Blogger’s Note (05/24): I am revising my Kandahar prediction from $7.9 million to $4.2 million
Gerard Butler hopes to land a solid opening with Kandahar, his latest action thriller that reunites him with Angel Has Fallen director Ric Roman Waugh. Rolling out over the long Memorial Day weekend, costars include Navid Negahban, Ali Fazal, Bahador Foladi, Nina Toussaint-White, and Travis Fimmel.
Looking over the recent filmography, Butler’s efforts have posted divergent results. Den of Thieves made just north of $15 million five years ago. On the flip side, Hunter Killer from 2018 only did $6.6 million.
Plane from this January also premiered over a four-day MLK frame with $11.8 million overall on its way to $32 million domestically. Its simple concept may sell better than Kandahar. I’ll project the Friday to Monday take falls below double digits.
Kandahar opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Popular comedian and podcaster Bert Kreischer takes a true tale from his stand-up routine and converts it to film with The Machine. The raucous pic has the lead playing himself with Mark Hamill portraying his dad as they are kidnapped by the Russian Mob. Jessica Gabor, Iva Babić, Jimmy Tatro, and Stephanie Kurtzuba costar. Peter Atencio (in his follow-up to Keanu) directs.
While Kreischer certainly has a following, I’m not convinced a significant number of his fans will make the multiplex trek. Plenty may just wait until it’s available to stream (several comedies in general have struggled in theaters recently). Then there’s About My Father with Sebastian Maniscalco and Robert De Niro which debuts against it and could siphon away those looking for a laugh.
Over the four-day Memorial weekend, I’m not sure it gets to $5 million and I’ll project it won’t.
The Machine opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Stand-up Sebastian Maniscalco hopes audiences take a seat for the autobiographical About My Father, a cultural comedy that he stars in and cowrote. Laura Terruso directs with Robert De Niro playing the lead’s father who meets the parents of his son’s would-be fiancee. Costars include Leslie Bibb, Anders Holm, David Rasche, and Kim Cattrall.
Releasing over the long Memorial Day weekend, Father faces competition from another laugher headlined by a popular comedian. That would be The Machine with Bert Kreischer and it’ll interesting to track which comes out on top. Many comedies in recent years have faced tough odds at multiplexes. Both could suffer.
Maniscalco’s filmography is limited and consists of no high profile starring roles until now (he did play a supporting part alongside De Niro in The Irishman). I suspect this could fail to reach double digits over the four-day. A worst case scenario would be around $5 million. I’ll give it a little more credit.
About My Father opening weekend prediction: $6.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Back in 1989, Disney’s animated underwater musical fantasy The Little Mermaid helped usher in a new golden era for the studio. Over the past few years, the Mouse Factory has made a habit out of releasing live-action renderings of those classics. This includes the pics that immediately followed Mermaid in Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King.
It’s Ariel’s turn this Memorial Day weekend with Halle Bailey in the title role. Melissa McCarthy is Ursula and other supporting players include Jonah Hauer-King, Daveed Diggs, Awkwafina, Jacob Tremblay, Noma Dumezweni, and Javier Bardem. Rob Marshall, Oscar winning maker of Chicago as well as Mary Poppins Returns, directs.
Disney has mostly seen boffo results with this subgenre. This include four premieres over nine figures: 2016’s The Jungle Book ($103M), 2017’s Beauty and the Beast ($174M) and Aladdin ($116M) and The Lion King ($191M) from 2019. For Aladdin, that number represents the four-day Memorial weekend haul. Mermaid looks to swim in a similar financial pool as that effort. Anything below $100M would be a letdown.
I figure Mermaid will easily accomplish that goal. The original is beloved enough that the grown-ups who saw it 30 plus years ago should eagerly take their young ones. I’ll say the extended Friday to Monday gross may get beyond $130M.
The Little Mermaid opening weekend prediction: $132.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Vin Diesel and a sprawling cast of costars and cars are back in Fast X as the franchise hopes to reverse a downward trend. It is the only wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
X hopes to mark a gross higher than the $70 million achieved my predecessor F9 two years ago. I’m projecting it won’t do so and stall slightly under in the mid to high 60s.
The rest of the top five should be holdovers all sliding a spot. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may drop in the mid 4os after an encouraging bounce back outing in its sophomore frame (more on that below).
The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Book Club: The Next Chapter (after a soft premiere), and Evil Dead Rise will likely be 3-5 for a top five consisting of 80% sequels.
Here’s how I see it:
1. Fast X
Predicted Gross: $67.8 million
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $33.5 million
3. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
4. Book Club: The Next Chapter
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
5. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (May 12-14)
The news wasn’t so hot last weekend for the MCU when Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 started with nearly $30 million under what Vol. 2 achieved six summers ago. The narrative improved this weekend as part 3 dipped a scant 48% for $62 million (ahead of my $54.8 million take). That figure puts it just $3 million behind what part 2 made in its second go-round. The ten-day gross is $214 million and it’s up to half a billion worldwide.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie stayed in second with $12.6 million, a tad more than my $11.7 million forecast. The six-week haul is $535 million.
Book Club: The Next Chapter couldn’t get a read on its intended audience as it sputtered with $6.6 million in third. That’s roughly half of what its 2018 predecessor accomplished in its opening and trails my $10.8 million prediction.
Evil Dead Rise was fourth with $3.7 million (I said $3.2 million) for a commendable four-week total of $60 million.
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret rounded out the top five with $2.5 million, on target with my $2.4 million call. While it had only a 22% decline over Mother’s Day weekend, the overall earnings are a mere $16 million after three weeks.
Finally, the Ben Affleck thriller Hypnotic was dumped into multiplexes and it showed. The sixth place showing was just $2.4 million. I didn’t even bother to do a projection for the doomed pic.
You can listen to my podcast wherever you like ’em by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation. That does it for now, folks! Until next time…
Heroes from the MCU and DCEU join the large Furious family when Fast X speeds into multiplexes on May 19th. The tenth official feature in the franchise (11th counting spin-off Hobbs & Shaw) arrives less than two years behind F9. Those newcomers to the fold are Captain Marvel Brie Larson and Aquaman Jason Momoa. Another fresh face to the series is director Louis Letterier, best known for The Transporter and Now You See Me. The many returnees include Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Chris “Ludacris” Bridges, Nathalie Emmanuel, Jordana Brewster, John Cena, Jason Statham, Sung Kang, Scott Eastwood, and Charlize Theron. Rita Moreno also joins the party.
Fast X is the penultimate pic with the (allegedly) final installment hitting in 2025. In 2015, Furious 7 had the high dollar peak when it premiered with $147 million and an eventual $353 domestic gross. Part of that franchise best performance was because it paid tribute to the late Paul Walker (who co-headlined with Diesel in four previous entries). In 2017, The Fate of the Furious started with $98 million and ended with $225 million. Predecessor F9 from 2021 managed $70 million out of the gate and $173 million overall.
One could argue that F9 was hindered two summers ago by the COVID pandemic. That could be proven if X is marked by a larger opening. My hunch is that it’ll kick off on pace with it and maybe even a little behind. That would give it the lowest series beginning (excluding the $60 million from Hobbs & Shaw) since 2006’s The Fast and the Furious: Toyko Drift.
Blogger’s Update (05/10): With reports that Knights of the Zodiac is only opening on 750 screens, I’m revising my prediction from $2.2M to $1.2M.
Book Club: The Next Chapter hopes to blossom on Mother’s Day weekend while Knights of the Zodiac (based on a Japanese manga) also touches down. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
There’s no doubt that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will hold the #1 spot. Yet it will do so after a disappointing start (more on that below). The big question is how far it falls in the sophomore frame. Vol. 2 in 2017 eased a reasonable 55% after a strong $146 million start. With an A Cinemascore grade, the third iteration could see a similar drop. A low to mid 50s decline would put it in the mid 50s.
Book Club: The Next Chapter, a sequel to the 2018 rom com, looks to reach $12-14 million. That would be in range with its predecessor and the recent 80 for Brady. This particular holiday could it get there, but I’ll go a tad under. That could put it in a photo finish with the sixth weekend of The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
As for Zodiac, it’ll hope to make some coin overseas and it’ll need to with a reported $60 million budget. The domestic prospects appear dim and it may not even reach the top 5.
**A quick note about the sci-fi thriller Hypnotic with Ben Affleck. Apparently it’s out this weekend and there’s been approximately zero promotion or buzz. This appears to be getting dumped. I haven’t done an official prediction and it might be fortunate to make $1 million (I’m curious to see a screen count).
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1 . Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $54.8 million
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
3. Book Club: The Next Chapter
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
4. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
5. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (May 5-7)
It wasn’t exactly a festive start to summer for Disney as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 got off to a shaky start. With $118.4 million, it came in a bit under my $125.3 million take and significantly below the $146 million from Vol. 2. This is the second under performer of 2023 as Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania also failed to match overall expectations.
After spending April in the top spot, The Super Mario Bros. Movie finally dropped to second with $18.5 million, a steeper plunge than my projection of $23.8 million. Nevertheless its five-week total is an astonishing $518 million.
Evil Dead Rise was third in weekend 3 with $5.8 million, in line with my $6.2 million forecast. It’s up to a solid $54 million.
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret was fourth with $3.2 million (I said $4 million). Despite laudatory reviews, the coming-of-age dramedy isn’t reaching audiences and the ten-day tally is a mere $12 million.
Rom com fans tuned out Love Again which began with only $2.3 million, not even matching my $3.2 million call.
Finally, John Wick: Chapter 4 was sixth in its seventh frame with $2.3 million. I said $3.5 million and the fourth shoot-em-up saga has amassed $180 million.
That does it for now, folks! You can listen to me talk all things box office via Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you catch your podcasts. Until next time…
Blogger’s Update (05/10): With reports that Knights of the Zodiac is only opening on 750 screens, I’m revising my prediction from $2.2M to $1.2M.
Based on a Japanese manga series that began in the mid 1980s, Knights of the Zodiac hits theaters this Friday. The fantasy adventure is directed by Tomek Bagiński and stars Mackenyu, son of martial arts legend Sonny Chiba. Costars include Famke Janssen, Madison Iseman, Diego Tinoco, Mark Dacascos, Nick Stahl, and Sean Bean.
With a reported budget of $60 million, Zodiac hopes to make its mark overseas. Its domestic prospects look dim. I haven’t seen an official screen count (and that could alter my projection), but I’d be surprised if this topped $5 million. In fact, it might be lucky to take in half of that.
Knight of the Zodiac opening weekend prediction: $1.2 million
For my Book Club: The Next Chapter prediction, click here:
Focus Features is hoping an older and mostly female audience is kindled by their fond memories of part 1 when Book Club: The Next Chapter opens on May 12th. The sequel to the 2018 rom com features Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, Mary Steenburgen, Andy Garcia, Don Johnson, and Craig T. Nelson reprising their roles. Bill Holderman is back in the director’s seat.
With the action moved to Italy, Chapter seeks to serve a crowd often underserved in the summer season. It’s a formula that paid off handsomely in the same mid-May time frame five years ago. Book Club started with $13.6 million and continued exceeding expectations with small drop-offs in subsequent frames. It ended up earning nearly $70 million domestically and just over $100 million worldwide.
I don’t see any reason why this would fall much under the original in its first weekend. There’s another recent comp in 80 for Brady (also with Fonda) as it premiered with a similar $12.5 million (though it did suffer larger declines afterwards than Club).
I’ll say this debuts right in range with its predecessor. It could go slightly over or under and I’ll pick the latter.
Book Club: The Next Chapter opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
For my Knights of the Zodiac prediction, click here:
In recent years, the summer movie season officially kicks off when the MCU releases a tentpole adventure. That’s the case in 2023 with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 arriving to end the month long reign of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. We also have rom dramedy Love Again hoping to attract a female audience. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies can be found here:
Tracking suggests that the third Guardians will fall short of the $146 million opening achieved by its 2017 predecessor, but top the $94 million that the original made way back in 2014. Anything significantly under #2’s start will be considered a letdown and I am projecting a gross $20 million shy of its mark. If that occurs, it would be the second less than anticipated haul for a Marvel pic after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
With a billion bucks in the worldwide bank and after four weeks in first, The Super Mario Bros. Movie should at last relinquish the crown. A low 4os dip should put it in the low to mid 20s.
Evil Dead Rise and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (after a disappointing premiere) should each fall a spot while John Wick: Chapter 4 may remain in fifth position.
That’s assuming Love Again struggles to find its desired audience and I am forecasting that’ll be the scenario. I have it in sixth and it might be lucky to get that much love.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $125.3 million
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
3. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
6. Love Again
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (April 28-30)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie was #1 for the month of April as it spent a fourth weekend atop the charts with $40.8 million. That’s on pace with my $39.4 million estimate as the Nintendo juggernaut is up to $490 million domestically while crossing a billion worldwide.
Evil Dead Rise, especially for a horror sequel, had a commendable hold in second with $12.1 million, rising beyond my $8.8 million projection. The ten-day haul is an impressive $44 million.
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, the cinematic rendering of Judy Blume’s acclaimed novel, was searching for an audience and came up short. In third place, it made a weak $6.7 million. This is well under my $15.3 million take as it struggled despite mostly rave reviews.
Return of the Jedi celebrated its 40th birthday with a return to approximately 500 screens and added $5.1 million to its coffers for fourth place. I didn’t have it on my radar screen to reach the top five.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was fifth with $4.8 million (I said $4.1 million) to bring its earnings to $176 million after six weeks.
Two other newcomers didn’t make much of a dent. Finnish action pic Sisu was in 10th place with $3.3 million. That’s actually not too shabby given its low 1006 theater count.
Boxing biopic Big George Foreman was knocked out with $2.9 million in 11th place. I thought it would perform better and went with $5.7 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite platform! Until next time…
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