Tag: box office predictions

May 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (05/15): My Parabellum prediction has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million

The three-week reign of Avengers: Endgame atop the charts should end this weekend at the hands of Keanu Reeves as his action threequel John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum is unveiled. We also have canine sequel A Dog’s Journey and YA romance The Sun Is Also a Star out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/07/john-wick-chapter-3-parabellum-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/a-dogs-journey-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/the-sun-is-also-a-star-box-office-prediction/

Mr. Wick appears poised for a healthy start in first. The 2014 original made $14 million out of the gate but became a cult favorite shortly thereafter. Its 2017 follow-up brought in $30 million. Some have Parabellum in the mid 40s range, but I’m thinking high 30s is more probable. That should still be more than enough to ensure it the #1 slot.

A mid 50s dip should drop Endgame to second with Pokemon Detective Pikachu in third. I have A Dog’s Journey tapped for just under teens (not matching the $18 million earned by predecessor A Dog’s Purpose).

My $5.5 million forecast for The Sun Is Also a Star likely leaves it in sixth with The Hustle rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:

1. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum

Predicted Gross: $45.8 million

2. Avengers: Endgame

Predicted Gross: $28.5 million

3. Pokemon Detective Pikachu

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million

4. A Dog’s Journey

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

5. The Hustle

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (May 10–12)

It was a three-peat for the gargantuan superhero squad as Avengers: Endgame took in $63.2 million (below my $71.2 million take). The film has amassed a jaw-dropping $723 million total. That’s the fourth heftiest third weekend in box office history and it’s climbed to third all-time domestically in overall gross, with Avatar well in its sights.

Pokemon Detective Pikachu got a silver medal with a decent $54.3 million, under my $64.8 million projection. The Ryan Reynolds voiced pic fell within the range of expectations, albeit on the lower end.

The Hustle with Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson was third and opened right in line with estimates at $13 million (I said $13.4 million). A weak B- CinemaScore grade indicates audiences weren’t impressed.

Fourth place belonged to The Intruder as it had a nice hold in weekend #2. I incorrectly had it outside the top five, but it made $7.1 million for a two-week haul of $21 million.

Long Shot was in the five spot with $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) and $19 million total.

The Diane Keaton cheerleading comedy Poms was a dud in sixth with just $5.3 million. I reached higher at $8.7 million.

Tolkien was another disappointment in ninth with a measly $2.2 million. I went with $3.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Sun Is Also a Star Box Office Prediction

The genre of young adult romances has its share of misses at the box office recently. The Sun Is Also a Star will try to reverse that next weekend and that could be tough. Yara Shahidi (best known for TV’s “Black-ish”) is a bright college student who connects with exchange student Charles Melton (of Netflix’s “Riverdale”). Complications arise when her family faces deportation. Costars include Jake Choi, John Leguizamo, and Hill Harper.

Sun is directed by Ry Russo-Young. She’s already had one YA genre flop in the form of Before I Fall, which opened in 2017 to just $4.6 million. The pic is based on a novel by Nicola Yoon, who also wrote Everything, Everything. Its film adaptation two years ago performed better and debuted to just over $11 million.

I don’t see this reaching the heights of the latter or going quite as low as the former. Mid to possibly upper single digits appears likely.

The Sun Is Also a Star opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million

For my John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/07/john-wick-chapter-3-parabellum-box-office-prediction/

For my A Dog’s Journey prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/a-dogs-journey-box-office-prediction/

A Dog’s Journey Box Office Prediction

A Dog’s Journey finds its way to theaters next weekend and it comes without the controversy that greeted its predecessor. In 2017, A Dog’s Purpose got in some water when video surfaced of an animal being mistreated on set. The film managed to turn into a decent sized hit with an opening just north of $18 million and $64 eventual domestic gross. That’s enough to warrant a sequel and Journey is also based on a book by W. Bruce Cameron. Gail Mancuso takes over directorial duties from Lasse Hallstrom. Josh Gad is back voicing the lead canine and costars include Dennis Quaid, Marg Helgenberger, and Betty Gilpin.

I’m not confident that Journey will follow the same box office path as Purpose did with its high teens range. I do think it’ll manage to top 2019’s A Dog’s Way Home, which premiered to $11.2 million. A gross just under the teens seems like the right call.

A Dog’s Journey opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million

For my John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/07/john-wick-chapter-3-parabellum-box-office-prediction/

For my The Sun Is Also a Star prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/the-sun-is-also-a-star-box-office-prediction/

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (05/15): My estimate has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million

Keanu Reeves is back in theaters next weekend as America’s favorite dog loving hitman when John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum debuts. The action thriller hopes to build upon the momentum of 2017’s highly successful sequel. Chad Stahelski returns as director with familiar series faces including Laurence Fishburne, Lance Reddick, Ian McShane, and John Leguizamo. New stars in our third edition include Halle Berry, Mark Dacascos, Asia Kate Dillon, and Anjelica Huston.

Mr. Reeves found himself in an unexpected new franchise five years ago when John Wick opened to $14 million with a $43 million overall domestic gross. While that might not seem like enough to automatically warrant a follow-up, the pic achieved critical kudos and cult status when it arrived on demand. Three years later, Chapter 2 made $30 million for its start and $92 million total.

Parabellum has a solid shot at topping the opening weekend of its predecessor, which also garnered glowing reviews. I’ll say mid to high 30s is where this ends up.

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum opening weekend prediction: $45.8 million

For my A Dog’s Journey prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/a-dogs-journey-box-office-prediction/

For my The Sun Is Also a Star prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/the-sun-is-also-a-star-box-office-prediction/

May 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/08): I am downgrading my Pikachu estimate from $74.8 million to $64.8 million and now giving Endgame a third weekend atop the charts

I’m predicting a photo finish as Avengers: Endgame gets legitimate competition in the form of Pokemon Detective Pikachu featuring the vocal stylings of Ryan Reynolds this weekend. We also have a pair of comedies marketed to the female crowd: Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson in the Dirty Rotten Scoundrels remake The Hustle and Diane Keaton cheerleading flick Poms. In more limited release, there’s the biopic Tolkien with Nicholas Hoult. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/pokemon-detective-pikachu-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/the-hustle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/02/poms-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/04/tolkien-box-office-prediction/

About that photo finish… estimates for Pokemon are all over the map and they have been dropping a bit in recent days. I’ve landed with it having a debut in the mid 70s range. That puts it where I expect Endgame to be. If the record breaking superhero epic manages to top $68 million this weekend, it will achieve the second best third weekend of all time behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That would match what it did this past weekend (more on that below).

I’m giving Pikachu an ever so slight edge to nab the #1 spot. We shall see if that changes as the week goes on.

As for the fresh comedies, The Hustle and Poms should get the three and four spots, respectively. I’ve downgraded both of my forecasts today, especially after seeing the disappointing gross of Long Shot.

Tolkien is only hitting a smallish 1300 screens and my $3.1 million projection leaves it outside the top five. Speaking of the five position, that could be interesting as The Intruder, Long Shot, and UglyDolls could all get it depending on their sophomore dips. I’ll give Long Shot a minor edge.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Avengers: Endgame

Predicted Gross: $71.2 million

2. Pokemon Detective Pikachu

Predicted Gross: $64.8 million

3. The Hustle

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. Poms

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Long Shot

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (May 3–5)

Avengers: Endgame finally found a record it couldn’t smash this weekend, though I’m sure Disney isn’t too upset about that. In its second weekend, it grossed $147.3 million and that fell under my $153.6 million estimate. That’s also just under the $149 million earned by The Force Awakens in its second weekend, so it had to settle for runner-up record status. With $621 million in the bank, Endgame is already the #9 domestic earner in history. Even more impressively, the film is already #2 worldwide as it surpassed Titanic and is behind only Avatar.

All new titles came in under expectations. As predicted, thriller The Intruder performed the best in second with $10.8 million. While quite a bit under my $15.2 million estimate, it’s a solid performance considering it cost a scant $8 million to produce.

Long Shot with Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron couldn’t connect with audiences despite solid reviews. Its third place showing was only $9.7 million compared to my $13.1 million projection.

The news was even worse for the animated UglyDolls. It bombed in fourth with $8.6 million. I went higher at $13.8 million.

Captain Marvel rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $5.9 million). Total stands at $420 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Tolkien Box Office Prediction

His fantastical literary works have made billions at the box office and now J.R.R. Tolkien gets the biopic treatment next weekend. Set during World War I, Tolkien casts Nicholas Hoult in the title role of the famed author behind Lord of the Rings and The Hobbit. Finnish director Dome Karukoski is behind the camera and costars include Lily Collins, Colm Meaney, and Derek Jacobi.

This is a rare headlining role for Hoult, sandwiched between supporting parts in The Favourite and X–Men: Dark Phoenix. Critics have been decidedly mixed and its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 54%.

The film has the distinction of being the first Fox Searchlight project distributed by new owner Disney. With zero awards buzz and a smallish theater count of approximately 1300, Tolkien will likely struggle to even see $5 million. Just because its subject matter’s novels are box office gold doesn’t mean this will be.

Tolkien opening weekend prediction: $3.1 million

For my Pokemon Detective Pikachu prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/pokemon-detective-pikachu-box-office-prediction/

For my The Hustle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/the-hustle-box-office-prediction/

For my Poms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/02/poms-box-office-prediction/

Poms Box Office Prediction

STX Entertainment is hoping an older female audience will turn out next weekend to cheer on Poms. The comedy is headlined by Diane Keaton as a recent retirement community resident who starts a cheerleading squad. Costars include Jacki Weaver, Pam Grier, Rhea Perlman, Celia Watson, Alisha Boe, and Bruce McGill. Zara Hayes directs.

The film is hopeful to become a counter programming option amidst lots of expensive summer blockbusters. However, competition for a female audience is there as The Hustle opens against it and Long Shot will be in its second weekend. By skewing a bit older with its target audience, Poms is looking to tap into Book Club money.

That movie opened last May to $13.5 million on roughly the same number of screens that this is. It legged out nicely to $68 million. I don’t have Poms jumping that high and I’m forecasting high single digits to low double digits as it hopes for small drops in the weekends ahead.

Poms opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million

For my Pokemon Detective Pikachu prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/pokemon-detective-pikachu-box-office-prediction/

For my The Hustle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/the-hustle-box-office-prediction/

For my Tolkien prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/04/tolkien-box-office-prediction/

The Hustle Box Office Prediction

A remake of a remake, MGM is hoping moviegoers want to do The Hustle next weekend. The pic updates the Steve Martin/Michael Caine comedy Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, which itself was a reworking of the 1964 Marlon Brando/David Niven effort Bedtime Story. Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson are the newest pair of con artists. The supporting cast includes Alex Sharp, Tim Blake Nelson, and Dean Norris. Chris Addison directs.

Hathaway hasn’t headlined a high-profile laugher since 2015’s The Intern, which made $17 million for its start. Wilson, on the other hand, starred in Isn’t It Romantic earlier this year and that debuted at $14.2 million. I like that comp better and I’ll throw in another: 2015’s Hot Pursuit with Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. It opened in mid May as well with $13.9 million.

That sounds about right here with a so-so low teens take.

The Hustle opening weekend prediction: $13.4 million

For my Pokemon Detective Pikachu prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/pokemon-detective-pikachu-box-office-prediction/

For my Poms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/02/poms-box-office-prediction/

For my Tolkien prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/04/tolkien-box-office-prediction/

Pokemon Detective Pikachu Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (05/08): I am downgrading my estimate from $74.8 million to $64.8 million

Ryan Reynolds hangs up the Deadpool costume for a bit in order to lend his voice to another hoped for franchise when Pokemon Detective Pikachu debuts next weekend. Based on a 2016 video game, the Pokémon series has been thriving for nearly a quarter century in various iterations on Nintendo and on the big screen. Rob Letterman, who was behind the camera on Gulliver’s Travels and Goosebumps, directs. A mix of live-action and animation, the supporting cast includes Justice Smith, Kathryn Newton, Suki Waterhouse, Ken Watanabe, and Bill Nighy.

Warner Bros is certainly hoping a slew of follow-up features are in the cards. A sequel has already been commissioned. With Reynolds in the lead and the popularity of the source material, the studio might find itself in luck. Estimates for the opening weekend gross are wide-ranging – everywhere from $50 million to over $100 million. If it falls on the lower end of that spectrum, it may not top the box office due to the third weekend of the record-breaking Avengers: Endgame.

In 1999, Pokemon: The First Movie opened to $31 million and ended up with $85 million. Sequel Pokemon: The Movie 2000 couldn’t replicate that success with a $19 million start and $43 overall gross. By 2001, the series had run out of gas when Pokemon 3: The Movie opened to $8 million and petered out at $17 million.

Expectations are different this time around. I’ll say Pikachu (The Movie) has an opening in the middle of its huge range and that’s about $10-15 million under what the first movie accomplished overall 20 years ago.

Pokemon Detective Pikachu opening weekend prediction: $64.8 million

For my The Hustle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/30/the-hustle-box-office-prediction/

For my Poms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/02/poms-box-office-prediction/

For my Tolkien prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/04/tolkien-box-office-prediction/

May 3-5 Box Office Predictions

As we all catch our breath from the astounding debut of Avengers: Endgame, the first weekend of May brings three new titles all vying for second place behind Tony Stark and company. They are the animated UglyDolls, Seth Rogen/Charlize Theron comedy Long Shot, and homeownership thriller The Intruder with a demented Dennis Quaid. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/23/uglydolls-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/24/long-shot-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/23/the-intruder-box-office-prediction/

All three films have legit chances at premiering in second. I’m skeptical about UglyDolls, even though the plush toys it’s based on are well-known. Long Shot has reviews on its side, but could be more of a slow builder. That leaves The Intruder and I do believe it could appeal to an older and African-American audience. Therefore I’ll say it becomes the silver medalist.

This brings us to the sophomore frame of Endgame. It broke basically every record there is over the weekend (more on that below). Predecessor Infinity War dipped 55% last year. This might be a tad more front loaded, but probably not by much. I’ll give it a 57% slide. That means another record should be in store as my estimate puts it over the best all-time second weekend, which is Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $149 million.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Avengers: Endgame

Predicted Gross: $153.6 million

2. The Intruder

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

3. UglyDolls

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Long Shot

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

5. Captain Marvel

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (April 26–28)

History was made this weekend as Avengers: Endgame rocketed past even the most lofty expectations and left record after record in its wake. The MCU epic took in an otherworldly $357.1 million, scorching my $289.6 million projection. That’s not only the biggest opening of all time… it’s $100 million more than previous holder Avengers: Infinity War from last summer. The question as to whether it eventually surpasses the $936 million achieved by all-time domestic earner The Force Awakens is real.

As if Endgame didn’t provide enough embarrassment of riches, Captain Marvel climbed to second (thanks drive-ins) with $8.3 million (I said $8.7 million) for $413 million overall.

The Curse of La Llorona was third with $8 million compared to my higher $10 million forecast. The two-week tally is $41 million.

Breakthrough was fourth with $6.8 million (I said $6.3 million). Total is $26 million.

Shazam! rounded out the top five with $5.5 million. I was generous at $7.4 million. It’s at $131 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…