Tag: box office predictions

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

Tom Shadyac is best known as a maker of high profile and high grossing 90s comedies like Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Nutty Professor, and Liar Liar. This weekend’s Brian Banks sees him working on a smaller scale in a different genre. Banks is the true life tale of a football player (Aldis Hodge) falsely accused of rape and the efforts of the Innocence Project to clear him. Costars include Greg Kinnear, Sherri Shepherd, and Morgan Freeman.

Reviews so far have been scarce, but those posted are pretty decent. The film is slated to open on a smallish 1500 screens and its biggest hurdle is likely plain awareness of its existence. A gross above $2 million could even be a challenge, but I’ll say it manages to clear that low bar.

Brian Banks opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/dora-and-the-lost-city-of-gold-box-office-prediction/

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/the-kitchen-box-office-prediction/

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/scary-stories-to-tell-in-the-dark-box-office-prediction/

For my The Art of Racing in the Rain prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/31/the-art-of-racing-in-the-rain-box-office-prediction/

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

Another canine dramedy hits screens next weekend with The Art of Racing in the Rain. Based on a 2008 book by Garth Stein, the human stars are Milo Ventimiglia and Amanda Seyfried with supporting work from Kathy Baker and Gary Cole. Kevin Costner provides the voice of lead dog Enzo. Simon Curtis directs. This is the first feature made by Fox where new owner Disney has handled the marketing.

Even the Mouse Factory’s expertise at selling product may not enough for Rain to break out of the pack of recent genre fare. In January, A Dog’s Way Home debuted to just over $11 million. In May, A Dog’s Journey did $8 million for its start. I believe the latter scenario is where this lands.

The Art of Racing in the Rain opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/07): My prediction has increased from $10.7 million to $14.3 million

Based on a series of Alvin Schwartz horror novels geared towards children, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark opens in theaters next weekend. Co-produced by Guillermo del Toro, the film comes from director André Øvredal who mostly recently made the critically appreciated The Autopsy of Jane Doe. Cast members include Zoe Colletti, Michael Garza, Gabriel Rush, Austin Abrams, Dean Norris, Gil Bellows, and Lorraine Toussaint.

The concoction of the horror genre marketing to a young audience is a risky one. I’m not confident this mix will result in pleasing box office earnings and I wouldn’t expect the “Stranger Things” crowd to turn out. Even though we’re talking PG-13 here vs. an R rating, I’ll project this performs similarly to what Overlord (which boasted its own known producer J.J. Abrams) did last year.

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

For my The Art of Racing in the Rain prediction, click here:

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

Melissa McCarthy and Tiffany Haddish go out of their comedic comfort zones next weekend with the release of The Kitchen. The crime thriller casts the two performers alongside Elisabeth Moss as the wives of incarcerated gangsters who take over Mob operations in New York. The late 70s set pic marks the directorial debut of Andrea Berloff and is based on a comic book miniseries. Costars include Domhnall Gleeson, James Badge Dale, Brian d’Arcy James, Margo Martindale, Common, and Bill Camp.

If McCarthy and Haddish were headlining a high profile slapstick comedy, my estimate for The Kitchen would likely be considerably more (easily double). However, I’m skeptical that a wide audience is eager to see them in this. If solid reviews pop up in the coming days, that could potentially change the dynamic a bit. I think it’s going to have difficulty reaching double digits.

The Kitchen opening weekend prediction: $8.3 million

For my Dora and the Lost City of Gold prediction, click here:

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

For my The Art of Racing in the Rain prediction, click here:

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

Dora and the Lost City of Gold Box Office Prediction

Making the leap from the Nickelodeon small screen for a live action rendering, Dora and the Lost City of Gold looks to cash in at theaters next weekend. The family adventure is based on the animated series “Dora the Explorer” that started back in 2000. James Bobin, best known for The Muppets reimagining and Alice Through the Looking Glass, directs. Isabela Moner, recently seen in Instant Family, is the title character with a supporting cast including Eugenio Derbez, Michael Pena, and Eva Longoria. Danny Trejo and Benicio del Toro provided voice work

Paramount is hopeful that a pot of gold will exist with Latino audiences and kids who’ve made the TV show part of their programming over the last many years. The film is probably review proof and they’ve been mixed so far. This shouldn’t face much trouble having the largest debut of the five pictures arriving over the weekend. I’ll say high teens to low 20s is where this lands.

Dora and the Lost City of Gold opening weekend prediction: $19.7 million

For my The Kitchen prediction, click here:

The Kitchen Box Office Prediction

For my Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark prediction, click here:

Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark Box Office Prediction

For my The Art of Racing in the Rain prediction, click here:

The Art of Racing in the Rain Box Office Prediction

For my Brian Banks prediction, click here:

Brian Banks Box Office Prediction

August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (07/31): My Hobbs & Shaw estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million

It might be the last blockbuster of the summer 2019 season as Hobbs & Shaw debuts in the first frame of August. Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham headline the first spin-off of the Fast and Furious franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Hobbs & Shaw Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have it quite reaching the heights of the last three traditional Fast features, my low 80s projection revs it up for an easy and solid #1 debut, knocking The Lion King from its two week perch atop the charts.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood should slip to third after a fine start (more on that below) with mega hit holdovers Spider–Man: Far From Home and Toy Story 4 filling out the top five.

There is a potential wild card this weekend with The Farewell. The Awkwafina led comedy has been a winner with critics and performed quite well in limited release. It’s slated for nationwide expansion on Friday. However, without a theater count, I’m not totally comfortable placing it in the top five. That could change and I’ll update my post if so.

Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:

1. Hobbs & Shaw

Predicted Gross: $72.6 million

2. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

4. Spider–Man: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (July 26–28)

The Lion King, as anticipated, had no trouble staying put in first in weekend #2, though it did drop a bit further than many (including I) figured. The Disney smash grossed $76.6 million (down 60%) compared to my $86.5 million take. In ten days, King has brought in a ransom of $351 million.

Quentin Tarantino achieved the biggest traditional Friday to Sunday debut of his career with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. With $41 million (I was a touch lower at $38.7 million), the film capitalized on great reviews and the considerable star wattage of Leonardo Dicaprio, Brad Pitt, and Margot Robbie. It will be interesting to see how Hollywood legs out with a so-so B CinemaScore grade in future weekends.

Spider–Man: Far From Home was third with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) to bring its tally to $344 million.

Toy Story 4 had the four spot at $10.4 million, in line with my $10.8 million prediction. Total is $396 million.

I incorrectly had Crawl outside the high five, but it was fifth with $4 million to bring its three week earnings to $31 million.

Yesterday was sixth with $3 million (I went with $3.6 million) for an impressive $63 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Hobbs & Shaw Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (07/31): My estimate has dropped from $82.6 million to $72.6 million

Two of the most popular characters from the venerable Fast and Furious franchise get their  own spin-off (the first of the long running series) with Hobbs & Shaw next weekend. The action extravaganza comes with a reported $200 million budget and is headlined by the title characters respectively portrayed by Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham. David Leitch (co-director of John Wick and sole director of Atomic Blonde and Deadpool 2) is behind the camera. Costars include Idris Elba, Vanessa Kirby, and Helen Mirren (reprising her maternal role from 2017’s last entry The Fate of the Furious).

Despite the absence of Vin Diesel and other actors associated with the franchise that started 18 years ago, Hobbs & Shaw is likely to perform similarly to other pics in the canon. The largest opening was accomplished in 2015 with Furious 7 with a gross of $147 million. Tragically, part of the reason its start was significantly more than the others was due to the untimely death of Paul Walker and that picture representing his swan song. Follow-up Fate of the Furious two years later landed the second highest start of the eight features at $98 million.

This might fall a bit under those gaudy numbers and I think low to mid 80s is most feasible. That would put it in line or a just bit below the $86 million accomplished by Fast Five in 2011.

Hobbs & Shaw opening weekend prediction: $72.6 million

July 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Quentin Tarantino’s acclaimed Once Upon a Time in Hollywood with Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt is the sole fresh wide release this weekend. It looks to have a strong second place showing behind the sophomore frame of the record breaking The Lion King. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/16/once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood-box-office-prediction/

I have Mr. Tarantino’s ninth feature just barely topping his previous traditional weekend opening earner from a decade ago, Inglourious Basterds. My original estimate put it in the mid 40s, but I’ve had a gut feeling over the weekend that it won’t quite hit $40 million.

As for the behemoth King, I see a dip in the mid 50s range that would put it in the mid 80s. That’s similar to the drop experienced by last summer’s Incredibles 2.

Spider–Man: Far From Home looks to be third with Toy Story 4 in fourth position. I look for Yesterday to vault over Crawl to remain in fifth place.

And with that, my take on the late July weekend ahead:

1. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $86.5 million

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

3. Spider–Man: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $13 million

4. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

5. Yesterday

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (July 19–21)

Disney’s magical summer continued in two significant ways. The Lion King easily broke the all time July record with a roaring $191.7 million and that’s right in line with my $192.7 million projection. That captures the high mark previously set by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 by over $20 million.

Secondly, Avengers: Endgame took the #1 spot as the largest worldwide hit in history. At $2.7 billion, it has now edged out Avatar.

After two weeks on top, Spider–Man: Far From Home slipped to second with $21.2 million compared to my $22.4 million take. The three week tally is $319 million.

Toy Story 4 was third with $15.5 million as it elevated over my $13.2 million forecast. Total is $376 million with $400 million in its sights.

Crawl was fourth in weekend #2 with $6 million (I said $5.4 million) for $23 million in two weeks.

Yesterday rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it outside of that. The musical dramedy made $5 million for $57 million overall.

I had Aladdin holding stronger than it did at $5.5 million. It made $4 million for seventh place behind Stuber ($4.1 million). This Mouse Factory live action rendering is up to $340 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Box Office Prediction

Director Quentin Tarantino and star Leonardo DiCaprio both return to the silver screen for the first time in three and a half years with the release of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood next weekend. Set in the late 1960s, Mr. Tarantino’s latest casts DiCaprio as a washed up TV actor with Brad Pitt as his longtime stunt double. The sprawling supporting players include Margot Robbie as Sharon Tate, Emile Hirsch, Margaret Qualley, Timothy Olyphant, Austin Butler, Dakota Fanning, Bruce Dern, Kurt Russell, Damian Lewis, the late Luke Perry, Damon Herriman, Mike Moh, Zoe Bell, and Al Pacino.

When Hollywood premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May, it did so to reviews expected of its director. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 92% and it could attract Oscar attention. The teaming of DiCaprio (in his first role since his Oscar winning turn in The Revenant) and Pitt and the many Tarantino followers certainly have given this a high profile.

In order to achieve its maker’s largest all-time three day start, Hollywood would need to top the $38 million made by Inglourious Basterds ten years ago. However, that’s a bit of a misnomer. 2012’s Django Unchained opened over Christmas and took in $30 million from Friday to Sunday. Yet it made $63 million over its expanded holiday rollout.

The range here is pretty wide. It’s feasible that Hollywood doesn’t quite reach that high 30s threshold. I think it gets there with a just a few hundred thousand to spare.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood opening weekend prediction: $38.7 million

July 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Disney once again looks to dominate the box office this weekend as The Lion King stomps into theaters with Spider–Man: Far From Home and Toy Story 4 in the runner-up positions. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the Mouse Factory’s latest live-action rendering of an animated classic here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/07/09/the-lion-king-box-office-prediction/

The Lion King could be poised for a top ten all-time debut and my estimate puts in at #8, behind Black Panther but just ahead of Avengers: Age of Ultron.

Spider–Man, after two impressive weeks on top, should dip to second and lose around 50% of its volume with Toy Story 4 in third.

Crawl, after a fair opening, might experience a drop of over 50%. That could put in a battle for fourth with Aladdin. That Disney update may well return to the top five when considering its likely drive-in pairings with the weekend’s champ.

Here’s how I have the top five playing out:

1. The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $192.7 million

2. Spider–Man: Far From Home

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. Toy Story 4

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. Crawl

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (July 12–14)

The MCU, as anticipated, had no trouble staying atop the charts as Spider–Man: Far From Home took in $45.3 million in its sophomore frame. That’s in line with my $43.5 million projection as the sequel now stands at $274 million.

Toy Story 4 was second with $20.9 million (I said $20.7 million) for $346 million overall.

Crawl was an interesting case study. The alligator horror flick took in $12 million for third, a bit shy of my $14.2 million take. Considering its reported $13.5 million price tag, that’s a decent result. However, Paramount made a curious choice not screening it for critics and it ended up getting solid reviews. One wonders if the studio had let word of mouth percolate, if the numbers could have been higher.

The other newcomer was the Kumail Nanjiani/Dave Bautista comedy Stuber and it stalled in fourth with just $8.2 million compared to my $10.8 million prediction.

Yesterday rounded out the top five with $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) for $48 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…