Tag: Box Office

Avatar: The Way of Water Box Office Prediction

Hollywood looks to be awoken from its box office slumber when Avatar: The Way of Water surfaces on December 16th. After plenty of delays in the release date, James Cameron’s sequel to his 2009 record breaking phenomenon comes with a reported budget in the neighborhood of $400 million. Clocking in at 3 hours and 12 minutes, the 3D sci-fi epic is the only newcomer on the pre-Christmas weekend and it should dominate the marketplace. Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, Stephen Lang, Joel David Moore, CCH Pounder, Giovanni Ribisi, Dileep Rao, and Matt Gerald reprise their roles from part 1. Joining the Pandora universe for the first time are Kate Winslet, Cliff Curtis, Edie Falco, Jermaine Clement, and Brandon Cowell. Sigourney Weaver appears in a different part from 13 years ago.

It’s dangerous to underestimate Cameron. This is only his third feature in a quarter century. 1997’s Titanic withstood shaky buzz during its filming and became the highest grossing film of all time. That record stood for 12 years until it was broken by (you guessed it) Avatar, which also had troubling word-of-mouth until it didn’t. With $785 million domestically (which includes a September re-release which did impressive business), Avatar still ranks fourth all-time stateside behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avengers: Endgame, and Spider-Man: No Way Home. The international tally is $2.1 billion and that ranks as #1.

There are legitimate questions as to the sequel’s potency. 13 years is a long time between entries. Are younger viewers excited for a trip back to the planet with all the blue people? Disney and 20th Century Studios need this to make a splash as a third Avatar arrives in two years with fourth and fifth (and possibly more) editions planned.

One number is easy to know. The Way of Water will have no problem dwarfing the $77 million that Avatar made for its debut before it became the must-see picture for months. It was #1 for 7 weeks. The sequel is expected to take in double that figure with $160 million generally being considered the floor. The ceiling could be $200 million (and perhaps higher) though its length could hinder that possibility. There’s also some older moviegoers who may not feel the need to rush out opening weekend to view it.

I believe $175-185 million is likely for the Sully family as they land in theaters once again. My projection gives it the 14th biggest domestic premiere of all time between Iron Man 3 and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. That’s also the 3rd largest opening haul of 2022 behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.

Avatar: The Way of Water opening weekend prediction: $173.1 million

December 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Audiences weren’t digging the leftovers in the first frame of December and it’ll get even worse this weekend. The top 5 could look awfully familiar with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on top for a fifth time before Avatar: The Way of Water looks to liven up multiplexes beginning December 16th.

There are only two semi-wide newcomers to speak of and I didn’t do individual prediction posts on either. Father Stu: Reborn is a recut version of this spring’s true life drama with Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson. It earned a not so heavenly but not terrible $20 million a few months back. This version is PG-13 and not R. I don’t believe it’ll clear $1 million and that puts it outside the top five.

Spoiler Alert, another true life drama and this one featuring Jim Parsons, expands to approximately 600 venues after opening in six theaters this past weekend. It might be lucky to hit a million and that would leave it outside the top five too.

There’s a small chance that Violent Night, the Santa shoot-em-up with David Harbour, could elevate to 1st place after a decent debut (more on that below). However, Black Panther : Wakanda Forever should manage to make it five in a row before James Cameron’s sequel hits.

Meanwhile the battle for third could be close between the third weekend of Disney dud Strange World and the fourth helping of The Menu.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

2. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

3. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

4. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

5. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $1.7 million

Box Office Results (December 2-4)

MCU sequel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made it four in a row with $17.5 million. That’s under my projection of $21.3 million as the 62% fall was rather steep considering the lack of competition. The total did rise to $393 million.

Violent Night dropped at the higher end of its range with $13.4 million, outpacing my $9.4 million take. The grisly Yuletide tale could manage to play well over the coming holidays.

Strange World continued the embarrassing returns for the Mouse Factory with only $5 million in its sophomore weekend. I was close with $5.2 million. That’s a mere $25 million in its first 12 days.

The Menu was fourth with $3.4 million (I said $3.1 million) as it’s made $24 million thus far.

Devotion had a turbulent 54% plummet in weekend #2 with $2.7 million. I estimated a bit more at $3.3 million. Overall gross is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 2-4 Box Office Predictions

After a historically weak Thanksgiving frame that left moviegoers hungry for other options, the first weekend of December should be rather quiet at multiplexes as well. The lone wide release is Violent Night with David Harbour as a gun toting Santa. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Violent Night Box Office Prediction

Night, even though I have it falling under $10 million, should slide into the runner-up position behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The MCU sequel looks to four-peat and should have no trouble doing so. A low to mid 50s drop would put it over $20 million. It’s likely to be #1 for five weekends until Avatar: The Way of Water arrives on December 16th.

After a disastrous opening (more on that below), Strange World should fall to third. With a weak B Cinemascore grade, the Disney animated flop could experience a plummet in the mid to high 50s. Who knows? Maybe even higher.

The four and five spots could be close between the second and third frames of Devotion and The Menu. Both should see dips in the mid 40s.

Here’s how I see the top 5 looking:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

2. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

4. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

5. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

Box Office Results (Thanksgiving Weekend)

The Turkey Day holiday didn’t bring in the masses as the weekend fell under $100 million. That’s despite plenty of new releases for crowds to chew on.

Strangely enough, the biggest winner belonged to a streamer. Netflix doesn’t officially report numbers. They put Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, the acclaimed sequel to 2019’s blockbuster, on just under 700 screens. Word is out that it did approximately $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $13.3 million since the Wednesday start. That per theater average of over $13k is easily the best of the bunch. Onion is scheduled to leave its venues tomorrow before it hits Netflix on December 23rd.

Now back to the movies that do report official tallies. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever easily stayed atop the charts with $45.5 million, besting my $37.9 million prediction in weekend #3. The 17-day total is $367 million.

The story of the holiday was the dismal Strange World performance. The Mouse Factory had a disappointing result over the summer with Lightyear. This made it look like a phenomenon. World took in an embarrassing $12.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $18.8 million in the five-day. I said it would manage $19.3 million and $26.7 million, respectively. Simply put, Disney animated efforts aren’t supposed to do those anemic figures.

I suppose technically Glass Onion was third, so the war saga Devotion was fourth. Despite mostly decent reviews, it was a flop considering the reported $90 million budget. The Friday to Sunday take was $5.9 million with $9 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. I went higher with $7.2 million and $10.7 million.

The Menu rounded out the top five at $5.4 million (I said $6.4 million) to bring the two-week gross to $18 million.

Black Adam was sixth with $3.2 million, on target with my $3.3 million prediction. Total is $162 million.

Steven Spielberg’s awards hopeful The Fabelmans was on 638 screens and was seventh with $2.2 million ($3.1 million for the five-day). That’s under my guesstimates of $2.8 million and $4.1 million. While that’s easily the second best average of the newbies (after Onion), it’s still not too impressive. It will hope to develop legs during awards season.

The cannibalistic romance Bones and All wasn’t a recipe for success with an 8th place showing. The $2.2 million and $3.6 million three and five day earnings couldn’t match my $3.5 and $5.3 million projections.

Ticket to Paradise was ninth with $1.8 million (I went with $2.3 million) as the rom com is up to $65 million.

Fathom Event The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 was 10th as it dove 81% to $1.5 million. I was more giving at $2.4 million. In ten days, it’s made $13 million.

Finally, She Said was 11th after its poor premiere last weekend. With $1.1 million (I said $1.6 million), it’s at a lowly $4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Violent Night Box Office Prediction

If Mel Gibson in 2020’s Fatman didn’t satiate your desire to see Kris Kringle toting semiautomatic weapons, we’ve got Violent Night sliding into theaters on December 2nd. David Harbour of Stranger Things fame is Santa in the satiric action pic from director Tommy Wirkola. Supporting players include John Leguizamo (currently appearing in The Menu), Cam Gigandet, Alex Hassell, Alexis Louder, and Beverly D’Angelo (already a holiday silver screen staple thanks to Christmas Vacation).

Universal is hoping audiences want a little comedic savagery in their Yuletide viewing plans. Harbour hasn’t had a big screen breakout. In fact, it’s quite the opposite as 2019’s Hellboy was a dud (he did turn up in last year’s MCU blockbuster Black Widow).

The best case scenario would be a premiere approaching 2015’s Krampus, which rolled out on the same December weekend. It made just over $16 million and eventually topped out at $42 million domestically. I don’t anticipate that kind of showing for Violent Night. There’s a chance it won’t even reach double digits. I’ll put it a hair under.

Violent Night opening weekend prediction: $9.4 million

November 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood is hoping audiences mix a trip to the multiplex in their holiday plans. We have a slew of new releases, but it should be a three-week old leftover topping the Turkey weekend charts. Disney’s animated Strange World, aerial adventure Devotion, cannibalistic romance Bones and All, and Steven Spielberg’s coming-of-age awards hopeful The Fabelmans all debut or expand. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Strange World Box Office Prediction
Devotion Box Office Prediction
Bones and All Box Office Prediction
The Fabelmans Box Office Prediction

Let’s begin with a title you don’t see. Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is the eagerly awaited and well-reviewed follow-up to Knives Out, which opened over the same holiday three years ago. Netflix is the distributor and it will be before our streaming eyes for Christmas. Onion is hitting approximately 600 venues for a sneak preview from Wednesday to Sunday. It is not expected that Netflix will report its financials. That’s why you won’t find it in the top 10. If they do end up deciding to do so, I imagine it’ll do quite well (and be either third or fourth).

Back to movies where we expect box office grosses! Strange World is the Mouse Factory’s latest animated offering to be unveiled over Thanksgiving. Yet the marketing campaign has been weak. My high teens three-day and mid 20s five-day is very subpar for the studio. On the bright side, they’ll certainly have numbers 1-2 as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever should three-peat with a drop in the low 40s range.

Devotion could over perform if enough older moviegoers check in. I have it settling for a so-so third place in the high single digits for the traditional frame and low double digits for the Wednesday to Sunday portion.

The Menu should be fourth after an appetizing start (more on that below). I think it’ll only fall in the high 20s or low 30s for the sophomore outing. Bones and All could round out the top five. Its gory subject matter could prevent crowds from perusing its gruesome menu.

Spielberg’s The Fabelmans is out on just 600 screens. That limits the potential and I have a gut feeling it may fall short of expectations anyway. I have it pegged for 7th place as it hopes that Oscar buzz improves its earnings in later weekends.

Here’s how I envision the top 10 looking with 3 and 5 day estimates for the newcomers:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $37.9 million

2. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

4. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Bones and All

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. Black Adam

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

7. The Fabelmans

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

8. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

9. Ticket to Paradise

Predicted Gross: $2.3 million

10. She Said

Predicted Gross: $1.6 million

Box Office Results (November 18-20)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever didn’t quite drop as far as MCU predecessors Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness or Thor: Love and Thunder, but it was still a steep decline. The sequel to 2018’s phenomenon slid 63% in weekend 2 with $66.4 million, under my $70.3 million projection. The ten-day tally is $287 million.

The Menu was the rare pic for the grown-ups that performed admirably. The culinary satire was runner-up with $9 million, a bit ahead of my $8.2 million prediction. Look for it for to hold well over Thanksgiving.

The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 had its core audience believing as the Fathom Events experience was third with $8.7 million (topping my $7.5 million estimate). Last December, Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers had a 71% plummet in its second weekend. Expect similar results here.

Black Adam was fourth with $4.6 million (I said $5.3 million) as the superhero pic is up to $157 million after four weeks.

Ticket to Paradise rounded out the top five at $3.1 million, below my $4.1 million prediction. The rom com has grossed $61 million.

Finally, She Said was a dud. Focused on the journalistic journey to expose Harvey Weinstein, it was a quiet sixth at $2.2 million. I went with $3.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Have a Happy Thanksgiving!!

The Fabelmans Box Office Prediction

Drawing on his own upbringing, Steven Spielberg’s coming-of-age drama The Fabelmans opens semi-wide over the long Turkey Day frame. After its September premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, the film has been seen as a major Oscar contender with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 94%. Newcomer Gabriel LaBelle (essentially playing young Spielberg), Michelle Williams, Paul Dano, Seth Rogen, Judd Hirsch, and Julia Butters are among the ensemble.

The ode to family and cinema debuted November 11th on four screens with a fair though not impressive $40,000 per theaters average. That’s a little under what fellow awards hopeful The Banshees of Inisherin made in the same amount of venues a few weeks back.

Spielberg’s most personal work to date expands to approximately 600 screens on Wednesday, November 23rd. That meager count could mean a floor as low as $2 million for the three-day and $3 million for the five-day (if it goes any lower that would be considered a massive flop). A rosier picture could mean $5-6 million for Friday to Sunday and higher single digits when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.

My gut says to be on the lower end of that scale as it’ll hope for solid holds throughout the holidays.

The Fabelmans opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Strange World prediction, click here:

Strange World Box Office Prediction

For my Devotion prediction, click here:

Devotion Box Office Prediction

For my Bones and All prediction, click here:

Bones and All Box Office Prediction

Bones and All Box Office Prediction

MGM/UA hopes younger viewers are hungry for some cannibal love when Bones and All opens wide on Wednesday, November 23rd. Based on a 2015 novel by Camille DeAngelis, Taylor Russell and Timothee Chalamet headline the road flick from director Luca Guadagnino. Costars include Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, Andre Holland, Chloe Sevigny, David Gordon Green, and Jessica Harper.

The subject matter could be a challenging one for holiday crowds though Chalamet has a rabid fanbase that could turn up. The Thanksgiving release (it’s out five screens November 18 before the expansion) is also the only holiday newbie geared toward teens and young adults. Strange World is for the kids while Devotion and The Fabelmans skew older. Reviews are pretty appetizing with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score following its September debut at the Venice Film Festival.

With a reported count of around 2500 venues, I’ll say Bones gets to mid single digits for the three-day and for the five.

Bones and All opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Strange World prediction, click here:

Strange World Box Office Prediction

For my Devotion prediction, click here:

Devotion Box Office Prediction

For my The Fabelmans prediction, click here:

The Fabelmans Box Office Prediction

Devotion Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping Thanksgiving moviegoers fly with Devotion when it opens Wednesday, November 23rd. The true life tale of Korean War fighter pilots stars Jonathan Majors, Glen Powell, Joe Jonas, and Christina Jackson. J.D. Dillard directs the reported $90 million production.

Reviews were decent after it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival in September. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 85%. The pic hopes to bring in an older audience for the long holiday frame. It could help that Top Gun: Maverick and its naval storyline is the biggest blockbuster of 2022. There could be a carryover effect and it might not hurt that Powell (who played Hangman in Maverick) is in this.

That said, Devotion isn’t a sequel to an iconic 80s film and Tom Cruise is nowhere to be found in the cockpit. Considering the budget, this seems on course to flop. I’ll project the Friday to Sunday earnings fall under $10 million with the five-day in the lower teens.

Devotion opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Strange World prediction, click here:

Strange World Box Office Prediction

For my Bones and All prediction, click here:

Bones and All Box Office Prediction

For my The Fabelmans prediction, click here:

The Fabelmans Box Office Prediction

Strange World Box Office Prediction

The last time Dennis Quaid and Jake Gyllenhaal played father and son, it was nearly 20 years ago in Roland Emmerich’s disaster epic The Day After Tomorrow. For the upcoming holiday, they’re family again in the Mouse Factory’s animated Strange World (out Wednesday November 23rd). Voicing a pair of explorers in the sci-fi themed adventure, Don Hall (who made Big Hero 6 and Raya and the Last Dragon) and Qui Nguyen direct. Other voices getting in on the action include Jaboukie Young-White, Gabrielle Union, and Lucy Liu.

Disney is no stranger to releasing high profile product over the long Turkey Day frame. Sometimes that’s Pixar material or traditionally drawn fare such as this. Frozen remains the gold standard. It debuted to $67 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Thanksgiving weekend with $93 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Other Disney releases like Moana and Coco made off with $82 and $72 million over their respective first five. On the other hand, The Good Dinosaur grossed just under $40 million from Friday to Sunday in 2015 with $55 million for the extended period. Perhaps the best comp is last year’s Encanto. It made $27 million for the three-day with $40 million for the five.

The buzz seems strangely quiet considering the studio pedigree. I would argue Encanto had more heat before it opened. Strange could manage only a second place start behind the third outing for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (which does give Disney a one-two punch for the weekend). This might open a little closer to Dreamworks Animation’s Penguins of Madagascar from eight Thanksgivings ago at $25 million (Fri-Sun) and $35 million (Wed-Sun). It might even fall short of that.

Strange World opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Devotion trailer, click here:

Devotion Box Office Prediction

For my Bones and All prediction, click here:

Bones and All Box Office Prediction

For my The Fabelmans prediction, click here:

The Fabelmans Box Office Prediction

November 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/17): The Fathom Events theatrical output of The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 wasn’t on my radar last week when I made projections. I believe it should open in third place (with #2 certainly possible). My estimates have been updated below to reflect the change.

Culinary satire The Menu and true life journalistic expose She Said are the newbies premiering Friday. Each will vie for runner-up status as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will undoubtedly remain in first place in its sophomore outing. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the fresh product here:

The Menu Box Office Prediction
She Said Box Office Prediction

I’m giving the edge to The Menu for #2. I don’t think anything other than Panther will manage double digits and my higher single digits estimate for Menu outweighs the low to mid ones for She Said.

Their placement at 2 and 5 is reliant on neither drastically underperforming and Black Adam having a low to mid 40s dip for fourth. Ticket to Paradise should be fourth depending on the She Said gross.

Back to Panther. The MCU sequel fell $6 million short of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness for biggest domestic premiere of 2022. Strange fell 67% in its second weekend while the year’s other MCU title Thor: Love and Thunder dropped 68%. With its A Cinemascore grade, Wakanda may not fall quite that precipitously.

Here’s how I see the top 5 playing out:

1 . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $70.3 million

2. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

3. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

4. Black Adam

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

5. Ticket to Paradise

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

6. She Said

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (November 11-13)

I went a little high in projecting that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever would achieve the largest debut of the year. It made $181.3 million compared to my call of $195.2 million. As mentioned, that didn’t reach the $187 million that Multiverse did (though it easily outpaced Thor‘s $144 million). Wakanda also fell under the $202 million that its 2018 predecessor made out of the gate.

Black Adam fell to second after two weeks on top with $8 million (in line with my $8.7 million estimate). This comic book adaptation is up to $150 million after three weeks.

Ticket to Paradise was third at $5.9 million, on target with my $5.8 million prediction. The rom com hit $56 million after its third frame.

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile was fourth with $3.2 million (a bit ahead of my $2.5 million estimate) for $40 million total.

Smile rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I said $2.4 million) as it passed the century mark with $102 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…