A group of actresses, many also known for their musical talents, play exotic dancers who take on wealthy Wall Street men in the dramedy Hustlers next weekend. Lorene Scafaria directs a cast led by Constance Wu (in his first big film role since breakout CrazyRichAsians), Jennifer Lopez, Keke Palmer, Julia Stiles, Cardi B, Lili Reinhart, and Lizzo.
Based on a 2015 NewYork magazine article, Hustlers looks to tap into an often undeserved audience of minorities and women. It could be well positioned to do so. Wu and Lopez have their followers and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate the participation of Cardi B and Lizzo, who have consistently been producing Top 40 hits over the past few months.
The budget for the pic is reported to be between $20-$30 million and I believe that’s where the opening weekend should fall. If Hustlers tops $23 million, it would give Lopez her largest life action start ever (ahead of 2005’s Monster–in–Law). I’ll say it does and that would give it an impressive #2 debut behind the second frame of ItChapterTwo.
Hustlers opening weekend prediction: $31.5 million
It’s all about It this weekend as the fall box office kicks off and Pennywise returns to terrorize The Losers Club in ItChapterTwo. The Stephen King adapted sequel looks to dominate the marketplace with a potential nine figure debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:
Two years ago on the same post Labor Day frame, It blew away expectations with a massive $123.4 million premiere. Breaking the opening records for September and the horror genre, anticipation is certainly present for the follow up. Reviews aren’t quite as strong this time around and that could mean a slight dip. Yet I’m still going with a starting gross of over $100 million.
No studio bothered to provide direct competition, so the rest of the top 5 will be made up of summer holdovers. None of them should register in the double digits as the demonic clown will be the main attraction.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. ItChapterTwo
Predicted Gross: $109.7 million
2. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
3. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $3 million
BoxOfficeResults (August30–September2)
Before the It arrival, it was a typically quiet Labor Day weekend as AngelHasFallen kept its place atop the charts with a four day gross of $15.3 million, a tad under my $16.1 million estimate. The two week total is $44 million.
GoodBoys remained in second with $12.1 million (I said $13.1 million) for $59 million overall.
The summer season ruler Disney had TheLionKing in third with $9.3 million, on par with my $9.8 million projection for $523 million in the coffers.
Hobbs & Shaw was fourth with $8.4 million compared to my $9.2 million prediction. Tally is $159 million.
Overcomer rounded out the top five at $7.7 million. I went higher with $9 million. The faith based sports drama has earned $19 million.
Finally, the David Oyelowo Blumhouse thriller Don’tLetGo tanked in 15th place with a meager $2.9 million. I was more generous at $4.5 million.
ItChapterTwo will no doubt float to the top of the charts next weekend when it’s unleashed in cinemas. The Stephen King adapted horror epic continues the story of the Losers Club battling demonic clown Pennywise and hopes to rake in similar earnings to its 2017 predecessor. Andy Muschietti returns in the director’s seat with Bill Skarsgard back as Pennywise. Jaeden Martell, Sophia Lillis, Finn Wolfhard, Chosen Jacobs, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Jack Dylan Grazer, and Wyatt Oleff reprise their roles as the youthful Losers Club. Part 2 also flashes forward in time and finds James McAvoy, Jessica Chastain, Bill Hader (said to be a scene stealer), Isaiah Mustafa, Jay Ryan, James Ransone, and Andy Bean portraying their adult versions. This is the only wide release of the weekend as other studios steered clear.
It was a genuine box office phenomenon when it came out during the same post Labor Day frame two years ago. Bursting out of the gate with $123.4 million, it ended its domestic gross at just over $327 million. That made It the largest September opening of all time and highest debuting and overall earning horror feature ever.
ChapterTwo stands a real chance at breaking those records. Unlike some sequels in 2019 that followed long after previous entries, chapter one is still fresh in the minds of audiences. There’s a desire to see how it wraps up. That said, I’ll say this falls under what that creepy clown and company accomplished in 2017.
ItChapterTwo opening weekend prediction: $109.7 million
It’s Labor Day weekend as the summer movie season draws to a close. This is typically one of the more unexceptional holiday frames at the box office and 2019 should be no different. Blumhouse is putting out the supernatural thriller Don’tLetGo with David Oyelowo and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My four-day forecast for $4.5 million for Go takes it well out of top 5 contention. Instead we should see AngelHas Fallen managing a second weekend atop the charts after it rose above expectations, including my own.
GoodBoys should stay put in second. The rest of the top five could get interesting. This past weekend, we saw numbers 3-6 separated by a mere $100k. I expect that to continue here. Worthy of note is that these holdover summer offerings often see an increase in their grosses due to the extra day.
And with that, my take on the top 5 and take note that these are Friday to Monday numbers:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $9 million
BoxOfficeResults (August23–25)
As mentioned, action threequel AngelHasFallen exceeded projections with a solid $21.3 million, easily ahead of my $15.2 million forecast. That’s only $300k under predecessor LondonHasFallen, reversing this season’s trend of follow-ups falling short of what came before.
GoodBoys was second with $11.6 million (I said $12.5 million) for a pleasing two week tally of $41 million.
Faith based sports drama Overcomer topped its entire budget in third with $8.1 million, slightly overcoming my $7.4 million prediction.
Hobbs& Shaw was fourth with $8 million, on pace with my guesstimate of $7.9 million. Total is $147 million.
TheLionKing rounded out the high five and also made $8 million (I said $7.5 million) for a massive haul of $510 million.
ReadyorNot debuted in sixth with… $8 million. The acclaimed horror comedy slashed past my $5.8 million estimate. Since its Wednesday rollout, earnings are $11 million and that’s above my $7.7 million projection.
Blumhouse Productions hopes to have a sleeper hit on their hands over Labor Day weekend with Don’tLetGo. The supernatural thriller finds David Oyelowo attempting to retroactively prevent the death of loved ones. Jacob Aaron Estes directs with a supporting cast including Storm Reid, Bryon Mann, Mykelti Williamson, Alfred Molina, and Brian Tyree Henry.
The pic premiered eight months ago at the Sundance Film Festival to mixed reaction. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is at 47%. That’s not a great number to generate buzz and Go appears to be lacking it. While it’s a little risky to underestimate Blumhouse, the Labor Day release date isn’t exactly a vote of confidence.
I’ll say this doesn’t manage to achieve double digits over the four day holiday weekend. Mid single digits is possibly where this goes.
Don’tLetGo opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Expect a rather sleepy weekend at the box office as the dog days of August roll along. We have three releases ahead of us as action threequel AngelHasFallen, sports themed Christian drama Overcomer, and critically hailed black comedy ReadyorNot debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
While I do have Angel flying to the top spot, I have performing under the premieres of predecessors Olympus and LondonHasFallen. I think there’s a chance it goes even lower and finds itself in a race for #1 with the second weekend of GoodBoys (which surpassed all prognoses this weekend).
Overcomer is an interesting one. It’s from the director of WarRoom, which performed spectacularly four summers ago. These faith based pics have a history to over perform, though that’s not always guaranteed. I’m giving it the five spot behind the fourth weekend of Hobbs&Shaw and sixth weekend of TheLionKing.
I am not seeking an impressive gross for ReadyorNot despite its solid reviews. It’s out on Wednesday. My $5.8 million traditional Friday to Sunday estimate and $7.7 million five-day projection leaves it outside my top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
3. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (August16–18)
It was a frame that saw five new releases and if it wasn’t named GoodBoys, it didn’t do well. The aforementioned preteen comedy took in $21.4 million, way beyond my $14.3 million prediction. Boys is the first R rated comedy to hit #1 in over three years and it should manage to leg out decently.
Hobbs&Shaw was second with $14.1 million, a touch more than my $12.8 million estimate. It’s at $133 million.
TheLionKing took third at $12.3 million (I said $11.1 million) for a whopping $496 million overall.
TheAngryBirdsMovie2, which I said would be #1, struggled in fourth with just $10.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million since its Tuesday opening. That’s well below my expectations of $17.2 million and $25.4 million, respectively.
ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $10 million. My prediction? $10 million! Tally is $40 million.
DoraandtheLostCityofGold mined $8.5 million in its sophomore outing for sixth (I said $9.3 million). The unimpressive total is $33 million.
47MetersDown: Uncaged was lost at sea in seventh place with $8.4 million. I was higher at $10.2 million. The shark sequel couldn’t match the $11 million plus earned by its predecessor two summers ago.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood was eighth with $7.6 million, in line with my $7.1 million estimate. The Quentin Tarantino flick stands at $114 million.
I incorrectly had TheArtofRacingintheRain outside the top ten, but it was ninth with $4.5 million. Two-week gross is $17 million.
The Bruce Springsteen inspired dramedy BlindedbytheLight failed to find an audience in tenth with $4.3 million (I gave it more at $5.8 million).
Finally, Richard Linklater’s Where’dYouGo, Bernadette performed even weaker in 11th with a measly $3.4 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast.
A darkly comedic game of hide and seek is unveiled Wednesday in theaters next week in ReadyorNot. The pic stars Margot Robbie… actually it’s Samara Weaving (niece of Hugo). She’s a doppelgänger for Robbie and she plays a bride to be in a filthy rich family who subject her to the aforementioned game where they hunt her down. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett direct. Costars include Mark O’Brien, Adam Brody, Henry Czerny, and Andie MacDowell.
Not was readied for a premiere in July at the Fantasia International Film Festival and critical reaction was strong. It currently holds a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, I’m not at all confident this will manage to break out with a wide audience. A late August release date doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. This could struggle to reach double digits over its five-day rollout and that means mid single digits for the traditional Friday to Sunday frame is what I’m thinking.
ReadyorNot opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $7.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The brothers Alex and Stephen Kendrick’s brand of faith based features have had an impressive road to box office success. They hope to continue that trend next weekend with Overcomer. The sports themed drama is Alex’s directorial follow-up to 2015’s WarRoom, which shocked prognosticators with its eventual earnings. Stephen serves as co-writer for the screenplay with Alex in the starring role and costars including Priscilla Shirer and Shari Rigby.
Prior to WarRoom, the Kendricks Fireproof and Courageous both topped $30 million domestically. Room took them to a new level with an $11 million start as it legged out impressively to $67 million.
If Overcomer were to hit double digits, it won’t be as surprising as their previous hit. I’ll say it misses that mark, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility.
Overcomer opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million
In 2913, OlympusHasFallen surprised box office prognosticators with a gross of $98 million stateside, eclipsing the earnings of the similarly themed and higher profile WhiteHouseDown from that same year. The Gerard Butler action thriller has now spawned two sequels with AngelHasFallen rising in cinemas next weekend.
Butler’s Secret Service agent now finds himself framed for the attempted assassination of Morgan Freeman’s character. Ric Roman Waugh, best known for directing Dwayne Johnson in Snitch, is behind the camera. Costars include Jada Pinkett Smith, Lance Reddick, Tim Blake Nelson, Piper Perabo, Danny Huston, and Nick Nolte.
As mentioned, Olympus was a sleeper hit that soared out of the gate with $30 million. 2016 follow-up LondonHasFallen couldn’t match those numbers with a $21 million start and $62 million eventual tally.
My expectation is that the third edition will continue the downward trend. Mid to possibly high teens is likely. In the dog days of August, that might be enough for an unremarkable #1 debut.
AngelHasFallen opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million
For the second weekend in a row, we have a quintet of new titles populating the marketplace. And like those previous five pictures, all could struggle to break the $20 million mark with some failing to reach double digits. We have the animated sequel TheAngryBirdsMovie2, raunchy preteen comedy GoodBoys, shark sequel 47MetersDown: Uncaged, British musical dramedy BlindedbytheLight, and Richard Linklater directed mystery comedy Where’dYouGo, Bernadette with Cate Blanchett all out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
The Birds follow-up debuts tomorrow in theaters. Even with that early start, I believe the Friday to Sunday traditional gross should be enough for it to fly into the top spot. That said, I have it well under the $33 million debut of its 2016 predecessor.
The earnings of Boys and Meters might be similar, but my projection puts the former ahead. There could be a legit battle between these two newcomers with the third frame of Hobbs & Shaw, the sophomore frame of ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark, and the fifth weekend of TheLionKing. In other words, the placing of the top five could be extremely fluid.
I’m anticipating mid single digits for both Blinded and Bernadette, leaving them well outside the top five and behind DoraandtheLostCityofGold and OnceUponaTimeinHollywood.
So while this column is normally estimating the top half of the top 10, I’m doubling it given all the new product:
1. TheAngryBirdsMovie2
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $25.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Hobbs & Shaw
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million
5. 47MetersDown: Uncaged
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
6. ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark
Predicted Gross: $10 million
7. DoraandtheLostCityofGold
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
8. OnceUponaTimeinHollywood
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
9. BlindedbytheLight
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
10. Where’dYouGo, Bernadette
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (August9–11)
Hobbs&Shaw parked in first for the second weekend with $25.2 million, a smidge below my $27.5 million forecast. The two week tally stands at $108 million.
In a weekend where I assumed DoraandtheLostCityofGold would fare best among the five newcomers, it was ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark achieving that status. It exceeded most expectations at $20.9 million, well beyond my $14.3 million take.
TheLionKing was third with $20.2 million. My prediction? $20.2 million! It now is Disney’s largest earning live action title at $473 million.
Aforementioned Dora was fourth with a middling $17.4 million, falling below my projection of $19.7 million.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood hit the century mark and rounded out the top five. Earning $11.6 million (I said $11.3 million), the total is a cool $100 million.
TheArtofRacingintheRain premiered in sixth with a meh $8.1 million. Good news for me for the second time as I said $8.1 million.
Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish learned audiences wouldn’t turn out for them in a crime thriller. The poorly reviewed TheKitchen was seventh with just $5.5 million compared to my more generous $8.3 million prediction.
Finally, BrianBanks opened in 11th with $2.1 million. I was close at $2.3 million.
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