Tag: Box Office Results

April 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

Renfield Box Office Prediction
The Pope’s Exorcist Box Office Prediction
Suzume Box Office Prediction

Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.

Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).

The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.

Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.

Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $74.9 million

2. Renfield

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Air

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

4. Suzume

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

6. The Pope’s Exorcist

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (April 7-9)

Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.

John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.

Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.

Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.

Finally, faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.

Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you stream!

Until next time…

April 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate for Mario slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M

The Easter weekend starts early with Illumination Entertainment’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Ben Affleck’s sports drama Air rising in multiplexes on Wednesday. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Box Office Prediction
Air Box Office Prediction

It’s Mario that should have no trouble ruling the holiday frame. Coming from the studio behind the massive Despicable Me, Minions, and Sing franchises, this is likely to spawn another one. I’ve got it topping $90 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion and falling just shy of $130 million during its first five days.

Air could certainly exceed forecasts with its strong reviews and frequent promotion during the March Madness tournament. I’m projecting a low double digits output for the three-day and high teens for the five. The Friday to Sunday take would place it fourth. Expect it to have sturdy holds in subsequent weekends.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves may see a mid to high 50s dip in its sophomore frame while John Wick: Chapter 4 might experience a high 40s to 50% percentage drop. That would mean they fall a spot to 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

After a slightly better than anticipated beginning, His Only Son could take advantage of the Easter weekend with a l0w 30s slide for fifth.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

3. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

4. Air

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. His Only Son

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves matched or barely surpassed most prognostications with $37.2 million for the gold. That’s beyond my $32.7 million call. It’s a decent opening though not spectacular considering the reported $150 million budget (minus promotion). Factoring in overseas earnings, however, it might still spawn a franchise.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was second after its series best start. Down an understandable 62% at $28.3 million (I went a little higher at $31.5 million), the ten-day haul is $123 million.

Faith-based drama His Only Son, on less than 2000 screens, managed a sturdy $5.5 million (I was lower at $3.8 million). As mentioned, this may experience the lowest decline of the holdovers coming up.

Spots 4-6 were holdover sequels with Scream VI in fourth at $5.3 million compared to my $4.2 million projection. The tally is nearly at nine digits with $98 million.

Creed III was fifth with $5 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $148 million.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods was sixth at $4.6 million, in line with my $4.3 million forecast for a lowly $53 million (which is was its 2019 predecessor opened with).

Check out my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching “Movies at the Speed of Speculation” at your favorite podcasting engine…

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

March 31-April 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (03/29): I am significantly revising my His Only Son estimate from $6.1M to $3.9M. That puts it in sixth instead of third.

There could be a photo finish at this weekend’s box office between the premiere of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and second frame of John Wick: Chapter 4 after it managed a franchise best premiere. Other than Thieves, the faith-based drama His Only Son also rises in multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newbies here:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Box Office Prediction
His Only Son Box Office Prediction

While Dungeons certainly has a rabid fanbase and reviews are quite strong, I do wonder how limited its potential is with non-fans who may have zero interest. If this hit $40 million, I wouldn’t be surprised. Same goes for $25 million. That puts me in the middle.

Wick delivered the aforementioned series peak for Keanu and company (more on that below). If the sophomore frame dip is similar to predecessor John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum, it might find itself just behind Dungeons in second. I’m expecting a close battle.

His Only Son, like other titles in its genre, could outdo expectations just as Jesus Revolution did a few weeks ago. My mid single digits projections put it in third with sequels Creed III, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and Scream VI all in close proximity in the 4-6 slots.

Here’s how I envision it:

1. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $32.7 million

2. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $31.5 million

3. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

4. Shazam! Fury of the Gods

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

5. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

6. His Only Son

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 24-26)

There was little doubt that John Wick: Chapter 4 would continue each entry improving upon the opening of the other. The question was by how much. With the best reviews of the quartet, 4 got off to a $73.8 million start. That’s well beyond the $56 million achieved by the third chapter. I went on the highest end of anticipated ranges with $85.5 million. It didn’t get there, but this is a terrific result.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods plummeted 69% in weekend #2 with $9.7 million. I was more generous at $12.9 million. The DCEU sequel (with $45 million) has made less in 10 days than its 2019 predecessor made in its first three. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. This is a bomb that may struggle to make $75 million domestically.

Creed III was third with $8.3 million, in line with $8.8 million take for $140 million after four weeks.

Scream VI was fourth and also did $8.3 million (I predicted a little more at $9.4 million). The horror sequel is at $89 million as it slashes to $100 million plus.

Finally, 65 rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3 million) for a weak $27 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

BUT in the meantime – check out my podcast on your favorite place to get podcasts. Simply search for Movies at the Speed of Speculation for your listening pleasure!

March 24-26 Box Office Predictions

John Wick: Chapter 4 is set to easily achieve a franchise best record this weekend. It’s the only new wide release burning up the screens and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Box Office Prediction

When I did my initial projection last week, I had Keanu and company hitting close to $70 million. Sizzling buzz now has me projecting in the mid 80s for a series that keeps growing financially with each entry.

The rest of the top 5 will be holdovers. Shazam! Fury of the Gods got off to a middling start (more on that below) and it should fall a bit further than the 54% decline of its predecessor in 2019.

It could be a close call for #3 between Scream VI (which I have dipping in the mid 40s) and Creed III (which could see a lower 40s fall). 65 looks to round out the high five.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $85.5 million

2. Shazam! Fury of the Gods

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

4. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

5. 65

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (March 17-19)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods could’ve used Irish luck or any other type as it came nowhere near the $53 million that its predecessor debuted at. The DCEU sequel made $30.1 million. While it managed to barely top my $27.9 million call, this is a subpar start to be kind. On the heels of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania not matching expectations, there seems to be some superhero fatigue. With a B+ Cinemascore (compared to part 1’s “A”), look for this to suffer substantial declines in the weeks ahead.

Scream VI was second after a franchise high opening with $17.3 million. That’s right on pace with my $17.6 million forecast for a ten-day haul of $75 million (just below the $81 million that #5 earned in total stateside).

Creed III was third with $15.3 million (I said $16.5 million) for a three-week tally of $127 million. That puts it beyond the $115 million that part II made overall.

65 was fourth with $5.8 million, a smidge ahead of my $4.8 million projection. Adam Driver’s dino adventure stands at a muted $22 million thus far.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania rounded out the top five with $4.2 million, in line with my $4.3 million prediction. Total is $205 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 17-19 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (03/16): My Shazam! estimate continues to fall as I’m taking it down from $32.9M to $27.9M. Also bumping Scream VI from $16.6 to $17.6M and Creed III from $15.4M to $16.5M

Shazam! Fury of the Gods will keep the run of sequels in first place going at the box office, but it could deliver a so-so start. The DCEU follow-up to 2019’s original is the only wide release of the weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Box Office Prediction

Zachary Levi’s superhero hopes to top the $53 million earned by its predecessor four years ago. I have it falling about $10 million shy of that mark in the low 40s which would be considered a letdown. This is especially true considering the recent franchise best starts for the Creed and Scream series. ***Blogger’s Update (03/15): Two days before its premiere, I have significantly lowered my estimate from $42.9M to $32.9M

Speaking of, it could be a close race for #2 between Scream VI and Creed III. The former slashed it way to a terrific debut (more on that below). Given its genre, a hefty sophomore decline is likely while Creed III may not suffer a steep drop.

A ginormous fall will probably greet 65 after the premiere. Adam Driver’s battle with dinosaurs managed only a C+ Cinemascore grade which means word-of-mouth may cause a second weekend percentage plummet close to its title number. It should be in a tight battle with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania for fourth position.

Here’s how I envision that top 5 looking:

1. Shazam! Fury of the Gods

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

2. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

4. 65

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (March 10-12)

Scream VI needed to pass the $34 million earned by Scream 3 in 2000 to achieve the franchise’s high mark. It did so easily with $44.4 million, just edging my $42.6 million call. With a B+ Cinemascore (same as last year’s Scream which was Scream 5 and just not called that), audiences are liking what they’re seeing. As mentioned, it should still see a dip in the high 50s to low 60s range.

Creed III fell a respectable 53% to second with $27.2 million, punching past my $25 million take. The threequel from director and star Michael B. Jordan has amassed $101 million in ten days on its way to becoming the largest earner of the trilogy.

65 was third with $12.3 million. While that beats my $10.7 million prediction, that’s a meager beginning considering its reported large budget. Per above, expect this to become extinct quickly.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania was fourth with $7.1 million compared to my $6.5 million estimate. The MCU adventure is approaching the double century club at $198 million. It might barely outpace its predecessor from 2018.

Cocaine Bear rounded out the top five with $6.2 million. My prediction? $6.2 million! The three-week total is $51 million.

Sports comedy Champions with Woody Harrelson kicked off in sixth with a blah $5.1 million. I said it would make… $5.1 million! The good news is its A Cinemascore and it will hope for small percentage losses in the frames ahead.

Finally, Jesus Revolution was seventh with $5.1 million and I said… (you guessed it!) $5.1 million. The three-week gross is $39 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Ghostface terrorizes NYC in Scream VI, Adam Driver fights dinosaurs in 65, and Woody Harrelson is ordered to coach a basketball team with intellectual disabilities in Champions. They are the newcomers hitting screens this Friday and my detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Scream VI Box Office Prediction
65 Box Office Prediction
Champions Box Office Prediction

Just as Creed III smashed its franchise best record this past weekend (more on that below), Scream VI could be poised for the same. To do so, it would need to slash past the $34 million achieved by Scream 3 in 2000. I’m projecting it will do so with room to spare.

Creed III should fall to second in round 2. A mid to high 50s decline could give it a clean $25 million after its fantastic start.

65 appears likely for a third place start. Yet I’ve got the dino action pic barely topping $10 million. Considering its reported $90 million price tag, that would be a troubling premiere for the Sony property.

I’m not anticipating much out of Champions and my estimate ties it with the third frame of Jesus Revolution. That would mean holdovers Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Cocaine Bear would be in a close contest for the four and five spots.

Here’s how I envision it looking:

1. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $25 million

3. 65

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

4. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

5. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

6. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

7. Champions

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (March 3-5)

The month of March began with a potent punch at multiplexes as Creed III amassed $58.3 million. I way lowballed it at $39.2 million. Marking the directorial debut of its star Michael B. Jordan, it easily outpaced its predecessors. For context – Creed II, over the five-day Thanksgiving frame in 2018, made $55 million. In a month filled with potential blockbusters, the return of Adonis a promising pace.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania fell to second after two weeks on top with $12.8 million. I was more generous at $14.6 million. The 60% drop was another troubling development for the threequel. Its total is $187 million.

Cocaine Bear was third with $11.1 million in its sophomore outing compared to my $13.2 million take. The 52% decline isn’t too shabby for its genre as the ten-day tally is $41 million.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village started in line with expectations in fourth with $10.1 million. I was close with $9.8 million. Expect a hefty dip in the range of 70% or more coming up.

Jesus Revolution rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $8.4 million. I had it raised higher at $11.3 million. The $30 million two-week gross remains rock solid.

Finally, Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre re-teaming Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham meekly rolled out in seventh with $3.1 million (I said $4 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 3-5 Box Office Predictions

Creed III looks to KO all competitors as the Japanese animated episodic effort Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village and Guy Ritchie’s action comedy Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Creed III Box Office Prediction
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village Box Office Prediction
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre Box Office Prediction

Michael B. Jordan makes his directorial debut in the third feature in the Creed franchise and ninth in the Rocky cinematic universe. It is the first not to feature Rocky himself Sylvester Stallone. However, reviews are strong and I see no reason why this wouldn’t continue the muscular grosses. The first two Creed flicks opened over long Thanksgiving frames. Part III could manage the highest three-day start at just under $40 million.

Swordsmith is a head scratcher. In 2021, Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba the Movie: Mugen Train astonished forecasters with $21 million in its first weekend. Swordsmith is not a sequel. Instead it combines episodes from a TV show related to the franchise. I’ve yet to see a theater count so that could alter my take. If it manages close to half of what Train accomplished, it would place in the top five.

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, the latest collaboration between Ritchie and Jason Statham, seems like it is being dumped into multiplexes and my meager $4 million projection leaves it in sixth.

As for holdovers, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania experienced a massive second weekend dip (more on that below). The third frame drop-off shouldn’t be as disastrous (perhaps a bit over 50%). Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution both over performed in their premieres. The Revolution sophomore decline may only be in the high 20s with Cocaine being cut in the low to mid 40s.

Here’s how I envision the top six looking:

1. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $39.2 million

2. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

3. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

6. Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (February 24-26)

The #1 spot came without bragging rights as Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania suffered the largest second frame fall of all the 31 MCU entries. At 70%, the Paul Rudd threequel made $31.9 million. I was slightly more generous at $34.2 million. The ten-day tally is $167 million and it will be the best earner of the Ant-Man trilogy. It still scored a record that Disney/MCU can’t be thrilled about.

Universal, on the other hand, can celebrate their marketing campaign for Cocaine Bear as it paid off with $23.2 million for second place. That’s well above the rosiest predictions and considerably beyond my call of $14.3 million.

Faith-based drama Jesus Revolution continued over performances for the genre at $15.8 million in third. I was more skeptical with only $8.7 million. With an A+ Cinemascore, this could be blessed with smallish declines in the coming weeks.

Avatar: The Way of Water was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) to bring the eleven week gross to $665 million.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rounded out the top five with $4.1 million. I went with $4.6 million and the animated sequel has amassed $173 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 24-26 Box Office Predictions

While Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania should easily stay in the number one spot, Cocaine Bear looks for a strong #2 showing and Jesus Revolution hopes to rise above expectations. They are the newcomers this weekend and my detailed prediction posts on them can be found here:

Cocaine Bear Box Office Prediction
Jesus Revolution Box Office Prediction

Cocaine Bear has generated buzz since its trailer (and honestly the title reveal). It could blow past my low teens estimate, but I do believe the appeal might be somewhat limited.

Jesus Revolution, as other faith-based dramas have, could exceed my sub double digits projection. A third place showing seems likely. If it does surpass my prognosis and Cocaine comes in under mine, a battle for the runner-up position is feasible.

Quantumania opened in its expected range and crawled ahead of my estimate (more on that below). It also received a troubling Cinemascore grade of B (tying the lowest for the MCU with Eternals). That should mean a sophomore drop in the mid to high 60s (similar to Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder from last year) is coming.

Holiday holdovers Avatar: The Way of Water and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should round out the top five. Here’s how I envision it:

1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

2. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (February 17-20)

As anticipated, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania commanded the long President’s Day frame with $120.3 million from Friday to Monday. That’s ahead of my $109.1 million estimate. That easily makes for the best start to the three Ant pics (as was expected). Per above, the second weekend dip should be substanial.

Avatar: The Way of Water held in second with $8 million compared to my $6.1 million prediction. The mega-sequel has amassed $659 million domestically.

The sequel love continued with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at $7 million in third, slashing past my $5.8 million take. Total is $167 million.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance dropped from 1st to 4th though it doubled its theater count from approximately 1500 to over 3000. It made $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) for overall earnings of $18 million.

Knock at the Cabin was fifth and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. With $4.6 million, the three-week gross is $31 million.

Finally, 80 for Brady was sixth with $4.5 million compared to my $4.2 million guesstimate. The octogenarian comedy is up to $33 million.

And that does it for now, folks! In case you didn’t know, I’ve started a podcast where you can hear my box office and Oscar predictions and the link for it is below. Until next time…

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/movies-at-the-speed-of-speculation/id1668006585?i=1000601007142

February 17-20 Box Office Predictions

Blogge’s Update (02/16): It has been announced that Magic Mike’s Last Dance is significantly increasing its screen count from 1500 venues to over 3000 in weekend #2. Therefore I’m upping my estimate from $4 million to $5.5 million along with giving slight bumps to Avatar and Puss in Boots. Ant-Man remains unchanged.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe begins Phase Five as their 31st picture Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania looks to easily have the biggest debut since Avatar: The Way of Water. We also have low-budget British slasher Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey straying far from its Disney version out on Wednesday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the duo here:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction
Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey Box Office Prediction

Keep in mind that this is a holiday weekend so my projections are for Friday to Monday. Ant-Man and the Wasp from 2018 built upon the premiere of the 2015 original – $75 million vs. $57 million. Quantumania should continue that trend with a four-day haul of over $100 million.

The rest of the top five should be holdovers and I have Magic Mike’s Last Dance sliding the furthest from 1st to 5th after a shaky start (more on that below). That said, Winnie is a potential spoiler. Reportedly shot for under $100k, it could capture the attention of horror fans and exceed my estimate of $3.5 million from Friday to Monday and $4.7 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday. I currently have it just outside the high five. Keep an eye on this post. That could change by lock time on Thursday.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $109.1 million

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. Magic Mike’s Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. 80 for Brady

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (February 10-12)

Moviegoers mostly stayed home this weekend and not just on Sunday for the Super Bowl and/or Rihanna concert. Everything came in a tad shy (or more than a tad in a couple of cases) of my predictions.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance was a muted #1 with $8.3 million. Warner Bros didn’t seem to have much faith in it as its release was on a scant 1500 screens. So while the per theater average surpassed predecessor Magic Mike XXL (2015), it fell far short in terms of actual gross. I said it would $10.7 million.

Avatar: The Way of Water rose a spot to second with $7.2 million, in line with my $7.5 million take as it hit $647 million. Per above, it should stay put in second this weekend.

The 25th anniversary re-release of Titanic couldn’t match my expectations. James Cameron’s first picture to become the highest grosser of all time added $6.7 million to its coffers. I thought it would be #1 and guesstimated $11.6 million. Don’t feel sorry for Leo and Kate. After a quarter century, it is now at a devilish $666 million stateside.

80 for Brady, with sturdy competition for the female demo with Magic Mike and Titanic, suffered in its sophomore outing with $5.8 million. I projected $8.1 million. The 54% plummet is a little troubling and it is now at $24 million after ten days.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rounded out the top five with $5.5 million (I said $5.6 million) for $158 million overall.

Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock at the Cabin was burned in weekend #2, falling from 1st to 6th. It plummeted 62% with $5.4 million (under my $5.9 million forecast) for a mere $23 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania hopes to score commanding grosses over the long President’s Day weekend starting February 17th. The 31st entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and third in this particular franchise features Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly reprising their roles as the title heroes. Michelle Pfeiffer and Michael Douglas are back with Jonathan Majors being introduced as villain Kang the Conqueror. Peyton Reed (who helmed the first two) is back directing. Other cast members include Kathryn Newton, David Dastmalchian, William Jackson Harper, Katy O’Brian, and Bill Murray.

The initial movie in the MCU’s Phase Five (with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels up next), Ant-Man looks to expand on the opening earnings of its predecessors. In the summer of 2015, Ant-Man made $57 million for its start (the second smallest MCU debut with The Incredible Hulk being lowest at $55 million). It ended up with $180 million domestically. Three years later, Ant-Man and the Wasp reached higher with $75 million and an eventual stateside tally of $216 million.

When it comes to the MCU, sequels typically outperform their originals (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was a recent exception to the rule). Thor: Love and Thunder, on the other hand, built upon its three predecessors. Quantumania should follow that trend.

As far as President’s Day weekend, it shouldn’t come close to approaching the record. That was five years ago with Black Panther when it scored $202 million from Friday to Sunday and $242 million when factoring Monday. The runner-up is 2016’s Deadpool with respective three and four-day takes of $132 million and $152 million. Third place belongs to 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey ($85 million Friday to Sunday, $93 million four-day).

This should manage a third place all-time haul. I’ll say the three-day falls a tad short of $100 million and just shy of $110 million with Monday’s inclusion.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opening weekend prediction: $96.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $109.1 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey prediction, click here:

Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey Box Office Prediction