Improbably based on a true story, the comedy Tag hits theaters next weekend. Based on a 2013 WallStreetJournal article, the film focuses on a group of pals who engage in a long-term version of the kids game. Stars include Ed Helms, Jeremy Renner, Jon Hamm, Jake Johnson, Isla Fisher, Annabelle Wallis, Hannibal Buress, Rashida Jones, Leslie Bibb, Brian Dennehy, and Lil Rel Howery. It marks the directorial debut of Jeff Tomsic.
The ads hype the “actually based on real stuff” angle, but I felt the trailer could’ve been a bit stronger. I’m not confident this holds any significant breakout potential. The Warner Bros release would likely love the achieve the $17 million debut of this spring’s GameNight and that might be the generous ceiling here. I’d say even with the cast of familiar faces, it doesn’t have the relative star power or laugh out loud promo materials. And I wouldn’t count Renner as this isn’t the genre he’s known for… see TheHouse from a year ago.
Outside of the Hangover franchise, Helms has had a rough road recently as FatherFigures was a dud and even his Vacation reboot fell a bit shy of $60 million three summers back. I’ll project this reaches low double digits to mid teens for a so-so showing. As we await the blockbuster comedic pic of this season, I have a hunch Tag is not it.
Disney/Pixar is back on the summer scene as Incredibles 2 blasts into theaters next weekend. The superhero comedy sequel is the follow-up to the studio’s sixth blockbuster that opened in November 2004. Fourteen years later, this is Pixar’s 20th assured mega grosser. Brad Bird, who made the original, is back in the director’s seat after shepherding live-action pics Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol and Tomorrowland. Returning voices from the original cast include Craig T. Nelson, Holly Hunter, Samuel L. Jackson, Sarah Vowell, and John Ratzenberger. Fresh voices for part 2 include Jonathan Banks, Bob Odenkirk, Catherine Keener, Isabella Rossellini, and Sophia Bush.
The question mark here is not whether Incredibles 2 is another huge hit for Pixar (it will be). Rather, the question is whether it sets the all-time opening record for the Mouse Factory’s multi-billion dollar subsidiary. In order to do so, it would need to surpass the current one held by 2016’s Finding Dory. That sequel earned $135 million in the same weekend two summers ago.
For some context, the predecessor to Dory (2003’s Finding Nemo) made $70 million out of the gate with an eventual gross of $339 million. As for the first Incredibles? It did exactly the same in its first weekend ($70 million) and went on to earn $261 million domestically. Of course, most Pixar titles take on long shelf lives and introduce themselves to a new generation of youngsters. The Incredibles is no exception and stands as one of the most appreciated studio offerings.
I see no reason why Incredibles 2 wouldn’t perform very similarly to Dory. That said, I’m reluctant to project that it will get to $150 million plus or anything in that stratosphere. I’ll say this just manages to achieve a personal Pixar high. In doing so, just as Nemo and Incredibles got to the same number in weekend 1, so essentially will the sequels.
Incredibles 2 opening weekend prediction: $138.1 million
A trio of new titles open wide at the box office this weekend as the unremarkable two-week reign of Solo: A Star Wars Story looks to close. They are the reboot of heist caper franchise Ocean’s 8 with Sandra Bullock and other notable actresses, critically acclaimed horror pic Hereditary, and crime thriller Hotel Artemis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
My low 40s opening for Ocean’s 8 easily puts it in the #1 spot. That estimate gives it the largest debut for the franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade when George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and others had their trilogy.
The biggest question mark of the weekend to me is undoubtedly Hereditary. Reviews have been terrific, but critical praise doesn’t always equate to major dollars for this genre. Two similarly heralded entries from the same studio – The Witch and It Comes at Night – made less than $10 million out of the gate. Hereditary could potentially suffer the same fate, but I’ve got it pegged to manage low double digits. If the pic over performs, it could nab the #2 spot. If it hits in the range I’m projecting, it would be fourth behind Solo and Deadpool 2.
Adrift premiered right in line with my expectations and it may find itself in a close race with Avengers: Infinity War for the fifth slot. I’m giving the superheroes an edge.
As for Hotel Artemis, I’m not expecting much and my forecast has gone from $7.7 million to now $5 million over the course of the last week. That number puts it outside the top five.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Ocean’s 8
Predicted Gross: $42.6 million
2. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Hereditary
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
5. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. Adrift
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (June 1-3)
All eyes were on how Solo: A Star Wars Story would perform in its second weekend after a majorly lackluster premiere. The verdict? Not good. The Star Wars stand-alone fell a precipitous 65% to $29.3 million, well behind my $37.3 million estimate. The two-week tally stands at $148 million.
Deadpool 2 was second with $23.1 million in weekend #3, topping my $20.9 million projection for $254 million total.
Newcomer Adrift was right in line with my take – placing third at $11.6 million (I said $11.7 million).
Avengers: Infinity War was fourth with $10.5 million, ahead of my $8.6 million projection for $643 million in its considerable coffers.
Book Club rounded out the top five and I didn’t have it in there. It earned $7 million and sits at $47 million overall.
Blumhouse’s Upgrade exceeded my prediction with $4.6 million. I was lower at $2.8 million. The well reviewed sci-fi horror flick’s number is pretty decent considering its meager budget and low 1400 plus theater count.
Last and indeed least, Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point was a complete dud coming in at 9th place with a measly $2.3 million (well below my $6.6 million guesstimate). I wrote about its failure yesterday here:
While most box office forecasters such as myself will rightfully pontificate on the continued failure of Solo: AStarWarsStory (it’s fading badly in its sophomore frame after a disappointing debut), there’s another story this weekend. This one involves the highly dwindling fortunes at multiplexes of Mr. Johnny Knoxville.
The MTV show “Jackass” premiered in 2000 and quickly became a sensation with younger viewers glued to Knoxville’s dangerous and often hilarious stunts. Paramount didn’t wait long before taking the half hour program and expanding it to the silver screen. In 2002, Jackass: TheMovie debuted to $22 million and grossed $64 million overall domestically. Four years later, Jackass: NumberTwo improved upon its predecessor’s performance with $29 million for its start and $72 million total. In 2010, the gravy train kept on rolling as Jackass3–D made an astonishing $50 million out of the gate and earned $117 million by the end of its franchise best run.
In 2013, JackassPresents: BadGrandpa was a bit of a question mark. It wasn’t an official entry in the series and was a test of Knoxville’s potency as his signature series had reached its conclusion. However, BadGrandpa answered any questions with a strong $32 million debut and $102 million overall gross.
Since that time half a decade ago, Knoxville has been largely absent from the big screen. This weekend’s ActionPoint was a hoped for return to box office dominance. After all, it combines the stunt work and R rated comedy that he’s known for.
Last week, my initial projection for Point put it in the low double digits – far from the $20 million plus dollars of his previous works. By Thursday, that prediction had dropped to a measly $6.6 million. And now early numbers from the weekend suggest that ActionPoint will only make $2 million, putting it in 10th place and below the fifth weekend of Overboard.
What on earth happened? In my original projection, I asked if Knoxville’s audience had outgrown him. The answer seems to be a resounding yes. It also didn’t help that Paramount didn’t even have faith enough in it to screen for critics (its current Rotten Tomatoes score is just 16%). Perhaps its concept wasn’t interesting to even his fans. After all, a demented Grandpa is easier to grasp.
The huge failure here calls to question Knoxville’s future at the box office. Maybe it’s time to get the whole Jackass crew together for a reunion and see what happens… because there’s no doubt the amusement park in ActionPoint is permanently closed.
Global Road Entertainment is hoping audiences check into the Hotel Artemis when it debuts next weekend. The futuristic action flick comes from Drew Pearce in his directorial debut (he’s best known for co-writing Iron Man 3). Focusing on an underground hospital for the criminal element, Artemis stars Jodie Foster (in her first film appearance in five years) alongside Sterling K. Brown, Sofia Boutella, Jeff Goldblum, Brian Tyree Henry, Jenny Slate, Zachary Quinto, Charlie Day, and Dave Bautista.
The biggest hurdle for Artemis looks to be if general audiences are even aware of its existence. It seems the marketing campaign has been a bit low-key. Competition is a factor as Hereditary (while a horror pic) could be competing for a similar crowd. Reviews if they’re positive (none yet) could help a bit, but I’ll project there’s a significant amount of vacancy for its showings.
Hotel Artemis opening weekend prediction: $5 million
The horror thriller Hereditary generated a lot of buzz when it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival way back in January and A24 unleashes it to audiences next weekend. Marking the directorial debut of Ari Aster, early reviews suggest a highly effective and scary experience. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 100% (never a bad selling point for TV spots). Toni Collette stars alongside Alex Wolff, Gabriel Byrne, Milly Shapiro, and Ann Dowd.
This particular genre is often the hardest to predict as horror movies can vastly over or under perform. It’s also perhaps the genre where reviews truly don’t mean a lot. For instance, 2016’s The Witch and last year’s It Comes at Night both had critics on their side in a major way. Their respective debuts were only $8.8 million and $5.9 million (with It Comes at Night being released on the same June weekend as this is). On the other hand, something like A Quiet Place took in $50 million for its start just a few weeks ago.
So what’s a prognosticator like me to do? I’ll admit that this is a tough one and I foresee a wide range for the opening of Hereditary. It won’t come anywhere near the earnings of A Quiet Place, but debuting around $20 million wouldn’t shock me. The problem is that if it fell to high single digits or low double digits, that wouldn’t really shock me either.
Fair warning: this is an estimate that may fluctuate during the next nine days. For the time being, I’ll say Hereditary posts an opening in the low double digits to possibly low teens as it will hope to leg out decently based on buzz in subsequent frames.
Hereditary opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million
A franchise is reborn with a twist when Ocean’s 8 lands in theaters next weekend. It’s been over a decade since the Ocean’s 11-13 heist sagas with George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and a bunch of other famous faces being directed by Steven Soderbergh. Each entry made a little less at the box office as they went along, but they all opened between $35-$40 million. Soderbergh just produces here with Gary Ross taking over the directorial duties. He’s had hits such as Seabiscuit and The Hunger Games, but his most recent was the Matthew McConaughey flop Free State of Jones.
The aforementioned twist is that it’s the ladies getting in on the thievery this time around. Sandra Bullock plays the sister of Clooney’s character from the first trilogy and she’s the mastermind of a crew that includes Cate Blanchett, Mindy Kaling, Sarah Paulson, Rihanna, Helena Bonham Carter, and Awkwafina. Anne Hathaway is the target of the score with James Corden, Dakota Fanning, and host of celebrity cameos included among the cast.
Ocean’s 8 looks to bring in a sizable female audience and their male counterparts may not mind coming along for the ride. The high-profile cast, especially Bullock, certainly doesn’t hurt and this stands a real shot at having the highest Ocean’s debut of all. That’s not guaranteed as I could see the low bar being in the low 30s. That would fall under the previous low of $36 million by Ocean’s Thirteen in 2007.
However, I’m leaning more towards a high 30s to possibly mid 40s roll out for Sandra and company. I’ll estimate it somewhere in between.
Ocean’s 8 opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
The post Memorial Day weekend gives us a trio of vowel led titles as romantic disaster drama Adrift with Shailene Woodley, Johnny Knoxville comedy Action Point, and Blumhouse horror pic Upgrade all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I don’t expect any of the newbies to exactly set the box office ablaze, but have Adrift getting over Action Point (if for nothing else than the higher theater count). My meager $2.8 estimate for Upgrade leaves it far outside the top 5.
The top two (and perhaps 3) should remain unchanged, but the real story of the weekend may be how far Solo: A Star Wars Story drops. It shouldn’t have trouble remaining #1, but as discussed in my post from last night, it came in considerably below expectations:
Press chatter since the undeniably disappointing premiere of Solo has solely focused on just that and it could cause the film to take a hefty dip in its sophomore frame. In addition, tent pole features opening over the Memorial weekend typically experience large declines anyway. Last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales fell 64%. I believe a better comp might be Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull from 10 years ago. It made $100 million over the three-day portion of the holiday weekend and dipped 55% in weekend #2. That seems more feasible for Solo, however if it fell over 60% it wouldn’t exactly be shocking.
Deadpool 2 should remain in second place while Avengers: Infinity War could find itself locked in battle for third with Adrift or possibly Action Point. I’m giving Adrift an edge.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the beginning of June:
1. Solo: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $37.3 million
2. Deadpool 2
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Adrift
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
4. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Action Point
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (May 25-28)
As discussed already, Solo: A Star Wars Story came in far below expectations with $103 million over the four-day weekend. That’s, ahem, a bit under my forecast of $151.3 million. Just days ago, the stand-alone Star Wars entry was a strong candidate to break the previous $139 million Memorial Day record held by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. It ended up as only the 7th highest holiday haul.
Deadpool 2 dropped to second with $53.8 million, in line with my $55.2 million prediction for a two-week total of $218 million.
Avengers: Infinity War was third at $22.4 million (I was right there at $22.5 million) for $627 million overall.
Book Club was fourth with $13.1 million in its second weekend, topping my $11.7 million projection for $35 million total. The comedy is scoring with a female and older audience and turning into a nice midsize summer performer.
Life of the Party rounded out the top five with $6.8 million, topping my $5.3 million prediction. It’s made $40 million total.
Blumhouse Productions is out with its latest low-budget flick that hopes to generate high dollar figures when Upgrade debuts next weekend. The sci-fi horror revenge pic comes from director Leigh Whannell, best known for his involvement in the Insidious franchise (including directing its third chapter). Logan Marshall-Green, Betty Gabriel (best known as the creepy housekeeper in Get Out), and Harrison Gilbertson are among the cast. Early reviews have been decent as it currently stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Upgrade is slated to open on a rather low 1400 screens and that will limit its potential. I would not anticipate this coming anywhere near the massive successes that Jason Blum and his studio have achieved with titles like the aforementioned Get Out, Split, or Happy Death Day. Instead it appears destined to premiere similar to BH Tilt’s lesser offerings like The Belko Experiment, The Green Inferno, or Incarnate – none of which managed to clear $5 million for their starts.
Two stars known for their appearances in YA franchises team up for the romantic drama Adrift, setting sail in theaters next weekend. The pic stars Shailene Woodley (of The Fault in Our Stars and Divergent fame) and Sam Claflin (of The Hunger Games series) as sailors caught up in a perfect storm. Set in 1983 and based on a true story, the feature comes from Icelandic director Baltasar Kormakur – who made 2 Guns and Everest.
Adrift will attempt to bring in a female audience familiar with the two leads, but I believe it may face a rough forecast reaching them. There seems to be minimal buzz regarding the project. In my view, reaching low teens would be a high water mark and I have a feeling low double digits could be more likely.
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