Based on an enormous bestselling novel from John Green, The Fault in Our Stars opens this Friday at the box office and it seems to be gaining momentum for a terrific opening.
Equipped with a minor $12 million budget, Fault stars Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort as two teenagers who meet at their cancer support group. The 2012 book has connected in a major way with YA readers in and its following is expected to bring in moviegoers. Fault should succeed in easily tripling its budget with its domestic opening weekend alone. This should continue a stellar 2014 for Woodley, in particular, whose Divergent this spring has earned #148 million stateside. I believe an opening in the $40M+ range is the most likely scenario meaning Fault should debut at the top spot.
The Fault in Our Stars opening weekend prediction: $43.1 million
The summer season keeps the potential blockbusters coming as the Disney tale Maleficent with Angelina Jolie and Seth MacFarlane’s Ted follow-up A Million Ways to Die in the West make their debuts this Friday. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I expect both newbies to post healthy debuts, though I expect Maleficent to take in nearly double the haul of A Million Ways. As for holdovers, the Memorial Day weekend champ X-Men: Days of Future Past got off to an impressive start and yet it’s likely to suffer a drop in the high 50s to low 60s in its sophomore weekend. This is not a sign that audiences that don’t like it (quite the contrary). It’s just that tent pole pics that debut over the holiday weekend always tend to suffer large drop-offs. If X-Men were to fall at the rate I anticipate, there could be a potential horse race between it and A Million Ways for the #2 position.
Godzilla (in weekend three) and Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore flop Blended (in weekend two) should round out the top five.
And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Maleficent
Predicted Gross: $66.2 million
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Predicted Gross: $37.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)
3. A Million Ways to Die in the West
Predicted Gross: $33.6 million
4. Godzilla
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)
5. Blended
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)
Box Office Results (May 23-26)
The Memorial Day weekend saw the X-Men franchise post its second highest debut ever as Days of Future Past earned $110.5 million over the four-day. This is just slightly below my $114.3M estimate. Only 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand debuted stronger and this bodes well for future X adventures.
Meanwhile Godzilla fell further in its second weekend than nearly everyone figured with $38.4 million, well under my $50.6M projection. This indicates that audiences are not impressed with what they saw and aren’t recommending their friends see it. Still it’s earned enough to justify an inevitable sequel.
Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore posted very lackluster results with their rom com Blended, which earned just $17.7 million over the holiday. I thought my estimate of $24.9M was on the low side, but audiences clearly weren’t too interested in what they were selling.
Rounding out the top five were holdovers Neighbors with $17.1 million (a bit under my $18.8M projection) and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 with $10 million (just under my $11M estimate).
“Family Guy” creator Seth MacFarlane enters the world of film for the second time with A Million Ways to Die in the West, his directorial follow-up to the smash hit Ted from two summers ago. Unlike his previous effort, MacFarlane stars this time around and he’s brought along an all-star cast including Charlize Theron, Liam Neeson, Amanda Seyfried, Giovanni Ribisi, Sarah Silverman, and Neil Patrick Harris.
The R rated western comedy is unlikely to match Ted numbers, which debuted to $54 million on its way to a domestic gross of $218 million. However, I still expect it to do solid business. It may seem like an odd comparison, but I see last year’s Identity Thief as a mark of what I believe West could open at. That picture made $34.5M in its opening weekend and I credit that to the goodwill audiences had for star Melissa McCarthy after Bridesmaids. In the same way – many moviegoers are simply very curious to see what MacFarlane has up his sleeve this time.
There’s plenty of competition out there as there always is around this time of year, but not a whole lot in the way of comedies. Neighbors has already made the bulk of its money and Blended with Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore debuted weakly over Memorial Day weekend. Like Thief, I think West posts a low to mid 30s opening.
A Million Ways to Die in the West opening weekend prediction: $33.6 million
This coming Friday, Disney brings us Maleficent, a live-action pic focusing on the well-known villainess from Sleeping Beauty. In the title role is Angelina Jolie, who will aim for (and most likely get) her highest live-action debut of all time.
Costarring Elle Fanning and Sharlto Copley, we’ve seen this type of film work at the box office before when Snow White and the Huntsman got off to a $56.2 million start just two summers ago. With an estimated budget of $180 million, Disney clearly believes it has a winner on their hands and they’re probably right. Maleficent should succeed in bringing in kid viewers as well as an impressive female audience.
Jolie’s current largest opening is Wanted from 2008, which made $50.9M in its debut. As I see it, Maleficent should certainly top that number. I feel it will also surpass Snow White‘s gross from 2012. The marketing campaign has been strong and I’m predicting an initial gross in the mid-60s makes a lot of sense.
Maleficent opening weekend prediction: $66.2 million
For my A Million Ways to Die in the West prediction, click here:
Memorial Day weekend 2014 at the box office brings the potentially explosive opening of X-Men: Days of Future Past and the Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore rom com Blended. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I’m not quite buying some prognosticators claiming X-Men will make $125 million over the four day holiday frame, but my prediction isn’t too far off from that. Meanwhile, I look for Blended to have an opening on the lower end of typical Sandler debuts.
As for holdovers, percentage drops are typically smaller during Memorial weekend so I see Godzilla, Neighbors, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 having relatively decent holds.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend top five and their four day holiday totals:
1. X-Men: Days of Future Past
Predicted Gross: $114.3 million
2. Godzilla
Predicted Gross: $50.6 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. Blended
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
4. Neighbors
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (representing a drop of 24%)
5. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (May 16-18)
While many predictions for holdovers were solid over the past weekend, I didn’t give Godzilla near enough credit while giving Million Dollar Arm with Jon Hamm way too much credit.
Godzilla stomped into theaters to the tune of $93.1 million, well beyond my $77.3M estimate. The monster pic managed the second highest debut of the year behind Captain America: The Winter Soldier and virtually guarantees we’ll see a sequel featuring the jolly green giant in the near future.
Seth Rogen’s comedy Neighbors dropped to second with $25 million in its sophomore frame, right in line with my $24.3M projection. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was third in its third weekend with $16.8 million, on pace with my $16.6M projection.
Million Dollar Arm, the Disney sports drama, flopped in its opening with a meager $10.5 million, way below my generous $23.4M estimate. Clearly the film simply failed to resonate in its marketing campaign.
Rounding out the top five in weekend #4 was Cameron Diaz’s The Other Woman with $6.3 million, just over my $5.7M prediction.
That’s all for now folks! I’ll have results posted for Memorial weekend next week.
While many filmgoers will choose the X-Men for their Memorial Day weekend entertainment, Warner Bros. attempts some counterprogramming with the rom com Blended which reunites Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore. The pair already has a couple of box office hits under their belt together with 1998’s The Wedding Singer ($80.2M domestic gross) and 2004’s 50 First Dates ($120.9M domestic gross).
Costarring Joel McHale, Terry Crews, Kevin Nealon, and Shazaam himself Shaquille O’Neal, Blended seems to be flying a bit under the radar with all the blockbusters such as Godzilla and X-Men: Days of Future Past in the marketplace. Sandler’s pictures have been a mixed bag as of late. While last summer’s Grown Ups 2 was a hit with a $41.5M opening, recent pics Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy have disappointed with respective openings of $25M and $13.4M. The inclusion of Barrymore with Sandler could help, as both of their previous efforts are well-regarded. However, trailers and TV spots for Blended have been rather unimpressive in my view.
If Blended managed to reach what Sandler’s last romantic comedy opened at, Warner Bros. should consider that a success. That would be Just Go With It, which debuted with $30.5M in February 2011. Blended will have the advantage of a four day Memorial Day weekend tally and yet I feel it will struggle to gain major traction with audiences. I’m predicting a holiday opening in the quarter century range is the likeliest scenario.
Blended four day opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million
For my X-Men: Days of Future Past prediction, click here:
The Memorial Day weekend box office gets underway with X-Men: Days of Future Past, the seventh installment in the venerable Fox franchise. It’s probably safe to say that audience anticipation for this one is the highest it’s been in the series in a while. Why? That would be the combination of the casts from the original X-Men franchise alongside the group from 2011’s X-Men: First Class. That means Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen matching up against their younger counterparts James McAvoy and Michael Fassbender. It also means Hugh Jackman returning as Wolverine with Jennifer Lawrence as Mystique, as well as Halle Berry, Ellen Page, Nicholas Hault, and Shawn Ashmore.
Director Bryan Singer, who was behind the camera for the franchise’s critically acclaimed first two installments, is back in the mix, too. This has all led to some box office prognosticators forecasting a healthy $125 million four-day holiday opening for the pic. In my view, that seems just a bit high. However, it’s worth noting that I’ve been quite a bit under on both Neighbors and Godzilla‘s debuts so far this summer season. As far as Memorial Day weekends go, the champ is 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, which earned $139.8 million. The silver prize goes to 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, which took in $126.9M. Last year’s holiday winner was Fast and Furious 6 with its $117M haul. To me, that seems like a more reasonable ballpark for what Future Past could open at.
In order for the film to break the all-time franchise record, it will need to outdo the $122.8M that X-Men: The Last Stand made over Memorial Day weekend in 2006. It’s certainly possible, but my estimate puts it a bit below that. Either way, this should certainly far outshine the $55.1 million made by First Class three summers ago and set up nicely for the next planned installment, X-Men: Apocalypse, slated for 2016.
X-Men: Days of Future Past four day opening weekend prediction: $114.3 million
It’s the battle of AMC stars Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm as the summer season rolls along entering weekend #3 with monster flick Godzilla and Disney sports drama Million Dollar Arm entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Godzilla with Cranston should very easily dominate while a more interesting scenario could play out for the runner-up spot. Last weekend’s champ Neighbors had a bigger than expected opening (more on that below), however it received only a B Cinemascore grade which is lower than I would’ve thought. That means it could be in store for a larger sophomore drop-off than I might have earlier anticipated. This could set it up for a close showdown with Million Dollar Arm, starring Hamm.
As for the rest of the top five, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should experience another healthy fall in its third weekend while The Other Woman rounds out the group.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Godzilla
Predicted Gross: $77.3 million
2. Neighbors
Predicted Gross: $24.3 million (representing a drop of 50%)
3. Million Dollar Arm
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. The Other Woman
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (May 9-11)
The Seth Rogen/Zac Efron comedy Neighbors scored a truly impressive debut with $49 million, well above my $37.3M projection. The well-reviewed frat pic scored the fifth highest R rated comedy opening of all time, after The Hangover Part II, Sex and the City, Ted, and Jackass 3-D.
Dropping to second was The Amazing Spider-Man 2, plummeting a healthy 61% with $35.5 million, below my $40.6M estimate. The Spidey sequel has not met expectations domestically and it’s on course to certainly be the lowest grossing pic in the franchise yet. Sony and Marvel might be in for a major brainstorming session in order for the planned third and fourth installments to reverse this troubling trend.
The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz was third with $9.6 million in weekend #3, holding up stronger than my $7.6M prediction. In fourth, Heaven Is for Real also performed better than my prediction with my $7.4 million (I said $5M). The fifth and sixth spots went to sequel holdovers that I didn’t include in my top six estimates: Captain America: The Winter Soldier took in $5.7 million and Rio 2 made $5 million.
This means the other two newbies this weekend posted lackluster results. The faith based Moms’ Night Out was seventh with $4.3 million, slightly under my $5.1M projection. The animated Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return tanked in eighth with $3.7 million, below my moderate $5.7M estimate.
Disney will attempt some counterprogramming this weekend as the studio opens its real life sports drama Million Dollar Arm starring “Mad Men” lead Jon Hamm. The pic is based on the story of sports agents traveling to India to recruit future major league baseball players. The supporting cast includes Bill Paxton, Alan Arkin, and Life of Pi actor Suraj Sharma.
The studio behind Million Dollar Arm is no stranger to marketing sports related dramas. Both Miracle in 2004 and Invincible in 2006 performed well and got off the ground with $19M and $17M debuts, respectively. Arm has received a solid marketing campaign and might serve as a good alternative to those not watching Godzilla stomp back into theaters. Having Jon Hamm featured in his first true lead role doesn’t hurt either and word of mouth is positive, with Disney claiming this is one of its highest testing pictures in years.
The grosses I previously mentioned for Miracle and Invincible should be the likely low mark for what this can achieve. However, I suspect a gross in the low to mid 20s is even more possible.
Million Dollar Arm opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million
The giant green monster is back in theaters this Friday with Godzilla from director Gareth Edwards. This is certainly being seen as one of summer 2014s’s tent pole releases and Warner Bros. is certainly hoping for massive results.
Godzilla has been assisted from some truly terrific trailers and a healthy marketing campaign. Obviously, the name recognition of the title character is off the charts. The real people cast includes Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Elizabeth Olsen, Ken Watanabe, Juliette Binoche, Sally Hawkins, and, yes… Walter freaking White himself… Bryan Cranston! Not everything Godzilla related over the recent past was met with positive results. Sixteen summers ago, Roland Emmerich’s highly publicized Godzilla pic was widely expected to be a huge blockbuster, especially after the director had hit gold with Independence Day two years prior. Instead, it managed only an OK $136 million gross and was widely panned by critics and audiences alike.
The 2014 version is unlikely to suffer the same fate. Reviews so far have generally been fairly positive to mixed. I don’t see Godzilla opening in the neighborhood of the Captain America or Amazing Spider-Man sequels which both topped $90 million. For Godzilla, anything below $70M would likely be seen as disappointing. It is worth noting that much of Godzilla‘s total gross will come from international markets. The most sensible scenario domestically is a gross just north of $75M, though it could certainly surprise. However, I’ll play it rather safe with this pick.
Godzilla opening weekend prediction: $77.3 million
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