right in the middle of that range, but reserving the right to revise when the buzz and reviews materialize throughout the week. If anything, I could see it moving up.
As for holdovers, Thor: Love and Thunder should drop to second after two weeks. The MCU fourquel experienced a significant tumble in its sophomore frame (more on that below). It should stabilize some in its third outing with a drop in the late 40s to low 50s.
Minions: The Rise of Gru is likely to fall one slot to third while the 4-5 could be interesting. It’s all about the second weekend percentage dip for Where the Crawdads Sing, which had a solid start. I’m projecting mid 40s and that could allow Top Gun: Maverick to narrowly remain in fourth if it only sees a 20% or lower decrease.
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out:
1. Nope
Predicted Gross: $53.2 million
2. Thor: Love and Thunder
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
3. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $17 million
4. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. Where the Crawdads Sing
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
Box Office Results (July 15-17)
As anticipated, Thor: Love and Thunder remained atop the charts for a second frame. It was hammered a bit with a precipitous sophomore drop. Grossing $46.6 million (under my $50.2 million estimate), that’s a 68% decline and that’s a touch more than the 67% of MCU predecessor Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. The ten-day earnings are $233 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was runner-up with $26.8 million, rising above my $23.1 million prediction. It’s up to an impressive $263 million with north of $300 million easily in its sights and then some.
Where the Crawdads Sing, based on a huge bestseller, satisfied an older and female crowd with $17.2 million out of the gate. While falling shy of my $18.7 million projection, it’s still a commendable start.
Top Gun: Maverick was fourth with $12.2 million (I said $10.9 million) as the phenomenon has reached $618 million in eight weeks.
Elvis was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside of the top five. The biopic added $8 million to its coffers as it passed the century mark with $106 million.
The animated Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hawk couldn’t find its family audience. Placing sixth with a piddly $6.3 million (well below my $10.5 million take), it got lost in the summer shuffle between Minions and the upcoming DC League of Super-Pets.
Finally, critically appreciated Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (on a low number of 980 screens) made a so-so $1.9 million for ninth place. Paris didn’t quite reach my prediction of $2.3 million.
Blogger’s Update (07/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my Nope prediction slightly from $49.2M to $53.2M
Five years after his first feature Get Out was a critical and box office phenomenon, Universal is hoping audiences say yep to Jordan Peele’s Nope on July 22nd. The plot for the sci-fi horror tale is pretty successfully being kept under wraps. Based on the footage, it appears to involve cowboys and aliens. Daniel Kaluuya (who rose to stardom in Get Out) headlines alongside Keke Palmer, Steven Yeun, Brandon Perea, and Michael Wincott.
In the spring of 2017, Peele’s debut rode a wave of buzz to a $33 million opening and eventually legged out to $176 million domestically. His 2019 follow-up Us was breathlessly awaited based on the Out appreciation. It got off to a $71 million start. However, it was not nearly as universally beloved by moviegoers. Us‘s legs were less sturdy and it actually grossed $1 million less than Out at $175 million.
The trailers and TV spots for Nope have keyed in on the Peele participation. That strategy worked for Us (especially the opening). Will it matter less this time around? Probably. Us had the advantage of following its predecessor by only two years. We’ve waited almost three and a half years for Peele’s third genre excursion.
As I write this post, we have yet to see reviews. That could cause my initial projection to rise or fall. I am rather confident that Nope won’t reach Us levels as far as the debut weekend. Estimates have this generating between $40-$60 million and that seems right. At press time, I’m thinking the $50 million mark seems doable. I’ll put it just a touch under with the possibility of revision possible.
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