With the best reviews of the Rocky franchise since the Oscar winning original nearly forty years ago, Creed enters the box office ring over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. It hopes to ride some seriously positive buzz to impressive numbers and it may well succeed.
Sylvester Stallone reprises his role as Rocky Balboa for the seventh time. Yet this time, Stallone has handed over the directorial duties to Fruitvale Station‘s Ryan Coogler and that film’s star Michael B. Jordan stars in the role of Apollo Creed’s son trying to make his way to boxing glory. He’s mentored by Stallone iconic Balboa, who’s earned Academy Awards buzz for his performance. It would mark his second nomination and it would be for playing the same role when he was nominated in 1976 for the first Rocky.
Reviews have been strong as Creed currently stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. My feeling is that strong word of mouth should propel this to a healthy Turkey weekend debut and it could subsequently hold up well in further frames.
Creed opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $27.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Pixar usually isn’t in the business of releasing two titles a year, but they are in 2015 as The Good Dinosaur opens Wednesday for the long Thanksgiving weekend. Indeed this is the first time the Disney owned franchise has put out a double feature in one year and this summer’s Inside Out was the studio’s second highest domestic grosser with $356 million in sales.
The Good Dinosaur has the good fortune of being about dinosaurs in a very strong year for them as Jurassic World ruled the summer frame. Disney has played the Turkey Day box office game before to fine results: 2010’s Tangled made $48 million for the three day weekend and $68 million for the Wednesday to Sunday portion and 2013’s Frozen earned $67 million for the traditional weekend with a $93 million five day gross.
Where will this roam in comparison to those titles? I don’t see this making as much as Frozen, which had rapturous reviews. Dinosaur has received positive notices so far, but not to the fawning level of Frozen (or Inside Out for that matter). I do, however, think it’ll manage to outdo what Tangled did five years ago. I’ll forecast a three day debut in the mid to high 50s with a high 70s gross for the extended frame. That could put it in close competition for the #1 spot with the final Hunger Games, depending on how that performs this weekend and how it holds up in its second.
The Good Dinosaur opening weekend prediction: $56.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $78.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The fourth and final installment of the wildly successful Hunger Games franchise debuts this weekend with Mockingjay – Part 2. Additionally, we have openers with the raunchy Christmas comedy The Night Before featuring Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt and thriller Secret in Their Eyes with Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Jennifer Lawrence and company should very easily top the charts and I’ve predicted the second Mockingjay edition will just manage to top what part 1 opened at.
The real battle could be for #2 as holdover champs Spectre and The Peanuts Movie could compete for the runner-up spot with The Night Before. As for Secret in Their Eyes, this seems to be flying under the radar and I have it a close competition for the five spot with the sophomore weekend of Love the Coopers.
And with that, a top six predictions for the weekend:
Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2
Predicted Gross: $124.2 million
2. The Night Before
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
3. Spectre
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Love the Coopers
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 35%)
6. Secret in Their Eyes
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
Box Office Results (November 13-15)
As anticipated, Spectre and The Peanuts Movie continued to dominate the box office, though the 24th 007 adventure held up a bit better and the Charlie Brown family pic dipped a little further than my projections. Meanwhile, all three new entries didn’t meet my estimates.
Spectre held the top spot for the second weekend in a row with $33.6 million, above my $30.4M prediction for a two week total of $128M while The Peanuts Movie earned $24 million for second place, under my $28.9M projection. Peanuts has made $82M so far.
Third place belonged to newcomer Christmas ensemble comedy Love the Coopers with a middling $8.3 million, under my $11.3M forecast. Ridley Scott’s The Martian was fourth in its seventh weekend with $6.7 million. My estimate? $6.7M! Gold star! That Matt Damon mega-hit stands at $207M domestically. The Chilean mining drama The 33 stumbled with just $5.7 million for fifth place, well under my generous $10M projection.
Finally, the football drama My All-American was DOA for an 11th place showing with only $1.3 million compared to my $3.8M estimate.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Even with its high profile cast of Oscar nominees and winners, this Friday’s Secret in Their Eyes may well be another fall 2015 adult themed title that fails to bring in an audience of any major significance. The film, from Breach director and Hunger Games and Captain Phillips screenwriter Billy Ray, is an FBI thriller based on an Oscar-winning 2009 Argentine effort and this remake stars Chiwetel Ejiofor, Nicole Kidman, and Julia Roberts.
Secret seems to be flying pretty far under the radar and it’s picked up zero Oscar buzz, which could have helped. As mentioned, we’ve seen adult themed titles with big stars like Our Brand is Crisis, Burnt, and Steve Jobs all stumble recently and I have a feeling this is headed down a similar path.
Secret in Their Eyes opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
For my The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 prediction, click here:
The final installment of the wildly popular franchise based on Suzane Collins’s novels hits screens next Friday as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opens. Francis Lawrence returns to direct and Jennifer Lawrence is back leading her impressive cast that includes Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Julianne Moore, Donald Sutherland, Sam Chaflin, Jena Malone, Stanley Tucci, Jeffrey Wright, and Philip Seymour Hoffman (in his final film role). So far, this is getting better reviews than Part 1‘s 65% Rotten Tomatoes score as this stands at 88% currently.
While all entries in this series have made major bucks, it is worth noting that predecessor Mockingjay – Part 1 came in below the first two flicks. Let’s take a trip down box office history lane with this franchise that began in spring 2012:
The Hunger Games
Opening: $152 million with $408 million overall domestic gross
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Opening: $158 million with $424 overall domestic gross
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
Opening: $121 million with $337 million overall domestic gross
I find it unlikely that the final tale will outdo the first two, but it could edge out Part 1 simply due to the fact that it’s the last one. It has become commonplace for studios to divide a franchise’s finale installment into two parts. We’ve seen it with Harry Potter and Twilight and Lionsgate did just that here (we’ll see this tactic employed again in the future with the Divergent and Avengers series).
My gut tells me this performs similar to what Part 2 of the last Twilight picture accomplished by making about $3-6 million more that what its predecessor debuted to.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opening weekend prediction: $124.2 million
Three new movies populate the marketplace this weekend: Christmas comedy Love the Coopers, true life Chilean mining disaster pic The 33, and football drama My All-American. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I find it highly unlikely that any of them will challenge the box office domination of Spectre or The Peanuts Movie, which will both be entering their sophomore frames. In fact, while I see Coopers and The 33 battling for the third spot and My All-American opening outside the top five, the real drama could be between Bond vs. Snoopy for the #1 position.
That’s because Spectre opened below most expectations, including my own. The last two Bond flicks (Quantum of Solace and Skyfall) experienced 60 and 53 percent second week drops, respectively, and I anticipate this one sliding somewhere in between those two figures.
The Peanuts Movie should not dip near as precipitously in its follow-up frame. I believe it will lose around a third of its audience and my prediction has it within very close striking distance to 007.
Ridley Scott’s The Martian should round out the top five. My $3.8 million estimate for My All-American will likely put it at the #8 spot behind Goosebumps and Bridge of Spies.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Spectre
Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)
2. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 35%)
3. Love the Coopers
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
4. The 33
Predicted Gross: $10 million
5. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)
Box Office Results (November 6-8)
While it’s been setting records overseas, Daniel Craig’s fourth Bond pic Spectre didn’t quite match expectations while still giving the franchise its second best start in history. With its mixed reviews, the film took in $70.4 million, well below my $91.3M forecast. The previous entry, the acclaimed Skyfall, still easily maintains its status as largest opener domestically with its $88M from three years. Spectre opened closer to 2008’s Quantum of Solace, which earned $67M.
The Peanuts Movie opened right in line with expectations with an encouraging $44.2 million, on pace with my $43.4M forecast. With its solid A Cinemascore grade, look for this to start a new family franchise and perform well in the coming weeks.
The rest of the top five was filled with holdovers as The Martian was third with $9 million (ahead of my $7.7M prediction) for a total of $196M. Goosebumps took fourth with $6.8 million (in line with my $6M projection) for an overall $66M gross. Bridge of Spies was fifth with $5.8 million (which is exactly what I predicted… pat on back). It’s made $54M so far.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Seems like there’s been a whole lot of sports dramas recently as this Friday’s My All-American is, well, another one. The independent college football 1970s period piece, based on a true story, focuses on University of Texas player Freddie Steinmark. It stars Finn Witrock, Sarah Bolger, Robin Tunney, and Aaron Eckhart.
Opening on a relatively low 1500 approximate screens, it’s hard to imagine this making a run at any sort of solid business. It is worth noting that its director, Angelo Pizzo, is the man responsible for the screenplays of two genre classics, Hoosiers and Rudy. Still, if this gets past $5 million I’d be fairly surprised and it’s more probable that the football drama people are really waiting for is this December’s Concussion with Will Smith.
My All-American opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Telling the true life story of the 2010 Chilean mining disaster, The 33 hits theaters next Friday and will attempt to jog moviegoers short term memory into a trip to the multiplex. The cast includes Antonio Banderas, Rodrigo Santoro, Juliette Binoche, James Brolin, and Lou Diamond Phillips.
The pic isn’t subtitled and that’s likely a choice made to cater to American audiences. Will it work? I’m not so sure. Strong reviews could have helped yet they’ve been mixed with a current rating of 44% on Rotten Tomatoes.
As I see it, The 33 could struggle to reach double digits out of the gate but I’ll predict it just manages to get there.
The Christmas season hits the box office in mid November as the holiday themed Love the Coopers opens next Friday. With an all-star cast including John Goodman, Diane Keaton, Marisa Tomei, Olivia Wilde, Ed Helms, Anthony Mackie, June Squibb, Amanda Seyfried, and Alan Arkin, the family affair will look to cash in with audiences looking for some Xmas cheer.
Its prospects are a bit sketchy. Trailers and TV spots for Coopers have done little to make it look like another run of the mill big ensemble experience. Its best hope is to bring in a female audience looking for a diversion from James Bond, which should still be performing like gang busters in weekend #2.
That might be enough to help it reach double digits, though I don’t believe that’s guaranteed. I could actually see this debuting in line with The Family Stone, a similarly themed comedy which opened 10 years ago. Solid word of mouth could push it to perform in subsequent weekends yet that remains to be seen.
Love the Coopers opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million
The box office doldrums over the past couple of weeks should thankfully come to an end with November’s arrival and the release of two very high profile releases: 24th James Bond pic Spectre and Charlie Brown and company returning in the 3D animated The Peanuts Movie. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
As you’ll see, I have Spectre actually debuting slightly bigger than previous entry Skyfall, though it’s worth noting that some prognosticators have it earning a bit less. We shall see.
The Peanuts Movie should also get off to a sterling start and I expect it to play well into the Thanksgiving season.
The remainder of the top five should be filled with holdover table scraps as the two newbies should dominate the frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Spectre
Predicted Gross: $91.3 million
2. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $43.4 million
3. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)
Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)
In a very quiet Halloween weekend at the multiplexes, The Martian retained its #1 spot for the fourth weekend in five frames with $11.7 million (in range with my $10.8M projection) for a total of $183M. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon collaboration is just the third movie of 2015 to manage a first place showing for 4 weeks (joining American Sniper and Furious 7). Its impressive reign will certainly come to an end with 007 and Snoopy coming in.
Staying in second was Goosebumps with $9.8 million (a bit under my $11.2M estimate) for a solid three week tally of $56M.
Bridge of Spies continued to hold up well from week to week with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.9M projection and its total stands at $45M.
Spots four and five belonged to holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five. Hotel Transylvania 2 was fourth with $5.8 million ($156M total gross) and Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter was fifth with $5.1 million for a weak two weekend total of just $19M.
That’s because the three newcomers that opened all posted less than expected results. Bradley Cooper’s Burnt was sixth with just $5 million, below my $8.9M estimate and represents two flops in a row for the actor after this summer’s Aloha.
Sandra Bullock’s critically panned Our Brand Is Crisis gave the actress the worst wide opening of her career with $3.2 million for eighth place, well below my $7.8M prediction.
And, finally, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse was dead on arrival for a 12th place showing of $1.8 million, under my $4.2M forecast.
This trio of newcomers represents more October flops in a month full of them, including Steve Jobs, The Last Witch Hunter, Pan, Jem and the Holograms, Rock the Kasbah, Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, and Crimson Peak.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
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