Dreamworks Animation closes out its animated trilogy next weekend with the release of HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld. The critically acclaimed franchise began in 2010 with a sequel that followed four years later. Dean DeBlois, maker of the first two, returns to direct the third installment that comes with a reported budget of nearly $130 million. Actors providing voices include Jay Baruchel, America Ferrera, Cate Blanchett, Craig Ferguson, Gerard Butler, F. Murray Abraham, Jonah Hill, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, and Kristin Wiig.
Nearly a decade ago, the original Dragon debuted to $43 million and legged out nicely to an overall $217 domestic gross. The 2014 follow-up topped the opening of part 1 with $49 million. However, it ended up taking in $177 million total. While the studio certainly hopes for robust stateside sales, the series has been a juggernaut overseas (Dragon2 made $621 million worldwide). TheHiddenWorld is out in numerous foreign markets already and taken in $85 million thus far.
I’ll project this threequel gets in the range of what preceded it and put it in the middle of what they accomplished.
HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld opening weekend prediction: $44.7 million
For my FightingwithMyFamily prediction, click here:
It’s the four-day President’s Day weekend at the box office with Valentines Day falling on Thursday. That means the trio of newcomers out are hitting screens during the week. They are Blumhouse horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U, James Cameron penned sci-fi graphic novel adaptation Alita: Battle Angel, and romantic comedy satire Isn’tItRomantic. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Before the weekend began, it was pretty much a given that TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart would repeat rather easily at #1 over this long frame. Now with it’s much less than forecasted debut (more on that below), there’s some uncertainty. What should help is that both DeathDay and Romantic come out on Wednesday with Alita following on Thursday. This particular weekend typically sees small declines for holdovers considering the extra day involved. In 2014, the first LegoMovie dipped a scant 9%. I’ve got the sequel dropping more than that, but I’ve still topping the charts.
That is, of course, if none of the newbies over perform and that’s certainly possible (especially with DeathDay part deux in my opinion). Yet the Wednesday premiere still leads me to think it could be a tad front loaded.
That means I have slots 2-4 reserved for the debuts with WhatMenWant rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I have the high-five shaking out and keep in mind these projections are for Friday through Monday.
1. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
2. HappyDeathDay2U
Predicted Gross: $22 million (Friday to Monday); $28.6 million (Wednesday to Monday)
3. Alita: BattleAngel
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)
4. Isn’tItRomantic
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (Friday to Monday); $20.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)
5. WhatMenWant
Predicted Gross: $13 million
BoxOfficeResults (February8–10)
It was a weekend with four newcomers and they all came in under my expectations and none more so than TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart. The animated sequel had no problem nabbing the top spot, but it was a hollow victory as it earned $34.1 million. That’s less than half of what its predecessor started with five years ago and well below my $48.6 million prediction. Warner Bros may be forced to rethink the future of the franchise while they cross their fingers for a minimal drop this weekend.
WhatMenWant opened in so-so fashion in second with $18.2 million, below my forecast of $26.4 million. The comedic remake with Taraji P. Henson came in on the low-end of its range.
Same story for ColdPursuit as the Liam Neeson action thriller was third with $11 million (I was higher at $12.8 million). Neeson received all the wrong kinds of publicity in the lead up to the release and it certainly didn’t help.
On a rare positive note for this weekend, TheUpside continued its remarkable hold in fourth with $7 million compared to my $5.8 million take. The gross is currently $85 million as the century club appears assured.
Glass, after two weeks in first, slid to fifth with $6.2 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and it’s scratching the $100 million mark at $98 million.
Horror flick TheProdigy was sixth with just $5.8 million, in line with my $6.1 million prediction. Look for it to disappear quickly.
This was a weekend where TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart was expected to easily nab the #1 spot at the box office. That mission was accomplished, but it did so with much less money than any prognosticator figured. The sequel to the 2014 original took in $34 million and that was about $20 million less than expected. I had a feeling it would under perform and forecasted a $48 million debut. However, I never figured a mid 30s premiere.
For some context, the first Lego experience five years ago made $69 million out of the gate and eventually earned $257 million domestically. In 2017, first franchise spin-off TheLegoBatmanMovie debuted to $53 million ($175 million total). The first sign of trouble came a few months later when TheLegoNinjagoMovie came in far under estimates with $20 million in its opening weekend and a lowly $59 million stateside. Yet some attributed the poor Ninjago performance to its limited niche audience.
TheSecondPart marked a hopeful return to form for Warner Bros considering it was a direct sequel to a picture that made over $250 million. There is no doubt that the number produced this weekend could block future plans for the series. Its best hope ahead could be the President’s Day weekend as the studio hopes it will have a small decline. Any way you cut it, though, part two will seriously come in under its predecessor. We now have two LegoMovie collapses in a row and it will be interesting to see how Warner handles it.
It might be a satire of romantic comedies, but Warner Bros is hoping Isn’tItRomantic brings in a Valentine’s and President’s Day crowd when it opens this Wednesday. Rebel Wilson plays a lovey dovey denier who finds herself in a rom com cinematic universe after being knocked out. Liam Hemsworth, Adam Devine, and Priyanka Chopra are in the supporting cast. Todd Strauss-Schulson directs.
As mentioned, Romantic will look for a female crowd that hopefully bring their dates. Wilson is no stranger to this holiday frame. Three years ago, she costarred in HowtoBeSingle and it grossed nearly $20 million for its long weekend start (Valentine’s Day fell on Sunday that year).
With Wednesday and Thursday (the 14th) factored in, this will likely make under that figure for the four-day frame and could even struggle to top $20 million for the six-day earnings. I’ll say it manages to just top it.
Isn’tItRomantic opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million (Friday to Monday); $20.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)
Based on a popular Japanese graphic novel, the sci-fi action spectacle Alita: BattleAngel is finally ready for release next Thursday. Robert Rodriguez serves as director with a screenplay from another well-known auteur by the name of James Cameron (as well as Laeta Kalogridis). Rosa Salazar provides the voice and motion capture work for the title character and other cast members include Christoph Waltz, Jennifer Connelly, Mahershala Ali, Ed Skrein, and Jackie Earle Haley.
Alita was originally slated for release last summer before being pushed back to December. The folks at 20th Century Fox moved it from that crowded marketplace to Valentine’s Day. However, other movies should still be a factor. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart will likely top the charts in its second frame while horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U opens and provides some direct audience competition.
The reported budget here is rumored to be possibly $200 million. The visuals have been praised while the film itself has had a mixed critical reaction (57% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). Alita is tracking to be a disappointment stateside considering the price tag and I agree with that assessment. I’ll say it manages high teens to low 20s for the traditional Friday to Monday portion of the Presidents Day frame, which should mean mid 20s when factoring in the Thursday gross.
Alita: BattleAngel opening weekend prediction: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)
Blumhouse looks to continue its impressive streak of low-budget slasher pics that turn hefty profits with the release of sequel HappyDeathDay2U next Wednesday. Christopher Landon is back in the director’s chair along with returning cast members Jessica Rothe, Israel Broussard, and Ruby Modine, in addition to LifeofPi star Suraj Sharma.
In October 2017, HappyDeathDay took its GroundhogDay meets the horror genre to solid box office results. It made $26 million for the opening weekend as its overall haul was front loaded (final gross was $55 million).
Part 2 might premiere with less for the traditional weekend, but the Wednesday debut and following four-day President’s Day frame could boost the six-day to a high 20s overall take.
HappyDeathDay2U opening weekend prediction: $22 million (Friday to Monday); $28.6 million (Wednesday to Monday)
After a sleepy box office weekend that’s normal for when the Super Bowl is played (which was sleepy as well), things pick up considerably in this second frame of February. There’s four newcomers that could populate those top four slots. They are the animated sequel TheLegoMovie2: The Second Part, Taraji P. Henson comedic remake WhatMenWant, Liam Neeson action thriller ColdPursuit, and horror flick TheProdigy. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
TheLego follow-up should have little trouble topping the charts, but I have it debuting significantly under the $69 million achieved by its predecessor four years ago.
I have WhatMenWant placing a strong second with ColdPursuit having a middling start in third. The five-spot could be a battle between TheProdigy and holdover TheUpside. The latter should experience a smaller drop than three-week champion Glass, which means it may fall from first to sixth.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. TheLegoMovie2:TheSecondPart
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
2. WhatMenWant
Predicted Gross: $26.4 million
3. ColdPursuit
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. TheProdigy
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
5. TheUpside
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
BoxOfficeResults (February1–3)
Super Bowl weekends are never bountiful ones at multiplexes and that held true this year. It was the worst SB frame in 19 years. Glass stayed in 1st with $9.5 million, cutting close to my $9.8 million prediction. Its total is $88 million.
TheUpside was close behind in second with $8.6 million (I said $9.1 million) for $75 million overall.
Action flick MissBala was the sole newbie and it was third with $6.8 million, ahead of my $5.8 million forecast. That’s nothing special, but not too shabby considering the reported $15 million budget.
Aquaman was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $5 million) for $323 million total. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.6 million). The Oscar favorite for Best Animated Feature is up to $175 million.
Orion Pictures hopes horror fans turn out next weekend with the release of TheProdigy. The fright fest casts “Orange Is the New Black” star Taylor Schilling as a mom who thinks her young son might be possessed by a demon. Jackson Robert Scott, most known as Georgie (the kid who got his arm ripped off by Pennywise in It), plays the boy. Nicholas McCarthy directs.
As has been said many times on this blog, this genre always has the possibility to surprise with a larger than anticipated opening. There’s no direct competition for horror watchers, but there’s three other pics debuting that should all premiere with bigger numbers (TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart, WhatMenWant, ColdPursuit).
The studio would be fortunate to see a rollout like 2016’s TheBoy, which managed nearly $11 million for its start. I don’t see it happening and I’ll project it makes a bit over half that figure.
TheProdigy opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million
For my TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart prediction, click here:
As they say, revenge is a film best served with Liam Neeson in it and Summit Entertainment hopes that holds true next weekend with ColdPursuit. The action thriller casts Neeson as a snow plow driver avenging the murder of his son with his particular set of skills. Norwegian director Hans Petter Moland is behind the camera and costars include Laura Dern, Emmy Rossum, Tom Bateman, and William Forsythe.
We are a decade past the star’s career resurgence with the sleeper hit Taken and its two sequels. What followed were $20 million plus openers like Unknown and Non–Stop. The sub genre of Neeson tough guy flicks, however, has seen its grosses dwindle in recent years. AWalkAmongtheTombstones, RunAllNight, and last year’s TheCommuter all debuted in the low double digits to low teens range.
Reviews have been surprisingly strong and the Rotten Tomatoes score is at 93%. Several critics have praised an apparent well-placed sense of humor. Yet I’m skeptical that will give ColdPursuit a hot premiere. I’ll predict this falls right in line with his later entries.
ColdPursuit opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
For my TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart prediction, click here:
Paramount is banking on a significant African-American and female audience next weekend for WhatMenWant, a remake of the 2000 blockbuster WhatWomenWant with Mel Gibson and Helen Hunt. As the title suggests, this is a flip of the original with its lead character being able to hear the inner thoughts of the male species. Taraji P. Henson plays her with costars including Aldis Hodge, Tracy Morgan, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Pete Davidson, and Erykah Badu. Adam Shankman, maker of BringingDowntheHouse and ThePacifier, directs.
The gimmicky formula could be a success with its target audience. Its source material was a smash, debuting to $33 million and legging out to $182 million overall. Henson has starred in such high-profile hits as HiddenFigures, NoGoodDeed, and the ThinkLikeaMan pics.
Some of those efforts saw openings in the mid to high 20s and that’s exactly where I see this starting out at.
WhatMenWant opening weekend prediction: $26.4 million
For my TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart prediction, click here:
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