Tag: Box Office

Transformers: Age of Extinction Box Office Prediction

This Friday, Transformers: Age of Extinction will attempt to score the biggest opening weekend of 2014 and its chances are pretty darn solid. That title is currently held by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which scored $95 million in its debut.

Director Michael Bay is back behind the camera just as he was for the first three installments. However, have an entirely new cast that includes Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and Kelsey Grammer. The trilogy’s star Shia LaBeouf is nowhere to be seen… and he’s probably off doing something really weird somewhere.

Comparing the Age of Extinction‘s predicted gross to the other franchise entrees is a tricky proposition. That’s because the other films opened on Tuesdays or Wednesdays with some on Fourth of July holiday weekends. The third flick Dark of the Moon took in a whopping $180 million over a six-day period. The second Revenge of the Fallen grossed $200.1 million over five days while the original made $155.4 million over five days in 2007.

The premiere of Extinction is unlikely to reach those levels since it will only be for its traditional weekend haul (plus Thursday night grosses). It’s also a legitimate question as to whether the franchise has lost a bit of steam. As I see it, the big question is if this clears $100 million out of the gate. I’m not totally confident that it will. The range of how this opens could be $120 million on the high end. Anything below $90 million would be considered low, especially considering the openings of the first three pictures.

Ultimately, I believe the dinobots and decepticons and autobots will claim the title of #1 opening so far in 2014, but not by much.

Transformers: Age of Extinction opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million

Box Office Predictions: June 20-22

Two new pictures enter the marketplace this Friday with the Kevin Hart led sequel Think Like a Man Too and the Clint Eastwood directed adaptation of the Broadway smash Jersey Boys. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

Depending on the percentage drops of sequels 22 Jump Street and How To Train Your Dragon 2, there could be a legitimate three-way race for the top spot among those “part two’s” and the second Think Like a Man. My prediction for Man is on the higher end of expectations and I’m estimating Jump Street loses about half its audience and Dragon only loses around one-third of its debut gross.

This should leave Jersey Boys opening in the four spot with Maleficent rounding out the top five.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Think Like a Man Too

Predicted Gross: $38.2 million

2. How To Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Jersey Boys

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

5. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (June 13-15)

Well it’s not often that I miss a prediction by nearly $40 million dollars, but I’m embarrassed to report it happened this weekend. Simply put, How To Train Your Dragon 2 didn’t come anywhere close to what I believed to be its potential. Many insiders had pegged this as a candidate for summer 2014’s biggest grosser and I bought into it. It earned a just OK $49.4 million compared to my $88.7 million prediction. Ouch.

This allowed 22 Jump Street to post a terrific #1 opening with $57 million, just above my $53.1M projection. The goodwill left over from the 2012 original and rock solid reviews clearly contributed to its success.

Maleficent took the #3 spot in its third weekend with $18.5 million, barely outpacing my $17.4M estimate. The Disney hit had taken in $163M so far and looks to surpass $200 million when all is said and done.

Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow held up better in weekend #2 than I thought it would with $16.5 million for fourth, ahead of my $13.8M estimate. It’s taken in $57 million in ten days and has a shot of getting to $100 million.

This means last weekend’s #1 The Fault in Our Stars dipped further than my estimate with $14.7 million in its sophomore frame. I predicted $17.9 million. The John Green adapted weepie fell a steep 67%, but it’s already made $80 million in ten days and had a meager $12 million budget.

That’s all for now, folks. Until next time!

 

Jersey Boys Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros Pictures attempts a summer counterprogramming move with Jersey Boys, Clint Eastwood’s adaptation of the hugely successful Broadway musical. The pic tells the story of Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons group and the studio is hopeful that adults will turn their attention to this after a healthy heaping of comic book flicks, comedies, and action spectacles over the last few weeks.

With a cast of mostly unknowns save for Christopher Walken, Jersey Boys is mostly relying on its built-in audience who’ve seen the Broadway hit. We’ve certainly seen our share of pictures based on Broadway musicals that have been successful over recent years, including Chicago, Dreamgirls, Mamma Mia, and Les Miserables. On the other hand, Rock of Ages bombed two summers ago with only $38 million domestic.

The ceiling for Jersey Boys is around $25 million as I see it. If it gets beyond that, it would be quite a surprise. This type of adult fare is likely to succeed or fail based on how audiences like it and whether or not it receives small declines in subsequent weekends. I believe the likely scenario is for Jersey Boys to grow in the high teens or low 20s out of the gate.

Jersey Boys opening weekend prediction: $18.9 million

For my Think Like a Man Too prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/

Think Like a Man Too Box Office Prediction

This Friday we will see if Kevin Hart’s terrific 2014 continues with Think Like a Man Too, the sequel to his surprise 2012 near blockbuster. The original got off to an impressive $33 million opening two years ago on its way to a $91M domestic gross. This is especially strong considering it cost a reported $12 million to produce. Since that time, Hart’s drawing power at the multiplex has only increased as this January’s Ride Along debuted to $41 million and the ensemble piece About Last Night made $25 million out of the gate in February.

With a supporting cast including Michael Ealy, Jerry Ferrera, Gabrielle Union, Regina Hall, Meagan Good, and Taraji P. Henson – Think Like a Man Too should succeed in bringing in African-American audiences and particularly females who made up 63% of the original’s opening weekend gross. There is one difference between this and the original and Ride Along – there is much more competition with its summer release. In particular, the second weekend of 22 Jump Street will still be bringing in the comedy crowds.

I believe Man Too should outshine the premiere gross of its predecessor but won’t quite reach Ride Along‘s level. It could surpass my expectations and a gross of $45 million wouldn’t shock me, but I’m going with high 30s for my prediction.

Think Like a Man Too opening weekend prediction: $38.2 million

For my Jersey Boys prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

 

 

 

 

 

Box Office Predictions: June 13-15

Two very different sequels debut Friday and both are expected to inject a shot of adrenaline to the summer box office. DreamWorks animated How to Train Your  Dragon 2 and the R rated Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy 22 Jump Street are the newbies and you can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/22-jump-street-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I expect both sequels to open north of what their predecessors accomplished and I’m estimating this will be the first (and probably only) summer 2014 weekend that sees two pictures open above $50M.

The Fault in Our Stars is the current champ and it got off to a terrific start. However, it’s likely to suffer a big decline in weekend #2 due to many of its fans rushing to see it out of the gate. Maleficent in its third weekend should lose around half its audience and the same bodes for Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow.

If Fault drops as far as I’m predicting, it could create a real race for #3 with Maleficent.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $53.1 million

3. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million (representing a drop of 62%)

4. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

While I was right on point with this past weekend’s holdovers, I didn’t give either of the new entries quite enough credit.

The Fault in Our Stars dominated with a terrific $48 million debut – beyond my $43.1M projection. The book’s fans came out in droves and the pic managed to quadruple its meager budget in its initial weekend. As mentioned above, it’s likely to suffer a precipitous drop in weekend #2, but even if it does – Fault is unquestionably one of the season’s major sleepers.

Maleficent held up decently in its sophomore frame with $34.2 million – right on pace with my $34M estimate. The Disney feature has earned $128M so far and a $200M domestic gross is within reach.

Edge of Tomorrow couldn’t quite capitalize on its rock solid reviews and the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner opened with a so-so $28.7 million. It did manage to top my $23.7M prediction, but considering its $178M massive budget – this is a letdown.

At fourth in its third weekend was X-Men: Days of Future Past with $15.1 million, on pace with my $14.9M estimate. The flick has made $189 million so far. In fifth was the Seth MacFarlane bomb A Million Ways to Die in the West with $7.3 million in weekend two, on par with my $7.1M projection. West has made only $30 million in ten days and it struggle to reach $50M.

That’s all for now, folks!

 

22 Jump Street Box Office Prediction

Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum are back in action with this Friday’s 22 Jump Street, the sequel to the successful 2012 21 Jump Street, which is loosely based on the 1980s Johnny Depp TV series. The original made $35 million in its debut weekend on the way to a $138 million domestic gross. This is expected to outshine that.

While 22 Jump Street is highly unlikely to match what How to Train Your Dragon 2 earns next weekend, it should very easily settle for a second place premiere. Word of mouth has been terrific – most critics are saying it improves upon its predecessor and it stands at 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. With costars Ice Cube, Dave Franco, and Rob Riggle back in the mix (and some reported celebrity cameos), audience anticipation and goodwill left over from the first should lead this to solid results for Columbia Pictures and MGM.

Both Hill and Tatum have seen their stars rise since 21 over two years ago. The big question to me is whether this posts the largest comedy opening so far in 2014. To do that it would need to debut higher than the $49 million of Neighbors from Hill’s buddy Seth Rogen. My prediction puts it just beyond that to claim victory.

22 Jump Street opening weekend prediction: $53.1 million

For my How to Train Your Dragon 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

How to Train Your Dragon 2 Box Office Prediction

With a surprisingly serious dearth of animated features for the kiddos this summer, DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 appears poised to breathe some fire into the box office when it opens Friday. Opening ultra-wide on approximately 4,100 screens, Dragon 2 is the sequel to the 2010 original that grossed $43.7 million in its March debut on its way to a $217 million domestic haul. The numbers for the sequel are expected to be quite higher and its premiere could easily double the first weekend of its predecessor.

Featuring the voices of Jay Baruchel, America Ferrera, Jonah Hill, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Kristen Wiig and Cate Blanchett – Dragon so far stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and it’ll surely be a candidate for Best Animated Feature come Oscar time. While summer 2013 saw a slew of animated features vying for attention, this season is different. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is really the only game in town with just Planes: Fire&Rescue coming in mid July. With a lack of the usual genre fare for family audiences, their demographic should flock to this.

A legit question is whether this could challenge Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $95 million debut which still stands as 2014’s highest. I don’t think it’ll quite get there, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me. I’ll predict it gets just past double what the first did out of the gate and it should have healthy legs in subsequent weekends.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 opening weekend prediction: $88.7 million

For my 22 Jump Street prediction, click here:

22 Jump Street Box Office Prediction

May Box Office Report: Winners and Losers

May kicked off the 2014 summer movie season and, per usual, there were successes and failures. There were ten wide releases during the month and, as I see it, there was a 40% success rate among them. Let’s talk about them in the May edition of Winners and Losers.

Winner: Neighbors

The only successful comedy of the month came with solid reviews (73% on Rotten Tomatoes) and robust box office (should top out close to $150 million). It marked the largest domestic opening ever for star Seth Rogen. Neighbors could end up as the season’s biggest grossing comedy, though 22 Jump Street may have something to say about that.

Loser: The Amazing Spider-Man 2

It isn’t that often you’ll see a movie that will gross just over $200 million be called a loser, but we have it here. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 received middling reviews and it will gross over $50M less than its predecessor from two years ago. Even worse, the original trilogy all grossed well over $300M with the first topping out at $403M. This is clearly a franchise that is not on the upswing (see what I did there?) and Sony needs to figure how to rectify it fast.

Winner: Godzilla

This is one is a winner with an asterisk. It opened at a terrific $93 million before suffering huge drop-offs in its second and third weekend. Still, it should reach over $200M and its international grosses are strong.

Loser: Blended

This marks another disappointment for Adam Sandler after recent flops Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy. This could struggle to make $50 million which will mark the lowest earner in the Sandler/Drew Barrymore trilogy. Grown Ups 3 anyone?

Winner: Maleficent

It only has one weekend under its belt, but the Disney title scored a strong $69 million and marked Angelina Jolie’s highest live-action all-time debut. With its A Cinemascore grade, long term prospects look encouraging.

Loser: Million Dollar Arm

Disney didn’t have as much luck here as the Jon Hamm sports drama got lost in the shuffle and is unlikely to reach $40 million. The studio was hoping it would reach the numbers of previous sports hits Miracle and Invincible, but it didn’t happen.

Winner: X-Men: Days of Future Past

Some thought this could be the biggest grossing flick of the franchise, but it will not top 2006’s The Last Stand and should be on equal footing with 2003’s X2. Still, it improved upon director predecessor’s First Class gross of $165 million and ensures the venerable series will continue.

Loser: A Million Ways to Die in the West

Two summers ago, Seth MacFarlane had the highest comedy grosser of the summer with Ted. This past weekend’s tepid $16.7M opening for West means it won’t even match what Ted did in its first weekend. Negative reviews didn’t help. For Seth, Ted 2 can’t come quick enough.

Loser: Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return

This one was an all-around disaster. It cost a reported $70 million to make and has only made a pathetic $8 million in four weeks. Ouch.

Loser: Moms’ Night Out

This faith-based comedy was thought of as a potential sleeper that could reach the female crowd. It didn’t and has only made $9 million in four weeks.

All in all, this was the lowest grossing May since 2010 and June will look to pick up the slack with How to Train Your Dragon 2, Transformers: Age of Extinction, 22 Jump Street, and The Fault in Our Stars, among others. You can rest assure I’ll have my June report up at month’s end!

Box Office Predictions: June 6-8

The June box office kicks off Friday with The Fault in Our Stars, the adaptation of John Green’s huge bestselling YA novel and the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Edge of Tomorrow. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/the-fault-in-our-stars-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/edge-of-tomorrow-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting big things for Fault and less than stellar results for Tomorrow. Truth be told, my estimates seem a bit higher than some on Fault and lower than others on Tomorrow. We shall see how it plays out and there’s the factor of Maleficent‘s second weekend. If my predictions don’t pan out, we could see a very real race between all three for the #1 spot, even though I’m saying it won’t happen.

The rest of the top five should be rounded out by holdovers X-Men: Days of Future Past and box office dud A Million Ways to Die in the West.

Here’s how I think it’ll play out:

1. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $34 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

4. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. A Million Ways to Die in the West

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)

Disney got Maleficent off to a rock solid start with Maleficent, which grossed $69.4 million in its debut – just ahead of my $66.2M projection. This marked the highest live-action opening ever for star Angelina Jolie.

In second was X-Men: Days of Future Past, which dropped further than I anticipated in weekend #2 with $32.5 million compared to my $37.1M estimate. While it’s doing well, Future will not reach the level of the highest grosser in the franchise The Last Stand from 2006.

The news was not good for Seth MacFarlane as his A Million Ways to Die in the West tanked with $16.7 million – less than half of my generous $33.6M prediction. Negative reviews likely contributed to the disastrous opening and West‘s entire domestic take should be less than what MacFarlane’s Ted made in its first weekend. Ouch.

Holdovers populated the remainder of top five with Godzilla in fourth at $12 million (below my $14.2M estimate) and Blended in fifth with $8.1 million (below my $9.6M projection).

That’s all for now friends!

Edge of Tomorrow Box Office Prediction

Described as sort of a sci-fi Groundhog Day, Tom Cruise headlines Edge of Tomorrow opening Friday and its release is a big box office question mark for Warner Bros. Directed by Bourne Identity and Mr. and Mrs. Smith‘s Doug Liman and costarring Emily Blunt and Bill Paxton, Tomorrow comes with a reported price tag of nearly $180 million dollars.

My suspicion is that it will need to do very well overseas to recoup its considerable budget. In its favor, Tomorrow is garnering rock solid reviews with a current 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it has plenty going against it. Cruise is not the box office force he once was and only the fourth Mission: Impossible surpassed $100M in the last five years. While this would seem to be a picture that women may join their husbands for, they might be attending The Fault in Our Stars (or Maleficent) instead. Additionally, I feel the marketing campaign hasn’t done a great job of showing what Tomorrow is really about – other than being an expensive looking sci-fi flick.

In April of 2013, Cruise’s Oblivion got off to a promising $37 million start before its eventual $89 million domestic take. It’s certainly possible that Edge of Tomorrow could reach that number, but I’m skeptical. I feel it will likely open at around the quarter century mark and not reach $100M stateside when all is said and done.

Edge of Tomorrow opening weekend prediction: $23.7 million

For my The Fault in Our Stars prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/the-fault-in-our-stars-box-office-prediction/