Tag: Box Office

November 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (11/09): I am revising my Black Panther: Wakanda Forever estimate down from $205.2M to $195.2M.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever looks to achieve the largest opening of 2022 when it is unveiled Friday. The sequel to 2018’s $700 million domestic grosser is understandably the only new release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Box Office Prediction

My estimate puts Wakanda at the higher end of its expected range and has it surpassing its predecessor for the 8th largest debut of all time. It needs to get beyond $191 million to topple the year’s best opening currently held by Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. I believe it can with room to spare.

After a three-week reign atop the charts and a better than anticipated 3rd frame hold (more on that below), Black Adam will drop to second. One Piece Film: Red should have the heftiest percentage fall of all holdovers (typical for its genre). That should allow Ticket to Paradise to remain in third. We could even see Smile or Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile in the four or five spot ahead of Red (it could be awfully close for those 4-6 positions).

Here’s how I see it all playing out:

1 . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $195.2 million

2. Black Adam

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

3. Ticket to Paradise

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

5. Smile

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

6. One Piece Film: Red

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Predictions (November 4-6)

Dwayne Johnson rocked another #1 weekend as Black Adam took in $18.2 million (besting my $14.4 million take). That’s a solid dip of 33% as its stateside tally stands at $137 million. The reported $200 million budget is preventing this from being considered a runaway success, but the total is decent in this marketplace.

One Piece Film: Red, the animated fantasy from Japan, premiered in line with its range at $9.3 million for runner-up status. I went slightly higher at $10.2 million. As mentioned above, a sophomore plummet of over 70% is likely.

Ticket to Paradise continued to prevent the death of the rom com in third with $8.5 million, holding up sturdier than my $6.8 million forecast. The three-week gross is $46 million.

Smile was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $3.4 million) as the sleeper horror hit is up to $99 million (with over $200 million already domestically). The Paramount release should join the century club tonight.

Prey for the Devil was right behind in firth as that scary movie earned $3.8 million in weekend #2. I said a little less with $3.1 million. It’s made $13 million.

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile managed to jump up 23% for sixth place with $3.3 million. The kiddie pic is at $36 million.

Finally, Oscar hopeful The Banshees of Inisherin was seventh with $2 million. The Irish set black comedy with Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson came in a tad below my $2.2 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (11/09): I am revising my estimate down from $205.2M to $195.2M. As opposed to the narrative below, that would now give it the #9 opening of all time behind its 2018 predecessor.

On November 11th, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever looks to score the second largest opening of the young decade and add another MCU pic to the top 10 debuts of all time. The sequel to 2018’s phenomenon has Ryan Coogler returning to the director’s chair. Early reactions are very positive saying that part 2 pays touching tribute to Chadwick Boseman, who played the title character in the original and passed away in 2020. Letitia Wright, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Winston Duke, Dominique Thorne, Tenoch Huerta, Martin Freeman, and Angela Bassett are among the large cast.

Wakanda is not expected to approach the $260 million that Spider-Man: No Way Home made out of the gate last December. It should, however, get beyond the $191 million that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness earned in May. If it does, it would land the #2 opening of the decade and the pandemic era.

In February of 2018, Black Panther rode a wave of sizzling buzz to a $202 million start over the Friday to Sunday portion of President’s Day weekend. For the four-day frame, it topped out at $242 million before eventually grossing $700 million domestically. The three-day premiere still stands at #8 all-time while the overall haul is 6th.

I do believe that all the Wakanda stars are lining up for a Friday to Sunday take that surpasses the original by a small margin. My estimate would give the new Panther the #8 opening while moving its predecessor down to ninth. Time will tell if it eventually approaches the $700 million that the first part amassed.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever opening weekend prediction: $195.2 million

November 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Black Adam hopes for a three-peat before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever invades theaters next weekend. In order to do so, it’ll need to fend off Japan’s animated fantasy One Piece Film: Red. We also have the expansion of Oscar hopeful The Banshees of Inisherin and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

One Piece Film: Red Box Office Prediction
The Banshees of Inisherin Box Office Prediction

One Piece is a bit of a mystery heading into the early November frame. I’ve settled on it getting to double digits, but it could certainly climb higher or fall under my projection. Keep an eye on whether my estimate changes throughout the weekend. A gross just north of $10 million should mean runner-up status with Black Adam in the low to possibly mid teens.

Oscar hopefuls like Banshees have faced a tough road and I suspect this will too. It could find itself in a fight with Prey for the Devil for the five spot as I anticipate that horror pic will suffer a large sophomore decline. I’m giving Prey the edge.

Holdovers Ticket to Paradise and Smile should place third and fourth. Finally, there’s also a wider rollout for Armageddon Time. The coming of age drama from director James Gray stars Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, and Anthony Hopkins. I have not done an individual post forecasting its expansion because I don’t believe it will clear $1 million.

This is how I see the top 6 playing out:

1 . Black Adam

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

2. One Piece Film: Red

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Ticket to Paradise

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

4. Smile

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Prey for the Devil

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

6. The Banshees of Inisherin

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (October 28-30)

As expected, Dwayne Johnson easily ruled the charts as Black Adam took in $27.4 million in weekend #2. That is on pace with my $28.1 million take and the ten-day total is $110 million.

Ticket to Paradise held the two spot with a 40% decline in its sophomore outing at $9.8 million, in line with my $10.4 million prediction. The two-week tally is $33 million.

Prey for the Devil scared up a middling $7.1 million in third. That’s nothing special for the exorcism tale which drew only a C+ Cinemascore grade. It did, however, top my $5.9 million forecast.

Smile was fourth with $5.4 million and I was more generous with $6.5 million. The low budget fright fest has amassed $92 million.

Halloween Ends rounded out the top five with $4 million (I said $4.1 million) for $60 million over three weeks.

Awards bait pics Till and Tár both underwhelmed in their wide premieres. The former was sixth with $2.7 million (not matching my $3.8 million projection). The latter was 10th with $1 million and I was more optimistic at $1.8 million. Respective totals are $3.5 million and $2.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Banshees of Inisherin Box Office Prediction

Director Martin McDonagh reunites with his In Bruges leads Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin. The black comedy set a century ago in Ireland expands to approximately 800 screens next weekend after a solid limited debut. Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan costar in McDonagh’s follow-up to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri which garnered six Academy nods.

Since its premiere at the Venice Film Festival, Inisherin has been subject to its own awards chatter (all four actors could get nominations). The Rotten Tomatoes meter is 97%. In 58 venues this past frame, Banshees took in over $500,000 with a per screen average approaching $10,000.

That could bode well for the early November buildout. On the other hand, we’ve seen platform release like Tár and Till struggle mightily as their counts grow. Banshees could have a slightly broader appeal. I’ll say anywhere between $2-3 million is the reasonable guesstimate.

The Banshees of Inisherin opening weekend prediction: $2.2 million

For my One Film: Red prediction, click here:

One Piece Film: Red Box Office Prediction

One Piece Film: Red Box Office Prediction

Having grossed nearly $150 million in Japan and other territories, animated fantasy adventure One Piece Film: Red arrives on November 4th. The 15th feature in the franchise that began in 2000, the Toei Animation title comes from director Gorõ Taniguchi.

This is the same studio that gave us Dragon Ball Super: Broly and Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero. The former made nearly $10 million in its opening frame in January 2019 while Super Hero swooped to a remarkable $21 million start in August.

One Piece is currently the highest grosser of the year in Japan. Comparisons to Dragon Ball are tricky since the predecessors in this series have not received wide North American distribution. One Piece: Stampede preceded this and made just over $1 million domestically in 2019.

A further complication is that I’ve yet to see a screen count. The aforementioned Super Hero flew to its $20M+ premiere in 3000 venues. I doubt this will reach those numbers. That said, I’ve underestimated this genre before and it seems sensible to project this could debut right above or right below $10 million.

One Piece Film: Red opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my The Banshees of Ininsherin prediction, click here:

The Banshees of Inisherin Box Office Prediction

October 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Studios usually don’t roll out movies that they think will scare up huge box office dollars on Halloween weekend and that holds true for 2022. We have the supernatural horror tale Prey for the Devil and the expansions of Till and Tár (both with likely Best Actress Oscar contenders in Danielle Deadwyler and Cate Blanchett, respectively). You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

Prey for the Devil Box Office Prediction
Till Box Office Prediction
Tár Box Office Prediction

Devil may round up the most business of the newcomers, but my mid single digits forecast would put it in fourth place behind a trio of holdovers. My take on Till could put it in fifth or sixth position based on how Halloween Ends holds after its massive sophomore frame plummet (more on that below). As for Tár, it’s slated for approximately 1000 venues and my $1.8 million projection leaves it outside of the top five or six.

The top 3 should remain the same with Black Adam having no trouble topping the charts for a second weekend. How far it falls is a better question. With a so-so B+ Cinemascore grade, I foresee a slightly higher dip than the 54% that Shazam! experienced in 2019. If it approaches closer to 60%, a gross in the upper 20s would be the result.

Ticket to Paradise with George Clooney and Julia Roberts slightly surpassed expectations and it should hold well with a 35-40% decrease. The runaway hit Smile should be the fright fest of choice in third place as it continues its meager declines.

And with that, my top 6 take for the spooky close out session of October:

1. Black Adam

Predicted Gross: $28.1 million

2. Ticket to Paradise

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

3. Smile

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

4. Prey for the Devil

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Halloween Ends

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

6. Till

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (October 21-23)

The DCEU’s Black Adam, with Dwayne Johnson seemingly everywhere promoting it, opened in line with most prognostications at $67 million. That’s a bit above my $64.7 million take and in line with the studio’s Aquaman from 2018. It’s safe to say we haven’t seen the last of the character. As mentioned, this should easily repeat in 1st position this weekend (and the weekend after until Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hits).

Rom com Ticket to Paradise capitalized on its star power for $16.5 million, bettering my prediction of $13.7 million. That’s a needed boost for a genre that’s been struggling in recent years and an older crowd turned out to make the multiplex trek.

Smile continued to make Paramount happy with $8.4 million, a shade below my $9.5 million estimate. At $84 million after four weeks, the low budget pic is barreling toward $100 million domestically.

Halloween Ends went from 1st to 4th with a momentous 80% reduction. At $8 million, the final showdown between Laurie Strode and Michael Myers didn’t match my $10.4 million projection. The two-week total is $54 million as it will fall quite a bit short of the $92 million that predecessor Halloween Kills made.

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $5.2 million) and $28 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Tár Box Office Prediction

Till with Danielle Deadwyler isn’t the only picture with a likely Best Actress nominee expanding this weekend. There’s also Tár in which Cate Blanchett will compete for her third gold statue. I’ve currently got her ranked #1 in that competition. Todd Field directs with a supporting cast including Noémie Merlant, Nina Hoss, Sophie Kauer, Julian Glover, and Mark Strong.

With its 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the portrayal of a renowned composer whose world is riddled by scandal opened in limited release on October 7th. Early results were solid, but its performance this past weekend raises questions as to its broad appeal. On 141 screens, it made $500,000. That translates to just over $3500 per venue.

The film is expected to branch out to 1000 locations on Friday. History teaches us that the per theater average should drop and I’m projecting a gross of just under $2 million for the wider rollout.

Tár opening weekend prediction: $1.8 million

For my Prey for the Devil prediction, click here:

Prey for the Devil Box Office Prediction

For my Till prediction, click here:

Till Box Office Prediction

Till Box Office Prediction

Danielle Deadwyler is likely headed for a Best Actress nomination in Chinonye Chukwu’s Till, which opens wide in approximately 2000 theaters on October 28th. She plays Mamie Till, mother of Emmett who was brutally murdered in 1955. The biographical drama features Jalyn Hall as her son as well as Frankie Faison, Haley Bennett, and Whoopi Goldberg.

After its premiere at the New York Film Festival, Till received critical acclaim and it sports a 99% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Yet since its October 14th limited release, returns have been underwhelming. This past weekend, it earned approximately $600,000 on 104 screens. That’s a per screen average of just over $3600 and it doesn’t bode well for the expansion.

Three years ago, Harriet surpassed forecasts with its debut at the same time of year. With nearly $12 million for its start, that kind of number would be amazing for Till. Given the early evidence, it may only make a third of that.

Till opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my Prey for the Devil prediction, click here:

Prey for the Devil Box Office Prediction

For my Tár prediction, click here:

Tár Box Office Prediction

Prey for the Devil Box Office Prediction

Director Daniel Stamm is no stranger to the demonic possession genre as he made The Last Exorcism in 2010. It made just beyond $20 million over a decade ago for its start and spawned a sequel. Lionsgate would thank the heavens for that kind of dough on October 28th with Prey for the Devil, Stamm’s latest. The PG-13 exorcism tale stars Jacqueline Byers as a nun investigating an evil influence. The supporting cast includes Colin Salmon, Christian Navarro, Lisa Palfrey, Virginia Madsen, and the late Ben Cross.

The Halloween weekend is actually not a fertile ground to open new product – scary or otherwise. There have only been three movies that debuted to $20 million or more in the spooky frame: Saw 3D in 2010 ($24 million), Michael Jackson’s This Is It in 2009 ($23 million), and 2004’s Ray ($20 million). In fact, just seven features have topped $10 million.

Another factor not in Devil‘s favor is the abundance of horror offerings in recent weeks such as Barbarian, Smile, and Halloween Kills. The last two could still be doing decent business as October closes.

Add that up and I’m not sure this manages to top double digits. Mid single digits might be more likely.

Prey for the Devil opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million

For my Till prediction, click here:

Till Box Office Prediction

For my Tár prediction, click here:

Tár Box Office Prediction

October 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Dwayne Johnson lends his star power to the DC Extended Universe in Black Adam and there’s the megawatt combo of George Clooney and Julia Roberts in the rom com Ticket to Paradise. They are the weekend’s new offerings and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Black Adam Box Office Prediction

Ticket to Paradise Box Office Prediction

While Adam is unlikely to approach the $100 million plus starts of other DCEU efforts, it should easily rock the charts with a gross in the mid 60s.

The two spot could be more of a battle. However, I’m guessing the Clooney/Roberts team-up (while it would’ve been more potent 20 years ago) should nab the runner-up position.

With a C+ Cinemascore grade, Halloween Kills couldn’t keep up with its two predecessors Halloween (2018) and Halloween Kills (2021). Last October, Kills plummeted 70% in its sophomore outing. I expect Ends may even get slashed a tad more. There’s even a possibility its second weekend could place behind the fourth frame of Smile, but I doubt it.

Finally, Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile should round out the top five and here’s how I see it looking:

1. Black Adam

Predicted Gross: $64.7 million

2. Ticket to Paradise

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

3. Halloween Ends

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

4. Smile

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

5. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (October 14-16)

Coming in nearly $10 million below the last tussle of Laurie Strode and Michael Myers was Halloween Ends with $40 million (under my take of $47.6 million). The budget is low so profitability isn’t an issue. Yet it will take the current (and final?) trilogy out on a low note.

Smile continued its impressive holds in second place with $12.5 million, just ahead of my $11.8 million estimate. The horror hit (which is likely starting its own franchise) has amassed $71 million in three weeks.

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile was third with $7.3 million (on target with my $7.2 million call). The family friendly musical stands at a middling $22 million after 10 days of release.

The Woman King was fourth with $3.7 million (I said $4.1 million) for $59 million overall.

Lastly, Amsterdam (as expected) fell a precipitous 57% in its sophomore weekend to $2.7 million. I was a bit more generous at $3 million. The big budget flop has taken in only $11 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…